Evan Miyakawa
@evanmiya.bsky.social
College basketball analytics at EvanMiya.com. PhD Statistician / Data Scientist. Featured in ESPN, CBS Sports, The Athletic, Wall Street Journal. Hebrews 11:6.
Duke currently has two of the top three most valuable players in the country, per BPR at EvanMiya.com.
Cameron Boozer leads the nation, in part because of his ridiculous stat-line. And Patrick Ngongba has been a dependable secondary star, averaging 13/7 on 70% FG.
Cameron Boozer leads the nation, in part because of his ridiculous stat-line. And Patrick Ngongba has been a dependable secondary star, averaging 13/7 on 70% FG.
November 24, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Duke currently has two of the top three most valuable players in the country, per BPR at EvanMiya.com.
Cameron Boozer leads the nation, in part because of his ridiculous stat-line. And Patrick Ngongba has been a dependable secondary star, averaging 13/7 on 70% FG.
Cameron Boozer leads the nation, in part because of his ridiculous stat-line. And Patrick Ngongba has been a dependable secondary star, averaging 13/7 on 70% FG.
Purdue with an impressive first half "Avalanche" (20-0 run) against #15 Texas Tech!
There have only been 12 total 20-0 runs in college basketball this season.
There have only been 12 total 20-0 runs in college basketball this season.
November 22, 2025 at 3:38 AM
Purdue with an impressive first half "Avalanche" (20-0 run) against #15 Texas Tech!
There have only been 12 total 20-0 runs in college basketball this season.
There have only been 12 total 20-0 runs in college basketball this season.
Here are the best wins any team has had this year according to Resume Quality at EvanMiya.com, in order:
Arizona @ UConn
Alabama vs Illinois
Arizona vs Florida
Purdue @ Alabama
Michigan St. vs Kentucky
Alabama @ St. John's
UConn vs BYU
Arizona owns 2 of the top 3.
Arizona @ UConn
Alabama vs Illinois
Arizona vs Florida
Purdue @ Alabama
Michigan St. vs Kentucky
Alabama @ St. John's
UConn vs BYU
Arizona owns 2 of the top 3.
November 20, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Here are the best wins any team has had this year according to Resume Quality at EvanMiya.com, in order:
Arizona @ UConn
Alabama vs Illinois
Arizona vs Florida
Purdue @ Alabama
Michigan St. vs Kentucky
Alabama @ St. John's
UConn vs BYU
Arizona owns 2 of the top 3.
Arizona @ UConn
Alabama vs Illinois
Arizona vs Florida
Purdue @ Alabama
Michigan St. vs Kentucky
Alabama @ St. John's
UConn vs BYU
Arizona owns 2 of the top 3.
It's been 332 days since Michigan State had 6 different players hit a three-pointer in a game (Dec 21, 2024 vs FAU)
Tonight against Kentucky, the Spartans have 6 players who have connected from deep, all in the first 14 minutes of the game.
Tonight against Kentucky, the Spartans have 6 players who have connected from deep, all in the first 14 minutes of the game.
November 19, 2025 at 12:30 AM
It's been 332 days since Michigan State had 6 different players hit a three-pointer in a game (Dec 21, 2024 vs FAU)
Tonight against Kentucky, the Spartans have 6 players who have connected from deep, all in the first 14 minutes of the game.
Tonight against Kentucky, the Spartans have 6 players who have connected from deep, all in the first 14 minutes of the game.
Here are the players with the best statistical output in college basketball two weeks into the season, according to Box BPR at EvanMiya.com, adjusted for opponent strength.
Cameron Boozer is head and shoulders above everyone else.
Cameron Boozer is head and shoulders above everyone else.
November 17, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Here are the players with the best statistical output in college basketball two weeks into the season, according to Box BPR at EvanMiya.com, adjusted for opponent strength.
Cameron Boozer is head and shoulders above everyone else.
Cameron Boozer is head and shoulders above everyone else.
Notable team movement from the preseason at EvanMiya.com:
🔼Indiana 42nd to 20th
🔼Georgia 40 to 23
🔼Saint Mary's 43 to 24
🔼Syracuse 66 to 39
🔽UCLA 10 to 26
🔽Michigan State 22 to 33
🔽Oregon 23 to 40
🔽Miss State 28 to 48
🔽Creighton 31 to 50
🔽Texas A&M 45 to 73
🔼Indiana 42nd to 20th
🔼Georgia 40 to 23
🔼Saint Mary's 43 to 24
🔼Syracuse 66 to 39
🔽UCLA 10 to 26
🔽Michigan State 22 to 33
🔽Oregon 23 to 40
🔽Miss State 28 to 48
🔽Creighton 31 to 50
🔽Texas A&M 45 to 73
November 16, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Notable team movement from the preseason at EvanMiya.com:
🔼Indiana 42nd to 20th
🔼Georgia 40 to 23
🔼Saint Mary's 43 to 24
🔼Syracuse 66 to 39
🔽UCLA 10 to 26
🔽Michigan State 22 to 33
🔽Oregon 23 to 40
🔽Miss State 28 to 48
🔽Creighton 31 to 50
🔽Texas A&M 45 to 73
🔼Indiana 42nd to 20th
🔼Georgia 40 to 23
🔼Saint Mary's 43 to 24
🔼Syracuse 66 to 39
🔽UCLA 10 to 26
🔽Michigan State 22 to 33
🔽Oregon 23 to 40
🔽Miss State 28 to 48
🔽Creighton 31 to 50
🔽Texas A&M 45 to 73
UConn takes on BYU tonight in a top 12 battle according to EvanMiya.com.
UConn has dominated an easy schedule, but BYU will be their first real test of the season. The trio of Saunders, Dybantsa, and Wright is a handful.
Predicted score: UConn 77, BYU 74.
UConn has dominated an easy schedule, but BYU will be their first real test of the season. The trio of Saunders, Dybantsa, and Wright is a handful.
Predicted score: UConn 77, BYU 74.
November 15, 2025 at 5:24 PM
UConn takes on BYU tonight in a top 12 battle according to EvanMiya.com.
UConn has dominated an easy schedule, but BYU will be their first real test of the season. The trio of Saunders, Dybantsa, and Wright is a handful.
Predicted score: UConn 77, BYU 74.
UConn has dominated an easy schedule, but BYU will be their first real test of the season. The trio of Saunders, Dybantsa, and Wright is a handful.
Predicted score: UConn 77, BYU 74.
Tonight's blockbuster matchup between Purdue and Alabama is genuinely one of the most enticing non-con matchups we could possibly have.
The stakes feel so high. Will Purdue finally show their title credentials? Is this Alabama team Final Four good?
Predicted score Bama 84-82.
The stakes feel so high. Will Purdue finally show their title credentials? Is this Alabama team Final Four good?
Predicted score Bama 84-82.
November 13, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Tonight's blockbuster matchup between Purdue and Alabama is genuinely one of the most enticing non-con matchups we could possibly have.
The stakes feel so high. Will Purdue finally show their title credentials? Is this Alabama team Final Four good?
Predicted score Bama 84-82.
The stakes feel so high. Will Purdue finally show their title credentials? Is this Alabama team Final Four good?
Predicted score Bama 84-82.
I have lineup projections up at EvanMiya.com for almost every possible lineup we could see in college basketball this year.
Here are the best predicted lineups in every statistical category: blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-lineu...
Here are the best predicted lineups in every statistical category: blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-lineu...
2025 Lineup Projections and Rankings
Handing out lineup awards before the season begins, what can go wrong?
blog.evanmiya.com
October 29, 2025 at 4:54 PM
I have lineup projections up at EvanMiya.com for almost every possible lineup we could see in college basketball this year.
Here are the best predicted lineups in every statistical category: blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-lineu...
Here are the best predicted lineups in every statistical category: blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-lineu...
I simulated the season 10,000 times to determine the best-case and worst-case outcomes for all 365 CBB teams, using the preseason uncertainty estimates specific to each team.
You can find the results for every single conference here 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-prese...
You can find the results for every single conference here 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-prese...
2025 Preseason Ceiling and Floor Team Outcomes
Using preseason simulations to get best and worst case scenarios for every team
blog.evanmiya.com
October 23, 2025 at 4:27 PM
I simulated the season 10,000 times to determine the best-case and worst-case outcomes for all 365 CBB teams, using the preseason uncertainty estimates specific to each team.
You can find the results for every single conference here 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-prese...
You can find the results for every single conference here 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-prese...
The top 30 individual seasons in college basketball since 2010, using Bayesian Performance Rating at EvanMiya.com. BPR quantifies per-possession value added through box stats and team impact metrics ⤵️
October 21, 2025 at 6:16 PM
The top 30 individual seasons in college basketball since 2010, using Bayesian Performance Rating at EvanMiya.com. BPR quantifies per-possession value added through box stats and team impact metrics ⤵️
After some big offseason upgrades to the Bayesian Performance Rating model, I've put together an article I've been meaning to do for a long time.
A full breakdown of the BPR model, and why I believe it's the best player metric in college basketball 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/bayesian-p...
A full breakdown of the BPR model, and why I believe it's the best player metric in college basketball 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/bayesian-p...
Bayesian Performance Rating: The Best Player Metric in CBB
New updates and a full model technical explainer
blog.evanmiya.com
October 20, 2025 at 6:03 PM
After some big offseason upgrades to the Bayesian Performance Rating model, I've put together an article I've been meaning to do for a long time.
A full breakdown of the BPR model, and why I believe it's the best player metric in college basketball 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/bayesian-p...
A full breakdown of the BPR model, and why I believe it's the best player metric in college basketball 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/bayesian-p...
The disparity between the high majors and the rest of college basketball has never felt bigger. The conference strength drop from the Big East to the A-10 is larger than the gap between 6th and 17th.
Here's the full conference rankings list from EvanMiya.com ⬇️
Here's the full conference rankings list from EvanMiya.com ⬇️
October 14, 2025 at 5:21 PM
The disparity between the high majors and the rest of college basketball has never felt bigger. The conference strength drop from the Big East to the A-10 is larger than the gap between 6th and 17th.
Here's the full conference rankings list from EvanMiya.com ⬇️
Here's the full conference rankings list from EvanMiya.com ⬇️
Interesting to compare the preseason top 50 at EvanMiya.com to @kenpom.com, which just released this morning.
Some teams I'm higher on:
Arizona
BYU
Oregon
NC State
Miami
Oklahoma
Teams I'm lower on:
Kentucky
Texas Tech
Baylor
Wisconsin
USC
Some teams I'm higher on:
Arizona
BYU
Oregon
NC State
Miami
Oklahoma
Teams I'm lower on:
Kentucky
Texas Tech
Baylor
Wisconsin
USC
October 12, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Interesting to compare the preseason top 50 at EvanMiya.com to @kenpom.com, which just released this morning.
Some teams I'm higher on:
Arizona
BYU
Oregon
NC State
Miami
Oklahoma
Teams I'm lower on:
Kentucky
Texas Tech
Baylor
Wisconsin
USC
Some teams I'm higher on:
Arizona
BYU
Oregon
NC State
Miami
Oklahoma
Teams I'm lower on:
Kentucky
Texas Tech
Baylor
Wisconsin
USC
Here are the top 30 players in CBB in the preseason ratings at EvanMiya.com!
These projections take into account statistical output, impact on team performance, performance in previous seasons, and high school recruiting profile.
These projections take into account statistical output, impact on team performance, performance in previous seasons, and high school recruiting profile.
October 8, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Here are the top 30 players in CBB in the preseason ratings at EvanMiya.com!
These projections take into account statistical output, impact on team performance, performance in previous seasons, and high school recruiting profile.
These projections take into account statistical output, impact on team performance, performance in previous seasons, and high school recruiting profile.
Here is the preseason top 25 at EvanMiya.com!
September 29, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Here is the preseason top 25 at EvanMiya.com!
CBB preseason projections are live at EvanMiya.com!
You'll find:
🏀 Team and player projections
💪 MVP and Most Indispensable player rankings
📈 Roster strength rankings, player skill grades, and much more
Here are the top 10 teams and players ⬇️
You'll find:
🏀 Team and player projections
💪 MVP and Most Indispensable player rankings
📈 Roster strength rankings, player skill grades, and much more
Here are the top 10 teams and players ⬇️
September 11, 2025 at 9:05 PM
CBB preseason projections are live at EvanMiya.com!
You'll find:
🏀 Team and player projections
💪 MVP and Most Indispensable player rankings
📈 Roster strength rankings, player skill grades, and much more
Here are the top 10 teams and players ⬇️
You'll find:
🏀 Team and player projections
💪 MVP and Most Indispensable player rankings
📈 Roster strength rankings, player skill grades, and much more
Here are the top 10 teams and players ⬇️
A new "Roster Outlook" tool is up at EvanMiya.com!
You can input any set of players to see how that roster would typically rank in the preseason.
Here are the outlooks for one team from each of the major conferences ⤵️ blog.evanmiya.com/p/five-team-...
You can input any set of players to see how that roster would typically rank in the preseason.
Here are the outlooks for one team from each of the major conferences ⤵️ blog.evanmiya.com/p/five-team-...
Five Team Roster Outlooks for 2025-26
A peak behind the curtain at a brand new tool at EvanMiya.com
blog.evanmiya.com
June 10, 2025 at 7:42 PM
A new "Roster Outlook" tool is up at EvanMiya.com!
You can input any set of players to see how that roster would typically rank in the preseason.
Here are the outlooks for one team from each of the major conferences ⤵️ blog.evanmiya.com/p/five-team-...
You can input any set of players to see how that roster would typically rank in the preseason.
Here are the outlooks for one team from each of the major conferences ⤵️ blog.evanmiya.com/p/five-team-...
Mid-majors are struggling more than ever to find sustainable success year-over-year. In the modern NIL era, how can these programs keep up?
I conducted a study to find the best roster construction strategies for mid-majors. Here are the results ⤵️
blog.evanmiya.com/p/mid-major-...
I conducted a study to find the best roster construction strategies for mid-majors. Here are the results ⤵️
blog.evanmiya.com/p/mid-major-...
Mid-Major Roster Construction Strategies
How teams with limited resources can find success in the modern portal era
blog.evanmiya.com
May 8, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Mid-majors are struggling more than ever to find sustainable success year-over-year. In the modern NIL era, how can these programs keep up?
I conducted a study to find the best roster construction strategies for mid-majors. Here are the results ⤵️
blog.evanmiya.com/p/mid-major-...
I conducted a study to find the best roster construction strategies for mid-majors. Here are the results ⤵️
blog.evanmiya.com/p/mid-major-...
My official bracket is done.
Here's my analysis of all my picks:
Here's my analysis of all my picks:
March 19, 2025 at 11:00 PM
My official bracket is done.
Here's my analysis of all my picks:
Here's my analysis of all my picks:
New Mexico has some real potential to make a deep run in this tournament.
Outside of Florida, no team is better at playing up to elite competition. New Mexico puts their best on display in big games, so they've got a shot to make some real noise as an underdog.
Outside of Florida, no team is better at playing up to elite competition. New Mexico puts their best on display in big games, so they've got a shot to make some real noise as an underdog.
Here are the tournament teams that play up to competition the most, according to the Opponent Strength Adjustment at EvanMiya.com. They play their best ball against top opposition:
1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon
1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon
March 19, 2025 at 10:42 PM
New Mexico has some real potential to make a deep run in this tournament.
Outside of Florida, no team is better at playing up to elite competition. New Mexico puts their best on display in big games, so they've got a shot to make some real noise as an underdog.
Outside of Florida, no team is better at playing up to elite competition. New Mexico puts their best on display in big games, so they've got a shot to make some real noise as an underdog.
Houston having to potentially play Gonzaga in the 2nd round is so unfair.
Houston's chances of making a Final Four are 43%. If the 8 seed in their region was Mississippi State, not Gonzaga, their probability of making a Final Four would be up at 52%.
Houston's chances of making a Final Four are 43%. If the 8 seed in their region was Mississippi State, not Gonzaga, their probability of making a Final Four would be up at 52%.
March 19, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Houston having to potentially play Gonzaga in the 2nd round is so unfair.
Houston's chances of making a Final Four are 43%. If the 8 seed in their region was Mississippi State, not Gonzaga, their probability of making a Final Four would be up at 52%.
Houston's chances of making a Final Four are 43%. If the 8 seed in their region was Mississippi State, not Gonzaga, their probability of making a Final Four would be up at 52%.
I'm torn on St. John's for this reason:
They play much better against their toughest opponents ✅
But they haven't played any team inside the top 20 at EvanMiya.com this year ❌
Florida, Texas Tech, Maryland, and even Kansas are ranked higher than any team in the Big East.
They play much better against their toughest opponents ✅
But they haven't played any team inside the top 20 at EvanMiya.com this year ❌
Florida, Texas Tech, Maryland, and even Kansas are ranked higher than any team in the Big East.
March 19, 2025 at 9:37 PM
I'm torn on St. John's for this reason:
They play much better against their toughest opponents ✅
But they haven't played any team inside the top 20 at EvanMiya.com this year ❌
Florida, Texas Tech, Maryland, and even Kansas are ranked higher than any team in the Big East.
They play much better against their toughest opponents ✅
But they haven't played any team inside the top 20 at EvanMiya.com this year ❌
Florida, Texas Tech, Maryland, and even Kansas are ranked higher than any team in the Big East.
I love UC San Diego's ability to move the ball.
The Tritons have four players in the 93rd percentile or better in Playmaking Score at EvanMiya.com, which accounts for assists and turnovers.
The only other team with as many as 4 is Wisconsin.
The Tritons have four players in the 93rd percentile or better in Playmaking Score at EvanMiya.com, which accounts for assists and turnovers.
The only other team with as many as 4 is Wisconsin.
March 19, 2025 at 9:15 PM
I love UC San Diego's ability to move the ball.
The Tritons have four players in the 93rd percentile or better in Playmaking Score at EvanMiya.com, which accounts for assists and turnovers.
The only other team with as many as 4 is Wisconsin.
The Tritons have four players in the 93rd percentile or better in Playmaking Score at EvanMiya.com, which accounts for assists and turnovers.
The only other team with as many as 4 is Wisconsin.
Here are the tournament teams that play up to competition the most, according to the Opponent Strength Adjustment at EvanMiya.com. They play their best ball against top opposition:
1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon
1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon
March 19, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Here are the tournament teams that play up to competition the most, according to the Opponent Strength Adjustment at EvanMiya.com. They play their best ball against top opposition:
1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon
1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon