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Duncan Lamont

@duncanlamont2.bsky.social

2.9K followers 1.3K following 3.5K posts

I post cool charts about markets and investing. Scottish and into running. Head of Strategic Research @Schroders. Not investment advice

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · May 15

⚠️I’ve written a two-footed studs-up challenge of an article about something I feel strongly about:

the way we talk about risk is all wrong

www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/int...

Why cash is riskier than stock market investing

We need an entire rethink of how we talk about risk.

www.schroders.com

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 7h

It’s not a requirement on Nasdaq. E.g. for biotech

imagine a company researching new medicines. It has no revenues because it’s at the research stage. It’s raised money from investors to pay for that research, and investors hope they’ll win big if it makes a discovery

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 8h

Nae bother!

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 8h

I wouldn’t overstate the broader economic risks here. Lots of these will be biotech companies etc rather than big employers

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 10h

Yolonomics indeed

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 10h

It’s based on the constituent list of the Nasdaq composite so I guess it would

Good point

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 10h

Chart is from the latest Schroders Equity Lens chart pack www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/int...

www.schroders.com

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 10h

This is the way youtu.be/BzAdXyPYKQo

Silicon Valley No Revenue | Radio On Internet

YouTube video by yate50

youtu.be

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 10h

But in answer to your original question, imagine a company researching new medicines. It has no revenues because it’s at the research stage. So yes, it’s raised money from investors to pay for that research, and investors hope they’ll win big if it makes a discovery

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 11h

Or should we see it as a good thing that public market investors are able to access to pre-revenue, earlier-stage companies, not just the more mature businesses we see on the traditional markets?

You can certainly argue that but oh my word, you need to be properly on it with your company research

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 11h

Stronger wording than I expected from a news account!

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 11h

This hilarious video probably does it better than I could youtu.be/BzAdXyPYKQo

Silicon Valley No Revenue | Radio On Internet

YouTube video by yate50

youtu.be

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 11h

There are over 3,000 companies on Nasdaq, many of which are tiny and hugely speculative plays. Many also have next to zero liquidity

Even accepting that most investors will have 0% of their money invested in the overwhelming majority of these companies, I still think this is quite the trend

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 11h

Ok but it’s even weirder as you can argue we’re not in a bubble if you’re only interested in profitable companies

bsky.app/profile/dunc...

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 1d

A divided US stock market: Tech cos with no revenues or no profits are flying, as are the cash and profit machines that are the Magnificent-7.

The rest of the stockmarket has been left in their shade

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 11h

🫣 Profits are for wimps. Revenues are for losers. Ideas sell, not fundamentals

Over half the Nasdaq market is loss making. About 1-in-8 companies have no revenues

There are a lot more in these camps than in the past

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 1d

Some but not all. I haven’t been down the full list

It’s interesting as I shared a chart recently which showed that biotech VC financing has dried up as it’s all going into AI

Struck me as odd as my not particularly researched view is that AI should improve biotech odds of success

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 1d

Note: these are averages, covering a v.wide range of outcomes

Meme stock speculative trading at the risky end of the market, barbelled with the mega caps.

There's speculation in both trades but the current fundamentals couldn't be more different

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 1d

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 1d

I’d have panic attacks! Or do you somehow get used to it?

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 2d

I’ll accept a doggy bag

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 4d

Love it

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 5d

Is that yours?!

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 5d

🤣

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 5d

Genuinely can’t remember. So I’ll say yeah

Will see if my mum still has it in the loft somewhere

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 5d

Genuine lol

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 5d

Niche knowledge!