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Ed Hill

@edmhill.bsky.social

2.9K followers 960 following 930 posts

Researcher in mathematical epidemiology & infectious disease modelling. Affiliations: Civic Health Innovation Labs (CHIL) @livunichil.bsky.social, @thepandemicinst.bsky.social, @livuni-phps.bsky.social‬, @livuni-iph.bsky.social, @liverpooluni.bsky.social.

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Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 12d

1/ 🎧 New 'Health Data Decoded' episode! #SciComm

❓ How can you build coalitions + drive impact at scale across public, private & third sectors?

👤 Guest: Annemarie Naylor, Director of HealthTech & Innovation Growth at University of Liverpool!

📹 YouTube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6Va...

📻 Spotify👇

Health Data Decoded | Civic HealthTech Innovation Zone (CHI-Zone) – Annemarie Naylor [Ep. 7]

open.spotify.com

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Reposted by Ed Hill

Prof. Michael Fuhrer @michaelsfuhrer.bsky.social · 3d

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has been estimating excess deaths in the UK due to Covid-19 and influenza since 2022.

Here’s a visualization of their latest results. I’ll walk you through it.

www.gov.uk/government/s...

1/

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Reposted by Ed Hill

The Pandemic Institute @thepandemicinst.bsky.social · 7d

Great first day of our Scientific Meeting, hearing from a range of our funded projects plus colleagues from @ukhsa.bsky.social, FIND, Dstl, @cepi.net and more #TPI2025

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Reposted by Ed Hill

Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski.bsky.social · 7d

At our recent @lshtm.bsky.social event on misinformation, Chris Whitty gave some useful reflections on common causes and some important considerations for handling it.

Full event: www.youtube.com/live/H_nClQ2...

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Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 8d

4/ Episode summary continued

5️⃣ Public Participation and Data Practices – Emily Rempel [Ep. 5]

6️⃣ Health Economics and Equity at Liverpool – Liz Camacho & Will Whitaker [Ep. 6]

7️⃣ Civic HealthTech Innovation Zone (CHI-Zone) – Annemarie Naylor [Ep. 7]

/end

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 8d

3/ Episode summary -

1️⃣ Who are we? - Sam Ball & Ed Hill [Ep. 1]

2️⃣ Data Action Accelerator Programme Manager - Seonaid Lafferty [Ep. 2]

3️⃣ Data & software engineering – Albert Brennan [Ep. 3]

4️⃣ Directing research programmes – Andrea Astbury [Ep. 4]

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 8d

2/ Health Data Decoded podcast

🗣️ Hear our interdisciplinary research team talking about their work to tackle global health challenges with civic data & technology while driving positive change for the people of the Liverpool City Region.

7️⃣ episodes are now live!

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 8d

1/ Today is International Podcasts Day!

🎙️ Earlier this year, Sam Ball and myself launched the @livunichil.bsky.social Health Data Decoded podcast. #PublicHealth #DataScience #SciComm

📹 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@HealthDataD...

🎧 Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/1kbSyvI...

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Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 10d

📰 DEFRA avian influenza update on 28 Sep 2025 #IDEpi #OneHealth 🧪

🐔 HPAI H5N1 confirmed in commercial poultry at a premises near Wetheral, Cumbria.

📊 79 confirmed HPAI H5N1 cases in poultry & other captive birds in UK from 04 Nov 2024.
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England: 70
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland: 3
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales: 2
🇬🇧 Northern Ireland: 4

Bird flu: near Wetheral, Cumberland, Cumbria (AIV 2025/62)

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 was confirmed in commercial poultry at a premises near Wetheral, Cumberland, Cumbria on 28 September 2025.

www.gov.uk

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 12d

3/ Health Data Decoded

🎙️ Civic Health Innovation Labs (@livunichil.bsky.social) podcast discussing how we can use civic data to improve public health.

🎧 Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/1kbSyvI...

📹 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@HealthDataD...

/end

Health Data Decoded

Welcome to Health Data Decoded! A podcast series from the Civic Health Innovation Labs (CHIL), based at the University of Liverpool. CHIL is an interdisciplinary research centre tackling global hea...

www.youtube.com

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Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 12d

2/ Civic Health Innovation Lab’s Investment Zone programme (CHI-Zone)

🗣️ Annemarie shares experiences leading implementation of CHI-Zone with Integrated Care Board & Liverpool City Region’s Combined Authority

🔗 Annemarie’s webpage: www.liverpool.ac.uk/people/annem...

🔗 CHI-Zone: www.chi-zone.co.uk

CHI-Zone | Empowering Industry to Develop Health and Care Solutions

Discover the Civic HealthTech Innovation Zone, a hub for health and care innovation in the Liverpool City Region. Find out more today.

www.chi-zone.co.uk

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Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 12d

Health Data Decoded | Civic HealthTech Innovation Zone (CHI-Zone) – Annemarie Naylor [Ep. 7]

open.spotify.com

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Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 13d

3/ Resources

Report 🔗: www.gov.uk/government/s...

National flu & COVID-19 surveillance data: 25 September 2025 (week 39)

🔗: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68d504...

National flu & COVID-19 surveillance reports: 2025 to 2026 season repository

🔗: www.gov.uk/government/s...

/end

National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports: 2025 to 2026 season

National influenza (flu) and COVID-19 report, monitoring COVID-19 activity, seasonal flu and other seasonal respiratory illnesses.

www.gov.uk

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 13d

2/ Influenza activity level (AL) indicators

🔬 Lab surveillance influenza positivity: ↗️ (AL: Baseline)

🥼 GP swabbing positivity: ⬆️ (AL: Baseline)

Influenza activity showed low activity and circulated at baseline levels.

Indicator: Laboratory surveillance
Trend: Increasing slightly
Level: Baseline
Data: Influenza positivity increased slightly with a weekly mean positivity rate of 1.3% compared with 1.1% in the previous week

Indicator: GP swabbing positivity
Trend: Increasing
Level: Baseline
Data: In week 37, among all tested samples, 2.4% were positive for influenza, compared with 0.8% in the previous week.

Note: These indicators use the moving epidemic method (MEM) and the mean standard deviation method (MSD) to define thresholds to determine their respective levels of activity. Further information on these methods can be found in ‘Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the Moving Epidemic Method’ (available at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2012.00422.x) and ‘Setting thresholds to determine COVID-19 activity levels using the mean standard deviation’ (MSD) method, England, 2022 to 2024 (available at https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2024.29.45.2400696). The MEM approach is well-established for some influenza surveillance indicators, however, for other indicators both the MEM and MSD are experimental and may be subject to future revision. Influenza laboratory surveillance (from week 1) and GP swabbing positivity (from week 2) have transitioned from using MEM to using MSD. These approaches will be considered alongside expert opinion and triangulation of other data sources.

Laboratory-confirmed cases

The Second Generation Surveillance System (SGSS) captures test result information for notifiable infectious diseases, including COVID-19 and influenza, from laboratories in England. The unified sample dataset (USD), used to calculate the percentage tests positive for SARS-CoV-2 among all SARS-CoV-2 tests, stores all SARS-CoV-2 test results reported to SGSS, Respiratory DataMart, and UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) laboratories.

Daily percentage of tests positive for influenza among all reported influenza tests (7-day rolling average), England

Influenza positivity in week 38 2025 increased slightly with a weekly mean positivity rate of 1.3% compared with 1.1% in the previous week.

Respiratory DataMart System

Respiratory DataMart is a sentinel laboratory-based surveillance system where participating laboratories report positive and negative test results for a number of respiratory viruses from samples primarily taken in hospital. A small proportion of primary care samples are also included in this reporting.

In week 38, data is based on reporting from 9 out of the 14 sentinel laboratories.

In week 38, 1,578 respiratory specimens reported through the Respiratory DataMart System were tested for influenza. There were 20 positive samples for influenza: 17 influenza A (not subtyped), 2 influenza A (H3N2), 1 influenza A (H1N1)pdm09, and 0 influenza B. Overall, influenza positivity remained stable at 1.3% in week 38 compared with 1.3% in the previous week.

DataMart data is provisional and subject to retrospective updates.

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 13d

1/ Seasonal influenza summary from latest @ukhsa.bsky.social surveillance report. #IDSky #EpiSky 🧪

🗓️ Based on data up to week 38 2025 (15- 21 Sep 2025)

📊 Seasonal influenza continues to circulate at baseline levels in England

Report 🔗: www.gov.uk/government/s...

National flu and COVID-19 surveillance report: 25 September 2025 (week 39)

www.gov.uk

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Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 19d

4/ 👥 Supervisors: Jake Dunning | Miles Carrol | Barry Atkinson | Susan Gould

💰 Funding: Fully funded DPhil studentship - UK Students Only for 3.5 years, covering DPhil fees at University of Oxford’s standard UK/home rate.

⏰ Application deadline: 10 Oct 2025.

📅 Start Date: 12 Jan 2026

/end

This is a fully funded DPhil studentship (UK Students Only for 3.5 years, covering DPhil fees at the University of Oxford’s standard UK/home rate.

Application deadline: Friday 10th October 2025 – 17:00 UK time

Apply online via the University webpages DPhil in Clinical Medicine

Please refer to the Admissions section at the bottom of this page.

Start date: 12th January 2026 (Please note the early start of January 2026 instead of the usual October 2026 start)

Direct enquiries to jake.dunning@ndm.ox.ac.uk prior to application are recommended.

Note: Due to conditions of funding for this project, only applications from individuals eligible for home (UK) fees will be considered.

Supervisors

Name: Jake Dunning
Department: Pandemic Sciences Institute
Institution: Oxford University
Email: jake.dunning@ndm.ox.ac.uk

Name: Miles Carroll
Department: Centre for Human Genetics
Institution: Oxford University
Email: miles.carroll@ndm.ox.ac.uk

Name: Barry Atkinson
Institution: Oxford University

Name: Susan Gould
Institution: Oxford University

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 19d

3/ Specific areas continued

2️⃣ Address knowledge gaps: design and conduct experiments and environmental sampling.

3️⃣ Conduct experiments to address specific, important biocontainment questions raised by HCID clinical specialists.

2. Addressing knowledge gaps: design and conduct experiments and environmental sampling

The next step will be to perform experiments and sampling to address the knowledge gaps identified. Given HCID incidents are rare, the DPhil student will develop and use a panel of surrogate markers (e.g. non-pathogenic organisms, fluorochromes and other chemical indicators) in experimental models of HCID exposure-hazard generation. Additionally, because avian influenza is currently the most significant Airborne HCID threat in the UK, the student will aim to perform air and surface sampling around patients with seasonal influenza A virus infections (subject to necessary approvals being obtained). If patients with confirmed Airborne or Contact HCIDs are identified during the DPhil, environmental sampling will be performed by the student, as part of the existing ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Protocol Study that is already supported by the HPRU, with an opportunity for the DPhil student to be involved in and develop and refine the environmental sampling methods used in this study.

3. Conduct experiments to address specific, important biocontainment questions raised by HCID clinical specialists

The DPhil student will also develop and perform appropriate experiments and sampling methods to address specific, unanswered IPC questions raised by those caring for patients with HCIDs (NHS England’s HCID Networks). This includes determining whether removal of contaminated PPE in the anteroom of an isolation room with a positive pressure ventilated lobby (PPVL) risks spreading pathogen to clean areas elsewhere within the facility, demonstrating that biocontainment is achieved as intended for newly designed isolation facilities (including new patient isolators), and assessing whether perceived aerosol transmission risks actually exist for specific medical interventions, such as high frequency oscillatory ventilation that is used in paediatric and neonatal intensive care. With the support of their supervisors, the DPhil student will also offer environmental sampling, using surrogate markers that they have developed, to supplement and improve observations of perceived pathogen exposure risks during HCID and emerging infection training exercises.

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 19d

2/ 🧪 Scientific overview: Develop evidence base to inform appropriate infection prevention control & biocontainment measures for high consequence infectious diseases.

Specific areas:

1️⃣ Describe what is known & not known about high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) pathogen exposure hazards.

Theme overview:

High consequence infectious diseases are rare, transmissible infections that can cause serious illness and death. Examples include Ebola disease, Lassa fever, avian influenza, and Nipah virus infection. Infection prevention and control (IPC) measures for patients with HCIDs are often highly precautionary, including the use of specific biocontainment facilities and enhanced personal protective equipment (PPE). HCID pathogen exposure hazards are often difficult to quantify, and they may vary according to specific circumstances and clinical contexts. While epidemiological data on exposure incidents and nosocomial transmission events may help inform estimates of risk, HCID incidents tend to be rare, limiting the opportunities to collect data and have a sufficient sample size. Furthermore, epidemiological data alone cannot inform risk assessments of exposure and transmission. However, the detection, quantitation, and characterisation of HCID contagion in the clinical environment, including the use of surrogate markers where appropriate, also help to inform risk estimates and mitigations. Similar environmental monitoring methods and experiments can be used to assess the likely effectiveness of existing and proposed biocontainment and IPC measures for HCIDs.

This University of Oxford DPhil opportunity is funded by the National Institute for Health and Social Care Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections (EZI). The successful candidate will therefore join the NIHR HPRU-EZI, in addition to being a DPhil candidate at the University of Oxford.The supervisors are recognised experts in emerging and high consequence infectious diseases and have significant experience in evaluating environmental contamination, mechanisms of transmission, and methods to prevent transmission, for a variety of emerging and high consequence infectious diseases

Areas to be explored:

1. Describing what is known and not known about HCID pathogen exposure hazards

The project will begin by identifying and describing the pathogen exposure hazards that are likely to be encountered when providing care to patients with HCIDs, and the characteristics of hazards that could result in secondary transmission e.g. exposure to different types of infectious respiratory particles versus fomite contamination. This will be achieved through a systematic review of the available, existing literature.

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Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 19d

1/❓ Are you passionate about tackling some of the world’s most pressing #PublicHealth challenges?

🚨 Funded DPhil opportunity at University of Oxford & @hpruezi.bsky.social #PhD #AcademicJobs

[Funding conditions note: Only applications from individuals eligible for home (UK) fees can be considered]

DPhil project themes

www.ndm.ox.ac.uk

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Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 20d

🦆 High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza – WOAH Sit Rep 74 #IDSky #IDEpi 🧪

🗓️ Covers Aug 2025

📊 Outbreaks reported in Africa, Americas, Asia & Europe: 12 in poultry; 51 in non-poultry birds & mammals.

▶️ Reported total of 228,089 poultry birds died or culled in Aug 2025

🔗: www.woah.org/app/uploads/...

HPAI key figures for the current seasonal wave (Oct 2024 - Sep 2025) and the two previous waves (Oct 2022 - Sep 2023; Oct 2023 - Sep 2024).

Oct 2022-Sep 2023.
Countries and territories reporting HPAI in poultry: 48
No. of HPAI outbreaks in poultry: 1963
Countries and territories reporting HPAI in wild birds: 64
No. of HPAI outbreaks in wild birds: 3994

Oct 2023-Sep 2024.
Countries and territories reporting HPAI in poultry: 39
No. of HPAI outbreaks in poultry: 852
Countries and territories reporting HPAI in wild birds: 55
No. of HPAI outbreaks in wild birds: 1076

Oct 2024-Sep 2025 (as of 31 Aug 2025).
Countries and territories reporting HPAI in poultry: 48
No. of HPAI outbreaks in poultry: 1333
Countries and territories reporting HPAI in wild birds: 50
No. of HPAI outbreaks in wild birds: 1760

During August 2025, 12 new outbreaks in poultry were notified by 7 countries/territories (Argentina, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Chinese Taipei, South Africa, United Kingdom, United States of America).

Number of new outbreaks, associated cases and losses by geographical region (losses include animals dead and killed and disposed of within outbreaks – they do not include culling around outbreaks). It should also be noted that some countries or territories are unable to provide a precise number of cases and leave this field blank in the report.

New Outbreak statistics. Africa: 2; Americas: 2, Asia: 3; Europe 5.

Cases statistics. Africa: 273; Asia: 37,063; Europe: 759.

Losses statistics. Africa: 15,673; Americas: 1,398; Asia: 210,727; Europe: 291.

During August 2025, a total of 51 outbreaks in non-poultry birds were reported through WAHIS by 9 countries (Argentina, Bolivia, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom).

This list corresponds to countries and territories that have notified cases in wild birds, mammals or domestic birds other than poultry. This explains why their numbers are different from those presented in the ‘HPAI key figures for the current seasonal wave and the two previous waves’ table, which does not cover domestic birds other than poultry.

The number of HPAI new outbreaks in non-poultry animals reported through WAHIS by geographical region during August2025:

Americas: 3 (all in in non-poultry birds).

Europe: 48 (all in non-poultry birds).

Reposted by Ed Hill

Ewan Colman @ewancolman.bsky.social · 21d

We're advertising a PhD position! 😎 Modelling the epidemiological impact of HIV prophylaxis on a backdrop of social, cultural, and behavioural complexity

www.findaphd.com/phds/project...

Modelling the epidemiological impact of HIV prophylaxis on a backdrop of social, cultural, and behavioural complexity at University of Bristol on FindAPhD.com

PhD Project - Modelling the epidemiological impact of HIV prophylaxis on a backdrop of social, cultural, and behavioural complexity at University of Bristol, listed on FindAPhD.com

www.findaphd.com

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Reposted by Ed Hill

Public Health, Policy and Systems @ University of Liverpool @livuni-phps.bsky.social · 22d

1/ 🚨 Two fully funded #PhD studentships for UK students

❓ Are you passionate about making a difference for people’s health and wellbeing? Would you like to learn cutting edge data science skills for real impact?

🔗: www.liverpool.ac.uk/courses/two-...

#AcademicJobs #ResearchJobs #PublicHealth

Two fully funded studentships in the Department of Public Health, Policy & Systems. | Courses | University of Liverpool

Shape the future of public health with a fully funded PhD at the University of Liverpool. Join a world-leading team using cutting-edge data science and AI to tackle real-world challenges—like homeless...

www.liverpool.ac.uk

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Reposted by Ed Hill

amycthomas.bsky.social @amycthomas.bsky.social · 22d

🐦 GW4 MRC funded PhD position on
Modelling and communicating Avian Influenza spillover at the human-wild bird interface 🐦

Interdisciplinary One Health project!
Infection histories, contacts and behavioural science.

@neeltjeboogert.bsky.social @3113n.bsky.social @mtwhite.bsky.social, Louise Smith

Modelling and communicating avian influenza spillover at the human-wild bird interface: a One Health approach

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Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 27d

3/ Resources

Report 🔗: www.gov.uk/government/s...

National flu & COVID-19 surveillance data: 11 September 2025 (week 37)

🔗: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68c19f...

National flu & COVID-19 surveillance reports: 2025 to 2026 season repository

🔗: www.gov.uk/government/s...

/end

National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports: 2025 to 2026 season

National influenza (flu) and COVID-19 report, monitoring COVID-19 activity, seasonal flu and other seasonal respiratory illnesses.

www.gov.uk

Ed Hill @edmhill.bsky.social · 27d

2/ Influenza activity level (AL) indicators

🔬 Lab surveillance influenza positivity: ⬇️ (AL: Baseline)

🥼 GP swabbing positivity: ⬆️ (AL: Baseline)