Eric Pedersen
@ericjpedersen.bsky.social
Associate prof of biology prof Concordia University. Lost in the wilds between ecology, statistics, and dynamic systems. Always interested in chatting all things GAM- and and nonlinear-system related
I'm happy to answer hgam questions here! If you emailed me with questions already, my apologies for missing it
November 12, 2025 at 2:59 AM
I'm happy to answer hgam questions here! If you emailed me with questions already, my apologies for missing it
The saddest thing here is that Musk doesn't recognize that he is clearly Saruman: a weak man corrupted by visions of technology and manipulated by the greater powers of evil, then discarded when he stops being useful
November 11, 2025 at 3:36 PM
The saddest thing here is that Musk doesn't recognize that he is clearly Saruman: a weak man corrupted by visions of technology and manipulated by the greater powers of evil, then discarded when he stops being useful
Is it too much to ask for them to just show Bond's regeneration process on screen one time?
a man in a suit and tie holds up his hand in front of a wall with bbc written on it
Alt: A gif of David Tennant as Dr. Who starting his transformation sequence into the next doctor, with glowing particle effects coming out of his hands
media.tenor.com
November 11, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Is it too much to ask for them to just show Bond's regeneration process on screen one time?
In a similar low-fantasy procedural vein there's "The Witness for the Dead" and "The Grief of Stones" by Katherine Addison. Set in the same world as my favorite political thriller, "The Goblin Emperor"
October 21, 2025 at 3:15 AM
In a similar low-fantasy procedural vein there's "The Witness for the Dead" and "The Grief of Stones" by Katherine Addison. Set in the same world as my favorite political thriller, "The Goblin Emperor"
Obsidian and Blood series by Aliette de Bodard: police procedural set in pre-contact Tenochtitlan where the investigator is the High Priest for the Dead, and has to deal with both murder and overly interested gods
October 21, 2025 at 3:12 AM
Obsidian and Blood series by Aliette de Bodard: police procedural set in pre-contact Tenochtitlan where the investigator is the High Priest for the Dead, and has to deal with both murder and overly interested gods
The nth generation of species inventing paleontology would be increasingly confused by the horizons of acrylics in the rock record.
Then their chemists invented their own plastics and they suddenly got scared
Then their chemists invented their own plastics and they suddenly got scared
October 20, 2025 at 1:39 PM
The nth generation of species inventing paleontology would be increasingly confused by the horizons of acrylics in the rock record.
Then their chemists invented their own plastics and they suddenly got scared
Then their chemists invented their own plastics and they suddenly got scared
I hope it comes with a little toga you can pull over it's head
October 16, 2025 at 5:50 PM
I hope it comes with a little toga you can pull over it's head
Similar energy here
October 1, 2025 at 2:43 AM
Similar energy here
That makes sense. Also, probably not worth the effort to improve estimates of "average belief" anyway: as you noted in the post the estimand likely doesn't exist.
Before today I doubt that I had a number in my mind for "fraction of people who own guns", so I'd have to estimate it at survey time
Before today I doubt that I had a number in my mind for "fraction of people who own guns", so I'd have to estimate it at survey time
September 21, 2025 at 4:45 PM
That makes sense. Also, probably not worth the effort to improve estimates of "average belief" anyway: as you noted in the post the estimand likely doesn't exist.
Before today I doubt that I had a number in my mind for "fraction of people who own guns", so I'd have to estimate it at survey time
Before today I doubt that I had a number in my mind for "fraction of people who own guns", so I'd have to estimate it at survey time
I also wonder about incentives for YouGov here: I would guess it would look better if they reported median rather than mean responses at least for correcting for random answers, but "people think 10% of all people are trans" would likely get many fewer headlines
September 21, 2025 at 4:26 PM
I also wonder about incentives for YouGov here: I would guess it would look better if they reported median rather than mean responses at least for correcting for random answers, but "people think 10% of all people are trans" would likely get many fewer headlines
Thanks for writing this! Adding this to my intro stats reading list.
Is there any work looking at whether people are better at estimating proportions when asked about concrete frequencies (e.g. "how many Americans out of 100 Americans own a car?".
Seems related to this:
doi.org/10.1016/0010...
Is there any work looking at whether people are better at estimating proportions when asked about concrete frequencies (e.g. "how many Americans out of 100 Americans own a car?".
Seems related to this:
doi.org/10.1016/0010...
Redirecting
doi.org
September 21, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Thanks for writing this! Adding this to my intro stats reading list.
Is there any work looking at whether people are better at estimating proportions when asked about concrete frequencies (e.g. "how many Americans out of 100 Americans own a car?".
Seems related to this:
doi.org/10.1016/0010...
Is there any work looking at whether people are better at estimating proportions when asked about concrete frequencies (e.g. "how many Americans out of 100 Americans own a car?".
Seems related to this:
doi.org/10.1016/0010...
I've played mycelia once and enjoyed it. It does feel like you're playing as a fungus in a forest community. I found its strategy a bit hard to get on first play, though, and it's definitely a "crunchy" game
September 14, 2025 at 10:30 PM
I've played mycelia once and enjoyed it. It does feel like you're playing as a fungus in a forest community. I found its strategy a bit hard to get on first play, though, and it's definitely a "crunchy" game
Undergrove is fantastic: you play as Douglas Fir trees trading resources with fungi to grow seedlings. By the same designer as Wingspan, and both very fun to play and incredibly well-researched
September 14, 2025 at 10:24 PM
Undergrove is fantastic: you play as Douglas Fir trees trading resources with fungi to grow seedlings. By the same designer as Wingspan, and both very fun to play and incredibly well-researched
I keep meaning to learn targets, but it's just complex enough that I end up doing things like the hash trick because I'm short on time for a given project
September 4, 2025 at 1:20 PM
I keep meaning to learn targets, but it's just complex enough that I end up doing things like the hash trick because I'm short on time for a given project
In one recent project I ended up with a function that checks the hash of the data, the simulation file, and the saved output, then only reran the costly sims if the calculated hashes didn't match the ones in the saved sim file.
Do not ask what lengths I'll go to to avoid relearning make files
Do not ask what lengths I'll go to to avoid relearning make files
September 4, 2025 at 3:48 AM
In one recent project I ended up with a function that checks the hash of the data, the simulation file, and the saved output, then only reran the costly sims if the calculated hashes didn't match the ones in the saved sim file.
Do not ask what lengths I'll go to to avoid relearning make files
Do not ask what lengths I'll go to to avoid relearning make files
Of course, Icarus is the OG failson
September 2, 2025 at 1:41 AM
Of course, Icarus is the OG failson
(important disclaimer: I don't hold any special knowledge or expertise in Cree stories, that's just my impression from reading English language versions of some of them)
September 1, 2025 at 2:06 PM
(important disclaimer: I don't hold any special knowledge or expertise in Cree stories, that's just my impression from reading English language versions of some of them)
Although you could see Weesageechak as a war god who is also occasionally a bumbling idiot for comedic effect
September 1, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Although you could see Weesageechak as a war god who is also occasionally a bumbling idiot for comedic effect
A lot of trickster stories from many cultures have that kind of vibe for some of the stories, but the trickster is generally never depicted as a bumbling idiot across multiple stories
September 1, 2025 at 2:03 PM
A lot of trickster stories from many cultures have that kind of vibe for some of the stories, but the trickster is generally never depicted as a bumbling idiot across multiple stories
Inspired by @kjhealy.co's post on "Life at low Reynolds number" and a recent discussion with Jeremy Fox on the Dynamic Ecology blog
dynamicecology.wordpress.com/2025/08/29/t...
dynamicecology.wordpress.com/2025/08/29/t...
This Friday linkfest can swim at a low Reynolds number
This week: leaving evolutionary biology, economics vs. LLMs, current events vs. John Adams, llama vs. Napoleon Dynamite, and more.
dynamicecology.wordpress.com
August 29, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Inspired by @kjhealy.co's post on "Life at low Reynolds number" and a recent discussion with Jeremy Fox on the Dynamic Ecology blog
dynamicecology.wordpress.com/2025/08/29/t...
dynamicecology.wordpress.com/2025/08/29/t...