Anyone calling for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia should first be informed of its extensive history of lies and broken treaties. Economists for Ukraine has compiled proven examples of these Russian…

The “Thriving in Economics” e-book series (pdf format) is a crowdsourced collection of bite-sized advice on almost everything related to a PhD and career in economics, featuring a variety of new and…

When there is no power there is no internet for a large number of people. Economists for Ukraine is coordinating the deployment of an emergency internet

Using short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the region. Professional forecasters predicted a dramatic increase in macroeconomic uncertainty, significant spillover effects, some hysteresis effects as well as a changing nature of business cycles. We also use the war shock to study how professional forecasters acquire and process information. Our results point to state dependence as well as an important role of forward information in shaping macroeconomic outlook of professional forecasters.

Anyone calling for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia should first be informed of its extensive history of lies and broken treaties. Economists for Ukraine has compiled proven examples of these Russian…

Economists for Ukraine has compiled a repository of research papers on topics related to Russia’s war on Ukraine. To submit a paper that’s not on our list, please fill out this form.

Winter is the most challenging time in Ukraine: Russian attacks damage power supply, leaving vulnerable populations in the dark, cold and vulnerable.

To reduce Russia's funding for its Ukraine invasion, Western governments imposed, after a delay, a price ceiling on Russian seaborne oil exports utilizing Western services. To evade that ceiling, Russia developed a "shadow fleet" using no such services. We simulate a calibrated model driven by this fleet's expansion to assess various sanctions. Mainly, sanctions-from a price ceiling to its extreme service ban version-significantly reduce the present value of Russia's profits. However, tighter price caps will not necessarily harm Russia if they raise the world price. Shortening the delay between sanctions announcement and implementation can harm Russia more.

Anyone calling for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia should first be informed of its extensive history of lies and broken treaties. Economists for Ukraine has compiled proven examples of these Russian…

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Economists for Ukraine are coordinating an initiative to help ship life-saving medical aid to the front lines in Ukraine.

On February 24, 2022, as Russia invaded, the National Bank of Ukraine switched from a flexible to a fixed exchange rate regime. Was this policy response optimal? To answer this, we develop an open-economy model with both nominal rigidities and frictions in borrowing on international financial markets. We find that the carefully calibrated model can rationalize the NBU's decision: the optimal response to small shocks is to allow exchange rate flexibility, whereas in response to large shocks-such as an invasion-currency depreciation is suboptimal. For robustness, we consider tradable endowment, risk-premium, and non-tradable supply shocks, and add subsistence consumption.

Anyone calling for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia should first be informed of its extensive history of lies and broken treaties. Economists for Ukraine has compiled proven examples of these Russian…

Much has been written regarding the issue of corruption in Ukraine, which is certainly a real and pressing problem. Far fewer resources provide information about Ukraine's significant progress in…

Economists for Ukraine are coordinating an initiative to help ship life-saving medical aid to the front lines in Ukraine.

I propose partial-equilibrium models that describe the dynamics of global wheat and corn markets. These models extend the classic competitive storage framework by incorporating nonstationary variables. They are calibrated using data from Ukraine and key importing and exporting countries. The models enable the endogenous estimation of price trends, based on the observed movements in the underlying variables. This framework provides insights into how involuntary reductions in Ukraine's global market presence, triggered by russia's invasion, could have affected trend prices.

We talk to experts about a Bay Area organization's project to reconstruct a Ukrainian university and the challenges the nation faces as it seeks to rebuild while still at war.