Also, there's an extra $168 million in the backlog that was awarded one day after the close of the quarter.

Sales should finally increase at a faster rate in the coming quarters if my math on the asafm data is correct

I also used the VIX level coupled with only one additional indicator to avoid overfitting but it may work with more indicators (I didn't try)

When I did some statistical analysis on the VIX level I couldn't come up with any distribution that allowed me to forecast anything. I'd have had to use some other indicator, I tried valuations, put/call ratios, etc... but nothing produced good returns.

I basically normalized the curves so that I could create a matching algorithm. Not sure if this approach makes any sense at all 😅

A better solution to be long VIX was to use the first three months of the VIX curve, subdivide its shape in to quintiles and buy in the third quintile (if I recall well) and sell in the fifth.

I don't know how that would perform live, plus I'm too chicken shit to commit a substantial amount of money to vol strategies (it was easier with a smaller portfolio).
What I found back then was that using VIX levels didn't produce satisfactory results

I used to short VXX (before 0DTE) using data from the first two futures contracts and put/call ratios (sentiment indicator). I ran some statistical analysis on those and the results were good enough. Even in backtests I never managed to come up with a long vol strategy that was better than breakeven

If this is the program, it'll run until 2035

www.govconwire.com/2024/10/boei...

If I were an optimist I could argue that being awarded new programs is a good sign of things to come. But I'm not an optimist

"If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?"

The stock didn't seem to notice, totally on brand for NPK

A moat is just a hole in the ground with a liar standing next to it.

I've been told that a good substack wrote the thesis (and that's when the stock gapped). Why has it worked well? No clue, it may be a temporary rally or it may be that people realized that it was too cheap.

There was also a podcast on BSM a few years back, I'm trying to like it but it's tough. I'd be one of those people only buying it for the dividend yield...

Also, nat gas is rather cheap now. If I believe that it's going higher then why should I buy something that hedges the price?

Yeah, I agree on the incentives. I'm just unsure that I want to own a REIT-like structure

What are your thoughts on BSM? I don't understand their hedging policy and why they buy additional properties rather than buying back shares

Hussman first got bearish in his newsletter in 95. By the time the market finally corrected, post Internet bubble, it bottomed above where Hussman had become bearish. In my mind, this is called the ‘Hussman trap’. When your timing is so bad that even when you’re finally right you’re still wrong.