Michael McDonald
@electproject.bsky.social
Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida specializing in American elections
They get the impending Blue Wave correct, I’ll give them that
January 1, 2026 at 12:17 AM
They get the impending Blue Wave correct, I’ll give them that
With news today that the post office has stopped post-marking mail on the day it is dropped in the mail box, I humbly suggest that in states that don't offer ballot return drop boxes Democrats would do well rediscovering voting in-person early
December 30, 2025 at 3:30 AM
With news today that the post office has stopped post-marking mail on the day it is dropped in the mail box, I humbly suggest that in states that don't offer ballot return drop boxes Democrats would do well rediscovering voting in-person early
Who could have guessed Trump lied when he said "I was never on Epstein's Plane" truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
December 23, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Who could have guessed Trump lied when he said "I was never on Epstein's Plane" truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
Working on a paper and ran into this Lee Atwater quote about the Republican Southern strategy
December 17, 2025 at 6:46 PM
Working on a paper and ran into this Lee Atwater quote about the Republican Southern strategy
I'll bet you didn't know Venezuela* was historically a part of the United States before it was wrongfully taken from us. We must take it back IMMEDIATELY
*U.S. ownership applies only to oil
*U.S. ownership applies only to oil
December 17, 2025 at 12:06 AM
I'll bet you didn't know Venezuela* was historically a part of the United States before it was wrongfully taken from us. We must take it back IMMEDIATELY
*U.S. ownership applies only to oil
*U.S. ownership applies only to oil
Chris Whipple (author of the Vanity Fair piece on Wiles) is the new Isaac Chotiner www.vanityfair.com/news/story/t...
December 16, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Chris Whipple (author of the Vanity Fair piece on Wiles) is the new Isaac Chotiner www.vanityfair.com/news/story/t...
Habba Habba Shoo
December 8, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Habba Habba Shoo
New York Times please challenge my assumption that your paper no longer reports objective news. I would be pleased if you did not validate my view
December 2, 2025 at 4:05 PM
New York Times please challenge my assumption that your paper no longer reports objective news. I would be pleased if you did not validate my view
Peering into infinity
November 29, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Peering into infinity
The post-Maduro Venezuela plan:
November 24, 2025 at 3:36 PM
The post-Maduro Venezuela plan:
Nina Perales, who was the lead lawyer in the last Texas re-redistricting case (and won the VRA claims before SCOTUS), is listed as the lead lawyer on the original LULAC complaint redistricting.lls.edu/wp-content/u...
November 18, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Nina Perales, who was the lead lawyer in the last Texas re-redistricting case (and won the VRA claims before SCOTUS), is listed as the lead lawyer on the original LULAC complaint redistricting.lls.edu/wp-content/u...
Mark Epstein (Jeffery Epstein's brother), says Republicans have been scrubbed from the Epstein files www.newsnationnow.com/cuomo-show/m...
November 18, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Mark Epstein (Jeffery Epstein's brother), says Republicans have been scrubbed from the Epstein files www.newsnationnow.com/cuomo-show/m...
From the NYT. Furthermore we've detected errors in the precinct boundaries themselves, leading to election officials making corrections when queried. I don't think the NYT takes the time to resolve those issues
November 18, 2025 at 2:58 AM
From the NYT. Furthermore we've detected errors in the precinct boundaries themselves, leading to election officials making corrections when queried. I don't think the NYT takes the time to resolve those issues
What perfect album came out the year you turned 16?
November 17, 2025 at 1:32 AM
What perfect album came out the year you turned 16?
The AI bubble is showing signs of bursting. Here is a list of pre-market movers from CNN. See a commonality? www.cnn.com/markets/prem...
November 14, 2025 at 1:31 PM
The AI bubble is showing signs of bursting. Here is a list of pre-market movers from CNN. See a commonality? www.cnn.com/markets/prem...
Pretty clear relationship between statewide VEP turnout rates and the shift in the Democratic margin of victory compared with 2024. NJ and VA experienced about half the average special election margin shift of 14.4 points.
November 8, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Pretty clear relationship between statewide VEP turnout rates and the shift in the Democratic margin of victory compared with 2024. NJ and VA experienced about half the average special election margin shift of 14.4 points.
For my BlueSky peeps, here are the turnout rates (I cross-post my Substack posts on Xitter, but don't post goodies like this)
November 7, 2025 at 4:25 PM
For my BlueSky peeps, here are the turnout rates (I cross-post my Substack posts on Xitter, but don't post goodies like this)
Thanksgiving as been shrinkflated to Angstgiving
Thank you for your attention to this matter
Thank you for your attention to this matter
November 6, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Thanksgiving as been shrinkflated to Angstgiving
Thank you for your attention to this matter
Thank you for your attention to this matter
Not all pollsters...just the crappy high frequency Republican troll polls
November 6, 2025 at 2:12 AM
Not all pollsters...just the crappy high frequency Republican troll polls
This was a good take
November 5, 2025 at 2:59 PM
This was a good take
Pretty clear pattern that 2025 turnout in the Trumpiest Virginia localities lagged the most behind their 2024 turnout
November 5, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Pretty clear pattern that 2025 turnout in the Trumpiest Virginia localities lagged the most behind their 2024 turnout
Related, I won't be surprised if every one of these polls underestimated Jones
November 5, 2025 at 12:57 AM
Related, I won't be surprised if every one of these polls underestimated Jones
Connecticut reported a slight increased gap between registered Democrats and Republicans voting early since I last ran their numbers as of Tuesday of last week (+8.0 points then, +8.2 points now). This increase is almost entirely due to fewer unaffiliated voting early
November 3, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Connecticut reported a slight increased gap between registered Democrats and Republicans voting early since I last ran their numbers as of Tuesday of last week (+8.0 points then, +8.2 points now). This increase is almost entirely due to fewer unaffiliated voting early
I find most interesting in the CNN poll is that Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote in the 2026 midterms than Republicans, 67% to 46%. That big enthusiasm gap is reflected in the early voting numbers for tomorrow's election www.cnn.com/2025/11/03/p...
November 3, 2025 at 12:50 PM
I find most interesting in the CNN poll is that Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote in the 2026 midterms than Republicans, 67% to 46%. That big enthusiasm gap is reflected in the early voting numbers for tomorrow's election www.cnn.com/2025/11/03/p...
New Jersey early vote update as of Friday, with a same-day comparison to 2024 open.substack.com/pub/michaelm...
November 2, 2025 at 6:06 PM
New Jersey early vote update as of Friday, with a same-day comparison to 2024 open.substack.com/pub/michaelm...