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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · 7h

We're so back

EH Standard Team Tables Page after 2025-10-07 games

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · 1d

It's that time of year - the 25-26 NHL season is here!

EH Game Projections, 2025-10-07:

CHI at FLA: 41.7% - 58.3%
PIT at NYR: 42.5% - 57.5%
COL at L.A: 52.9% - 47.1%

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · 1d

The '25-26 NHL season begins today, which means our team projections are out! We released our initial preseason projections on Sunday (article on the site!), and we spent the entire episode discussing the projections and our thoughts on each division.

www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

Episode 157: '25-26 NHL Team Previews - Evolving Hockey Podcast

The '25-26 NHL season begins today, which means our team projections are out! We released our initial preseason projections on Sunday (there's an article on the site for those interested), and we spen...

www.buzzsprout.com

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · 3d

## '25-26 NHL Team Projections ##

They're up. They're live. Have fun but be safe.

evolving-hockey.com/blog/2025-20...

Screenshot of the Evolving Hockey team point projections table. I'm going to attempt to copy all of the information below:

Metropolitan
Rank Team Points Playoff% 1 SD±

1 Hurricanes 107.2 98.0 8.1
2 Capitals 94.0 67.1 8.4
3 Devils 93.5 66.2 8.4
4 Rangers 89.6 47.1 8.4
5 Blue Jackets 85.8 30.2 8.4
6 Islanders 84.6 24.9 8.4
7 Penguins 81.3 13.8 8.4
8 Flyers 78.7 8.6 8.4
Central
Rank Team Points Playoff% 1 SD±

1 Avalanche 111.2 99.4 8.0
2 Stars 102.3 93.8 8.3
3 Mammoth 94.2 71.5 8.3
4 Jets 91.4 58.3 8.4
5 Blues 87.7 41.4 8.4
6 Wild 87.0 38.6 8.4
7 Predators 78.6 9.7 8.4
8 Blackhawks 73.1 3.0 8.3
Atlantic
Rank Team Points Playoff% 1 SD±

1 Lightning 105.1 95.6 8.2
2 Sabres 98.8 84.5 8.3
3 Senators 96.4 75.4 8.4
4 Panthers 93.6 64.7 8.3
5 Maple Leafs 91.3 51.8 8.4
6 Canadiens 88.1 38.1 8.4
7 Red Wings 82.8 17.7 8.4
8 Bruins 82.1 16.3 8.4
Pacific
Rank Team Points Playoff% 1 SD±

1 Oilers 110.3 99.3 8.0
2 Golden Knights 101.1 90.7 8.2
3 Kings 99.6 88.2 8.3
4 Canucks 91.0 55.1 8.3
5 Flames 83.9 23.6 8.4
6 Kraken 82.9 20.0 8.4
7 Ducks 76.0 5.4 8.4
8 Sharks 72.1 1.9 8.3

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · 14d

The '25-26 NHL season starts in two weeks and (not) surprisingly, there's still nothing happening. We spent the entire episode trying to evaluate teams based on our general feelings before the EH projections are finished. It went about as well as you would expect.

www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

Episode 156: Pre-Preseason Projections - Evolving Hockey Podcast

The '25-26 NHL season starts in two weeks and (not) surprisingly, there's still nothing happening. We spent the entire episode trying to evaluate teams based on our general feelings before the EH proj...

www.buzzsprout.com

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · 17d

And we're off

Shot chart for the St. Louis Blues - Dallas Stars 2025-09-20 preseason game. STL: 0.68xG, DAL: 0.68xG

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · 21d

We're getting back into the swing of things, even if there's only one thing going on right now (see: title). We spent the first half rambling about our respective other favorite sports (bowling and golf, obviously). Later, we analyzed the Kaprizov "situation".

www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

Episode 155: The Kaprizov Situation - Evolving Hockey Podcast

We're getting back into the swing of things, even if there's only one of those things going on right now (see: title). We spent the first half rambling about our respective other favorite sports (bowl...

www.buzzsprout.com

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Sep 4

Fantasy Projections are up on the site!

We spent the first half chatting about the MN State Fair and burning yards before moving on to the topic at hand. Later we covered our under-covered (our fault) GAR projections and good defensemen.

www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

Episode 154: Fantasy Projections and Burning Property - Evolving Hockey Podcast

As we continue to get back into the swing of things this summer, our Fantasy Projections came out last week. We spent the first half chatting about the MN State Fair and burning yards before moving on...

www.buzzsprout.com

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Aug 29

ICYMI: our fantasy projections for the 25-26 NHL season are live!

Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Aug 29

# - Announcement - #

NHL Fantasy Projections for the '25-26 season have been updated and are now live on the site! Check out our Glossary section for information on how the projections/tools work!

Projections: evolving-hockey.com/stats/fantas...

Glossary: evolving-hockey.com/glossary/fan...

Screenshot of the Fantasy Projections page from Evolving Hockey. Various filter and weight options are displayed at the top, and the top five players in the table based on the default weights for a points league appear below:

Nathan MacKinnon
David Pastrnak
Nikita Kucherov
Connor McDavid
Leon Draisaitl

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Aug 29

# - Announcement - #

NHL Fantasy Projections for the '25-26 season have been updated and are now live on the site! Check out our Glossary section for information on how the projections/tools work!

Projections: evolving-hockey.com/stats/fantas...

Glossary: evolving-hockey.com/glossary/fan...

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Aug 26

Marco Rossi signed a contract and nothing else happened. It's been a few weeks since our last episode, and after a (much needed) break from hockey this summer, we're back to chat about essentially everything but that. This was a bit shorter, but we're just vibing.

www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

Episode 153: Offseason Vibes - Evolving Hockey Podcast

Marco Rossi signed a contract and nothing else happened this month. It's been a few weeks since our last episode, and after a (much needed) break from hockey this summer, we're back to chat about esse...

www.buzzsprout.com

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Aug 5

We, without much thought to it, ended up taking a long break this July. But now that we have all contracts tracked, we can evaluate our projection model and discuss the market. We spent the whole episode doing just that, and talking bowling. It's fun to be back.
www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

Episode 152: Midsummer Free Agency Check In - Evolving Hockey Podcast

We, without much thought to it, ended up taking a long break this July. But now that we have all contracts tracked, we can evaluate our projection model and discuss the market. We spent the whole epis...

www.buzzsprout.com

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Jul 7

Despite a weak free agency class, myriad contracts signed before July 1st, and an excess of money still in teams' hands, over 200 contracts have been signed in the last week. We spent the entire episode talking about the interesting ones.

www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

Episode 151: 2025 Free Agency - Week 1 - Evolving Hockey Podcast

We got right down to business with this one. Despite a weak free agency class, myriad contracts signed before July 1st, and an excess of money still in team's hands, over 200 contracts have been signe...

www.buzzsprout.com

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Jun 30

It's everything you could ever want. Our 2025 NHL Free Agency Preview article is up!

This summer is going to be insane. Or it might not be. That would better for our models.

evolving-hockey.com/blog/evolvin...

Chart: Contracts Signed in May & June: Per Year
Data: Evolving Hockey & CapFriendly

Plot is a line graph with points at each year, which are shaded based on the number of contracts signed for the given year, showing the change in average cap hit of contracts signed during May & June from 2007-2025. X-axis shows years from 2007-2025, y-axis shows the average cap hit.

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Jun 30

It's our annual Free Agency Preview episode!

We spent the first half covering an exceptionally active last week and the second half discussing our preview of things to come. Also included: the draft, schedule changes, data annoyances, and bowling.
www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

Episode 150: 2025 NHL Free Agency Preview - Evolving Hockey Podcast

That's it. That's the episode. We spent the first half covering the exceptionally active last week and the second half discussing our preview of things to come. And also talking about the draft, sched...

www.buzzsprout.com

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Jun 28

ICMYI: Our GAR projections for the 25-26 season now are live!

Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Jun 28

Skater GAR Projections for the '25-26 season are now live on the site!

Projections can be found here: evolving-hockey.com/stats/player...

Have fun!

Screenshot of the Player Projections table from Evolving Hockey. Multiple filter options are shown at the top, and the top five players in the table are listed:

Connor McDavid: 19.3
David Pastrnak: 17.2
Nathan MacKinnon: 15.7
Quinn Hughes: 15.1
Leon Draisaitl: 14.4

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Jun 28

Skater GAR Projections for the '25-26 season are now live on the site!

Projections can be found here: evolving-hockey.com/stats/player...

Have fun!

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Jun 24

The Panthers are your 2025 Stanley Cup Champions! We spent the first half covering the final, discussing team strength, and talking about portable CD players and podcasts. Later we covered the surprising number of trades and signings over the last two weeks.

www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

Episode 149: Stanley Cup Review and Trades - Evolving Hockey Podcast

Upfront: we had some technical issues with this one, but we were all quite happy with our discussion(s) so we decided to upload this anyway. Apologies. The Panthers are your 2025 Stanley Cup Cham...

www.buzzsprout.com

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Jun 18

And with that, the 24-25 NHL season comes to a close. We were cheering for a game 7, but the Panthers simply played too well. Thanks for sticking with us! We're looking forward to free agency!

EH Shot Chart - EDM at FLA, 2025-06-17: EDM 1.59 - 2.99 FLA (xGF). NHL rink showing diamonds for shots with the size corresponding to the xG value of each shot. Florida heavily dominated

EH Rolling xGF Chart, 2025-06-17: EDM 1.59 - 3.82 FLA. Florida consistently higher all game (with added in shots at an empty net)

EH Rolling Corsi Chart, 2025-06-17: EDM 53.9 - 56.5 FLA. Shot rates very consistent for each team throughout the entire game.

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Jun 14

Panthers vs. Oilers, Game 5. Let's go

EH Game Projection for Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals: FLA 47.6% - 52.4% EDM

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Jun 13

The 24-25 Stanley Cup Finals through 4 games. What a series.

EH Win Probability Chart - 2025-06-04, FLA at EDM

EDM wins 4-3 in OT after coming back from a 1-3 deficit early in the 2nd period.

EH Win Probability Chart - 2025-06-06, FLA at EDM

FLA wins in OT 5-4 after a tumultuous first period and EDM tying the game 4-4 at the end of the 2nd period

EH Win Probability Chart - 2025-06-09, EDM at FLA

Blowout win by FLA

EH Win Probability Chart - 2025-06-12, EDM at FLA

EDM wins 5-4 in OT after FLA blows a 3-0 lead - FLA tied it 4-4 at the very end of the 3rd period to sent it to OT.

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Jun 5

That's a very good question. For the player projections that go into our game projections, we use each player's prior 3 regular seasons (regardless of missed seasons). There is possibly a "better" way to do it, but this led to the best out of sample results during testing.

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Jun 4

Well, look at that... My process pulls in each player's most recent regular season games played (Kane played 77 regular season games in 23-24). I'll need to update that for next year's playoffs. Thank you for pointing that out!

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Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Jun 4

It's each player's games played in the 24-25 regular season.

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Reposted by Evolving-Hockey

Evolving-Hockey @evolving-hockey.com · Jun 3

The 2025 Stanley Cup Final is here!

Remember, have fun. And listen to Boyz II Men for some reason.

evolving-hockey.com/blog/evolvin...

Edmonton Oilers 52.9%
Florida Panthers 47.1%

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