<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6D3y-SjQXmxxCltJK_DcT0eUBbDo1WCK6Z9y_fPSOYWoCgAjGY7q9VRLihoInb87UrdQqxJ3P_0bypkgqbOF77MD2BhopAXlHxv_TbBponv4KrAc_cgUvU921TfTwvbfq05xjfVx7ymBmwMUoXR-ZFtYsXz8k7bcwp2T-T5kj_WC7fNFaYC-P/s399/RatesAug302023.PNG"><img alt="Mortgage Rates" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6D3y-SjQXmxxCltJK_DcT0eUBbDo1WCK6Z9y_fPSOYWoCgAjGY7q9VRLihoInb87UrdQqxJ3P_0bypkgqbOF77MD2BhopAXlHxv_TbBponv4KrAc_cgUvU921TfTwvbfq05xjfVx7ymBmwMUoXR-ZFtYsXz8k7bcwp2T-T5kj_WC7fNFaYC-P/s320/RatesAug302023.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Note: Mortgage rates are from <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/">MortgageNewsDaily.com</a> and are for top tier scenarios.<br /> <br /> Thursday:<br /> • At 8:30 AM ET, The <b>initial weekly unemployment claims</b> report will be released.&nbsp; The consensus is for 235 thousand initial claims, up from 230 thousand last week.<br /> <br /> • At 8:30 AM, <b>Personal Income and Outlays, July 2023</b>. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.7% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.&nbsp; PCE prices are expected to be up 3.3% YoY, and core PCE prices up 4.2% YoY.<br /> <br /> • At 9:45 AM, <b>Chicago Purchasing Managers Index</b> for August.

The DOL <a href="https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf">reported</a>:<br /> <blockquote> In the week ending August 26, the advance figure for <b>seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000</b>, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 230,000 to 232,000. The 4-week moving average was 237,500, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 236,750 to 237,250. <br /> <span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.<br /> <br /> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSKyi61xOlecwkqxHEUZ3coRH8C4iYro1Yp2eiZvt8_giszB7UcZME5kmnVjCHTr6vohcILztD7K8pZNC3vPMaJEqZbsN1oAaJVqSPcN1gjED42fVSS1jRN-uRWwzb3zb_iTJ1Xg_mFD7l0F7WD_M54iDP2_ZRbEXCLBsvZGXKYSQFI6dVSvsw/s1080/WeeklyClaimsAug312023.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSKyi61xOlecwkqxHEUZ3coRH8C4iYro1Yp2eiZvt8_giszB7UcZME5kmnVjCHTr6vohcILztD7K8pZNC3vPMaJEqZbsN1oAaJVqSPcN1gjED42fVSS1jRN-uRWwzb3zb_iTJ1Xg_mFD7l0F7WD_M54iDP2_ZRbEXCLBsvZGXKYSQFI6dVSvsw/s320/WeeklyClaimsAug312023.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br /> <br /> The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 237,500.<br /> <br /> The previous week was revised up.<br /> <br /> Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.

The BEA released the <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2023">Personal Income and Outlays</a> report for July: <br /> <blockquote><b>Personal income increased $45.0 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in July</b>, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $7.3 billion (less than 0.1 percent) and <b>personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $144.6 billion (0.8 percent)</b>.<br /> <br /> The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in July and real PCE increased 0.6 percent; goods increased 0.9 percent and services increased 0.4 percent.<br /> <span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote> The <b>July PCE price index increased 3.3 percent year-over-year (YoY)</b>, up from 3.0 percent YoY in June, and down from the recent peak of 7.0 percent in June 2022.<div><br /></div><div><b>The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 4.2 percent YoY</b>, up from 4.1 percent in June, and down from the recent peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022.<br /> <br /> The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through July 2023 (2012 dollars). <span style="font-size: 85%;">Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change</span>.<br /> <br /> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh88U9hCFUw40DT2FgVmPo1RTLLm29C4KGpxVloOGjM3NW_45HRHWmVsIzxrv2JWNEHHqdNoOnKpYGZj3EjuetE0T9CywmFO4iG-ZVUSWRT2VcdiugjRIamgZwXouuwGlHbjEsKoERWs9N_idP1KZFEZOPiPQLDxactUtiQ5qIdvWdOlV6pVlMu/s1201/PCEJuly20223.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Personal Consumption Expenditures" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh88U9hCFUw40DT2FgVmPo1RTLLm29C4KGpxVloOGjM3NW_45HRHWmVsIzxrv2JWNEHHqdNoOnKpYGZj3EjuetE0T9CywmFO4iG-ZVUSWRT2VcdiugjRIamgZwXouuwGlHbjEsKoERWs9N_idP1KZFEZOPiPQLDxactUtiQ5qIdvWdOlV6pVlMu/s320/PCEJuly20223.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" width="320" /></a> <i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br /> <br /> The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.<br /> <br /> Personal income was slightly below expectations, and PCE was slightly above expectations.</div><div><br /></div><div>Inflation was at expectations.</div>

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through July 2023.<br /> <br /> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9HZxAT7XjY8pNXr7Z67k5hmUwZysSWAR1aHNEyRnq3TPefblGndA_9e0Y78NKAl18Ytw8_mB9Gl4C5F-GwAfeQRB7is9Cz7whzfxAp8GM-kCwBTm_ue1HOwae8F0ikc2kKo-JmyxK_M3W4hQtNlDvkY9nY46cjLX-Ojp7BnjE96WAA2hMPUU-/s1117/ShelterPCEJuly2023.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Shelter" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9HZxAT7XjY8pNXr7Z67k5hmUwZysSWAR1aHNEyRnq3TPefblGndA_9e0Y78NKAl18Ytw8_mB9Gl4C5F-GwAfeQRB7is9Cz7whzfxAp8GM-kCwBTm_ue1HOwae8F0ikc2kKo-JmyxK_M3W4hQtNlDvkY9nY46cjLX-Ojp7BnjE96WAA2hMPUU-/s320/ShelterPCEJuly2023.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>CPI Shelter was up 7.7% year-over-year in July, down from 7.8% in June, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.<div><br /></div><div><b>Housing (PCE) was up 7.8% YoY in July</b>, down from 8.0% in June, and down from the cycle peak of 8.4% in April 2023.<br /> <br /> Since asking rents are <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-rents-negative-year-over-year">slightly negative year-over-year</a>,&nbsp;these measures will slow sharply in coming months.</div>

<a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/data/">Realtor.com</a> has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Hannah Jones: <a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-aug-26-2023/">Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Aug 26, 2023</a><blockquote>• <b>Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 5.9%</b>. This past week marked the 10th consecutive decline in the number of homes actively for sale compared to the prior year, however the gap narrowed for the fourth week in a row.<br /> <br /> • <b>New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 8.8% from one year ago</b>. For 60 weeks, there have been fewer newly listed homes compared to the same time one year ago. This gap has been shrinking, but reversed trend this week. This week’s data shows a 3.1 percentage point widening compared to last week. </blockquote><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1H4cSU45bD0NbzACuvYvQnoy8WIMBwzBZIxP9zYyTGI906PuUdBam5hGnqCKwQTotBduKdbkwQHcZ1WmIMnxRt-Ls_IeBR0nM2WZOHymwNb6QFc6vjVVid_VWs2IGIkZIEstEg1AhHh8Gy3KAW0eBeIaK5K3t05z3n7UZqxtb40RRhdiq5SG9/s1020/RealtorAug312023.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Realtor YoY Active Listings" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1H4cSU45bD0NbzACuvYvQnoy8WIMBwzBZIxP9zYyTGI906PuUdBam5hGnqCKwQTotBduKdbkwQHcZ1WmIMnxRt-Ls_IeBR0nM2WZOHymwNb6QFc6vjVVid_VWs2IGIkZIEstEg1AhHh8Gy3KAW0eBeIaK5K3t05z3n7UZqxtb40RRhdiq5SG9/s320/RealtorAug312023.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to <a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/data/">realtor.com</a>.&nbsp;<br /> <br />Inventory was down 7.2% year-over-year - this was the tenth consecutive week with a YoY decrease following 58 consecutive weeks with a YoY increase in inventory.&nbsp;&nbsp;<div><br /></div><div>Inventory is still up from the record lows in the 2nd half of 2021 and early 2022, and <b>it is unlikely we will see new record lows by this measure this year</b>.</div>

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-rents-down-12-year-over-year">Asking Rents Down 1.2% Year-over-year</a><br /> <br />A brief excerpt: <blockquote>Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September 2021: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/household-formation-drives-housing">Household Formation Drives Housing Demand</a>).<br /> <br /> The surge in household formation has been confirmed (mostly due to work-from-home), and this also led to the supposition that household formation would slow sharply in 2023 (mostly confirmed) and that asking rents might decrease in 2023 on a year-over-year basis (now flat year-over-year).<br /> ...<br /> Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. Most of these measures are through July 2023, except CoreLogic is through June and Apartment List is through August 2023.<br /> ...<br /> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2FRqC5gq5TMwAE-WTX751VI3dwb2nkj8w7m56YpR7SaMYtKtve5AoaesjRUKYuQ2rQgp-QBJ7ESHzGLqyssTSDjr0-Ijy8suq46NgQDlOrmF--eJ0qxS0XE0g7kB-vhRp2sUNjOnQuW96giZIlcYoS5dg17XtfH9XG0O3O4AMsVU4aigVh-tn/s1169/RentYoYJuly2023.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Case-Shiller House Prices Indices" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2FRqC5gq5TMwAE-WTX751VI3dwb2nkj8w7m56YpR7SaMYtKtve5AoaesjRUKYuQ2rQgp-QBJ7ESHzGLqyssTSDjr0-Ijy8suq46NgQDlOrmF--eJ0qxS0XE0g7kB-vhRp2sUNjOnQuW96giZIlcYoS5dg17XtfH9XG0O3O4AMsVU4aigVh-tn/s320/RentYoYJuly2023.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>The CoreLogic measure is up 3.3% YoY in June, down from 3.4% in May, and down from a peak of 13.9% in April 2022.<br /> <br /> The Zillow measure is up 3.6% YoY in July, down from 4.1% YoY in June, and down from a peak of 16.2% YoY in March 2022.<br /> <br /> The ApartmentList measure is down 1.2% YoY as of August, down from -0.8% in June, and down from a peak of 18.1% YoY November 2021.<br /> ...<br /> With slow household formation, more supply coming on the market and a rising vacancy rate, rents will be under pressure all year. See: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/forecast-multifamily-starts-will">Forecast: Multifamily Starts will Decline Sharply</a></blockquote>There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/">https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/</a>

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:<br /> <blockquote>"We estimate <b>nonfarm payrolls rose by 149k in August (mom sa)</b>, below consensus of +170k. ... our forecast embeds a 26k one-time drag from the combination of Hollywood worker strikes (-18k) and Yellow trucking layoffs (-8k) ... We estimate that <b>the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5%</b>—in line with consensus—reflecting a modest rise in household employment and unchanged labor force participation (at 62.6%)."<br /> <span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>

<p>Before becoming Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni was one of the most strident voices on migration in the European Union. As an opposition politician, she warned darkly of efforts to substitute native Italians with ethnic minorities and promised to put in place a naval blockade to stop migrants crossing the Mediterranean. During her time in office, she has taken [&#8230;]</p> <p>The post <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/08/italy-fact-of-the-day-9.html" rel="nofollow">Italy fact of the day</a> appeared first on <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com" rel="nofollow">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>

<p>Here is the press release and more detail, I thank Schmidt Futures and Eddie Mandhry for their support, and there is a parallel initiative led by David Deming and Heidi Williams, focusing on the research side of talent identification (for that do not apply to Mercatus/EV).  Applications on the practitioner side for finding and developing [&#8230;]</p> <p>The post <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/08/new-emergent-ventures-vertical-supports-talent-identification-projects.html" rel="nofollow">New Emergent Ventures Vertical Supports Talent Identification Projects</a> appeared first on <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com" rel="nofollow">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>

<p>1. Scott Alexander defends the notion of automaticity. 2. Well, the Rolling Stones needed a bass player and a drummer&#8230; They have to cut &#8220;I Wanna&#8217; Be Your Man,&#8221; right? 3. &#8220;Specifically, we show that men who post often on social media are seen as feminine, a phenomenon we refer to as the “frequent-posting femininity [&#8230;]</p> <p>The post <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/08/thursday-assorted-links-419.html" rel="nofollow">Thursday assorted links</a> appeared first on <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com" rel="nofollow">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>

<p>Are these the &#8220;animal spirits&#8221; they like to talk about?  And is this also evidence of the growing politicization of the U.S. economy?: We document political sentiment effects on US inventors. Democratic inventors are more likely to patent (relative to Republicans) after the 2008 election of Obama but less likely after the 2016 election of [&#8230;]</p> <p>The post <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/08/political-sentiment-and-innovation.html" rel="nofollow">Political Sentiment and Innovation</a> appeared first on <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com" rel="nofollow">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>

<p>It is not disputed that current AI is bringing more intelligence into the world, with more to follow yet.  Of course not everyone believes that augmentation is a good thing, or will be a good thing if we remain on our current path. To continue in aggregative terms, if you think &#8220;more intelligence&#8221; will be [&#8230;]</p> <p>The post <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/08/an-aggregate-bayesian-approach-to-more-artificial-intelligence.html" rel="nofollow">An aggregate Bayesian approach to more (artificial) intelligence?</a> appeared first on <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com" rel="nofollow">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>

<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBm60u5utDpb-zHJwNJKcXECfy1TmLI6lT7fbPrum0iJ3hQfm7vhVJP89FZsHy6_m2cJX2Zwx9hc25hlaygjQJj9xC5ywxvNhh7EXmr56IMKs76ZjBtpD5JgmVHnANStR3sQba8b_s-weHJQEDY2sMfSOozpAgZaeAlGUDW8YjallBvorsLFkV/s396/RatesAug292023.PNG"><img alt="Mortgage Rates" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBm60u5utDpb-zHJwNJKcXECfy1TmLI6lT7fbPrum0iJ3hQfm7vhVJP89FZsHy6_m2cJX2Zwx9hc25hlaygjQJj9xC5ywxvNhh7EXmr56IMKs76ZjBtpD5JgmVHnANStR3sQba8b_s-weHJQEDY2sMfSOozpAgZaeAlGUDW8YjallBvorsLFkV/s320/RatesAug292023.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Note: Mortgage rates are from <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/">MortgageNewsDaily.com</a> and are for top tier scenarios.<br /> <br /> Wednesday:<br /> • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the <b>mortgage purchase applications index</b>.<br /> <br /> • At 8:15 AM, The <b>ADP Employment Report</b> for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).<br /> <br /> • At 8:30 AM, <b>Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2023 (second estimate)</b>. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.4% annualized in Q2, unchanged from the advance estimate of 2.4% in Q2.<br /> <br /> • At 10:00 AM, <b>Pending Home Sales Index</b> for July. The consensus is for a 0.8% decrease in the index.

From the MBA: <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom">Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey</a><blockquote> Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 25, 2023.<br /> <br /> The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week and was 28 percent lower than the same week one year ago. <b>The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier</b>. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 27 percent lower than the same week one year ago.<br /> <br /> “Mortgage rates were mostly unchanged last week, with the 30-year fixed rate remaining at 7.31 percent – the highest since December 2000. Treasury yields peaked early in the week and did move lower by the end, which may have spurred some activity,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Mortgage applications for home purchases and refinances increased for the first time in five weeks but remained at low levels. Purchase applications increased but were still 27 percent lower than a year ago, as elevated mortgage rates and tight housing inventory continue to weigh on home buying activity.”<br /> ...<br /> The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) remained unchanged at 7.31 percent, with points decreasing to 0.73 from 0.78 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.<br /> <span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWH2FK932usU1A3ta90xtJKG4VJCHLmJTYcgNKlnxodtMr-YQXJOfGelSWIGeJDkJlI936Lo-bqnEiiNEtWYjAEawEtPA3cQ3_KoklDeyHwk6VKsLxdlKaKgTO9kxkwpJd4oa947YaXVKX3YdX7Ga4rP6NR-AMKcUnePDM5H374308uBwh3x-K/s1089/MBAAug302023.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Mortgage Purchase Index" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWH2FK932usU1A3ta90xtJKG4VJCHLmJTYcgNKlnxodtMr-YQXJOfGelSWIGeJDkJlI936Lo-bqnEiiNEtWYjAEawEtPA3cQ3_KoklDeyHwk6VKsLxdlKaKgTO9kxkwpJd4oa947YaXVKX3YdX7Ga4rP6NR-AMKcUnePDM5H374308uBwh3x-K/s320/MBAAug302023.PNG" style="border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br /> <br />The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.<br /> <br /> According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 27% year-over-year unadjusted.&nbsp;&nbsp;<div><b><br /></b></div><div>Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).&nbsp; <b>Last week was the lowest level since 1995!<br /></b><br /></div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUimvw0Zd0BAi2K3yuv4k6nJ-Om1VUfIhb2_36TcRNV30n64uudQ3K3QHv16t-zBXFeBvSeY1FGXLdpitpwaijz3F_nE7XPZKyfRiBl6j0w7EoqE3Ib5oasMceHdyqckoE2Uqb0-rLWjnmkkYdBU4-shJLcXC7KCKw9yLPEZu2uIyTinc_6BZ_/s1093/MBARefiAug302023.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Mortgage Refinance Index" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUimvw0Zd0BAi2K3yuv4k6nJ-Om1VUfIhb2_36TcRNV30n64uudQ3K3QHv16t-zBXFeBvSeY1FGXLdpitpwaijz3F_nE7XPZKyfRiBl6j0w7EoqE3Ib5oasMceHdyqckoE2Uqb0-rLWjnmkkYdBU4-shJLcXC7KCKw9yLPEZu2uIyTinc_6BZ_/s320/MBARefiAug302023.PNG" style="border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><div>The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.<br /> <br /><div>With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022 - and has mostly flat lined at a low level since then.</div></div>

From ADP: <a href="https://adpemploymentreport.com/">ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 177,000 Jobs in August; Annual Pay was Up 5.9%</a><blockquote><b>Private sector employment increased by 177,000 jobs in August</b> and annual pay was up 5.9 percent year-over-year, according to the August ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).<br /> ...<br /> “This month's numbers are consistent with the pace of job creation before the pandemic,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “After two years of exceptional gains tied to the recovery, we're moving toward more sustainable growth in pay and employment as the economic effects of the pandemic recede.”<br /> <span style="font-size: x-small;"> emphasis added</span></blockquote>This was below the consensus forecast of 194,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 187 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in August.

From the BEA: <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2023-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits">Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2023 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary)</a><blockquote><b>Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023</b>, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.<br /> <br /> The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.4 percent (refer to "Updates to GDP"). The updated estimates primarily reflected <b>downward revisions to private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment</b> that were partly offset by an upward revision to state and local government spending.<br /> <br /> The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending that were partly offset by decreases in exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.<br /> <span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote> Here is a <a href="https://apps.bea.gov/national/pdf/revision_information/rev1_2q23_2nd.pdf">Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates</a>. PCE growth was revised up from 1.6% to 1.7%. Residential investment was revised up from -4.2% to -3.6%.

From the NAR: <a href="https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-elevated-0-9-in-july-marking-second-consecutive-monthly-increase">Pending Home Sales Elevated 0.9% in July, Marking Second Consecutive Monthly Increase</a><br /> <blockquote><b>Pending home sales increased 0.9% in July</b> – rising for the second consecutive month – according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast and Midwest posted monthly losses, while sales in the South and West grew. All four U.S. regions saw year-over-year declines in transactions.<br /> <br /> The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – rose 0.9% to 77.6 in July. <b>Year over year, pending transactions fell by 14.0%</b>. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.<br /> <br /> "The small gain in contract signings shows the potential for further increases in light of the fact that many people have lost out on multiple home buying offers," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Jobs are being added and, thereby, enlarging the pool of prospective home buyers. However, rising mortgage rates and limited inventory have temporarily hindered the possibility of buying for many."<br /> ...<br /> The Northeast PHSI shrank 5.8% from last month to 63.2, a decrease of 20.2% from July 2022. The Midwest index fell 0.4% to 77.5 in July, down 16.0% from one year ago.<br /> <br /> The South PHSI lifted 2.0% to 95.3 in July, declining 10.9% from the prior year. The West index improved 6.2% in July to 61.3, dropping 12.8% from July 2022.<br /> <span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>This above expectations of a 0.8% decrease for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in August and September.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-39-f02">Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6% below recent peak</a><br /> <br /> Excerpt: <blockquote>It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak. In the <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shiller-national-house-price-9a1">June Case-Shiller house price index released</a> yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006.&nbsp;However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 9% above the bubble peak&nbsp;(and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).&nbsp; The composite 20, in real terms, is 1% below the bubble peak.<br /> <br /> People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms.&nbsp; As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be $359,000 today adjusted for inflation (79.5% increase).&nbsp; That is why the second graph below is important - this shows&nbsp;"real" prices.<br /> <br /><b> The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index.</b> The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index. </blockquote><div>There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/">https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/</a></div>

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: <a href="https://assets.simpleviewcms.com/simpleview/image/upload/v1/clients/lasvegas/ES_Jul_2023_2f935ef9-8d39-4144-8421-4f99ab4aa2ed.pdf">July 2023 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics</a><br /> <blockquote>With the highest July Occupancy since before the pandemic, Las Vegas visitation surpassed 3.5M visitors, approximately 1% ahead of last July.<br /> <br /> Overall hotel occupancy reached 85.2% for the month (+1.8 pts YoY) as Weekend occupancy reaching 92.6% (+1.5 pts YoY), and Midweek occupancy reached 82.2%, surpassing last July by 3.1 pts.<br /> <br /> With YoY growth stabilizing after the dramatic post‐pandemic surges last year, ADR reached $163, +1.7% YoY while RevPAR reached $139, +3.9% YoY.</blockquote> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcmLRpIpN-Ym6m7B4OQkh6KBHQp8Tcvgd2fvoo94tM7BkQ5NxN-RX3n6xjGcWI73cTqAyrGzLDHcwEjZt-t1DXZWv1NlTFwJmsASCFyHOh3ZmCuz7hJTyxX_gbed5ye0CPhrMOf4oGJwabAd0EBOaIYQseT64NIZXtdDwEF4Hoe6T9ZdMOE0H5/s1031/VegasVisitorJuly2023.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" width="500"><img alt="Las Vegas Visitor Traffic" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcmLRpIpN-Ym6m7B4OQkh6KBHQp8Tcvgd2fvoo94tM7BkQ5NxN-RX3n6xjGcWI73cTqAyrGzLDHcwEjZt-t1DXZWv1NlTFwJmsASCFyHOh3ZmCuz7hJTyxX_gbed5ye0CPhrMOf4oGJwabAd0EBOaIYQseT64NIZXtdDwEF4Hoe6T9ZdMOE0H5/s320/VegasVisitorJuly2023.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a> <i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i> <br /> <br /> The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (light blue), 2021 (purple), 2022 (orange), and 2023 (red).<br /> <br />Visitor traffic was up 1.0% compared to last July.<div><br /></div><div>Visitor traffic was down 4.3% compared to the same month in 2019.<div><br /></div><div> The second graph shows convention traffic.<br /> <br /> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCx4YIQebA7onYHtDAiUzB_RIKJ-qs_jNzjRBAgnz9-no7BFt9iQaUnPzxBH0X1g8FORQBgdQhHSOtZKzPNWWBiSVIqJSZA3kj3DbBYSFrKbpcRmvi2ttOu01d_oPSFU51764MaheRdrJVj-vLv_o2RYuJH95hIbF8F-MxZwCdZ87wmKgkR2Eg/s1037/VegasConventionJuly2023.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" width="500"><img alt="Las Vegas Visitor Traffic" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCx4YIQebA7onYHtDAiUzB_RIKJ-qs_jNzjRBAgnz9-no7BFt9iQaUnPzxBH0X1g8FORQBgdQhHSOtZKzPNWWBiSVIqJSZA3kj3DbBYSFrKbpcRmvi2ttOu01d_oPSFU51764MaheRdrJVj-vLv_o2RYuJH95hIbF8F-MxZwCdZ87wmKgkR2Eg/s320/VegasConventionJuly2023.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a></div>Convention traffic was down 16.8% compared to July 2022, and down 45.8% compared to July 2019.<div><br />Note: There was almost no convention traffic from April 2020 through May 2021.</div></div>

<p>R.C. Zaehner, Concordant Discord: The Interdependence of Faiths Being the Gifford Lectures on Natural Religion Delivered at St. Andrews in 1967-1969.  Half of this volume is amazing, the other half meandering.  The best parts are on Hinduism and Buddhism, and how they can best be understood in relation to Western religions.  Zaehner has an amazing [&#8230;]</p> <p>The post <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/08/what-ive-been-reading-241.html" rel="nofollow">What I&#8217;ve been reading</a> appeared first on <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com" rel="nofollow">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>

<p>The author is James Pethokoukis, and the subtitle is How to Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised. All excellent stuff&#8230;due out October 3rd&#8230;</p> <p>The post <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/08/the-conservative-futurist.html" rel="nofollow">*The Conservative Futurist*</a> appeared first on <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com" rel="nofollow">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>

<p>1. In 2022, stablecoins settled over $11tn onchain, dwarfing the volumes processed by PayPal ($1.4tn), almost surpassing the payment volume of Visa ($11.6tn), and reaching 14% of the volume settled by ACH and over 1% the volume settled by Fedwire. It is remarkable that in just a few years, a new global money movement rail [&#8230;]</p> <p>The post <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/08/the-relentless-rise-of-stablecoins.html" rel="nofollow">The Relentless Rise of Stablecoins</a> appeared first on <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com" rel="nofollow">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>

<p>In Chennai I recorded with chess great Vishy Anand, here is the transcript, audio, and video, note the chess analysis works best on YouTube, for those of you who follow such things (you don&#8217;t have to for most of the dialogue).  Here is the episode summary: Tyler and Vishy sat down in Chennai to discuss [&#8230;]</p> <p>The post <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/08/my-conversation-with-vishy-anand.html" rel="nofollow">My Conversation with Vishy Anand</a> appeared first on <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com" rel="nofollow">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>

<p>1. &#8220;We show that the gender wage gap [at public universities] is narrowing. It declined by more than 50% over the course of our data panel to the point where by 2021, it is no longer detectable at conventional levels of statistical significance.&#8221; 2. Jetelina and Wallace-Wells on the pandemic. 3. Do non-socially-connected research papers [&#8230;]</p> <p>The post <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/08/wednesday-assorted-links-416.html" rel="nofollow">Wednesday assorted links</a> appeared first on <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com" rel="nofollow">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>

S&amp;P/Case-Shiller <a href="https://my.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-corelogic-case-shiller">released</a> the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3-month average of April, May and June closing prices).<br /> <br /> This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.<br /> <br /> From S&amp;P <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20230829-1465822/1465822_cshomeprice-release-0829.pdf">S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Positive Momentum Continues in June</a><blockquote>The S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported<b> 0.0% annual change in June</b>, up from a loss of -0.4% in the previous month. The 10- City Composite showed a decrease of -0.5%, which is an improvement on the -1.1% decrease in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year loss of -1.2%, up from -1.7% in the previous month.<br /> ...<br /> Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase in June, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites also posted like increases of 0.9%.<br /> <br /> After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.7%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.9%.<br /> <br /> “U.S. home prices continued to increase in June 2023,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&amp;P DJI. “Our National Composite rose by 0.9% in June, and it now stands only -0.02% below its all time peak from exactly one year ago. Our 10- and 20-City Composites likewise each gained 0.9% in June 2023, and stand -0.5% and -1.2%, respectively, below their June 2022 peaks.<br /> <br /> “As we’ve noted previously, the recovery in home prices is broadly based. Prices rose in all 20 cities in June, both before and after seasonal adjustment. Over the last 12 months, 10 cities show positive returns. Otherwise said, half the cities in our sample now sit at all-time high prices.<br /> <br /> “Regional differences continue to be striking. On a year-over-year basis, <b>June’s three best-performing cities were Chicago (+4.2%), Cleveland (+4.1%), and New York (+3.4%) – the same three that had topped our May leader board</b>. At the other end of the scale, the worst performers continue to be in the Pacific and Mountain time zones, with San Francisco (-9.7%) and Seattle (-8.8%) at the bottom. The Midwest (+2.8%) continues as the nation’s strongest region, followed this month by the Northeast (+1.6%). The West (-5.9%) remains the weakest region.<br /> <span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlSwVdvLRNoRj1uEPWGfcrelSkiKaFxfOGc9vw_1pO-bxnF7ebSXDplri3KmMZ8fstsu_XfhxFcVJdAoubI_3Jz3aQvf5ZpxeU0_tit3e8bWv60NZyCLBa0Ri1K-Xr1Ghn1YX8P51brkkZU6Vhw2oYcY5gz9i50_1yk3fA5FJ6G-JQvx0IpMb2/s1029/CSJune2023.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Case-Shiller House Prices Indices" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlSwVdvLRNoRj1uEPWGfcrelSkiKaFxfOGc9vw_1pO-bxnF7ebSXDplri3KmMZ8fstsu_XfhxFcVJdAoubI_3Jz3aQvf5ZpxeU0_tit3e8bWv60NZyCLBa0Ri1K-Xr1Ghn1YX8P51brkkZU6Vhw2oYcY5gz9i50_1yk3fA5FJ6G-JQvx0IpMb2/s320/CSJune2023.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a> <i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i> <br /> <br /> The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).<br /> <br /> The Composite 10 index is up 0.9% in June (SA) and down 0.5% from the recent peak in June 2022.<br /> <br /> The Composite 20 index is up 0.9% (SA) in June and down 1.2% from the recent peak in June 2022.<br /> <br /> The National index is up 0.7% (SA) in June and is down slightly from the peak in June 2022.<br /> <br /> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNETEFm_JtaFDxrFze6ltJ0P_ZW5p4KHNknnpAUSJmMAhMJ5LX2J0lhCo0tp6ZU6T3h9HFjJ8Zk4K0IqdpvB1vSEJemt930WC004YzlbFVjTaY5wOjJpxe7nDflgEUKDKBueSgihOM29Bljm4tbcQyYg5MoQRUcuog4XW5PFKTUOwPwuH7nCSA/s1023/CSYoYJune2023.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Case-Shiller House Prices Indices" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNETEFm_JtaFDxrFze6ltJ0P_ZW5p4KHNknnpAUSJmMAhMJ5LX2J0lhCo0tp6ZU6T3h9HFjJ8Zk4K0IqdpvB1vSEJemt930WC004YzlbFVjTaY5wOjJpxe7nDflgEUKDKBueSgihOM29Bljm4tbcQyYg5MoQRUcuog4XW5PFKTUOwPwuH7nCSA/s320/CSYoYJune2023.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a> The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.<br /> <br /> The Composite 10 SA is down 0.5% year-over-year.&nbsp; The Composite 20 SA is down 1.2% year-over-year.<br /> <br /> The National index SA is unchanged year-over-year.<br /> <br />Annual price changes were slightly above expectations.&nbsp; I'll have more later.