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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD

@epiellie.bsky.social

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 12d

If you’ve been following the RFK Jr autism news, then you’ve probably heard that there’s a systematic review “proving” Tylenol causes autism.

Here’s my review of that paper👇🏼

open.substack.com/pub/epiellie...

The best evidence Tylenol causes autism isn't great

On Monday, RFK Jr announced Tylenol ‘causes’ autism referencing three studies as evidence. Let's dive in.

open.substack.com

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 1h

I read it!

Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 2d

It’s easy to miss the errors in papers like this because the problems are hidden in the things they don’t say. That’s how papers like this get through peer-review so often too.

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 2d

Basically, they used some data that had already been collected for a different reason, and then failed to do any sort of sanity checks on whether it was appropriate to use or not.

Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 2d

That would certainly have been the first question I asked if this were my data. They don’t mention it.

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 2d

Yes exactly. I dont wanna sound like a hater, but I gotta point out the flaws!

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 2d

bsky.app/profile/epie...

Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 2d

My review of the third autism-Tylenol study RFK Jr mentioned is out now.

If you weighed in on "what proportion of kids have neurodevelopmental disorders" yesterday, this paper is why I asked the question. Most of you will be very surprised by their answer!

open.substack.com/pub/epiellie...

RFK Jr's third Tylenol-autism study is just run-of-the-mill bad research

I’m reading through RFK Jr’s supposed evidence that Tylenol causes autism and it’s not looking good for his conclusions.

open.substack.com

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 2d

I struggled to write this, because there are so many things wrong with this paper. They are all things that you see frequently in low-quality research, and it was hard to decide what to focus on.

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 2d

RFK Jr's third Tylenol-autism study is just run-of-the-mill bad research

I’m reading through RFK Jr’s supposed evidence that Tylenol causes autism and it’s not looking good for his conclusions.

open.substack.com

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 3d

😆

Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 4d

Even real trials have an ideal target trial

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 4d

The thing that’s really concerning about this paper is that the author team *looks* like they should know better. And yet.

Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 4d

Yup

Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 4d

also, “alcohol use” on any medical record ever

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 4d

birth to 21 years 🤷🏼‍♀️this wont help you

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 4d

and yet, in this study i’m reading, it counts 🤦🏼‍♀️

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 4d

That’s what I’d think too

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 4d

Anyway, the real question is .. if I told you a sample of kids was less than one-third "neurotypical" would you think I had randomly sampled them?

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 4d

Formally diagnosed, but choose your preferred set of diagnostic categories

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 4d

lol

Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 4d

Personally, I wouldn't base either definition on "alcohol use, unspecified" but maybe that's why RFK Jr isn't hyping my papers 🤷‍♀️

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 4d

Basically....
bsky.app/profile/epie...

Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 4d

Follow-up question:

if you were attempting to identify children and young adults with "neurotypical development" vs with "any neurodevelopmental disorder" would you count "alcohol use" as neurotypical or a disorder?

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 4d

Quick question: if you had to guess, what would you expect the prevalence of “any neurodevelopmental disorder” to be in a random sample of young people?

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 5d

Yeah, I’m def gonna continue in my paper but it’s a bit of a bummer to see someone else had a v similar idea.

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Dr Ellie Murray, ScD @epiellie.bsky.social · 6d

You do such cool stuff!