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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

Another wildcard, I know for a fact, there are politicos in the UK, with no party allegiance currently, working on a UK styled MAGA Project 2025 style document, my understanding of it is Ireland dosent feature much in it, as I keep saying, times are a changing.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

So a I referred to or would coin as post-national, on the first day you started talking, local and international, but not national.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

As mentioned, an ECHR vote in UK most likely, at earliest, will be 2029. My prediction is, Ireland (not NI), will see civil unrest before then, making the paramilitary groups look like amateurs, and certainly tiny in comparison to whats coming - civil disobedience over immigration (put nicely).

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

Trump and MAGA are setting a precedent and a roadmap on how to 'deal' with treaty and agreements against national interest, something I'd strongly argue we have yet to see how that ripples across populist and nationalist worldwide going forward.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

I think you arent taking a lot of things into account, not certainties, but strong possibilities going forward. Firstly as said, I'm working on the presumption the first opportunity Brits have a chance to vote on leaving the ECHR will be 2029 (UK GE)...

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

Actually, I said that is preferred way, I've repeatedly said be careful what you wish for, and politics not least in the US is different. I'm old enough to have personally experienced IRA threats on mainland Britain. We now have a new generation coming through, and a different demographic...

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

Aw, is that you's blame the resurgence of loyalist paramilitary activity on.... So what about in the years before Brexit. It never went away, obviously not to the scale of the so called 'Troubles', and with ups and downs. Both Ireland and NI people made clear these group do not represent themselves.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

I get the distinct impression from you, when I say "when/if the UK votes to leave the ECHR" you think I believe the next day the UK leaves the ECHR. Last night, I even twice explicitly stated pretty well the (but not as nicely as you) exactly what you stated voluntarily in the screenshot above.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

Actually that is what I was in part referring to in part the Vienna convention. I love how keep saying you have been clear on this, yet just one example below were you explain how it would happen.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

A very similar type argument was made by the EU and remainers during the Brexit campaign, when it was argued there could be a negotiated outcome, which they denied until the end.

Then low and behold, and without doubt with time and some 'pain' we managed to do it.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

I'd also point out, whilst NI is a very important context when discussing the possible UK withdrawal from the ECHR, it is far from the only issue we will have deal with when it happens. The ECHR is inter-tangled in much UK legislation. Which is fine.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

Or alternatively, just like Brexit (again) there is a possibility NI could have a negotiated unique position within the UK, that in this case allows the provisions of the ECHR within.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

As I've said several times prior, whilst the GFA was signed (relatively) not so long ago, we live in a wildly different time, (geo)politically.

Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

Also, whilst separate to this discussion, at best the UK voting to leave the ECHR wont be on the cards till 2029. Meanwhile the wildcard, from an Irish perspective will be immigration, which may raise issues over ECHR and EU membership, in itself.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

Although, just like Brexit (again) there is a possibility NI could have a negotiated unique position within the UK, that allows the provisions of the ECHR within.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

I'd totally agree with that statement.

Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

Unless you want to geeky about it or think I am a Nazi, the definition of nationalism is pretty well defined in the context we are speaking about. Heres a Wikipedia link to it - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationa...

Nationalism - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

Obviously, neither of us can predict the future, but I'd strongly argue the writing is on the wall when it comes to the UK & the ECHR. No-where did I argue it wouldn't require diplomacy, possibly/probably some pain, or most likely be protracted, but in my view it is pretty inevitable now for the UK.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

Well on the latter point, that was often raised with the Brexit fear mongering, and never happened.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

No its not, as mentioned, I don't either - re-TikTok. A link is all that was required to back up your assertion.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

You are being disingenuous, a vote to leave the ECHR does not mean we walkaway from the GFA or safeguards, it means, in this case, any provisions that include the ECHR would have to be rewritten, to protect them. There are well laid out procedures for this at various levels.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

Which is why, a negotiated outcome, keeping those safeguards would have to be made. Sure, I mentioned, be careful what you wish for, its a different world, but that was on your insistence there are no alternatives, which clearly is incorrect.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

Your insistence (at least, at first) the UK cant leave the ECHR is disingenuous. You insist EU members are sovereign, and seem keen to espouse that whenever you can, but at the same time seem to be selective on international law when it comes to a future UK choosing to leave the ECHR.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

If you want call it destabilisation, thats certainly one characterisation, but there was no return to terrorism because of it, political, and some economic pain, sure, but it (unfortunately) was part of the democratic choice of the UK to leave the EU.

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Fish in the News @fishinthenews.bsky.social · Aug 2

But the UK still left the EU, a negotiated outcome was found to accommodate the unique circumstances of NI & Ireland. I've said several times, vote by the UK to leave the ECHR (whether via referendum or election manifesto) is just the start, what then follows would be much like Brexit negotiations.

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