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Analyst explains key factor behind Sandu’s election victory
Analyst explains key factor behind Sandu’s election victory
Political analyst and journalist Ivan Kapsamun said on Espreso TV.According to Kapsamun, Sandu’s team approached the elections professionally and systematically. Law enforcement bodies effectively countered Ilan Shor’s network, illegal party financing, and vote-buying schemes. “We saw that some parties were not even allowed to run. There were also court rulings, and former Moldovan oligarch Plahotniuc, now extradited, is awaiting trial,” he noted.The key message Sandu’s party conveyed, Kapsamun said, was that a victory for pro-Russian forces could bring war to Moldova. “People voted to preserve their independence and protect the country from war. The opposition tried to twist this slogan, claiming that if Sandu stayed in power, war would come — but that narrative failed,” he explained.He added that Sandu’s party set 2028 as the target year for joining the EU, signaling a continued European course, ongoing reforms, and investment in infrastructure. “The campaign also achieved maximum mobilization of Sandu’s supporters both in Moldova and abroad,” Capsamun emphasized.Telegram founder Pavel Durov — a former Russian entrepreneur now living in France and the UAE — confirmed that several Telegram channels were removed at the Moldovan government’s request. However, not all accounts listed in Chișinău’s official appeal were blocked.
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“Hold the line”: Zaluzhnyi rejects election plans during wartime
“Hold the line”: Zaluzhnyi rejects election plans during wartime
He wrote about this on his Telegram channel.“I do not recognize any ideas of holding elections during wartime. Anyone who receives an offer allegedly on my behalf to join any processes through any organization should report it to law enforcement. I am not creating any headquarters or parties and have no ties whatsoever with any political force,” emphasized Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom.The former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces said he will continue serving the state as long as he can.“My position remains unchanged: as long as the war continues, elections to Ukraine’s state bodies are impossible. The enemy, having failed to win on the battlefield, just like a hundred years ago, is now using modern tools — anonymous sources, bots, and media — to divide our society and prepare us for elections, but to the State Duma of the country that is killing us. And, by the way, those elections will again be announced first by anonymous sources — and then it will become the truth. Only a united nation can stand. Hold the line,” Zaluzhnyi wrote.On October 8, Intelligence Online reported, citing “sources,” that some senior officials allegedly close to Valerii Zaluzhnyi were offered spots on his “parliamentary list,” despite the fact that he has not decided whether to run for president.
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Russian troops step up activity in Lyman direction – 60th brigade’s communications chief
Russian troops step up activity in Lyman direction – 60th brigade’s communications chief
This was reported by Maksym Bilousov, head of the communications department of the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade, during an Espreso TV broadcast.“Overall, it feels like the enemy has become more active. We can see it in the number of shellings,” Bilousov said.“It’s also clear from conversations with captured Russians. They told us they ended up on the front line just three days after arriving — that was their first combat experience. They’d had only minimal training.”“One of them said: ‘The specialists brought us here, and then we moved from point to point.’ So even they distinguish between the well-trained special units and the regular troops,” Bilousov added.The officer noted that Russian forces are now trying to move closer to the positions of Ukraine’s Defense Forces.“Their task is to act as assault infantry — move between points, build up numbers, infiltrate, and get closer to our lines to carry out the missions assigned to them,” Bilousov explained.“They’re still managing to find manpower to push toward our positions,” he added.Bilousov also said it is difficult to predict how the enemy will behave with the onset of cold weather, as each winter on the front is different.“Every winter is different,” he said. “Last year, the enemy carried out active mechanized assaults, which differed from the ones the year before.”“For example, during the winter of 2023–2024, we saw massive mechanized assaults — up to 10–15 vehicles in our area of responsibility. A heavily reinforced tank or IFV with electronic warfare equipment would go first, trying to suppress our FPV drones, followed by other vehicles.”“But last winter — late 2024 and early 2025 — the number of vehicles dropped to three or four per attack. Usually a tank went first for cover, and several IFVs or APCs followed, carrying infantry.”According to Bilousov, the situation has now changed so much that mechanized assaults have become extremely rare, as Russian troops try to protect their equipment with electronic warfare systems.“They try to get personnel or tanks closer to our positions to fire at us,” he said.“But now, tanks, IFVs, and APCs are destroyed within 30–40 minutes — depending on how much metal they’ve welded on or how much electronic warfare gear they’ve installed.”“It’s hard to say what they’ll do next. Perhaps they’re working on new attack tactics, but for now, they continue to rely on small assault groups. The only difference is that they’ll now be dressed warmer — and, ironically, easier to spot through thermal imaging because of the contrast between body heat and cold surroundings,” Bilousov concluded.
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Transnistria no longer strongly opposed to EU membership – National Congress of Ukrainians of Moldova
Transnistria no longer strongly opposed to EU membership – National Congress of Ukrainians of Moldova
This was stated by Dmytro Lekartsev, head of the National Congress of Ukrainians of Moldova, on Espreso TV.“We hear all kinds of reports and see online reactions that Russia is very angry, that Russia won’t forgive, that Sandu has won. But I hope everything remains peaceful and that nothing happens in Transnistria. Based on these elections, we can see that a large part of Transnistria’s residents live and work in Moldova. Even the 30% of votes gathered by the pro-European government show that Transnistria today may not be that opposed to joining the EU,” Lekartsev said.According to the head of the National Congress of Ukrainians of Moldova, Transnistrian businesses are already actively trading with the EU, selling most of their products to European markets.“Of course, they have their curators who tell them how to behave, but during these elections we didn’t see any sharp statements or provocations that could trigger conflicts.And now the situation is a bit different — the cold season is beginning, and Transnistria already faces certain problems with gas, electricity, and heating. Moldova, for its part, is ready to help and does so openly. So I don’t think they will want to cause trouble, as they risk losing that support,” Lekartsev added.In Moldova’s parliamentary elections, the pro-European PAS party (50%) defeated the pro-Russian bloc of Communists and Socialists (24%).
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Germany gives police green light to shoot down drones amid rising security threats
Germany gives police green light to shoot down drones amid rising security threats
Reuters reported the information.The new law allows police to shoot down drones that violate German airspace. In addition to firearms, drones can be neutralized with lasers or electronic warfare means that interrupt control and navigation signals.By adopting the new law, Germany joins other European countries, including Britain, France, Lithuania, and Romania, which have recently granted their security forces the authority to shoot down drones that violate their airspace.German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt announced that a special anti-drone unit will be created within the federal police. Researchers will be involved in the development of the system and will consult with Israel and Ukraine.The police will be responsible for drones flying at low altitudes (approximately at tree level), while other UAVs will be neutralized by the army."Drone incidents threaten our security. We will not permit that," wrote Chancellor Friedrich Merz.What preceded thisThe new law was passed after dozens of flights were canceled or diverted at Munich Airport—the country's second-largest—on October 3 due to the appearance of drones. As a result, more than 10,000 passengers were stranded at the airport.This is not the only drone incident in Germany. On the evening of September 25, two small drones first flew over the territory of the Thyssenkrupp naval systems plant, then they were spotted over the university clinic, a coastal power plant, and the Kiel Canal.Later, a group of one large and several smaller drones was detected over the Kiel Bay. They flew over the state parliament building and were likely monitoring the Heide refinery, which supplies kerosene to Hamburg Airport.The Interior Minister of Schleswig-Holstein, Sabine Sütterlin-Waack, noted that espionage is currently being investigated, but did not provide details.German Chancellor Merz suggests that Russia is behind most of the drones that have flown over the country. None of them had a warhead—they were likely reconnaissance flights.Following this, Germany announced the creation of a Drone Defense Center.
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EU moves to ban all Russian oil, gas by 2028, overriding Hungarian objections
EU moves to ban all Russian oil, gas by 2028, overriding Hungarian objections
Reuters reported the information.Diplomats stated that almost all EU countries have expressed support for these plans, indicating that the law will be easily passed despite criticism from Hungary and Slovakia.To pass this law, unanimous support from EU countries is not required. The rule of qualified majority applies here, where a decision must be approved by 55% of all member states.Negotiations on technical changes to the document are still ongoing. One of the unresolved issues is whether the export of liquefied natural gas to Europe should require prior approval and, upon arrival at EU ports, verification of its origin to confirm it is not Russian.France and Italy support the plan but want authorities to either pre-approve shipments (if it can be done quickly) or check them after arrival in the EU to ensure the ban is enforced.Countries such as Hungary, France, and Belgium still import Russian gas, which accounts for 12% of the EU's gas imports, compared to 45% before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.The law will oblige Hungary and Slovakia – two countries that still import Russian oil – to develop national plans to cease these imports by 2028.The European Commission proposes to completely stop the import of gas and oil from the Russian Federation by the end of 2027. According to the proposal, new contracts for the import of Russian gas will be banned from January 1, 2026. The final measures require approval from the European Parliament and a qualified majority in the EU Council. This means that they cannot be blocked by Hungary and Slovakia, which still import Russian gas by pipeline and oppose the EU's plans.
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Macron's high-stakes gamble puts Ukraine support at risk as snap elections loom
Macron's high-stakes gamble puts Ukraine support at risk as snap elections loom
The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.In a dramatic political showdown, Macron is betting everything on a risky strategy orchestrated through his trusted ally François Bayrou. The French president's gamble centers on breaking the parliamentary deadlock that has paralyzed the government, with the outcome hinging on whether fractured political factions can be forced into compromise—a failure that could hand power to Ukraine-skeptic extremists on both flanks.The crisis deepened following Bayrou's brief tenure as prime minister, which appears to have been a calculated move rather than a political miscalculation. Macron's strategy involves exploiting divisions within France's left-wing coalition, where Socialists, Greens, and Communists have split from far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon over potential cooperation with Macron's centrists. Mélenchon, who has been critical of Western military aid to Ukraine, accused Socialist leader Olivier Faure of "betrayal" for even considering negotiations.The key breakthrough came when Élisabeth Borne, one of the architects of France's controversial pension reform, announced the reform could be suspended. This concession opened doors for dialogue with Socialist leaders Faure and Raphaël Glucksmann—notably, one of France's most vocal pro-Ukraine politicians who has consistently advocated for stronger European support for Kyiv. Bayrou subsequently endorsed suspending the pension reform, drawing criticism from Republicans and some Macronists but creating potential common ground with the center-left.Republicans now fear that dissolving parliament would cost them rural seats to Marine Le Pen's National Rally party, whose leader has historically maintained ties to Moscow and expressed ambivalence about supporting Ukraine. This threat is making moderate conservatives more amenable to compromise with Macron's coalition.The stakes extend far beyond French domestic politics. If Macron's gambit fails and snap elections empower the far-right National Rally or Mélenchon's far-left faction, France's robust support for Ukraine could be significantly weakened at a critical moment in the war. The president is essentially weaponizing the threat of elections that would benefit extremist parties to force rival camps to negotiate despite their mutual animosity toward him.Macron is concentrating all the hatred of French politics on himself in a desperate attempt to preserve a moderate, pro-European France that remains committed to supporting Ukraine. If the gambit fails, France could face not only parliamentary elections but potentially a presidential contest that could fundamentally alter Europe's united front on Ukraine.
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How Poland's anti-Ukraine rhetoric plays into Kremlin hands
How Poland's anti-Ukraine rhetoric plays into Kremlin hands
On Saturday, September 20, in Warsaw, a homeless man in a bus beat Zenobia Żaczek. Ms. Zenobia dared to reprimand him: he was insulting and harassing an elderly passenger, a Ukrainian woman, for speaking Ukrainian. And he was shouting in his native language that "this is Poland," about Volyn, about Bandera, and that she should "get the... out of here." Ms. Zenobia—for "interfering in matters that were not her own"—was headbutted. Her nose started bleeding. Her fellow passengers went deaf and numb, noses in their phones, gazes out the window.Someone in Wrocław tore the license plates off a Ukrainian car and spray-painted "Na front" ("To the front"). Maybe a Russian agent did it, maybe not, but the comments from Polish internet users are already terrifying. On September 5 in Białołęka, a group of men insulted and beat Ukrainians out of national hatred. There are dozens of examples from recent weeks; there is no point in multiplying them. Poland in 2025. A pre-war time.How little it took for Braun's lexicon about the "Ukrainization" and "Banderization" of Poland to take root. How easily it turned out to transform Putin's war victims into "Ukrainians," outsiders who "wheedle" for aid, avoid battle, graze on others' property, and live "high on the hog." It is worth reading the report by the Bronisław Geremek Foundation on disinformation about refugees from Ukraine in Poland.President Karol Nawrocki, with public approval, vetoed the 800+ law for foreigners. Now, according to the wishes of the defeated democratic candidate, Ukrainians, to receive the payment, will have to pay taxes, have a PESEL number, and send their children to school. And, of course, they must work. How is a Ukrainian woman with two small children, whose husband is fighting at the front, supposed to do this? Poles are not required to work to receive 800+. What is permitted to the voivode... After all, we are in our own home.Nawrocki signed a new law on aid to Ukraine, but—for the last time, because he will not agree to any further support. From next year, Ukrainian war refugees—mostly women, children, and the elderly—are to stay in Poland "on general terms." That is, to receive a temporary residence permit or stay in the country for 90 days within a six-month period.For the Polish president, the war is over. Meanwhile, the European Union states have extended the right of residence for refugees from Ukraine until 2027."Experts are unanimous: restricting the right to 800+ will yield meager savings for the state. In contrast, no one is counting the losses, and they will be unprecedented."And not only in the social sphere, where an anti-migration spiral is being spun, but also in the economic sphere, because many Ukrainians, so needed by the labor market, will simply leave. The times are pre-war, but we are already saying our farewells to the war refugees. Let their own compatriots worry about them now—that says it all. Ukraine is bleeding in the war, is under constant rocket and drone fire, and is going into debt for its defense. Now, on top of this, it will have to organize social assistance and build temporary housing for war refugees returned from wealthy, "fraternal" Poland.A Poland that will soon join the G20—the club of the twenty richest nations in the world. A Poland whose sovereignty currently hangs on the shoulder of the Ukrainian soldier."Debanderization" and the "Volhynian massacre," or reconciliation Polish-styleOur old grievances are more important to us than the current traumas of Ukrainians. In a country engulfed by war, exhumations of the victims of ethnic cleansing carried out by the UPA are ongoing. This was supposed to be a condition and a gateway to reconciliation. But is it so?Here, in the fourth year of the war, the Polish Sejm on June 4 unanimously elevated July 11 to the rank of a national holiday. This is the democrats' response to the radicalization of attitudes towards Ukrainians. It is not enough that we have the National Day of Remembrance of Poles—victims of the genocide committed by the OUN and UPA in the eastern lands of the Second Polish Republic; now it is an official state holiday.No one bothers their head with "details" like the fact that Polish citizens were killing Polish citizens. The previous president, Andrzej Duda, signed the law, even though it contradicts the constitution, which defines the Polish Nation as a community of all citizens—without distinguishing between Poles, Ukrainians, Germans, Belarusians, Jews, or Silesians.So, we are to remember only the ethnically Polish victims of the massacre, and not the Ukrainian or Jewish ones—even though they were also citizens of the Second Polish Republic. Where is the equality of citizens before the law? Does this mean we are pushing national minorities outside the brackets of Polishness? Or can only an ethnic Pole be a Polish citizen, as the midwife of Polish nationalism, Roman Dmowski, wanted?By the way, Dmowski, like Putin, believed that Ukrainians were not an independent people, but Ruthenians or Little Russians, and that one should cooperate with Russia on this matter."Where did Polish counterintelligence go when Russian agents of influence stroll through the Sejm like it's Nevsky Prospekt?"Earlier, under the patriotic blackmail of the right, the Sejm unanimously passed an amendment to the law on the Institute of National Remembrance, which introduced a three-year prison sentence for "denying the crimes of Ukrainian nationalists." The Constitutional Tribunal criticized this term because politicians did not specify who exactly was meant. Besides, it is known that Poles are "angels by nature," they didn't kill anyone, and if they did kill Ukrainians, it was only "in self-defense." And anyone who thinks otherwise will be dealt with by the prosecutor. Is this how to research the painful Polish-Ukrainian history?During the election campaign, Nawrocki cynically reopened the Volhynian wound. He made Ukraine's accession to NATO and the EU conditional on exhumations and "debanderization." We have not heard him change his mind since the elections, although the exhumations continue. On the contrary—twice in the last four months, he has spoken in the Mecca of "Kresy" circles—at the monument to the Volhynian massacre in Domosław in Podkarpacie.The 14-ton monument by Andrzej Pityński is as huge (20 meters high) as it is crude in its message. It is an eagle in flames, with a cross carved into its body, in which a three-pronged pitchfork—an allusion to the Trident—is stuck, with a child impaled on it. At the foot, there is a mother with an infant in the fire and children's heads impaled on stakes, also in flames. On the eagle's wings are the names of the localities where the murders committed by the UPA took place.Why do Poles believe that Ukrainians are attacking us?Nawrocki speaks of genocide and cites the highest figure—120,000 Poles, although this is not backed by scientific research.The numbers can be debated. Identifying the victims and counting them is the duty of historians, although this will not change the facts. The UPA massacres happened. Criminal nationalism was and is a disease of many nations, including Ukrainians."But there were also killings of Ukrainian civilians by Poles. There were forced deportations to the USSR, there was Operation Vistula. There is a difficult balance of mutual grievances. Nawrocki does not mention this. Is this a tone of reconciliation? Or confrontation?"From politicians, we hear: Poles have nothing to apologize to Ukrainians for, and the formula "We ask for forgiveness and we forgive" are empty words. Even though the democratic opposition, the Churches, John Paul II, and Polish presidents—including Lech Kaczyński—called for it.Qui bono? Who benefits from this?In a telephone conversation with Donald Trump on August 13, before the summit in Alaska, Nawrocki mentioned the 105th anniversary of the Battle of Warsaw—the victory over the Bolsheviks. We do not know if he added that without the heroism of the Ukrainian Sich units, which covered the rear of the retreating Polish army, this victory probably would not have happened."The reward from the Poles for Symon Petliura was the internment of his troops, and later the Polish-Soviet division of Ukraine at the conference in Riga."The Endeks made a deal with the Soviets. Then the Endeks from the Chjeno-Piast government, not wanting to irritate the USSR, in "gratitude" for the cooperation of our peoples—forced Petliura to leave Poland. He was assassinated in exile in France.It takes one's breath away how easily short-sighted national egoism, megalomania, and, of course, an unjustified sense of superiority over a fraternal nation are sprouting today. Russian disinformation reigns on the internet—it stupefies, provokes, and incites conflict. But why is it so effective? Why do so many Poles believe that we were attacked by "Ukrainian drones" and that "Ukraine dragged us into a war"? Why is the ground of provocation, on which the seed of hatred falls, so fertile?This is a matter for collective therapy. The thing is, therapy makes sense if we agree on the facts about ourselves. And with this, to put it mildly, we are worse off. This is even understandable. Just as no French historian managed to settle accounts with the collaborationist Vichy regime—the American historian Robert Paxton did it for them—so no Polish historian has broken the "Kresy" legend and Sienkiewicz's picturesque tales.Poles in the grip of pseudo-historyOnly Daniel Beauvois did this. His opus magnum "The Ukrainian Triangle" about relations in Volhynia, the Kyiv region, and Russian Podolia did not reach a wide audience. Too harsh, too difficult, and too true.Beauvois, far from Marxist sympathies, spent 25 years in Russian and Ukrainian archives. He describes the order that prevailed in the estates of the then Polish nobility. They resembled slavery on the cotton plantations of Louisiana. The Polish master was God, and the Ruthenian peasant was cattle; he could be beaten with impunity, or even killed. Beauvois writes about the hatred between the Polish Catholic manor and the Ruthenian Orthodox village. The accumulated religious, class, and ethnic contradictions repeatedly erupted in rebellions, which were brutally suppressed. The Polish nobility did not hesitate to call on Russian gendarmes for help to disperse the "rabble" with whips or sabers."I consider the disenchantment of pseudo-history to be the most urgent task for historians of Central and Eastern Europe. Why should a morbid memory be dressed in metaphysics? The fight against national megalomanias requires sobriety and reason, not patriotic ecstasies," said Beauvois."The researcher finally formulates the thesis of the Polish colonization of Ukraine—which seems incredible to us Poles: how could a nation that was itself oppressed for centuries and prides itself on not having colonies (because it was too weak for that, although the Second Polish Republic had great ambitions) oppress other nations?"As we can see, it could—even if it was not a conquest by "fire and sword," but a slow assimilation of Ruthenian elites into Polishness and the displacement of Orthodoxy in favor of Catholicism.It was precisely this "siphoning off" of elites—also Belarusian and Lithuanian—that led to these countries building their literature, culture, state-building thought, and national identity at the end of the 19th century—in opposition to Poland. In Ukraine, this resulted, among other things, in the formation of a radical nationalist current with all its fatal consequences.Does not our post-colonial superiority complex—of the master over the peasant—give rise today to that fertile ground on which the seed of Russian propaganda falls? After all, Ukraine is the "Kresy." Our "Polish Kresy.""Ukrainians must be absorbed." Self-government was liquidated, the army was sent for "pacification"We say "Polish society," although, of course, there is no single "we": some think one way, others another, but undoubtedly—the anti-Ukrainian trend is growing. The right has abandoned the "poisoned" legacy of Jerzy Giedroyc and Juliusz Mieroszewski and their ULB doctrine—the recognition of the right of Ukrainians, Lithuanians, and Belarusians to self-determination. Today, we are offered to bet on national egoism and assertiveness towards Kyiv. Dmowski's coffin has been revived, the spirit of the late 1930s Sanation has been revived.If the First Polish Republic and the Polish landowners during the partitions did not leave good memories of themselves, the Second Polish Republic did not correct this. Although it could have and was even obliged to do so after the Versailles system by the Council of Ambassadors, which entrusted it with the temporary administration of Eastern Galicia.It was supposed to enjoy the same autonomy that was introduced in Silesia.In the Ternopil, Lviv, and Stanislaviv voivodeships, sejmiks were to operate, divided into two equal curiae—Polish and Ukrainian.Decisions were to be made jointly.A Ukrainian university was to be established in Lviv.The Ukrainian language was to be an equal official language in these three voivodeships.A ban on state land colonization was to be in effect.The law that was supposed to implement these obligations was never passed. The authorities renamed Eastern Galicia to "Eastern Little Poland." Instead of autonomy, colonization and Polonization of all of Western Ukraine, including Volhynia, began—in the spirit of Roman Dmowski's incorporation concept.First, to dominate the Ukrainians, then to make them a minority in their own country, and finally—to absorb them. New—entirely Polish—villages were settled on lands parceled out under the agrarian reform. Land from the parcellation was distributed mainly to Polish colonists, which fueled neighborly envy and hidden hatred. Repeated "pacifications" by the Polish army, the extermination of Ukrainian elites, and the liquidation of public organizations, self-government, and cooperatives completed the picture.Let's stay a little longer in the realities of the Second Polish Republic. We were a sovereign state, masters in our own country, and we ourselves shaped the policy towards minorities. There was no one to blame. There were no occupiers. This is our responsibility.First Zaolzie, then Lithuania. A "power" mania like Mussolini'sIn 1938, the Second Polish Republic, together with Adolf Hitler, took part in the partition of Czechoslovakia when Polish troops occupied Zaolzie. A nationalist euphoria erupted in the nation. Similar to the one that gripped the Italians after Mussolini's conquest of Ethiopia, and also the Germans and Austrians after the Anschluss of Austria. Soon, Poland issued an ultimatum to little Lithuania. Then "marches with the slogan: 'Leader, lead us to Kaunas!' passed through the streets of Polish cities, as if the Polish coat of arms featured not a white eagle, but Koziołek Matołek," wrote Jan Józef Lipski.At the end of the 1930s, an obsession with Poland-as-a-power flourished among the Sanation elites. The Second Polish Republic was to lead the so-called Third Europe—from Finland through the Baltics, Hungary, and Romania all the way to the Adriatic and the Black Sea. No one cared that other countries did not want this.It is not difficult to recognize the modern props of this operetta repository in the activities of Andrzej Duda, which he proudly called the "foreign policy of the Presidential Palace." The government of Mateusz Morawiecki also picked it up. After all, foreign policy as an imitation of the outdated and compromised Sanation model did not come from nowhere. The elites of "Law and Justice" also had their "power" mania.The late Professor Waldemar Paruch was a researcher of the political practice of the Sanation. It is no wonder that under Morawiecki he became the head of the "brain of the state"—the Center for Strategic Analyses. He wrote a monograph "From State Consolidation to National Consolidation. National Minorities in the Political Thought of the Piłsudski Camp (1926–39)." Just like in the late Sanation era, the "PiS" consolidation of the state took place according to the recipe: "divide and rule, totalize the state, and make peace with the far right." Paruch knew what he was talking about.World champions of cockiness. Zelenskyy is right not only about the dronesHistorical analogies can be misleading, but there are some that cannot be ignored. It is worth taking a closer look—for the sake of changing fate.Comparing the "pre-war times," that is, those immediately preceding the September defeat of 1939, with the current pre-war time anno Domini 2025, one can recall several eloquent facts.The Second Polish Republic produced about 100,000 artillery shells per year, and now we produce less than half of that—30,000–40,000. Enough for a few days of combat.The pre-war flotilla had 18 relatively modern units; today the Polish navy has 10, and most of them are obsolete.Then there were 950,000 soldiers in reserve, today at most—550,000. We do not compare aviation, artillery, tanks, armored vehicles, and missile forces to avoid erroneous conclusions due to the gigantic technological progress. Something else is known: we are only hastily building up our anti-drone defense with the help of the Ukrainians who are experienced in this.We should not be offended by the words of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy: perhaps not very diplomatic, but everyone—except the minister of defense and the president—feels that they are painfully true. Comparing the air defense systems of Ukraine and Poland on Sky News, Zelenskyy said: "This is not addressed to our Polish friends—they are not in a state of war, so it is understandable that they are not ready for such things. But even if you compare: 810 drones, of which we shot down over 700, and they had, I think, 19 and shot down four. They did not have missile or ballistic strikes then. And, of course, they will not be able to save people if there is a massive attack.""A week later, Zelenskyy reported that over 90 Russian drones were heading towards Poland, of which 70 were shot down by Ukrainians over their own territory."You shouldn't snap back at Zelenskyy, Mr. Minister, Mr. President, because one thing that hasn't changed since the pre-war period is our cocky turning up of our noses. In this, we have no equal. In 1939, we were "strong, united, and ready" and were not going to "give up even a button."And yet, even before the start of hostilities, the commander-in-chief, Marshal Edward Rydz-Śmigły, so confident in the strength of his army, in August 1939 ordered his valuable belongings—furniture, equipment, and paintings—to be transported by a special military convoy to Romania. After the attack by Hitler's Germany, he and his staff, starting from September 10, followed their furniture to Kuty and crossed the border over the bridge on the Cheremosh River. The army had no communication with the commander-in-chief because the staff officers, in their haste and chaos, had lost the ciphers and codes for field communication somewhere.Today, we also trumpet to the whole world that we have the strongest army in NATO, that we are passing the test, that we are spending 5% of GDP on defense—hmm, before the war it was 10%—that a Polish pilot "will fly even on a barn door," that "we will not give up an inch of Polish land"... But what do we know about our army? Only how it has been tested. And our army has not been tested—and may it not have to be.Revindication and Polonization through the burning of churchesLet's look at the pre-war period—the states of mind then—in one particular aspect: the attitude towards Ukrainians. The sources are drawn from the collections of the Archive of New Records in Warsaw, the Central Military Archive in Rembertów, and archives in Lviv.What was the Polish government, its field administration, what were the generals and colonels doing on the eve of the war? In 1939, the "Ukrainian question" did not seem as important for the country's security as it does today. And yet, every attack on the Ukrainian minority was a gift to the Soviets, whose propaganda falsely interpreted the partition of September 17 as having to "protect the persecuted Ukrainians and Belarusians."We have already mentioned the multiple "pacifications" of Ukrainian villages by the Polish army, the arrests of intellectuals and activists.But in 1938, a new dynamic began: from May to July in the Chełm region and Southern Podlachia, the Polish authorities coordinatedly demolished or burned 127 Orthodox churches, chapels, and prayer houses—including many historical monuments. A brigade of workers would arrive in the villages under the protection of the police or the army, and in a few weeks, the "job" was done. Recalcitrant believers were beaten and put on trial. Icons were destroyed, spiritual monuments were looted, and iconostases were desecrated. Some of the churches were converted into Roman Catholic churches. This was part of a "revindication-Polonization" campaign."Revindication"—because they claimed that the majority were "Russified" peasantry and Polish petty gentry who, with a little "help," would return to the embrace of the motherland."Polonization"—no explanation needed. The Polish state was to be ethnically homogeneous—according to the Endek template of "Pole-Catholic." The government promised land to the "Poles" who would "return to the mother," that is, to the bosom of the Catholic Church.After the destruction of the churches, the Ruthenians/Ukrainians were forced to attend mass at the Roman Catholic church. The Church rubbed its hands—the police and the army took on the task of "converting" the infidels for it."Priests, without bothering, conducted mass conversions. The number of "Poles" increased, the number of churches decreased."The Polonization campaign in 1938–39 was in full swing in all eastern voivodeships. The instructions for the Command of the VI Corps District of the Polish Army in Lviv from January 1939 regarding the "strengthening of Polishness" in the Ternopil Voivodeship ordered the campaign to be completed by the end of 1941—to be in time for the new census. They obliged to "break at any cost the Ukrainian terror that will rage against activists and new converts [Poles]." They proposed to increase the number of State Police posts and introduce collective responsibility, etc."To the non-Polish population—only in Polish." Who does Przemysław Czarnek resembleOnly one high-ranking official of the Second Polish Republic—a friend of Józef Piłsudski, the Volhynian voivode Henryk Józewski—pursued a policy of dialogue with local Ukrainians and bet on their state, not national, assimilation. But after the Marshal's death, Józewski's position in Volhynia weakened. Opponents accused him of "favoring the Ukrainians too much." He himself resigned precisely in protest against the destruction of churches. Józewski's "Volhynian experiment"—the complete opposite of the pacification policy of the Sanation colonels—is considered one of the most consistent and comprehensive attempts to solve the Ukrainian question in the Second Polish Republic.After Józewski's departure, a five-year "Polonization campaign of Volhynia and the Chełm region" was established. It was envisaged that by 1944, Poles would become a majority in Volhynia, where in 1939 Ukrainians constituted about 70% of the population, "Polish bastions" were to be created there, and—what is particularly insidious—a regional version of Ukrainian national identity, different from the Galician one.But the effects did not meet expectations. Only 10% of the Orthodox in the Chełm region were persuaded to change their faith. Meanwhile, the military was counting on the conversion of up to 350,000 people in Volhynia, the Chełm region, and Podlachia. New instructions ordered the administration to be cleansed of persons of "non-Polish origin."The head of the revindication campaign in the Lublin region, Colonel Marian Turkowski, on January 24, 1939, stressed that "in Poland, only Poles are the masters, full-fledged citizens, and only they have a say. All others are merely tolerated."In his instructions, he noted: "To cultivate among the Polish masses a superiority complex towards the non-Polish population. The Polish language should be an expression of superiority—both cultural and civic. A Pole should address the non-Polish population only in Polish. And a state or self-government official can by no means use any language other than Polish."On February 23, 1939, at the Lublin Voivodeship Office, representatives of the government, the army, and the local administration discussed how to "solve the Ukrainian problem." The Lublin voivode, Jerzy Albin de Tramecourt, proposed a settlement program for the Polish petty gentry. He said: "We must break up the established historical concentrations of Ukrainians!" The entire Lublin and Chełm regions were to become completely free of Orthodox and Ukrainians.Hitler and Stalin did not allow the matter to be brought to an end. In his Ukrainophobia, voivode de Tramecourt was matched only by a worthy successor—Przemysław Czarnek. It is enough to recall his actions and statements regarding Ukrainians when he was the Lublin voivode. After the war began, he quieted down, but not for long. The question returns like a mantra: Qui bono? Who benefited from this?In March-April 1939, the "massive stage" of the "revindication-Polonization" campaign began. Lieutenant Colonel Stanisław Sosabowski—yes, the famous commander of the 1st Parachute Brigade in World War II—coordinated it in the southeast of the Lublin region until March 1939.In his memorandum to the authorities, he encouraged "going further" after the occupation of Zaolzie. He wrote that "there are conditions for an almost complete revindication of the so-called minorities of this area," what is needed is "strength and consistency."He warned against "indecisiveness, which causes unforeseeable damage to the cause." He reminded of the need for a "mass conversion to Roman Catholicism, which in this area is identified with nationality."In 1939, conversions became massive: Colonel Turkowski reported that from March 24 to April 2, 8,000 Orthodox were "revindicated" to Roman Catholicism.From these events to the German aggression—five months, to the Soviet attack—another 17 days. And the ruling Sanation in Poland could find no better occupation than the "revindication" and Polonization of Ukrainians in Lemkivshchyna, the Chełm region, Eastern Galicia, and Volhynia. To the very last days, they sought at all costs to "solve the Ukrainian problem" and get rid of the "Jewish question"—for in the policy of the Sanation camp, both issues rhymed.It is worth remembering: in the September campaign, 125,000 servicemen of Ukrainian nationality fought in Polish uniforms, of whom 8–9 thousand gave their lives for Poland.Neither Ukrainian nor Jewish. Industry and trade must be PolishThe death of Marshal Józef Piłsudski on May 12, 1935, coincided with the end of the economic recession, the balancing of the budget, and obtaining a loan from France for rearmament (1936). Under the leadership of the new Marshal, Edward Rydz-Śmigły, an ambitious plan for the development of the defense industry and the modernization of the army was developed.At the turn of February and March 1936, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the Treasury Eugeniusz Kwiatkowski presented a four-year plan for economic development. It involved, among other things, the concentration of arms production in the Vistula and San interfluve, with a reliance on the Bug. The Central Industrial District (COP) included 35 counties of the Lviv and Lublin voivodeships, along with the Chełm region."The ambitious military plans were accompanied by the intention of profound social changes within the framework of the "totalization" of public life. The government's "Gazeta Polska" wrote that totalization is: the concentration of state power; a planned economy; a single organization of the nation [exclusively ethnic Poles]. Sounds familiar."The Sanation wanted to displace not only Ukrainians. The instructions of the command headquarters of the district in Lublin honestly stated: "It should be remembered that anti-Semitism, which manifests itself in an economic boycott and the displacement of Jews from trade and industrial establishments, will yield positive results for the state only when the places vacated by them are taken by Poles capable of running them. The occupation of Jewish places by other minorities should be considered harmful." This is how the Piłsudskiites ended up as executors of the program of the far right.In the "Tygodnik Społeczno-Gospodarczy" of January 29, 1936, a programmatic article "COP must be Polish" was published. It stated: "On the territory of the Central Industrial District, a NEW, SPECIAL TYPE OF MAN is emerging—the implementer of the COP. Deputy Prime Minister Eugeniusz Kwiatkowski drew attention to this phenomenon in his Sejm speech."Hence the conclusion: "Only a Pole can work in the COP, and a Pole not in the formal sense, but one who belongs to the Polish Nation—the only one who guarantees proper care for its development."Two solutions were envisaged: "a legislative ban on the settlement of the non-Polish element on the territory of the COP" and "a legislative obligation to resettle the non-Polish element from the territory of the COP [Ukrainians and Jews] to other parts of Poland, if their complete emigration from Poland cannot yet be carried out."The authorities were thinking primarily of the Jews—after all, they predominated in crafts, trade, and urban property and did not fit the image of the "new type of man—the Polish pioneer." But despite the efforts of Foreign Minister Józef Beck, Poland did not acquire overseas colonies to massively resettle the Jewish population there, so it latched onto the idea of "internal deportations."The bravura attack of the "petty gentry" with the nationalist Bolesław PiaseckiThe aforementioned petty gentry was to become an outpost of Polishness in Galicia and Volhynia, so in February 1938, at a congress under the auspices of the army and the Catholic clergy in Przemyśl, the Union of Petty Gentry was created. The chairman was the priest-dean Antoni Miodziński, and the patronage was taken by Marshal Rydz-Śmigły. The work of the union was managed by General Janusz Głuchowski, deputy minister of military affairs. At the beginning of 1939, structures were created in Volhynia and Polissia.In the "power-colonial" blindness, the idea of Polonizing the Ruthenian lands by demonstrating "superiority" to the Ruthenian "rabble" was born. We, the Lyakhs, are the gentry; we are the masters; we are Latin Catholics; we bring you the civilization of the West.Who was supposed to implement this?With unconcealed shame, one recalls the cooperation of the Sanation's Camp of National Unity with the chauvinistic and totalitarian National Radical Movement "Falanga."Supposedly, it was only an "episode," and the cooperation ended in January 1938, when Colonel Adam Koc was removed from the leadership of the organization.Meanwhile, as Professor Szymon Rudnicki writes in his monograph "Falanga. The National Radical Movement," at the end of 1938, the authorities approached the leader of "Falanga," Bolesław Piasecki, with a request to send his people to the leadership of the Union of Petty Gentry.The proposal was accepted. The Falangists joined the governing bodies of the Union and edited "Pobudka." Piasecki proclaimed: "Great Poland in our vision is a Nation and a State with such a powerfully organized will that it will not only be able to free the Republic from over four million Jews, not only stop the Ukrainization of four and a half million of the Kresy population, but also—enable Poland to fulfill its historical mission."Olgierd Szpakowski wrote on the pages of the weekly "Falanga" that in Little Poland "a war is going on," and "Polishness had to move from defense to offense." To date, about 200,000 souls have been "revindicated," the goal is another 700,000. He saw the solution in "revolutionary Polish nationalism," whose task is to replace the slogan "Lyakhs beyond the San" with the policy "Ukrainians beyond the Bug, beyond the Sluch, to the Dnieper."Szpakowski was right: the Second Polish Republic, on the eve of the war with Germany and Soviet Russia, was at war with its own citizens—the Ukrainians.The state of mind of the military of that time is conveyed by the words of General Gustaw Paszkiewicz, a Polonizer, commander of the 12th Infantry Division stationed in Ternopil. "The territory, natural resources, and the border with friendly Romania," he reported, "cause Eastern Little Poland to be one of the key components of Poland's power. Today, the value of these lands as a forefield of the Central Industrial District is growing many times over. If we also take into account that these are the territories that lead us by the shortest route to the Black Sea and the Balkans, then they cannot be denied one of the primary roles in the entire problematics of the State's strength."Andrzej Duda—a worthy successor to General Paszkiewicz—also dreamed of an "Intermarium" under the Polish banner, spear, and hussar wing. One can accuse us of anachronism, but one still wants to shout: "A doctor! A doctor!"Carpathian Ruthenia. "These Sich riflemen must be shot"A little-known episode in Poland is the emergence in 1938 of Carpathian Ruthenia, an ephemeral autonomous state. It existed briefly—between the Munich Agreement (September 30, 1938, as a result of which Germany occupied the Sudetenland, the Hungarians—southern Slovakia, the Poles—Zaolzie) and the full annexation of Czechoslovakia by Hitler on March 15, 1939. Then Hungary seized all of Transcarpathian Ukraine.The Sanation panicked. They realized that Hitler's next target could be Poland. The fear subsided after the signing of a military alliance with Great Britain on March 31 and its guarantees of the independence of the Second Polish Republic. Kwiatkowski's planners returned to work. This time, a 15-year plan envisaged large investments that were to lead to the "Polonization of cities," that is, in the language of anti-Semites: to "de-Jewification." The "Ukrainian problem" was planned to be solved much earlier.And an urgent current matter appeared. From Hungarian-occupied Carpathian Ruthenia, Ukrainians—Polish citizens—were returning to Poland. These were mostly members of the paramilitary formations of the so-called Sich, who had previously voluntarily gone to the Carpathians to support the new state. Now they had to flee. They wanted to make their way home—to the territory of the Second Polish Republic."The Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army, General Wacław Stachiewicz, informed the commanders of Marshal Rydz-Śmigły's order—to shoot at members of the Carpathian Sich who would try to cross into Poland.""These Sich riflemen," he reported, "should be shot, and if they surrender—immediately disarmed and interned. Another thing is that the Marshal would not want them to get to our territory at all, even if they were interned. But the Marshal's main desire is that we do not burden ourselves with all sorts of scum who will want to sneak over to us from there."The latest historical research has confirmed: the Polish Army carried out the Marshal's order with "a surplus." At three Carpathian passes, executions of citizens of the Second Polish Republic from the defeated units of the Carpathian Ukrainian Army, who sought to return home, took place. The Ukrainian historian Oleksandr Pahiria established: during one execution at the Veretsky (Tukhla) Pass, over 40 Sich riflemen died. In total, at the three passes—over 120 people.This was a crime—regardless of the fact that later a part of the Sich riflemen who remained in Hungary created the Ukrainian Legion, which operated under the wing of the Abwehr, took part in the September campaign on the side of the Germans, and in 1941, the infamous battalions "Nachtigall" and "Roland" were formed on its basis.They also set about "liquidating the OUN" and Ukrainian nationalism: by mid-September, 4–5 thousand people ended up in prisons and in the camp in Bereza Kartuska."One of the biggest mysteries of the Second Polish Republic was the complete disregard for the threat from the USSR and the possibility of its alliance with the Third Reich—even after August 23, when Moscow and Berlin signed an agreement on the partition of Poland."In the calculations after the September defeat, military intelligence blamed the MFA, led by Beck, and the diplomats—the employees of the II Department of the General Staff (intelligence and counterintelligence).Undoubtedly, the capabilities of Polish intelligence were seriously limited due to the destruction of spy networks at the turn of the 1920s-30s and the extermination of the Polish population during the so-called "Polish operation" of the NKVD in 1937–38. What's worse—a painful analogy—the Soviets had agents in the highest echelons of the Second Polish Republic: Tadeusz Kobylański, Beck's closest associate and head of the eastern and political department of the MFA, served them. In such a situation, the Soviets' possibilities for disinformation and influence on Polish policy were enormous.And finally: in August 1938, Stalin dissolves the Communist Party of Poland. Also the CP of Western Ukraine and the CP of Western Belarus.The decision is unprecedented—Stalin never dissolved any other communist party. In the Second Polish Republic, this was assessed as another manifestation of the Soviets' weakness. Władysław Gomułka, his biographer Andrzej Werblan, and the then member of the CP of Western Ukraine, Ozjasz Szechter, were of a different opinion: they believed that this was preparation for a Soviet-German alliance. By dissolving the KPP, Stalin was signaling the possibility of a return to the "Rapallo line," that is, an alliance between Moscow and Berlin with désintéressement regarding the fate of Poland and the Poles. Polish intelligence and analytical centers did not grasp this.From the point of view of Stalin's interests, the anti-Ukrainian and anti-Jewish actions of Rydz-Śmigły's team were an ideal scenario: the Soviets could present their participation in the partition of the Second Polish Republic on the international stage as "assistance to the brotherly Ukrainians and Belarusians, oppressed by the Polish gentry." This was precisely the main line of Soviet propaganda after September 17.President Nawrocki's dangerous gameUkraine is waging a difficult, full-scale war with Russia. Russia has long been waging a hybrid war against us: sabotage, arson, cyberattacks, GPS signal jamming, mass disinformation, black propaganda, migration pressure on the eastern border, provocations, fanning fears, violation of airspace, traditional espionage, and finally—recently—drone attacks.The conclusions are self-evident.Every time Poland cooperated with Ukraine, we always benefited from it, and Russia lost. Every time the "gene of superiority," the "gene of domination" won in us—Ukraine lost, Poland lost, and Russia won. It couldn't be simpler—and it's impossible not to understand this.Karol Nawrocki has just submitted a draft law to the Sejm that prohibits the promotion of "Banderism." There are so many necessary laws, but, in Nawrocki's opinion, without this one, Poles "cannot do without." As if pulling out the most painful and conflict-ridden cards of history now is the highest national priority. Of course—for Moscow."Nawrocki announced a "diplomatic offensive," but he did not go to Kyiv. And he won't be going anytime soon, judging by his consistently hostile policy towards Ukraine."Let us recall: back in July, Ukrainians signaled that Polish and Lithuanian SIM cards were installed in Russian drones shot down over Ukraine. And this indicated that they were supposed to fly to Poland and Lithuania.At the same time, experts from the European analytical collective Res Futura warned: in September, the Russians will launch a powerful disinformation strike against Poland. And so it happened—the raid of Russian drones on September 9 and 10 was accompanied by an extremely strong offensive on the network. Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski spoke about this.The goal is to hammer into Poles' heads that the drones were "Ukrainian," that "Ukraine is dragging us into a war," that "NATO can do nothing," and that Belarus and Russia are "generally friendly states."The replacement of Donald Tusk with Karol Nawrocki during the online conversation of European leaders with Donald Trump after his meeting with Putin in Alaska was an act detrimental to the state—because on August 18–20 in Washington, where key issues for Ukraine, Europe, and NATO were being decided, Poland was not represented.If Poland's absence in Washington could have been an "accident at work" for Nawrocki, then there is no accident in his openly anti-Ukrainian, and thus pro-Russian, actions. The veto on the law on aid to Ukraine fueled anti-Ukrainian sentiments, creating an ideal background for Putin's action against Poland. The Presidential Palace has drawn no conclusions and intends to continue down this fatal path.There was already one "uncompromising" presidentProfessor Stanisław Pigoń from the Jagiellonian University, associated with the peasant movement, was part of a group of professors who went to President Ignacy Mościcki in 1939. They explained: the situation is extraordinary, war is almost inevitable. A government of national unity is needed, an understanding with the opposition, gestures towards the émigrés—Witos and Korfanty.Mościcki rejected any compromise. Then, in the face of war with Hitler, he said: "Józef Piłsudski's camp will not renounce responsibility for Poland."How prescient and far-sighted was Ignacy Mościcki, who did not renounce his Swiss citizenship. A few months later, he left the country and settled in neutral Switzerland.Today in Poland, it is 1938. But September 1939 is not inevitable. There is no fate of history—there is only the history of foolishness in Poland. Let's not add another chapter to it.Article published in the newspaper Wyborcza on October 8, 2025authors Myrosław Czech, Jarosław Kurski
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Kremlin to continue Moldova destabilization efforts through proxy forces — analyst
Kremlin to continue Moldova destabilization efforts through proxy forces — analyst
Political analyst Ivan Capsamun stated this on Espreso TV."The current government of Moldova will not concede its victory, especially since it was achieved under difficult conditions. The overall election result turned out to be better than even most expected. Maia Sandu and her party have retained a single-party majority in parliament, and this is the most important positive outcome for Moldova itself, as well as for its neighbors: Ukraine, Romania, and the European Union in general," noted Capsamun.According to the political analyst, after a resounding defeat, Igor Dodon's party is forced to demonstrate at least some activity to its curators in Moscow. That is why attempts were made to bring people out to protest, and now, lawsuits will likely be filed. However, Sandu's victory is final, and it is unlikely that anything can influence the election results."Russia, without a doubt, will not leave Moldova in peace. It will continue destabilization through its proxy forces that have entered the parliament, and not only through them. The country will continue to be 'shaken up,' as it was before. Moscow allocated significant funds for these processes: bank accounts were opened for citizens, and money was transferred to cards," the journalist emphasized.He also noted that Russia will continue to use various tools in its hybrid war against Moldova, trying to change the country's political course."But despite everything, it is very good that the government has won a convincing victory, and the course that Moldova has followed to this day will be continued," Capsamun summarized.Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov reacted to the results of the parliamentary elections in Moldova, in which the pro-European party of leader Maia Sandu won. He claims that thousands of Moldovans were allegedly not allowed to vote in the Russian Federation.
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Zelenskyy: Ukraine's long-range drones highly effective
Zelenskyy: Ukraine's long-range drones highly effective
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported on the results of a briefing by the head of the Security Service, Vasyl Maliuk, who provided information on the service's combat operations and the successes of the Ukrainian forces."A good report from SBU head Vasyl Maliuk. We discussed the combat work of the service in detail. Thank you to all the warriors involved," Zelenskyy noted.According to Maliuk, the Ukrainian long-range missile-drones developed by the SBU are demonstrating increasing effectiveness. They have already caused significant losses to Russian air defense.The head of the SBU separately highlighted the work of the fighters from the Special Operations Center A in the Pokrovsk direction."Russian troops have been ordered to storm our positions at any cost," Maliuk emphasized. "Our SBU warriors alone, and only in this sector, are destroying over 100 occupiers daily."According to the head of the SBU, in September, the warriors of the Special Operations Center A eliminated 3,028 Russian servicemen, with each case being confirmed by documentation.The Security Service also continues to actively expose and destroy Russian agent networks and is preparing new operations aimed at diminishing the military potential of the Russian Federation.On October 3, long-range attack drones from the Special Operations Center A struck a target 1,400 km away in the city of Orsk, Russia. The drones hit the Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery in the Orenburg region.
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Taiwan vows to end Russian naphtha imports if EU demands action
Taiwan vows to end Russian naphtha imports if EU demands action
Reuters reported the information.Taiwan's Economy Minister Kung Ming-hsin announced on October 8 that the country's private oil refineries stand ready to halt Russian naphtha purchases if the EU makes such a request. The pledge highlights Taiwan's efforts to align with Western sanctions designed to choke off Russia's fossil fuel revenues—a critical funding source for its ongoing war against Ukraine.While Taiwan's state-owned energy companies stopped buying Russian oil and gas in 2023, private refineries have continued importing naphtha, a crucial petrochemical feedstock, primarily through open market tenders. Minister Kung revealed that his ministry has engaged in discussions with Formosa Petrochemical, Asia's largest naphtha importer, and consulted directly with EU officials regarding future compliance measures."We will respect and abide by EU and G7 norms," Kung stated. "According to what I understand, next year the EU might say no more purchases... If the EU says next year, no more purchases, then they will make no more purchases."The announcement comes amid mounting criticism from international watchdog groups. A coalition of non-governmental organizations, including the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, recently condemned Taiwan's continued Russian naphtha imports. Their report revealed that Taiwan's purchases skyrocketed sixfold between 2022 and the first half of 2025, totaling 1.9 million tons and generating approximately $1.7 billion in mineral extraction tax revenues for the Kremlin—enough to finance 170,000 Russian Gerbera drones used in strikes against Ukraine.Taiwan and India have emerged as the primary destinations for Russian naphtha exports this year, with low prices and robust regional demand attracting buyers. Taipei recently overtook India to become the world's top importer of Russian naphtha.Despite the commercial ties, Taiwan has consistently condemned Russia's invasion and expressed strong support for Ukraine's sovereignty. Although Taipei lacks formal diplomatic relations with Kyiv, it has provided humanitarian aid and endorsed international sanctions against Moscow.The island faces its own security challenges, as China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has intensified military pressure in recent years. Recent reports from The Washington Post indicate that Russia has been assisting China in preparing for a potential invasion of Taiwan, including training and arming Chinese airborne forces.Several media outlets recently published a study claiming that Taiwan is paying Russia billions for oil. Why is this claim inaccurate?
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U.S. steps up military backing for Ukraine and isolation of Russia
U.S. steps up military backing for Ukraine and isolation of Russia
It is worth noting that military-technical support for Ukraine has not ceased for a single day, despite relevant statements by White House representatives and media reports. This includes intelligence sharing as well as other forms of military-technical cooperation.At present, the United States is pursuing a policy of effectively isolating the Russian Federation in the post-Soviet space.This includes events in the Caucasus: the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It also concerns the U.S. position on Kazakhstan, a CSTO country. Notably, it was Kazakhstan that effectively initiated an increase in oil production, contrary to OPEC countries’ decisions. This led to a drop in prices and, accordingly, multibillion-dollar losses for the occupying country. It also includes developments in Belarus, Moldova, and elsewhere. Within this framework of U.S. actions, a key role is assigned to Ukraine—particularly at a moment of Russia’s weakening.For even if we analyze the successful strikes by Ukraine’s Defense Forces on oil refineries and other legitimate military targets on the territory of the Russian Federation, without real-time intelligence sharing this would have been impossible.I would note that the White House has been consistent in its policy even during the unfolding of a shutdown in the U.S. (the suspension of operations of some government bodies), which could theoretically affect the course of military-technical cooperation with Ukraine.I emphasize: attention should be paid not to statements, but to Washington’s actions."The redeployment of a nuclear arsenal to the territory of the United Kingdom for the first time since 2008. The deployment of nuclear-powered submarines to Russia’s shores. B-2 strategic bombers flying overhead the Russian dictator during his visit to Alaska to meet with Trump."The stationing of U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft—designed for anti-submarine, air-defense, and reconnaissance missions—in Northern Europe is occurring as NATO strengthens its defenses in the Baltic region amid the Russian threat to undersea cables and pipelines and suspicious drone activity in Poland, Denmark, and Norway. The ongoing deployment of U.S. military forces in support of NATO, including destroyers that operated near Russia’s Arctic region at the end of August, follows a sharp shift in President Donald Trump’s stance on the Russia–Ukraine war.In addition, a state-of-the-art U.S. aircraft carrier is currently off the coast of Denmark, sending a clear message to the Russians about how events may unfold amid rising tensions in the Baltic Sea and in European airspace. In other words, claims that the United States has not changed the nature of its practical actions toward Russia are utter nonsense. This is a blatant piece of disinformation pushed by Western media—possibly with a nudge from Russian special services.As for further U.S. actions in support of Ukraine, intelligence sharing is ongoing. I repeat—24/7 in real time. Moreover, the United States is expanding the range of U.S.-made strike capabilities provided, including for attacks on targets within Russia.Specifically, ERAM missiles with a range of 450 km. But the key point is the number to be transferred to Ukraine—3,300. Compared to ATACMS missiles, which have a range of 300 km, this is a revolutionary leap. The possible transfer of Tomahawk or Barracuda missiles, which have slightly shorter ranges, is a serious argument for compelling the Russian Federation to make peace."The U.S. has not merely changed its rhetoric regarding the Russian Federation; it has moved to blunt military-political pressure. By calling Russia a “paper tiger,” Trump made clear its role on the global geopolitical map."This is quite a clear humiliation. Trump bluntly said: “I’m tired of Putin, of his failure to keep his promises.” And if that’s the case, then not only the rhetoric changes, but also concrete actions. At the same time, I caution Ukrainians against expecting rapid changes at the front simply due to the arrival of American weaponry.One should not expect another wunderwaffe—a miracle weapon; the Tomahawk will not be one. Yes, they will significantly weaken the occupier’s logistics and energy capabilities. But it will not be the kind of wonder-weapon that would allow, say, a victory parade on Red Square to be reported this winter.Commenting on U.S. President Donald Trump’s words that the decision to transfer Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv has to some extent been made, the spokesperson for the Russian dictator, Peskov, stated that it is necessary to wait for more concrete statements from Washington regarding the supply of cruise missiles to Ukraine.“As for the supply of weapons, first they happen, and only then statements are made—at least that was always the case under the Biden administration; we know this well. This time we’ll see,” he said.Specially for EspresoAbout the author: Dmytro Sniehyriov, military expert, co-chair of the civic initiative Prava Sprava.The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.
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Russia terrorizes civilians but lacks power to seize major Ukrainian cities — expert
Russia terrorizes civilians but lacks power to seize major Ukrainian cities — expert
Military and political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko shared his analysis, Obozrevatel reports.First, it is necessary to determine whether there is a threat of a Russian offensive in the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv regions, with a risk of capturing the regional capitals.As of now, three Russian groupings from the North military formation are positioned along the border with these regions: Sumy direction (50,000–60,000 troops), Kharkiv direction (50,000 troops), Chernihiv direction (12,000 troops).In addition, around 130,000 Russian troops near Pokrovsk and the 58th Army in the Zaporizhzhia sector lack the strength to seize major cities. Their actions remain tactical, focused on local battles near Huliaipole and attempts to advance toward Pokrovsk along the N-15 route.“The Russians currently lack the forces and resources to launch any offensive aimed at occupying an entire region or a major regional center. The available Russian forces are only sufficient for a slow, creeping advance on individual sectors, not for simultaneous large-scale assaults,” Kovalenko explained.Do Russian forces have the capability to render these cities uninhabitable?Fears that Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, and even, oddly enough, Dnipro could become uninhabitable cities are now voiced with growing volume and panic.Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Kharkiv has endured bombings, artillery strikes, blackouts, and water shortages yet remains under constant attack, raising questions about its habitability. Similarly, Kherson faces regular shelling, air strikes, and FPV drones targeting civilians, putting its livability in doubt.“A city’s habitability is a subjective judgment. For some, two or three days without electricity is enough to leave, while others stayed in their homes without power, water, or heat even as fighting raged nearby. Everyone forms their own assessment of a city’s livability, but it is certain that the Russians will strike energy infrastructure, attempting to leave us without light, heat, and water ahead of winter,” the military analyst noted.Moreover, recent strikes indicate that Russia aims to create a food crisis in certain regions, targeting a farm in Kharkiv region that killed enough pigs to supply meat for a month, and previously hitting grain storage in Odesa region. Russia seeks not only to plunge Ukraine into darkness and cold but also to trigger shortages ahead of winter, when demand for essential goods rises.“So, everyone defines for themselves what makes a city livable and when evacuation is necessary, as what feels like a normal morning for a Ukrainian can seem like the end of the world to a European,” Kovalenko concluded.
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Ukrainian parliament passes law adopting European-style support for farm sector
Ukrainian parliament passes law adopting European-style support for farm sector
The Verkhovna Rada's Telegram channel writes.The law aims to make state support for farmers clearer, more transparent, and more effective. It will help better use budget funds and create simple rules for agribusiness.With this law, Ukraine introduces a modern system for supporting the agricultural sector that is transparent, technologically advanced, and accountable. It will ensure fair distribution of funds among producers and bring Ukrainian legislation closer to EU standards.The key innovation is the creation of a Paying Agency, which will oversee all support programs. Every hryvnia of state aid will have a digital trace — from application submission to actual payment.Another important element is the Integrated Administration and Control System (IACS). Together with the Agricultural Data System (ADS), it will ensure comprehensive accounting of land, production, and farm conditions, as well as automatic verification of aid recipients.Three levels of control are envisaged: automated, documentary, and physical. This will reduce corruption risks and allow violations to be detected immediately during payments. Those who break the rules will have to return the funds and will temporarily lose the right to participate in support programs.According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, after the launch of ISAK in 2027, the transparency of agricultural fund distribution will increase by 60%, while the number of misallocated payments will drop threefold.On September 15, it was reported that the yield of the first sunflower harvests in Ukraine was 21% lower than last year.
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Only Ukraine’s victory can eliminate Russian threat
Only Ukraine’s victory can eliminate Russian threat
Putin does not look like a victor — this is even visible visually. Moreover, his insane gaze strongly resembles that of the main Soviet terrorist of the 20th century, Lenin, on the eve of his death.As is known, the eyes are the mirror of the soul. And although one may doubt that the Kremlin fiend has a soul at all, seeing, even once, the deranged and hunted look of Moscow’s leader allows one to draw a logical conclusion: even he has begun to realize that the end of his criminal regime may come much sooner than anyone can imagine."The Russian dictator has no plan for victory. Unfortunately, the collective West also lacks a real plan to neutralize Putin — especially when it comes to devising a strategy against a totalitarian revanchist gone mad with impunity, who already dreams of being the ruler of the world."The Russian leader has certainly grasped the unspoken message of U.S. President Donald Trump, which can be decoded by recalling what Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once said about the Iran-Iraq war: “It is a pity that they cannot both lose.”This definition today fits the Russian-Ukrainian war perfectly, as it explains why our American and European allies do not provide Ukraine with full-scale support — aid that could stop the Moscow hordes and help liberate Ukrainian lands from their control.The question is whether Putin has a strategy to exit the criminal war he started in Ukraine. It is obvious that he has begun to realize he cannot win. Yet at the same time, he does not want to lose or admit defeat. This is reinforced by President Trump’s stance, which is still undecided on whether to take the right side of history and truly help Ukraine or continue with partial U.S. aid — effectively prolonging Putin’s war.Meanwhile, more influential experts in the U.S. are trying to convey to decision-makers that critical elements necessary for Ukraine’s victory are lacking — a victory that could be a key factor in U.S. relations with both China and Russia. Partial support for Ukraine cannot be justified, yet it has dominated Western policy for years.This coincides with a situation in which Donald Trump either does not wish to or cannot effectively oppose Putin, and his actions, or inaction, encourage Russian aggression."Trump’s approaches clearly weaken U.S. influence and undermine NATO’s authority, yet this seems of little concern to the American president, who shows an inexplicable attraction to the Russian dictator that is difficult to explain."Ukraine is now paying an extremely high price for not having stopped Putin when he invaded Crimea in 2014. In the Kremlin’s worldview, Ukraine is just the first step toward seizing more territory from its neighbors. It will be much cheaper to stop him now than to wait for future wars. Moreover, Moscow’s provocations in the skies over Poland and Estonia indicate that the dictator has no intention of stopping.Ultimately, it comes down to when the Russian elite will find a way to get rid of Putin. Victory or defeat, he will not survive the end of the war. If he loses, he cannot hold onto the presidency because he is a failure. If he wins, the economy will be in ruins, and he will leave office as a political bankrupt.The Russian establishment understands all this, which is why it is trying through trusted figures to secretly negotiate with the West outside of Putin’s team. However, since their demands toward Ukraine do not differ much from Putin’s, rapprochement with the U.S. and Europe seems problematic.One possible scenario that emerges is a new Russian revolution or a palace coup to topple Putin’s regime — the latter seeming far more realistic than the former. The usurper could easily be eliminated by someone, perhaps by members of Putin’s own security detail. But since the families of those guards are effectively held hostage by the authorities, none of them has yet dared to take that risk.If Donald Trump gives up his “infatuation” with Putin and supplies Ukraine with all the weapons it needs, we could witness Russia’s defeat. That outcome would strengthen Western democracies — because if Russia truly won, Western democratic governments would face grave danger."Putin lives in a fantasy world where Russia was once a great power that competed with Western states. In reality, the USSR was never truly a great power, and in trying to compete with the collective West on equal terms, it was ruined and fell apart."The Russian revolution overthrew the old aristocracy, but it was replaced by a communist nomenklatura that sought to control everything from top to bottom and was riddled with total corruption. The USSR then collapsed, and attempts to build a democratic state under the pseudo-democrat Boris Yeltsin were undermined by the rise of a new oligarchy that seized Russia’s wealth for itself. To hold power, Putin now tries to act in the old imperial way — by conquest — but in the 21st century that no longer works.Strategically, Putin is already losing and is “erasing” his troops on the war fronts — evidenced by the fact that he had to ask North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong Un to send soldiers to the Kursk region. It is worth wondering what he would do if uprisings broke out simultaneously in the Caucasus, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, and the Sakha Republic (Yakutia). Would he then ask China’s leader Xi Jinping for troops?"The only path to peace is Ukraine’s victory. This is a geopolitical axiom that needs no proof, because Ukraine has made the greatest contribution to the future defeat of the Russian Federation. Receiving measured aid in weapons, finance, and sanctions from the West, Ukraine has absorbed the full force of the Russian invasion."At the same time, Ukraine has not only pushed Russia away from its capital Kyiv and other major cities, but has destroyed huge amounts of equipment and supplies from the Russian arsenal and the Black Sea Fleet. Russian army losses already exceed one million. We deeply value the help and contributions of our allies, but to reverse the situation and expel Russian occupation forces from all our internationally recognized territories, Ukrainians need a sharp increase in that assistance.We must learn from past mistakes. Although one of the best U.S. presidents, Ronald Reagan, won the Cold War, his successor George H. W. Bush and his conservative circle perhaps made the greatest foreign‑policy mistake in human history. The transition of Russia to a “capitalist” economy after the Cold War was terribly mismanaged because it was carried out on the basis of a very naive conservative belief in the virtues of capitalism that ignored Russia’s concrete circumstances.The conservatives were so intoxicated by their victory over the Soviet Union that they naively assumed capitalism and democracy would naturally flourish in post‑Soviet Russia. It was as if cannibals suddenly proclaimed publicly that they were completely changed, progressive, fully enlightened and had become convinced vegetarians — and the West somehow believed their fervent assurances.Instead, the transition to capitalism in post‑Soviet Russia tragically failed and produced an anti‑democratic oligarchic dictatorship whose cruelty far exceeds medieval feudalism. It is also less stable and more revanchist than even the former USSR, because the world’s largest nuclear arsenal is now controlled by a single person.It appears that the United States needs to seriously consider not how to appease Russia — because that is impossible — but how to develop a program for dealing with Moscow after the war in Ukraine. One cannot rule out the possibility that Russia’s elites together with the “good Russians” might again launch another round of “perestroika,” and that the American president, Donald Trump, or his successor, will declare that, for the sake of a new Russia, we must provide it with any aid it requests.We must finally understand that Russia, in its current territorial form, can never become a democratic state. On that basis, effective mechanisms must be developed to minimize threats to neighboring countries in the event of the Russian Federation’s collapse.The Russian dictator Putin does not look like a victor today, and everything must be done to ensure that soon he looks like the defeated. Unpunished evil always returns as an even greater evil. Therefore, every effort must be made to ensure the Russian threat is eliminated once and for all.SourceAbout the author. Viktor Kaspruk, journalist.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.
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Slovakia’s Fico opposes EU ban on Russian nuclear fuel
Slovakia’s Fico opposes EU ban on Russian nuclear fuel
The Slovak government leader’s statement was cited by Euractiv.Slovakia, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Finland, and Hungary generate electricity using Russian-designed nuclear reactors; most of them depend on Russia for fuel supply until alternative sources become fully available.Fico directly criticized the European Commission’s proposal to gradually phase out imports of Russian energy resources in response to the invasion of Ukraine and the 2022 energy crisis, a plan known as REPowerEU.In his speech, the Slovak prime minister noted that Slovakia signed a nuclear energy agreement with the United States in September.This agreement is tied to Bratislava’s plan to build a new 1,000-megawatt reactor at the Jaslovské Bohunice nuclear power plant.“I believe this is a step that will be important not only for Slovakia but for all of Europe, especially for Central Europe,” the Slovak prime minister said.Fico, who—like his Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orbán—has maintained close ties with the Kremlin throughout the war in Ukraine, has long been a critic of EU efforts to move away from Russian energy resources.In his speech, he called the REPowerEU plan a “miserable document” and “complete nonsense,” stating that Slovakia would “never agree” with the Commission’s proposal to ban all imports of Russian gas. Slovakia and Hungary are the only two EU countries that openly oppose efforts aimed at ending dependence on Russian energy resources.However, unlike economic sanctions, which require the unanimous consent of EU member state governments, Bratislava and Budapest cannot easily block REPowerEU.
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Ukraine in intelligence battle: increasing reliance on space
Ukraine in intelligence battle: increasing reliance on space
ContentsHow Russian-Chinese synergy in intelligence is ensured and supportedU.S. support for Ukraine: strong assistance, but everything depends on political circumstancesUkrainian capabilities: what exists and what is lackingRussian drone and missile strikes on key Ukrainian targets are predictably intensifying. Assumptions that Russia could produce around 6,000 drones per month, such as Shahed, Gerber, and other variants, are becoming a reality. Similarly, so far ineffective sanctions allow Russia to regularly replenish its missile arsenals. Under these conditions, rapidly updating intelligence on targets in Ukraine becomes critically important for Russia. Dozens of Russian agents detained by the SBU each month clearly play a key role in gathering intelligence. However, it is clear that human intelligence alone does not solve all problems; it must be supplemented by electronic and space-based data. What capabilities does Russia have today in this regard, and on whom can it rely in the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation? The answer is known: China.How Russian-Chinese synergy in intelligence is ensured and supportedAt the beginning of October, it was reported that during the massive drone and missile strikes on Lviv and other cities in western Ukraine, at least three Chinese military satellites were observed passing over the area. These satellites could have collected intelligence on targets in Ukraine’s western regions and transmitted it to Russia. The Chinese satellites made several passes over Lviv Oblast during the strikes on October 5. Although China has not commented on this information and Moscow is pretending nothing happened, it was clearly not a “coincidence.”How extensive is China’s support to Russia in intelligence, and what capabilities does Beijing currently have in this field?Over the past two decades, China has built a multi-layered system of reconnaissance satellites. The Yaogan series includes optical reconnaissance, synthetic aperture radar (SAR), and radio/electronic components. In 2023–2024, China added the Yaogan-41 satellite in geostationary orbit with a powerful optical system, as well as new batches of low-orbit satellites for high-frequency imaging. The commercial segment, primarily CGSTL with its Jilin-1 satellite group, actively conducts remote sensing of the Earth’s surface and is partially integrated with the state sector.The U.S. has already noted the transfer of satellite information from China to Russia, imposing sanctions in 2023 on Spacety Luxembourg SA, a subsidiary of the Chinese company Spacety. Spacety provided satellite imagery over Ukraine to the Russian company Terra Tech. According to U.S. sources, these images were subsequently used by Wagner PMC units in operations in Donbas. In April 2025, the U.S. accused the Chinese company Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co. Ltd (CGSTL) of providing intelligence data to the Houthis.Russia currently operates about 160 active satellites, of which up to 100 perform military functions, such as providing navigation via the GLONASS system and conducting satellite reconnaissance with the "Persona" series. However, the collaboration between Russia and China clearly produces a synergistic effect for the two countries of the "axis of evil" — they gain better military navigation, improved communications, and higher-quality, wider coverage of the Earth's surface for collecting intelligence, including for target designation to carry out strikes.U.S. support for Ukraine: strong assistance, but everything depends on political circumstancesSince 2022 Ukraine has been building its satellite-reconnaissance capabilities based on information from the U.S. and other NATO allies, albeit with regular political and technical caveats. The years 2022–2024 gave Ukraine unprecedented access to satellite data: direct purchases of commercial SAR (an ICEYE deal via the Serhiy Prytula Foundation that funded a “Ukrainian” satellite and access to the whole constellation), funding for commercial imagery in U.S. aid packages, and integration of intelligence into our combat-management systems. In March 2025 the U.S. abruptly “paused” intelligence sharing and access to commercial imagery channels (GEGD/Maxar), which negatively affected our ability to plan and execute deep strikes into Russian territory. Although the U.S. later resumed transfers, the episode exposed our vulnerability from dependence on Washington. At present our partners provide us with critically important satellite information, but its dependence on political moods and financial instruments makes it necessary to build Ukraine’s own backbone of space-based intelligence.Ukrainian capabilities: what exists and what is lackingUkraine has been able to integrate the flow of partner-provided information into combat cycles and use it effectively to strike enemy targets. However, without resilient, sovereign access to space-based intelligence, the Defence Forces of Ukraine cannot fully realise the potential of existing and future precision weapons, operational-tactical coordination, and strategic deterrence. In other words, Ukraine needs to build a comprehensive space infrastructure that would include national orbital launch systems, an on-orbit constellation, ground complexes, and an appropriate legal and regulatory framework. Such a system could provide command-and-control and communications, navigation, intelligence, target designation, and effectively the full-cycle support for force employment on the modern battlefield. Of course, a fully fledged infrastructure of this kind requires colossal resources, and prioritising investment in space infrastructure demands separate analysis and broad public discussion.In his recent article, General Zaluzhnyi states that space must quickly become another domain where Ukraine needs to achieve key technological advances. “It’s time to look to space, because the only way today to reach the required level of security is through technological superiority in all domains,” the general believes.Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, photo: gettyimagesIn his view, the decision to establish the Space Forces by December 31, 2025, as outlined in the government’s program, is belated but still relevant. Zaluzhnyi highlights several aspects that should be considered when shaping state policy in the field of space technologies.Specifically, the general speaks about granting the Armed Forces their own functions for strategic-level intelligence activity. Although one can argue with the general on this point, given that those functions are assigned to the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence (HUR) and, if necessary (for example, if the scope of space intelligence is to be expanded), they can be implemented by creating (or strengthening) the appropriate units within the unified structure of Ukraine’s military intelligence. This would also apply when using weapons systems that require intelligence support and strategic-level planning. At the same time, it is certainly possible to agree that creating a corresponding strategic-level management element in the field of space intelligence — including for operational information exchange and use — is clearly timely.Zaluzhnyi also speaks about the need to develop a space-support strategy that will allow Ukraine in the future to possess its own constellation of spacecraft and ground equipment — not only to build an observation system, but also navigation and meteorological support and its own satellite communications system.In General Zaluzhnyi’s view, treating space as a path to operational advantage means the Space Forces must be guaranteed the full spectrum of capabilities.“We need to provide for the creation of a single, rigid command structure for space activities with minimal influence from external actors. This means establishing regulatory mechanisms from the outset, which are impossible without reforming the legal framework, or else they will resemble the attempts to create Cyber Forces, which never fully integrated into the previously distributed domain,” asserts Valeriy Zaluzhnyi.In his view, creating a clear command structure for managing processes and using existing streams of partner-provided information should be the main focus for the new Space Forces. The transition to forming an indigenous constellation of spacecraft and other resource‑intensive components should proceed gradually, as resilient cooperation with international partners and an internal system for using current capabilities at both operational and strategic levels are secured.Overall, against the backdrop of the China-Russia space duo, which is already directly threatening Ukraine and NATO through the joint use of military satellites for targeting missile and drone strikes, the creation of Ukraine’s own Space Forces with the corresponding infrastructure appears not only logical but urgent. Developing an integrated system for acquiring and utilizing space-based intelligence for operational and strategic purposes will provide Ukraine with new capabilities and significantly greater resilience against Russian aggression. At the same time, the expected complexity and obvious resource demands of this process require maintaining and expanding cooperation with the U.S. and European partners in space intelligence. Moreover, the potential for joint projects with EU countries could become a new avenue of effort for Ukraine in this domain.This material was prepared in collaboration with the Defense Information Consortium (CDI), a project that unites Ukrainian analytical and research organizations and is aimed at strengthening information support and analytical capacity in the fields of national security, defense, and geopolitics.
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Beijing’s calculated backing increases Kremlin dependence
Beijing’s calculated backing increases Kremlin dependence
As former president of Ukraine Leonid Kravchuk used to say, “that’s true, but not entirely.” China always pursues its own interests, and its “support” for Russia primarily reflects Beijing’s own calculations.First, China imposes very “special” terms of cooperation on Russia.For example, Russia is forced to sell natural gas to China at significantly lower prices than to its few clients in Europe and Turkey."According to the forecast by Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development submitted with the draft budget, in 2025 the export price of gas to China will be around $249 per thousand cubic meters, while to Western markets it will be nearly $402. This is 38% less than for Turkey and some European countries."Over the next three years, the price gap is expected to remain at least 27%, confirming that reorienting toward the Chinese market is unprofitable. For the Kremlin, this means growing dependence on China and reduced profitability for Gazprom, as supplies to Europe before 2022 were the company’s main source of income.Even accounting for increased supplies via the Power of Siberia pipeline and new agreements with Beijing, Russia earns significantly less from gas exports than before the war.Second, sanctions are indeed working — in banking, among manufacturers, and even against the “shadow fleet.”China is implementing a system to regulate “shadow fleet” tankers at one of its largest oil terminals, Bloomberg reports.Starting November 1, new rules will take effect at the port of Qingdao, which accounts for one-sixth of China’s oil imports.From now on, oil tankers will be checked for age, environmental insurance coverage, and registration changes with the International Maritime Organization.Vessels receiving a low rating, specifically those older than 31 years or with invalid insurance certificates, will not be allowed into Qingdao port.Journalists note that these measures are specifically targeting the “shadow fleet” that Russia and Iran use to transport oil around Western sanctions.Thus, to deprive Russia of Chinese resources, cooperation with Russia must become increasingly unprofitable.And there’s more to come.SourceAbout the author. Rostyslav Pavlenko, Ukrainian politician, political analyst, political technologist, and lecturer. He served as a Member of Parliament of Ukraine in the IX convocation.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.
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Russia running deliberate shadow campaign against Europe — von der Leyen
Russia running deliberate shadow campaign against Europe — von der Leyen
Radio Liberty reports.“One incident could be a mistake. Two—a coincidence. But three, five, ten? This is a deliberate and targeted shadow campaign against Europe… Russia wants to sow discord. We respond with unity. It was Italian pilots, as part of NATO’s air policing mission, who escorted Russian aircraft out of Estonian airspace. Ukrainian experts are sharing frontline experience to help member states counter drone incursions,” von der Leyen said.The European Commission President called not only for a response, but also for deterrence of aggression.“Europe must urgently equip itself with strategic response capabilities… And we must be able to react in real time. This work has already begun,” von der Leyen noted.She highlighted “the largest surge in defense spending in the history of our Union.” Under the Readiness 2030 program, which foresees rearmament by the target deadline, Europe plans to mobilize up to 800 billion euros for defense. The European Commission will soon present the roadmap for this program.Von der Leyen again mentioned flagship projects proposed as the backbone of the program, including, in particular, a “drone wall.”“We need a system that is affordable and fit for use—for rapid detection, rapid interception and, if necessary, rapid neutralization. Here we have much to learn from Ukraine—both in terms of capabilities and, even more importantly, in terms of their ecosystem of rapid innovation. And Ukraine is ready to support our efforts,” the Commission President added.She also mentioned a project aimed at monitoring and protecting the air, sea, and land of NATO’s eastern flank, and noted that strengthening Europe’s defense industry is necessary to implement all planned initiatives.“Countering Russia’s hybrid warfare is not only about traditional defense. It’s about software for drones and spare parts for pipelines. It’s about rapid cyber response teams and public information campaigns to raise awareness. This requires new thinking from all of us… And most importantly, we must deter anyone who seeks to harm us,” von der Leyen concluded.
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Russia shifts war to Ukraine’s rear by targeting infrastructure
Russia shifts war to Ukraine’s rear by targeting infrastructure
This is not accidental, but the beginning of a new phase of the war, with the front gradually shifting to the rear.What is happening:Russians are systematically targeting critical infrastructure – substations, pumping stations, communications (in particular, Slavutych and Kramatorsk);In frontline cities, they are targeting civilians: hospitals, residential areas, and water supplies.In recent days, fiber-optic FPV drones, which are difficult to jam, have been spotted over Kramatorsk.“The goal is clear — to make frontline towns uninhabitable, force people out, and disrupt rear-area supply and support. This is already happening in Kherson, and the Russians aim to do the same to Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia.”What does this mean?We and the enemy are approaching the point where drone zones will cover the entire front.For us, this is a defensive goal: to close the sky and land to the enemy. For them, it is an attempt to destroy the rear.When the front becomes “closed,” the war will move to the rear fronts—energy, logistics, infrastructure, and the psychological stability of the population.How to respondStrengthen the rear and critical infrastructure – air defense, electronic warfare, dispersal of facilities. In particular, this raises huge questions for local communities. They are primarily interested in protecting their own communities.Take the war deeper into Russia – strike at the enemy's military machine and border regions: Rostov, Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Voronezh.Whoever is the first to drive each other out with drones will win the rear war.SourceAbout the author. Vasyl Pekhnio, journalist, presenter, analyst.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog or column authors.
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ISW: Russia's threats over Tomahawks aim to deter U.S. support for Ukraine
ISW: Russia's threats over Tomahawks aim to deter U.S. support for Ukraine
The Institute for the Study of War writes about the issue in its daily report. American analysts note that Russia continues its campaign to prevent the U.S. from supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. In particular, on October 7, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that U.S. delivery of Tomahawks to Ukraine would be a “serious escalation” that allegedly would not change the situation on the front line. He also mentioned that these missiles are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.Peskov also said that Vladimir Putin has “unequivocally” stated his position on how Russia would respond to such actions, referring to the Russian leader’s threats. On October 2, Putin warned the U.S. against supplying Tomahawks to Ukraine, claiming that American military personnel would allegedly be forced to participate directly in Ukrainian missile strikes. On October 5, he threatened that supplying Tomahawks would “lead to the destruction” of the “emerging positive trend” in U.S.-Russia relations."ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is attempting to portray potential U.S. Tomahawk deliveries to Ukraine as a dangerous escalation to deter the United States from sending such weapons to Ukraine," the outlet stated.The institute emphasized that the Kremlin previously conducted similar influence operations when the U.S. discussed supplying Ukraine with ATACMS tactical missile systems, HIMARS rocket artillery systems, F-16 fighters, and Abrams tanks, successfully delaying the delivery of Western weapons to Ukraine.Analysts noted that previous strikes using U.S.-supplied long-range weapon systems did not trigger escalation from Russia, and that the West and Ukraine have repeatedly crossed Moscow’s so-called “red lines” in the past without provoking escalation."These recent Russian threats about Tomahawk missile provisions are part of Russia’s wider reflexive control campaign that aims to coerce Russia’s opponents to make policy decisions that actually benefit Russia," ISW concluded.On September 29, U.S. presidential envoy to Ukraine, General Keith Kellogg, reported that American President Donald Trump authorized strikes on Russian territory using long-range weapons.Later, Kellogg clarified that no final decision has been made regarding the possible provision of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, emphasizing that the matter is under consideration by President Donald Trump.On September 5, Vladimir Putin threatened that supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would destroy relations between Moscow and Washington.On Monday, October 6, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he has "sort of made a decision" regarding the supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Putin's press secretary Peskov called this a "serious round of escalation."     
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