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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 5d

Russia's shadow fleet is dual-use: many vessels don't just transport sanctioned oil but have other uses too (think surveillance, threatening cables).

One group knows a lot about them: Danish pilots. We should listen to them.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/02/r... (Me @foreignpolicy.com)

Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is Doing More Than Sanctions-Busting

In the Baltic, Russian-linked vessels are suspected of spying and sabotage.

foreignpolicy.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 5d

Helsinki District Court's judgment in the pivotal Eagle S case:

- The court says it lacks jurisdiction
- But it also says the three seafarers perpetrated "aggravated criminal damage".

There are lots of implications. We won't have seen the last suspicious cable/pipeline incident.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 19d

Such a book is indeed in its way...

Let's see what else may transpire between now and the publication next year.

James Barr @jamesbarr.bsky.social · 19d

I have an uncomfortable feeling that at some point this report will feature in a book. The sentence will read: “In fact a committee of MPs had drawn attention to the vulnerability of the UK’s subsea cables a year before the attack took place.”

Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 19d

It has been published: the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy's report on undersea cables.

It was a privilege to be involved in the inquiry and see some of my suggestions picked up by the committee.

publications.parliament.uk/pa/jt5901/jt...

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 19d

It has been published: the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy's report on undersea cables.

It was a privilege to be involved in the inquiry and see some of my suggestions picked up by the committee.

publications.parliament.uk/pa/jt5901/jt...

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 20d

What constitutes an act of war these days?

The people defining this crucial issue are...underwriters.

The trial of Serhii K will be of enormous significance for them - and indeed for everyone.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/17/n...

(Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.)

What Is War? Ask an Underwriter.

Correctly defining conflict has high stakes in the insurance industry.

foreignpolicy.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · 28d

A few days ago, Poland released an "in case of crisis or war" leaflet.

It turned out to be prescient, what with Russian drones crossing into Poland last night.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Sep 8

Intently watching the Red Sea region for any announcements regarding the cable cuts.

Were the cuts intentional? A massively unfortunate accident?

The world of cables has truly taken turbulent turns since I began writing Undersea War.

www.techradar.com/pro/microsof...

Microsoft Azure services see major disruption after Red Sea cables cut

Azure and other services are experiencing disruptions

www.techradar.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Aug 30

Taiwan's new Zero Day Attack television series:

Brilliant entertainment - and the attacks (including sea blockade, disruption of the financial system etc) are very close to reality.

That makes the show educational too.

Lots of countries need a show like this.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/29/t...

Can TV Help Prepare for Invasion?

Taiwan’s “Zero Day Attack” sets an example other threatened states can follow.

foreignpolicy.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Aug 28

The UK (and other countries) should do like Sweden, which has just begun teaching national security (total defence, to be precise) in secondary schools.

Investing in defence equipment is good. But teenagers' minds have even more potential.

www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Me @thetimes.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Aug 25

Another cheap Chinese EV is coming to the European market.

Chinese EVs are cheap partly because they use LFP batteries.

We seem doomed to dependence on China.

But: Europe now has its very own LFP factory - in Norway.

www.politico.eu/article/norw...

Me @politico.eu

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Reposted by Elisabeth Braw

Shashank Joshi @shashj.bsky.social · Aug 7

“The studies imply estimated [Gaza] life expectancy has fallen by more than 35 years, to ~ half the pre-war figure. In percentage terms…bigger than…during China’s Great Leap Forward; in absolute terms it is similar to the one in the Rwanda genocide” www.economist.com/interactive/...

How much of Gaza is left standing?

Analysis by independent researchers reveals the scale of the destruction

www.economist.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Aug 7

We may be snickering at the Admiral Kuznetsov's slow demise and expected death.

But she's not that important to the Russian Navy. Submarines are -- and the submarine fleet is growing significantly.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/06/r... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. No paywall)

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Aug 2

Greyzone aggression has become our daily reality.

Now it emerges that Russia recruited a Colombian to commit arson in Poland.

Selyst @selyst2023.bsky.social · Jul 30

@elisabethbraw.bsky.social
@sandbaggerone.bsky.social @gordoncorera.bsky.social @keirgiles.bsky.social @danjarvismp.bsky.social
Colombian veteran recruited over Telegram for proxy arson attacks in Poland and Czechia

#GreyZone

www.polskieradio.pl/395/7785/Art...

Colombian linked to Russian-backed arson attacks in Poland, say authorities

A 27-year-old Colombian man working for Russian intelligence was behind two arson attacks in Poland in 2024, authorities said on Tuesday.

www.polskieradio.pl

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 23

The Committee's summary is very apt:

War on every doorstep

Great work, @tandhesi.bsky.social and team.

Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 23

Greyzone aggression:

Years ago, I had trouble convincing people it was worth taking seriously.

Since then, it has exploded (so to speak).

It was a privilege to be involved in the UK Parliament Defence Committee's outstanding inquiry.

publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5901/cm...

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 23

Greyzone aggression:

Years ago, I had trouble convincing people it was worth taking seriously.

Since then, it has exploded (so to speak).

It was a privilege to be involved in the UK Parliament Defence Committee's outstanding inquiry.

publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5901/cm...

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 21

The Houthis are escalating their violence against ships - and seafarers.

Global shipping's defenders need help.

There's a global power that has a large navy and foreign-policy ambitions -- and a lot of seafarers now facing harm.

India.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/21/h...

Me @foreignpolicy.com

New Houthi Tactics Call for New, Non-Western Solutions

As Houthi attacks target Indian sailors, the Indian Navy has a chance to step up.

foreignpolicy.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 18

Without the installers and repairers of subsea cables, modern life would not be possible.

(Imagine if cables were cut and no repair crews were available.)

But the workforce is ageing. Let's hope lots of people discover this crucial profession.

www.thetimes.com/comment/colu... (Me @thetimes.com)

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 16

It's very much worth noticing!

And where else do people ranging from young children to tech types, ambassadors and pensioners team up to sing and dance together?

Estonia is valuable indeed.

Toomas Tirs @toomastirs.bsky.social · Jul 16

At Estonian Song and Dance Festival: "We Estonians are all together, in unison … It sends the message that this is who we are, that we’re proud of our culture and that we’re valuable."
Thank you @elisabethbraw.bsky.social for noticing!
@mfaestonia.bsky.social @tsahkna.bsky.social

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · Jul 16

COMMENTARY: While other countries celebrate their national identity with military parades, Estonia does it with song and dance.

It's a perfect reminder that countries can be strong and resolute, while posing no threat.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 16

"The Song and Dance Festival demonstrates our societal resilience,” @tsahkna.bsky.social told me.

Naturally, the Estonian FM was involved (as a singer). Doctors, nurses, tech types, teenagers, pensioners too.

This is societal resilience. (And joy)

www.politico.eu/article/esto... (Me @politico.eu)

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 15

If a string of undersea cables were to malfunction, global financial hubs could be shaken.

The finance sector should demonstrate preparedness for cable blackouts.

Especially since it transmits appr. $10 trillion through subsea cables every day.

on.ft.com/4nLpvUQ (Me @financialtimes.com)

Financial institutions should prepare for subsea cable sabotage

Attacks on the infrastructure that moves money could be a bigger threat than cyber hacks

on.ft.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 14

It's good for you (and your health).

It's good for the country (as the Estonians just illustrated, again, with their massive Song and Dance Festival).

Do a good thing for yourself and the country: join a choir.

www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Me @thetimes.com

@mfaestonia.bsky.social

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 9

'War on every doorstep.'

The UK Defence Select Committee's inquiry and report on greyzone aggression is out publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5901/cm....

It was an honour to be involved.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 8

Russia's use of freelance agents to commit greyzone act right in our midst is frightening and sinister - and it's growing.

The three men who set fire to a warehouse in east London last year acted on behalf of the Wagner Group.

www.bbc.com/news/article...

Three men found guilty of arson attack for Wagner Group

Around £1m worth of damage was caused in the arson attack on an industrial unit in Leyton, east London last year.

www.bbc.com

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 6

Estonians know how to do it.

The Song and Dance Festival is taking place with superior planning, superior artistry, superior logistics and enormous joy.

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Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw.bsky.social · Jul 2

Regarding the news that Germany will inspect suspected shadow vessels' insurance certificates (www.reuters.com/world/german...): inspecting is better than not inspecting, but the certificates may turn out to be worthless www.politico.eu/article/chec....

Germany launches additional measures against Russia's 'shadow fleet'

Germany has pledged additional measures to further counter Russia's so-called shadow fleet operating in the Baltic and North Sea, the foreign ministry said on Tuesday in a statement.

www.reuters.com

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