Charles Connaughton
@econn.bsky.social
Assistant Professor, Trulaske College of Business @ Mizzou. Researching the language of innovation. Bayesian.
At risk of being heavy handed, this thread is about AI.
Coding agents are going to relieve some bottlenecks, while other factors become limiting. Will the subsequent order be less, or more human centered?
It took decades to figure this all out for electric motors - will it be faster this time?
Coding agents are going to relieve some bottlenecks, while other factors become limiting. Will the subsequent order be less, or more human centered?
It took decades to figure this all out for electric motors - will it be faster this time?
January 11, 2026 at 7:31 PM
At risk of being heavy handed, this thread is about AI.
Coding agents are going to relieve some bottlenecks, while other factors become limiting. Will the subsequent order be less, or more human centered?
It took decades to figure this all out for electric motors - will it be faster this time?
Coding agents are going to relieve some bottlenecks, while other factors become limiting. Will the subsequent order be less, or more human centered?
It took decades to figure this all out for electric motors - will it be faster this time?
This new set of constraints kicked off the 2nd industrial revolution - replacing the old, rigid, machine centered paradigm with a new, flexible, human centered one.
The main hurdles were not technological, but architectural - understanding how new constraints opened up newer, better processes.
The main hurdles were not technological, but architectural - understanding how new constraints opened up newer, better processes.
January 11, 2026 at 7:27 PM
This new set of constraints kicked off the 2nd industrial revolution - replacing the old, rigid, machine centered paradigm with a new, flexible, human centered one.
The main hurdles were not technological, but architectural - understanding how new constraints opened up newer, better processes.
The main hurdles were not technological, but architectural - understanding how new constraints opened up newer, better processes.
Individual devices could also more readily be switched on and off in an electrified world. This introduced a level of task flexibility that was previously too costly to seriously consider.
January 11, 2026 at 7:25 PM
Individual devices could also more readily be switched on and off in an electrified world. This introduced a level of task flexibility that was previously too costly to seriously consider.
Taking advantage of that, factories were radically reconfigured. Instead of designing around maximizing the power from the line, factories could be laid out in a more human-centered way. Workstations could be designed around workers and their tasks, rather than workers around the workstation.
January 11, 2026 at 7:23 PM
Taking advantage of that, factories were radically reconfigured. Instead of designing around maximizing the power from the line, factories could be laid out in a more human-centered way. Workstations could be designed around workers and their tasks, rather than workers around the workstation.
It wasn't for a couple more decades, in the early 20th century, that factory planners started to understand the power of electricity.
Electricity was more flexible. With electricity, you could power many smaller electric motors. You didn't actually need the line shaft anymore.
Electricity was more flexible. With electricity, you could power many smaller electric motors. You didn't actually need the line shaft anymore.
January 11, 2026 at 7:21 PM
It wasn't for a couple more decades, in the early 20th century, that factory planners started to understand the power of electricity.
Electricity was more flexible. With electricity, you could power many smaller electric motors. You didn't actually need the line shaft anymore.
Electricity was more flexible. With electricity, you could power many smaller electric motors. You didn't actually need the line shaft anymore.
This had limited success. Not just because of the efficiency of steam engines - electricity today is still often generated by making steam to drive a turbine that generates electricity. Why include the extra step when you can drive the line shaft directly?
January 11, 2026 at 7:19 PM
This had limited success. Not just because of the efficiency of steam engines - electricity today is still often generated by making steam to drive a turbine that generates electricity. Why include the extra step when you can drive the line shaft directly?
Industrialists of course experimented with replacing the main driver of their line shaft with an electric motor - upgrading the technology powering the factory in the same way that steam engines has replaced water wheels and mules.
January 11, 2026 at 7:17 PM
Industrialists of course experimented with replacing the main driver of their line shaft with an electric motor - upgrading the technology powering the factory in the same way that steam engines has replaced water wheels and mules.
Electricity had been invented long before all this, but electrical generators had lagged behind steam engines in their power and usefulness.
The first applications of electricity in factories were in lighting, replacing gas lamps with a safer, more reliable alternative.
The first applications of electricity in factories were in lighting, replacing gas lamps with a safer, more reliable alternative.
January 11, 2026 at 7:15 PM
Electricity had been invented long before all this, but electrical generators had lagged behind steam engines in their power and usefulness.
The first applications of electricity in factories were in lighting, replacing gas lamps with a safer, more reliable alternative.
The first applications of electricity in factories were in lighting, replacing gas lamps with a safer, more reliable alternative.
Factories are laid out to maximize the power from the engine. Workers crowd around a drive shaft, feeding in materials or pulling out finished parts, doing the fine tasks the machine can't.
The machine works at its own pace. If workers are slow they miss a cycle, as the machine moves without them.
The machine works at its own pace. If workers are slow they miss a cycle, as the machine moves without them.
January 11, 2026 at 7:13 PM
Factories are laid out to maximize the power from the engine. Workers crowd around a drive shaft, feeding in materials or pulling out finished parts, doing the fine tasks the machine can't.
The machine works at its own pace. If workers are slow they miss a cycle, as the machine moves without them.
The machine works at its own pace. If workers are slow they miss a cycle, as the machine moves without them.
Steam engine factories worked the same way - but you get even bigger shafts, more elaborate pulley systems, and complex floorplans to take advantage of all of that power.
January 11, 2026 at 7:07 PM
Steam engine factories worked the same way - but you get even bigger shafts, more elaborate pulley systems, and complex floorplans to take advantage of all of that power.
Steam engines were a drop in replacement for those other technologies, and allowed for much larger scale line shaft layouts.
Think of it like how an old windmill works - the wind turns the wheel, which powers a main drive shaft, with a series of belts and pulleys powering everything else.
Think of it like how an old windmill works - the wind turns the wheel, which powers a main drive shaft, with a series of belts and pulleys powering everything else.
January 11, 2026 at 7:03 PM
Steam engines were a drop in replacement for those other technologies, and allowed for much larger scale line shaft layouts.
Think of it like how an old windmill works - the wind turns the wheel, which powers a main drive shaft, with a series of belts and pulleys powering everything else.
Think of it like how an old windmill works - the wind turns the wheel, which powers a main drive shaft, with a series of belts and pulleys powering everything else.
My impression is that there's enormous latent demand for customized software, B2B especially, that'll eagerly suck up productivity gains in the short run.
There's going to be a lot of money in those applications.
In the longer run I suspect 'writing code' will cease the be the gating step.
There's going to be a lot of money in those applications.
In the longer run I suspect 'writing code' will cease the be the gating step.
January 5, 2026 at 4:03 PM
My impression is that there's enormous latent demand for customized software, B2B especially, that'll eagerly suck up productivity gains in the short run.
There's going to be a lot of money in those applications.
In the longer run I suspect 'writing code' will cease the be the gating step.
There's going to be a lot of money in those applications.
In the longer run I suspect 'writing code' will cease the be the gating step.
The key part of the article is that asset prices are rising faster than wages, while affluent consumers prioritize positional goods.
You can't grow your way out of a status competition. Soaring asset prices amplify it, where the winners are not determined by productivity, but generational wealth.
You can't grow your way out of a status competition. Soaring asset prices amplify it, where the winners are not determined by productivity, but generational wealth.
January 2, 2026 at 6:15 PM
The key part of the article is that asset prices are rising faster than wages, while affluent consumers prioritize positional goods.
You can't grow your way out of a status competition. Soaring asset prices amplify it, where the winners are not determined by productivity, but generational wealth.
You can't grow your way out of a status competition. Soaring asset prices amplify it, where the winners are not determined by productivity, but generational wealth.
EVs alsp destroy the dealership business model because there are laws in most states prohibiting manufacturers from selling internal combustion engine vehicles directly to the consumer (or running their own dealerships), but those laws do not apply to electric vehicles.
December 29, 2025 at 7:28 PM
EVs alsp destroy the dealership business model because there are laws in most states prohibiting manufacturers from selling internal combustion engine vehicles directly to the consumer (or running their own dealerships), but those laws do not apply to electric vehicles.
It's the general governance problem - insiders are biased, outsiders are clueless. Outside experts have their own agendas and can make things worse.
You need to triangulate between them to overcome these limits, but if they get too friendly your oversight gets co-opted.
No stable solution exists.
You need to triangulate between them to overcome these limits, but if they get too friendly your oversight gets co-opted.
No stable solution exists.
December 27, 2025 at 5:05 PM
It's the general governance problem - insiders are biased, outsiders are clueless. Outside experts have their own agendas and can make things worse.
You need to triangulate between them to overcome these limits, but if they get too friendly your oversight gets co-opted.
No stable solution exists.
You need to triangulate between them to overcome these limits, but if they get too friendly your oversight gets co-opted.
No stable solution exists.
The shared information environment has collapsed from the rise of the internet and social media.
In its wake is relentless competition for attention. Simple ideas that appeal to instincts and fears are dominant.
Populism is contra-elite, an appeal to the gut. Learning is hard and we don't want to.
In its wake is relentless competition for attention. Simple ideas that appeal to instincts and fears are dominant.
Populism is contra-elite, an appeal to the gut. Learning is hard and we don't want to.
December 24, 2025 at 8:19 PM
The shared information environment has collapsed from the rise of the internet and social media.
In its wake is relentless competition for attention. Simple ideas that appeal to instincts and fears are dominant.
Populism is contra-elite, an appeal to the gut. Learning is hard and we don't want to.
In its wake is relentless competition for attention. Simple ideas that appeal to instincts and fears are dominant.
Populism is contra-elite, an appeal to the gut. Learning is hard and we don't want to.
This is the worst case for a bubble - the frontier labs have no moat, never realize the profits to repay their loans, and bankrupt.
That would freeze the state of the art, but the inference shops would keep running them as a service. There are still decades of applications to build atop that.
That would freeze the state of the art, but the inference shops would keep running them as a service. There are still decades of applications to build atop that.
December 21, 2025 at 4:06 PM
This is the worst case for a bubble - the frontier labs have no moat, never realize the profits to repay their loans, and bankrupt.
That would freeze the state of the art, but the inference shops would keep running them as a service. There are still decades of applications to build atop that.
That would freeze the state of the art, but the inference shops would keep running them as a service. There are still decades of applications to build atop that.
The 'plain language to convince and flatter you' is a big issue. GenAI adopts the meta-syntactic tics associated with persuasive experts, and people trust that much more than the actual content being delivered.
We evaluate the messenger, not the message, and the LLM messenger is suave.
We evaluate the messenger, not the message, and the LLM messenger is suave.
December 18, 2025 at 5:27 AM
The 'plain language to convince and flatter you' is a big issue. GenAI adopts the meta-syntactic tics associated with persuasive experts, and people trust that much more than the actual content being delivered.
We evaluate the messenger, not the message, and the LLM messenger is suave.
We evaluate the messenger, not the message, and the LLM messenger is suave.
Applaud this so hard. We need papers like this to be the norm.
So much of what we do results in failure, and it is impossible to quantify how many failed studies are quietly replicated over and over because there is no incentive to write about it.
So much of what we do results in failure, and it is impossible to quantify how many failed studies are quietly replicated over and over because there is no incentive to write about it.
November 29, 2025 at 3:50 AM
Applaud this so hard. We need papers like this to be the norm.
So much of what we do results in failure, and it is impossible to quantify how many failed studies are quietly replicated over and over because there is no incentive to write about it.
So much of what we do results in failure, and it is impossible to quantify how many failed studies are quietly replicated over and over because there is no incentive to write about it.
Where we decide to draw the regulatory boundaries affects the size of the black market for jailbroken models - and how accessible they will be.
People generating explicit images of their coworkers is uncomfortable and distasteful, but if the only model that does that also helps you build bombs...
People generating explicit images of their coworkers is uncomfortable and distasteful, but if the only model that does that also helps you build bombs...
November 25, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Where we decide to draw the regulatory boundaries affects the size of the black market for jailbroken models - and how accessible they will be.
People generating explicit images of their coworkers is uncomfortable and distasteful, but if the only model that does that also helps you build bombs...
People generating explicit images of their coworkers is uncomfortable and distasteful, but if the only model that does that also helps you build bombs...
In a multi-dimensional space, distance from the center follows a chi-square distribution; for even a modest number of dimensions, the number of voters close to the center approaches zero.
'Moderate' voters just aren't polarized along the hyper-partisan dimension. They still have preferences.
'Moderate' voters just aren't polarized along the hyper-partisan dimension. They still have preferences.
November 17, 2025 at 3:40 PM
In a multi-dimensional space, distance from the center follows a chi-square distribution; for even a modest number of dimensions, the number of voters close to the center approaches zero.
'Moderate' voters just aren't polarized along the hyper-partisan dimension. They still have preferences.
'Moderate' voters just aren't polarized along the hyper-partisan dimension. They still have preferences.