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Reposted by Mohamed A. El-Erian

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 15h

What is happening in France may not stay in France on.ft.com/46E37Gu | opinion

What is happening in France may not stay in France

Bond markets are losing patience with political paralysis

on.ft.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 2h

No stopping the price of gold for now:
Up more than 50% so far this year, it has more than doubled over the past two years.
Consistent buying by some foreign central baks is being reinforced by growing institutional and retail allocations, and a more volatile speculative overlay.
#gold #markets

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 13h

The resignation of another French PM highlights deep-seated political instability and fiscal challenges. This article explores the immediate impact on French government bonds, the unusual comparison to Italy's market, and the wider implications for the ECB and the UK:
www.ft.com/content/04ed...

What is happening in France may not stay in France

Bond markets are losing patience with political paralysis

www.ft.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 16h

… respond to what they perceive as the ongoing fragmentation of the global economic and financial order.
#economy #markets #gold

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 16h

…at or near record highs.
In effect, and for the reasons I’ve outlined both in previous articles and here during gold’s remarkable recent ascent, this development is less about “unease in financial markets” and, in part, more about an attempt by some to…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 16h

This is the type of headline you’d expect when gold prices hit a milestone record high, as they did this morning. Yet, as noted in yesterday’s posts and several earlier ones, this surge is occurring alongside “risk-on” indicators — such as the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, and others — also trading…
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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 1d

Via the Financial Times, fresh evidence of the extent to which risk spreads are narrowing across global assets as investors stretch for returns.

#economy #markets #investors #investing #emergingmarkets #em @financialtimes.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 1d

…
Record levels for Bitcoin, gold, NASDAQ, Russell and S&P
Near record high for Copper
14-year high for silver
And more.
#markets #investors #investing

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 1d

How special was today in markets?
Per Gemini AI, “Monday, October 6th, 2025, saw a remarkable day in the financial markets, with several key assets across different sectors closing at all-time highs.”
Specifically, ...
Record levels for Bitcoin, gold, NASDAQ, Russell and S&P

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 1d

The decoupling of economic growth from employment adds complexity to Federal Reserve policymaking. Here’s why:

www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/f...

#economy #jobs #growth #Inflation #FederalReserve

As Growth Decouples From Employment, the Fed Faces a Trilemma

Mohamed A. El-Erian thinks macroeconomic and market trends are giving the US central bank reason to fear for financial stability.

www.project-syndicate.org

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 2d

The Financial Times on how the price of gold has "rocketed almost 50% this year, its best performance since 1979, as institutional investors pile in."

@financialtimes.com #economy #markets #gold

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 2d

A new record for Bitcoin prices:
Bitcoin traded above $125,000 earlier this morning before pulling back somewhat.
#bitcoin #crypto #markets

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 2d

…for me are: (i) how stable is this situation, and (ii) if it is indeed an unstable equilibrium—as I suspect—will it eventually give way to a phase of greater hiring, or one marked by increased job cuts?
More to follow on how this links to growth and the policy implications.
#economy #jobs #ft.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 2d

From the FT article on “Labour markets stuck in a ‘low hire, low fire’ cycle”
“Labour markets in many leading economies are freezing up as uncertainty over trade, tax and artificial intelligence causes employers to put off hiring and firing and employees to stick with their jobs”
The main questions…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 3d

Please find below the link to my weekly look ahead for the global economy and markets:

mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-week-a...

#economy #markets #growth #inflation #stocks #bonds #bitcoin #gold #investing #investors #shutdown #shutdown2025

The Week Ahead for the Global Economy and Markets

The Context

mohamedelerian.substack.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d

Per these @cnbc.com charts and further to the earlier post:
Gold is trading above $3,900, poised to set yet another record high; and
Bitcoin is within 1% of its all time high.
#economy #markets #gold #crypto #bitcoin #investing #investors

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d

Here is what I think are the four main effects on the US economy of the Government Shutdown:

mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-four-m...

#economy #shutdown #Shutdown2025 #growth #inflation #debt #deficits #markets

The Four Major Economic Effects of the US Government Shutdown

As the political impasse and blame game drag into Day 3 of the US government shutdown, economists and policymakers are assessing the potential impact on the economy.

mohamedelerian.substack.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d

... the prices paid index edging higher to 69.4 and pointing to persistent cost pressures.
The only component that surprised on the upside was employment; yet, even with that positive move, it remained in contractionary territory at 47.2.
#economy #jobs #services #inflation #markets

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d

The just-released US ISM Services Sector data disappointed virtually across the board:
Headline for September was 50.0 (the boundary between expansion and contraction) and below the consensus forecast.
Re components:
New orders fell 5.6 points to 50.4.
By contrast, inflation rose, with...
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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d

The UK’s elevated borrowing costs are reflected not only in the relatively high yield on government bonds but also by how it has outpaced US counterparts.
Per the chart below, the UK-US difference in yields for 10-year government bonds is now almost as high as it was during the Liz Truss moment.
#uk

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d

Please find below the monthly performance table for major assets.
Sept delivered virtually across-the-board gains, further bolstering year-to-date performance
In some cases (equities and gold), this led to new record highs.
The notable exception was oil, which saw its price decline during the month

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d

Per this CNBC reporting, the strategy favoring gold and Bitcoin now has a name: JP Morgan analysts are calling it "the debasement trade."
#economy #gold #bitcoin @cnbc.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d

This accurate framing of US support for Argentina raises an interesting question in markets: what will this swap line bridge to?
Will it be additional IMF financing, where Argentina’s debt is already high, or more internal economic adjustments, where already a lot has been implemented.
#Argentina

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 6d

… asset area that has not experienced a meaningful recovery since April. In fact, it is trading weaker than its level immediately following "Liberation Day.”
#economy #markets #dollar #gold #investing #investors

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 6d

Among the interesting moves in markets this morning:
Gold is higher again, hitting yet another record as its price approaches $3,900 per ounce.
The DXY dollar index has depreciated to a two-week low, reinforcing the narrative that it remains the one major…

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