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Reposted by Eugenio Proto

Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · 23d

Thrilled to share that our article

“Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events” is forthcoming in the Journal of the European Economic Association (JEEA).

(with C. K. Becker, T. Melkonyan, @andissofianos.bsky.social Sofianos, S.T. Trautmann)

(1/5)

👉 academic.oup.com/jeea/advance...

Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events

Abstract. Bayesian updating is the dominant theory of learning. However, the theory is silent about how individuals react to events that were previously un

academic.oup.com

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Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · 23d

Why it matters?
These insights speak to how humans adapt when the unexpected becomes reality.

And they matter for macroeconomists studying economies after large, unanticipated shocks. (5/5)

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Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · 23d

The main takeaway: people are surprisingly good — on average — at adapting to new realities, combining pre- and post-shock information wisely. (4/5)

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Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · 23d

We test reverse Bayesianism — a framework where unforeseen events leave relative prior likelihoods unchanged.

Our experiments show:
🔹 If the new world resembles the old, people update gradually.
🔹 If a regime change is possible, they overhaul their entire model.
(3/5)

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Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · 23d

The paper asks: how do people update their beliefs when faced with events they never anticipated?
Bayesian learning dominates economics — but it says nothing about “unknown unknowns.” (2/5)

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Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · 23d

Thrilled to share that our article

“Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events” is forthcoming in the Journal of the European Economic Association (JEEA).

(with C. K. Becker, T. Melkonyan, @andissofianos.bsky.social Sofianos, S.T. Trautmann)

(1/5)

👉 academic.oup.com/jeea/advance...

Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events

Abstract. Bayesian updating is the dominant theory of learning. However, the theory is silent about how individuals react to events that were previously un

academic.oup.com

1 3 6

Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · Aug 21

Donald Trump is becoming the greatest unifier of Europe since the end of the cold war www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Donald Trump is becoming the greatest unifier of Europe since the end of the cold war | Fabrizio Tassinari

The US president may be helping Putin to destroy the west, but his vanity is causing Europeans to speak with one voice in defence of Ukraine, says Fabrizio Tassinari of the European University Institu...

www.theguardian.com

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Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · Aug 1

And just when you think you’ve hit rock bottom, it goes deeper.

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · Aug 1

Firing the BLS Commissioner because you don't like the data is a dark day.

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Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · Jul 29

Thank you for the invitation to this wonderful workshop. It was a real pleasure participating.

(Yes, that stunning background is real!)

Mirco Tonin @mircotonin.bsky.social · Jul 29

Group picture at the workshop "The Demand for Bad Policy - Why do citizens support policies that harm society?" organised by Paolo Roberti at @unibz.bsky.social LINK: www.unibz.it/en/events/th... @eugenioproto.bsky.social @federicoboffa.bsky.social @mbigoni.bsky.social @ollefolke.bsky.social

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Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · Jul 29

Yes, broadly speaking

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Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · Jul 19

The Demand for Bad Policy workshop in Bolzano .

www.unibz.it/en/events/th... The Demand for Bad Policy / Free University of Bozen-Bolzano

28 Jul 2025 09:30 - 29 Jul 2025 19:30 / The Demand for Bad Policy

Why do citizens support policies that harm society? Join The Demand for Bad Policy, a two-day workshop with top scholars in political economy and behavioral science.

www.unibz.it

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Reposted by Eugenio Proto

Glen O'Hara @gsoh31.bsky.social · Jul 11

Asylum-seekers get £49 a week loaded onto a pre-paid card if they're not in catered accommodation. They get £10 if they are. And yet nearly a third of voters think government spending helps 'immigrants' **most of all**. Insane and frightening.

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Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · Jul 8

An old article, but still very timely

www.psychreg.org/emotions-ele...

Emotions Are Key to Deciding Elections, Not Economics or Party Platforms – According to Research

Elections and referendums may be being decided by the emotional well-being of voters, new research from the University of Warwick suggests.

www.psychreg.org

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Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · Jul 7

Comunque è buono per tutti i nipoti del mondo

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Reposted by Eugenio Proto

Caitlin Heard @caitlinheard.bsky.social · Jul 7

Investing in behavioral science is key to building smarter, more compassionate policy. Grateful to see programs like this shaping the next generation of changemakers, this is what exactly the world need.

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Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · Jul 7

📢Applications are now open for the 2024/25 academic year for the MSc in Behavioural Science.

This unique programme is co-run by the Adam Smith Business School and the School of Psychology & Neuroscience.

📢Several full scholarships are available :

www.gla.ac.uk/postgraduate...

University of Glasgow - Postgraduate study - Taught degree programmes A‑Z - Behavioural Science

The Masters in Behavioural Science is a unique programme co-run by the Adam Smith Business School and the School of Psychology & Neuroscience. It aims to shape tomorrow’s behavioural scientists throug...

www.gla.ac.uk

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Reposted by Eugenio Proto

Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · Mar 31

Unhappiness & distrust fuel populism.

Chapter 7 of the 2025 World Happiness Report shows low life satisfaction predicts support for populists—from Trump to Brexit.

Less trust, more anger = votes for “strongmen.”

🔗 worldhappiness.report/ed/2025/trus...

#Populism #Trust

Trusting others: How unhappiness and social distrust explain populism

The World Happiness Report is published by the Wellbeing Research Centre at the University of Oxford, in partnership with Gallup, the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network and an independent ed...

worldhappiness.report

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Reposted by Eugenio Proto

Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · Jul 2

Our experiments are only as strong as their ability to be replicated

Pleased to see our 2022 study on intelligence & strategy in repeated games validated by a high-powered experiment.

Thanks to Michalis & Graeme.

Andis Sofianos @andissofianos.bsky.social · Jun 17

Very happy to see our paper with @eugenioproto.bsky.social and Aldo replicated by Michalis (@mdrouvelis.bsky.social) & Graeme!

#EconSky

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Intelligence and strategy choice in indefinitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma games: A replication of Proto, Rustichini & Sofianos (2022)

We provide a close replication of the original study of Proto et al. (2022) which examines the link between intelligence, strategy choice and errors i…

www.sciencedirect.com

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Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · Jul 7

I would be happy to be there as well, thanks

Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · Jul 6

In the English translated version

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Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · Jul 6

This is definitely a good book to read for a 14yo, interested in behavioural economics !

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Reposted by Eugenio Proto

Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · Sep 1

Here is a behavioral economics starter pack to easily find researchers in that area on BSky.
(let me know if I should add you)
go.bsky.app/Ku4zvbT

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Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · Jul 2

Our experiments are only as strong as their ability to be replicated

Pleased to see our 2022 study on intelligence & strategy in repeated games validated by a high-powered experiment.

Thanks to Michalis & Graeme.

Andis Sofianos @andissofianos.bsky.social · Jun 17

Very happy to see our paper with @eugenioproto.bsky.social and Aldo replicated by Michalis (@mdrouvelis.bsky.social) & Graeme!

#EconSky

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Intelligence and strategy choice in indefinitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma games: A replication of Proto, Rustichini & Sofianos (2022)

We provide a close replication of the original study of Proto et al. (2022) which examines the link between intelligence, strategy choice and errors i…

www.sciencedirect.com

2 7

Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · Jul 2

Enjoying the Finnish Summer

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Eugenio Proto @eugenioproto.bsky.social · Jul 2

Starmer made strategic and communication’s mistakes, yes. But left wing media should be more constructive , it is not easy to re-invent a left wing party in periods like these

The Guardian @theguardian.com · Jul 2

Poorly led, strategically inept and shorn of democracy. Now I truly fear for this Labour government | John McDonnell

The welfare bill passed, but it was chaos. A party this dysfunctional and divided cannot escape the wrath of voters at the next election, says John McDonnell, former Labour shadow chancellor

www.theguardian.com