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Evan Miyakawa

@evanmiya.bsky.social

5.6K followers 140 following 440 posts

College basketball analytics at EvanMiya.com. PhD Statistician / Data Scientist. Featured in ESPN, CBS Sports, The Athletic, Wall Street Journal. Hebrews 11:6.

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Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 17

The EvanMiya.com bracket primer is here!

In this bracket deep-dive, I cover:
- Who are the true title favorites?
- Which teams have the most value?
- Who are the cinderellas?
- What can the "Kill Shot" tell us?

And much more 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/the-evanmi...

The EvanMiya.com Bracket Primer

Everything from the data that you need to know for your bracket

blog.evanmiya.com

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 20h

Here are the top 30 players in CBB in the preseason ratings at EvanMiya.com!

These projections take into account statistical output, impact on team performance, performance in previous seasons, and high school recruiting profile.

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 9d

Here is the preseason top 25 at EvanMiya.com!

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · 27d

CBB preseason projections are live at EvanMiya.com!

You'll find:
🏀 Team and player projections
💪 MVP and Most Indispensable player rankings
📈 Roster strength rankings, player skill grades, and much more

Here are the top 10 teams and players ⬇️

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Jun 10

A new "Roster Outlook" tool is up at EvanMiya.com!

You can input any set of players to see how that roster would typically rank in the preseason.

Here are the outlooks for one team from each of the major conferences ⤵️ blog.evanmiya.com/p/five-team-...

Five Team Roster Outlooks for 2025-26

A peak behind the curtain at a brand new tool at EvanMiya.com

blog.evanmiya.com

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · May 8

Mid-majors are struggling more than ever to find sustainable success year-over-year. In the modern NIL era, how can these programs keep up?

I conducted a study to find the best roster construction strategies for mid-majors. Here are the results ⤵️

blog.evanmiya.com/p/mid-major-...

Mid-Major Roster Construction Strategies

How teams with limited resources can find success in the modern portal era

blog.evanmiya.com

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 19

Kentucky has been great against the best teams and the worst teams on their schedule. It's the teams in the middle they have struggled with.

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 19

My official bracket is done.

Here's my analysis of all my picks:

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 19

New Mexico has some real potential to make a deep run in this tournament.

Outside of Florida, no team is better at playing up to elite competition. New Mexico puts their best on display in big games, so they've got a shot to make some real noise as an underdog.

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 19

Here are the tournament teams that play up to competition the most, according to the Opponent Strength Adjustment at EvanMiya.com. They play their best ball against top opposition:

1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 19

Houston having to potentially play Gonzaga in the 2nd round is so unfair.

Houston's chances of making a Final Four are 43%. If the 8 seed in their region was Mississippi State, not Gonzaga, their probability of making a Final Four would be up at 52%.

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 19

I'm torn on St. John's for this reason:

They play much better against their toughest opponents ✅

But they haven't played any team inside the top 20 at EvanMiya.com this year ❌

Florida, Texas Tech, Maryland, and even Kansas are ranked higher than any team in the Big East.

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 19

I love UC San Diego's ability to move the ball.

The Tritons have four players in the 93rd percentile or better in Playmaking Score at EvanMiya.com, which accounts for assists and turnovers.

The only other team with as many as 4 is Wisconsin.

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 19

And here are the teams who struggle the most against the best teams on their schedule:

1. Illinois
2. Texas
3. Utah State
4. Baylor
5. Vanderbilt

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 19

Here are the tournament teams that play up to competition the most, according to the Opponent Strength Adjustment at EvanMiya.com. They play their best ball against top opposition:

1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 19

Several weeks ago I was ready to go all in on Texas Tech in the tournament. They were a top 6 team at EvanMiya.com at the time, and have incredible shooters and a dominant big man in JT Toppin.

They aren't in quite as favorable a spot now, but I'm still rolling with them in my Final Four.

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 19

I really like Maryland's path to a Sweet 16, if not further.

If they beat GCU, they would face either Memphis or Colorado State, both of which they would be favored to beat by 6 points according to EvanMiya.com.

They are the strongest 4-seed in the tourney and could give Florida a test.

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 18

Might have to use that next time

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 18

That's the beauty of it

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 18

You can see the full injury reports and how much of an adjustment is made for each matchup on the Matchup Preview page at EvanMiya.com.

Here is Iowa State's matchup against Lipscomb:

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 18

Here are the tourney teams with the biggest injury adjustment at EvanMiya.com due to players who are either questionable or unable to play in the first round:

1. Iowa State
2. Duke
3. Texas Tech
4. Kentucky
5. Arkansas

EvanMiya CBB Analytics

Advanced college basketball analytics used widely by coaches, journalists, and fans.

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 18

You can read my full analysis of the Kill Shot in the article below, where I also outline the national title blueprint for teams in previous tournaments based on these metrics. blog.evanmiya.com/p/the-evanmi...

The EvanMiya.com Bracket Primer

Everything from the data that you need to know for your bracket

blog.evanmiya.com

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 18

Finally we have the "Suspect" teams according to the Kill Shot.

They give up a ton of 10-0 runs and aren't super capable of firing back.

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 18

Here are the "Least Streaky" teams according to the Kill Shot.

These teams struggle to go on scoring runs, but they also rarely give them up. Leads are more safe in these games.

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 18

Here are the "Streaky" teams according to the Kill Shot.

These teams go on lots of 10-0 runs, but they give them up frequently as well. Games with these teams are often pretty back and forth, and no lead is safe.

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 18

Here are the Strong Teams in the tournament according to the Kill Shot.

Yale rates as the best team in the country at going on 10-0 runs after adjusting for competition, while Duke has the best overall Kill Shot Margin.

Evan Miyakawa @evanmiya.bsky.social · Mar 18

The "Kill Shot": Tracking 10-0 scoring runs for tournament teams!

The graph shows how many 10-0 runs a team has per game and how many runs they concede, adjusted for competition 👇