FOHF
@fohf.bsky.social
2.1K followers 390 following 14 posts
I HAVE SEEN MY HAT
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fohf.bsky.social
From this description I guess Joe Marler.
fohf.bsky.social
Palm Beach for me as they hired a golf pro to do their marketing so he 1) didn’t understand the product and 2) was a huge draw for golf fans who didn’t ask many difficult questions (other than about their swing, presumably)
fohf.bsky.social
>> there hasn’t really been any. LMM still pricing 600+ is probably right for where rates are.
fohf.bsky.social
I agree, but if you’ve been running at close to 0% loss rates for 15 years and your investor base don’t care about liquidity (and frankly can shift large loans in the secondary market easily) your spread should compress in those deals. Credit pricing is always informed by loss experience and >>
fohf.bsky.social
FWIW factoring/MCA/receivables finance has always had a higher fraud rate than other areas of the lending market. Fans of history should look up Petters, Palm Beach as examples.
fohf.bsky.social
>> ‘premium’ there is a combination of illiquidity/small cap/complexity/cyclicality(they tend to be more widget manufacturers than SAAS or healthcare services which dominate the UMM.
fohf.bsky.social
The analysis gets being skewed by very large issuers who have the choice of BSL/PC interchangeably and who issue such large club deals that they are barely distinguishable from BSLs. Core middle market/lower middle market still holds more of a premium, generally for lower leverage so your >>
fohf.bsky.social
Jim Chanos, the famous equity investor?
fohf.bsky.social
Isn’t it wonderful and strangely peaceful?
fohf.bsky.social
And, naturally, the transmission mechanism is leverage.
fohf.bsky.social
And more normal market conditions. And the marginal consumer, albeit marginal, has an impact /end
fohf.bsky.social
“low value” consumers have a material impact as a consequence of a reach for higher yielding debt product. Covid-era cohorts have distorted perceptions of risk in sub/near-prime, leading to less appreciation/awareness of how *quickly* the marginal consumer slips into stress under higher rates /2
fohf.bsky.social
This stat (or similar) is often quoted to me as the reason why the US economy is actually fine because poorer consumers have less impact on the economic health of the whole so it matters less that they are struggling. I’d argue that the Tricolor bankruptcy is a clear demonstration of how /1
hudsonrivercroc.bsky.social
90% of stock wealth is owned by the wealthiest 10% who are also responsible for around 50% of consumption.