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Reposted by Emily Fry

Resolution Foundation @resfoundation.bsky.social · 29d

🚨 Vacancies alert!

We're currently hiring for three new roles. Applications for all three will close on September 19th.

See details and how to apply here 👉 buff.ly/EjyZen5

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Jun 30

You can find the definitive starter pack for my fantastic @resfoundation.bsky.social colleagues here👇

bsky.app/starter-pack...

bsky.app

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Jun 30

Personal update: I'm joining the Bank of England for six months - stepping away from my Resolution Foundation desk. I will be tweeting a bit less while I’m heads-down on policy work, but will see you on the other side!

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Jun 23

Thanks Adam for this and for your interesting points on firms!

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Reposted by Emily Fry

John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · Jun 23

Chart-heavy thread incoming. This is an attempt to survey the research to answer the question - were the forecasts predicting a lot of Brexit damage correct? 1/n.

John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · Jun 23

The Constitution Society and Federal Trust asked me to do a survey of the evidence on the economics of Brexit, nine years on from the vote.
Hopefully it's a helpful reference. Short answer: the consensus was right - a large hit to GDP, trade and investment.
consoc.org.uk/publications...

The Economic Impact of Brexit, Nine Years On: Was the Consensus Right? - The Constitution Society

John Springford analyses the economic consequences of Brexit and compares this predictions made at the time of the Leave vote.

consoc.org.uk

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Jun 23

Between some to a lot would be absorbed by higher housing costs. But i) the wage gains in early career are long lasting (even if you move to another labour market), and ii) property tax reform would mean the Government can capture those higher housing costs to spend on e.g. better public services.

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Jun 23

For our full report, co-authored with Richmond Egyei, ‪@tasoskitsos.bsky.social @gthwaites.bsky.social
@dalilariba.bsky.social & Enrico Vanino with even more charts see 👇

www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

The power of place • Resolution Foundation

Tracking English early-career workers using the Longitudinal Education Outcomes dataset, we show one-third of regional wage gaps arise from place, not people. Identical full-time workers earn about £1...

www.resolutionfoundation.org

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Jun 23

So what should we do about this?

A) Build houses ALL types of housing in the most productive labour markets - including social and affordable housing.

B) Reform property taxes to tax housing properly.

C) Think hard about how to move the highest paying firms and functions around.

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Jun 23

Instead, what matters is where high-value firms & functions - like headquarters - cluster.

FTSE listed companies are most likely to headquarter in London, and much less likely to headquarter in Birmingham, for example.

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Jun 23

So what about differences in industry mix, occupations and firm size across England? We find that these explain little of the differences in pay between places. Most of the variation in pay is within industries and within firm size (the light blue bars in the chart below).

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Jun 23

Some large cities - such as Birmingham and Manchester - fall below the regression line. I.e. they have smaller place effects that you would expect for their size.

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Jun 23

So, how does place drive regional pay inequality?

One explanation is agglomeration - i.e. larger labour markets pay more. But we find that doubling a labour market’s size lifts pay by only 3.9 per cent, explaining just 24 per cent of the place premium.

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Jun 23

People effects are smaller than place, accounting for about 1/4 of the gap. So, high-skilled workers do earn more everywhere, but place matters more.

Sorting matters too. High-earning-potential workers move to high-pay areas. That clustering explains 42 per cent of the overall wage variance.

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Jun 23

Previously, research found that just 12% of the differences in pay was due to place. But using new methods, and new data, we find that *one-third* (34%) of the pay gap between areas is place.

Move an average worker from Dudley to Harrogate and they pocket an extra £1,300 a year (~5 per cent).

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Jun 23

Because we follow the same workers as they switch jobs and regions, we can split wage gaps into “people effects” vs “place effects.”

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Jun 23

We use the Longitudinal Education Outcomes dataset – a rich dataset which includes almost every worker in England born after 1985 - to track how 22-36-year-olds pay changes as they move across all 155 of England's Travel-to-Work Areas.

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Jun 23

Pay varies hugely across England: in 2024 weekly pay was just £610 in Liskeard to £1,130 in London.

Is this because high‑earning areas attract inherently higher‑earning people, or because the jobs located there pay more to any worker?

Our new @resfoundation.bsky.social report finds out.

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Reposted by Emily Fry

Resolution Foundation @resfoundation.bsky.social · Jun 23

🚨 New research published today

Our latest report by Richmond Egyei @emilyfry.bsky.social‬ ‪‪@tasoskitsos.bsky.social‬ @gthwaites.bsky.social @dalilariba.bsky.social‬ & Enrico Vanino looks at the impact of place in regional inequality.

Read more ⬇️

buff.ly/ycjN6KI

Greg Thwaites, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation, said:
“England is beset by stark and persistent geographic wage inequalities, with Londoners’ typical earning twice as much as those living in places like Liskeard or Cromer. It’s often assumed that people are driving these divides, but in fact place-based pay penalties are rife across England. A typical early career worker could lose out on £1,300 a year just because of where their job is located.
“Policy makers at local, regional and national levels can address these divides by creating the conditions for high-paying firms to locate to their areas, while avoiding an arms race between regions in subsidies for firms.
“Moving to higher-paying areas can hugely boost young people’s career earnings, but housing is a major barrier to making these moves. Policy makers should do more to bring these housing barriers down.”

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Jun 19

Thanks Giles!

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Reposted by Emily Fry

Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · Jun 19

There's a really nice @productivity.bsky.social episode here on why trade is great for productivity, with @bartvanark.bsky.social interviewing @emilyfry.bsky.social and others

Here's the Pocket Casts link

pca.st/episode/ddfe...

Trade and UK Productivity: From Global Markets to Local Gains

pca.st

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · Jun 12

With more day-to-day spending on health, and capital spending on defence, it's a step closer to being a country of doctors and nurses…with a lot of jets and tanks

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · May 1

This is based on the latest UK data (February 2025).

But with tariffs ramping up from March and trade flows shifting, one thing’s certain: there’s more volatility ahead.

Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · May 1

As of February, the biggest contributor to that surge is... non-ferrous metals.

Exports of non-ferrous metals to the US (aluminium, copper, and *precious metals*) are up 1,358% since Feb 2024.

This isn't a global trend: exports to the RoW fell 50% since Feb 2024.

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · May 1

Non-seasonally adjusted UK goods exports to the US have jumped 31% since September 2024 (vs -1% to RoW), and are up 11% since February 2024 (vs -10% to the RoW).

What are we sending? More cars? More pharma?

Not quite.

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Emily Fry @emilyfry.bsky.social · May 1

Yesterday’s US GDP release showed how businesses can quickly respond to tariff threats.

Real US GDP fell 0.3% in Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024, dragged down by a surge in imports and inventories.

The headline number is tricky to interpret, but it raises a question: is the UK part of this import surge?

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