esmithington.bsky.social
@esmithington.bsky.social
Developed market non-USD denominated sovereign/corporate debt
January 8, 2026 at 9:39 PM
They're going to have to stimulate somewhere once the AI bubble bursts and these proposals give a pretty clear signal of where they're focusing, even if the ideas suck
January 8, 2026 at 7:44 PM
A 2% down day turns our brave president into a Panican, god forbid we ever get a real drawdown...he might speedrun us into Weimar Germany
November 21, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Good for WMT, not a good sign for the consumer
November 20, 2025 at 9:58 PM
Thus, market expectations are incentivizing Meta to both a) increase the number of ads on your feed and b) find ways to make you spend more time on their platforms

The alternative? Comcast's stock performance
October 31, 2025 at 1:12 PM
To do that, you need to either grow your user base, or increase revs per user. Since most people in the world are already on at least one Meta platform, the only real way to raise revenues is to increase rev per user.

The easiest way to do that is to increase ad load and time spent on the platform
October 31, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Consensus is for Meta to grow 15%+ topline over at least the next 3 years, and that growth drives a major portion of its valuation (wouldn't be a 1.5T company if growth was flat). So either they grow at that rate or higher, or the stock goes down
October 31, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Carriers assumed program integrity measures would disenroll members at similar levels across utilization levels, and it turned out the members who disenrolled most also had some of the lowest utilization levels

AKA supposed anti-fraud rules caused more healthy ppl to leave mktplace than sick ones
October 22, 2025 at 9:52 PM