Michael Duitsman
@duitsmanms.bsky.social
Research Associate at CNS/MIIS. Rocket propulsion and radiological security (usually not at the same time). Opinions my own. Faves/RTs ≠ endorsements
Where would that fit on the "Technical alignment chart"?
January 28, 2026 at 3:35 AM
Where would that fit on the "Technical alignment chart"?
We have, however, seen some BORTAC personnel with P320's in Minneapolis, although others appear to be carrying Glocks.
January 25, 2026 at 1:15 AM
We have, however, seen some BORTAC personnel with P320's in Minneapolis, although others appear to be carrying Glocks.
One interesting thing is that last year ICE switched from the P320 to the Glock 19. The P320 has a reputation as a sweet-shooting pistol with a good trigger... perhaps too good for poorly-trained recruits. It also could just be that Sig couldn't provide enough guns.
January 25, 2026 at 1:14 AM
One interesting thing is that last year ICE switched from the P320 to the Glock 19. The P320 has a reputation as a sweet-shooting pistol with a good trigger... perhaps too good for poorly-trained recruits. It also could just be that Sig couldn't provide enough guns.
True or not, the problem is such that many gun ranges and some competitions have banned the P320. Some police departments have switched away from the P320.
January 25, 2026 at 1:14 AM
True or not, the problem is such that many gun ranges and some competitions have banned the P320. Some police departments have switched away from the P320.
Sig claims the gun will not fire without the trigger pulled, which is technically true. The problem is that some examples can apparently fire if you hit or shift the slide with the trigger only partially pulled.
January 25, 2026 at 1:14 AM
Sig claims the gun will not fire without the trigger pulled, which is technically true. The problem is that some examples can apparently fire if you hit or shift the slide with the trigger only partially pulled.
I should not have to worry about whether a particular analyst or organization is making shit up to game a prediction market, but that's the world we live in now.
January 23, 2026 at 12:47 AM
I should not have to worry about whether a particular analyst or organization is making shit up to game a prediction market, but that's the world we live in now.
The open gamblification of real-world events, especially events that potentially involve the loss of human life, is deeply disturbing. The intentional manipulation of those gambling systems for profit is, I think, especially indicative of a profound moral emptiness in both operators and participants
January 23, 2026 at 12:47 AM
The open gamblification of real-world events, especially events that potentially involve the loss of human life, is deeply disturbing. The intentional manipulation of those gambling systems for profit is, I think, especially indicative of a profound moral emptiness in both operators and participants
We do what we can. Attend protests. Help our neighbors. Call our congresscritters.
Other than that, I don't know. Have a model train.
Other than that, I don't know. Have a model train.
January 20, 2026 at 8:50 PM
We do what we can. Attend protests. Help our neighbors. Call our congresscritters.
Other than that, I don't know. Have a model train.
Other than that, I don't know. Have a model train.
Working in NatSec while the President and his viziers burn the entire basis of US national security to the ground out of spite feels really, truly depressing.
And that on top of everything else! This administration is hell-bent on imposing a fundamentally stupid, disgusting, and evil future upon us
And that on top of everything else! This administration is hell-bent on imposing a fundamentally stupid, disgusting, and evil future upon us
January 20, 2026 at 8:50 PM
Working in NatSec while the President and his viziers burn the entire basis of US national security to the ground out of spite feels really, truly depressing.
And that on top of everything else! This administration is hell-bent on imposing a fundamentally stupid, disgusting, and evil future upon us
And that on top of everything else! This administration is hell-bent on imposing a fundamentally stupid, disgusting, and evil future upon us
Marklin does something like that with glass bottles, but corks instead of bottlecaps.
January 16, 2026 at 12:15 AM
Marklin does something like that with glass bottles, but corks instead of bottlecaps.
12/12 There are admittedly a lot of assumptions here, and I welcome any corrections or feedback.
January 14, 2026 at 7:37 PM
12/12 There are admittedly a lot of assumptions here, and I welcome any corrections or feedback.
11/12 Given that Russia probably doesn't want us to know what strategic operations look like, if some of these communications can instead be performed via landline, there is additional incentive for Russia to use established bases (like Kapustin Yar) for Oreshnik launches.
January 14, 2026 at 7:37 PM
11/12 Given that Russia probably doesn't want us to know what strategic operations look like, if some of these communications can instead be performed via landline, there is additional incentive for Russia to use established bases (like Kapustin Yar) for Oreshnik launches.
10/12 Given that Yars and Oreshnik units probably share the same communications equipment, the resemblance extends to the electromagnetic spectrum. Observing Oreshnik launches will provide insight into Yars operations (and vice versa), even if the comms are encrypted.
January 14, 2026 at 7:37 PM
10/12 Given that Yars and Oreshnik units probably share the same communications equipment, the resemblance extends to the electromagnetic spectrum. Observing Oreshnik launches will provide insight into Yars operations (and vice versa), even if the comms are encrypted.
9/12 Another potential reason is the units themselves. Conventionally-armed Oreshnik operations are probably very similar to Yars operations, minus any steps specifically related to nuclear warheads.
January 14, 2026 at 7:37 PM
9/12 Another potential reason is the units themselves. Conventionally-armed Oreshnik operations are probably very similar to Yars operations, minus any steps specifically related to nuclear warheads.
8/12 This is one potential reason for continuing to launch Oreshnik out of Kapustin Yar. A unit based there has access to both the airfield (for couriered data) and encrypted/landline communications networks.
January 14, 2026 at 7:37 PM
8/12 This is one potential reason for continuing to launch Oreshnik out of Kapustin Yar. A unit based there has access to both the airfield (for couriered data) and encrypted/landline communications networks.
7/12 This is a limitation that Oreshnik operations must be planned around. Since Oreshnik can't rapidly add new targets, we see it used (like a strategic system) against static, high-value targets.
January 14, 2026 at 7:37 PM
7/12 This is a limitation that Oreshnik operations must be planned around. Since Oreshnik can't rapidly add new targets, we see it used (like a strategic system) against static, high-value targets.
6/12 The same is almost certainly true for Yars and Oreshnik. A mobile IRBM/ICBM unit is very unlikely to have the computational power needed to generate new guidance data.
January 14, 2026 at 7:37 PM
6/12 The same is almost certainly true for Yars and Oreshnik. A mobile IRBM/ICBM unit is very unlikely to have the computational power needed to generate new guidance data.
5/12 A computer needs to perform fancy number-crunching to create new guidance data. That data needs to be brought to the silo or LCC, either transmitted electronically or by courier, and then the data is loaded into the missile.
January 14, 2026 at 7:37 PM
5/12 A computer needs to perform fancy number-crunching to create new guidance data. That data needs to be brought to the silo or LCC, either transmitted electronically or by courier, and then the data is loaded into the missile.
4/12 Minuteman III missiles each hold a number of preloaded target sets they can fire at. Changing between target sets before launch is essentially instantaneous. Adding a new target, however, is time-consuming.
January 14, 2026 at 7:37 PM
4/12 Minuteman III missiles each hold a number of preloaded target sets they can fire at. Changing between target sets before launch is essentially instantaneous. Adding a new target, however, is time-consuming.
3/12 The Oreshnik guidance system is probably a close derivative of the Yars. If Yars is anything like current-generation Minuteman, Oreshnik's targeting capabilities are probably not very dynamic.
January 14, 2026 at 7:37 PM
3/12 The Oreshnik guidance system is probably a close derivative of the Yars. If Yars is anything like current-generation Minuteman, Oreshnik's targeting capabilities are probably not very dynamic.