I will be in London until Tuesday. If you’re at the conference, drop me a message! Always happy to catch up ☕

We reconstructed site-level production data from the 1970s, covering over 70% of US crude oil and gas output. Our analysis shows that >90% of active US sites have been within 200km of a major climate-driven disaster in the last decade. We are now mapping how this propagates to futures prices.

Thanks for featuring my #EconJMP (A Tale of Commodities and Climate-driven Disasters, available at www.filippopellegrino.eu)!

Very good advice!

Thanks Remy!

If you have feedback or you’d like to talk about it, feel free to reach out! The paper is available at www.filippopellegrino.eu. 6/6

Furthermore, I find that vulnerable commodities experience slower recoveries from past shocks. This phenomenon is likely due to the time producers need to assess and disclose the actual extent of damages caused by disasters. 5/6

A long-only portfolio of vulnerable commodities yields a significant monthly alpha of 0.90%, whereas that of resilient commodities, albeit still significant, is negative at -0.43%, reflecting a premium paid for protection against climate shocks. 4/6

I manually annotate thousands of reports and maps to identify key commodity-producing sites at subnational level since the 1970s. Linking this data to disaster events, I find that production has become increasingly concentrated in high-risk areas within China, India and the United States. 3/6

Anecdotal evidence suggests that climate-driven disasters affect commodity production. However, lack of data on the geographical distribution of producers makes it difficult to assess the impact of such shocks on key commodity-producing sites. 2/6