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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 11h

Per @massdara.bsky.social Russia is adapting, passing lessons to partners ... is NATO adapting as well? www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

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Reposted by Nikolas Gvosdev

Judah Grunstein @judah-grunstein.bsky.social · 16h

My professional timeline right now is made up of four distinct silos wrt the principal global threat/challenge we face, in roughly this order:

1. AI

2. Russia

3. China

4. Climate

I'd reverse the order and eliminate the silos.

But most notably, Trump II has no plan for dealing with any of them.

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 11h

Because of the interruption of track 2 encounters between American and Russians, we are less familiar with the political dynamics in Russia, and the rising generation of leaders is better known in Asia than here ... www.rand.org/pubs/comment...

Preparing for the Death of Putin

Vladimir Putin turns 73 on Oct. 7. That's old for a Russian, but even if he is fanatical about his health, he cannot continue indefinitely. Strategic stability in Europe's future depends on treating P...

www.rand.org

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 11h

Very important analysis from @massdara.bsky.social
… Russia learning from its mistakes and adapting …
www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/how-r...

How Russia Recovered

What the Kremlin is learning from the war in Ukraine.

www.foreignaffairs.com

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 1d

For all the talk about Tomahawks to Ukraine, on top of surging demand elsewhere, components and labor remain critical bottlenecks to scaling up production. 2/

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 1d

Great discussion by @soliman.bsky.social at @fpri.bsky.social. Even with increases in defense spending, it is the capacity to produce at scale which is going to matter. Do you have the supply chains, raw materials and components in place and the industrial capacity and the requisite labor force? 1/

Mohammed Soliman @soliman.bsky.social · 1d

I keep returning to America's scale problem, and I've decided it's more effective to frame it using defense terms to illustrate its concrete meaning.

www.fpri.org/article/2025...

America's Scale Problem - Foreign Policy Research Institute

There is a peculiar irony in watching the world's most technologically advanced military struggle with something as basic as making enough bullets. Yet this

www.fpri.org

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 1d

A great discussion (and graphic) on how China operates its #roundabout system to obtain Iranian oil to circumvent sanctions. www.linkedin.com/posts/george...

#china #iran #sanctions | George Voloshin, CAMS CGSS

The WSJ has an interesting story out about how #China and #Iran use multi-billion-dollar barter schemes to conduct bilateral trade, in this particular example bartering Iranian crude oil for Chinese e...

www.linkedin.com

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 1d

More reports from frontlines in Ukraine discuss inability to move large numbers of vehicles/people close due to drones, need for light speedy vehicles to move quickly for small squads ... builds on analysis here but also raises questions about what U.S. is procuring. www.linkedin.com/pulse/trying...

Trying to Discern Military Lessons from Ukraine

I am trying to put assemble what I think are some of the key lessons militaries and national security establishments around the world should be learning from the way the conflict between Russia and Uk...

www.linkedin.com

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 1d

Important reminder that air conditioning seen as a marker of middle class status and an increasing necessity in many parts of the world will also be a driver of energy demand. #prosperity_legitimacy_equation #trilemma

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 1d

With U.S. government acquisition of 10% stake in Trilogy Metals, we are moving along the sovereign wealth fund management path … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

US government to take 10% stake in Canada’s Trilogy Metals | Nikolas Gvosdev

Seeing Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes describing what is happening here as following a “quasi-sovereign wealth fund model” reposting my thoughts from yesterday … If the U.S. government is going to continue to...

www.linkedin.com

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 2d

Point from @soliman.bsky.social: "Critical mineral partnerships and supply chains will determine national industries, economic growth, and geopolitical power."

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 2d

Really think the administration needs to move on setting up a U.S. sovereign wealth fund and establish the structure for how the equity stakes the USG is acquiring will be managed.

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 2d

A great discussion of both #fracturedglobalization and #roundabout strategies for sanctions evasion.

www.linkedin.com/posts/jack-f...

#commodities #copper #barter #iran #china | Jack Farchy

An unprecedented wave of western sanctions has fragmented the global trading system and spurred a renaissance in the age-old art of barter. Every few months, a consignment of car parts rolls off a p...

www.linkedin.com

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 3d

Deputy Ag Minister Patrushev’s meetings in India including with PM Modi drive home point that U.S. can’t get meaningful decoupling from Russia as long as Moscow remains critical to solving India’s #trilemma.

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 3d

Are we entering a new commodities super cycle? www.linkedin.com/posts/alexan...

A new commodities supercycle is forming. Here’s what that means...and why companies with deployed electronic assets need to pay attention: What is a commodities supercycle? It's a long-term peri...

A new commodities supercycle is forming. Here’s what that means...and why companies with deployed electronic assets need to pay attention: What is a commodities supercycle? It's a long-term period w...

www.linkedin.com

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 5d

Russia benefits as both a leading gold producer as well as having a large stockpile. The massive increase in the value of its gold holdings will compensate for the assets currently frozen in the West.

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 5d

Gold is sky-high ... what this might portend? www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

Markets trust metal, not men - Asia Times | South Shore Consulting

Gold is 723.45% above its price 20 years ago ... now over $3800 an ounce. In Asia Times #GRRM (Global Risk-Reward Monitor), Diego Faßnacht, CFA concludes: "For investors, the message is clear: even as...

www.linkedin.com

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 5d

Gold is sky-high ... what this might portend? www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

Markets trust metal, not men - Asia Times | South Shore Consulting

Gold is 723.45% above its price 20 years ago ... now over $3800 an ounce. In Asia Times #GRRM (Global Risk-Reward Monitor), Diego Faßnacht, CFA concludes: "For investors, the message is clear: even as...

www.linkedin.com

Reposted by Nikolas Gvosdev

Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 5d

Thanks Nick. Here’s a shot of my similar classification device from a piece I wrote for him a couple if years ago. www.fpri.org/article/2023...

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 5d

Great analysis by Ryan Fedasiuk of both the bureaucratic politics within the administration on China as well as competing perspectives. Heard echoes of some things that @rajakorman.bsky.social and I have been working on over the years. www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

The War for America's China Policy | Nikolas Gvosdev

This account of different factions within the administration with different perspectives and policy prescriptions on China by Ryan Fedasiuk reminded me of something Karthik Sankaran had written for Fo...

www.linkedin.com

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 6d

First thoughts ... Trying to Discern Military Lessons from Ukraine www.linkedin.com/pulse/trying...

Trying to Discern Military Lessons from Ukraine

I am trying to put assemble what I think are some of the key lessons militaries and national security establishments around the world should be learning from the way the conflict between Russia and Uk...

www.linkedin.com

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 6d

www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola.... Pursuing strategies of food and energy abundance will be critical for national security and building up resiliency in partners. #trilemma

Catalyzing Global Energy and Food Abundance Benefits USA | Nikolas Gvosdev

It is very critical to change the perception of food and energy scarcity as largely questions of humanitarian relief in favor of seeing them (along with water, to complete the #trilemma) as bedrock to...

www.linkedin.com

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 6d

www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola.... Why #recycling matters …

Bolstering recycling capabilities as a way to bridge the gap between shorter-term supply gaps and the timeline for bringing new greenfield projects on line … | Nikolas Gvosdev

Bolstering recycling capabilities as a way to bridge the gap between shorter-term supply gaps and the timeline for bringing new greenfield projects on line …

www.linkedin.com

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 8d

The United Nations is returning to its Cold War state ... remaining a place for dialogue and diplomacy, handling some technical matters ... but not able to take the lead in solving global conflicts. news.day.az/world/178402...

Будущее безопасности за региональными союзами, а не за Совбезом ООН – ВЗГЛЯД из США

Реальных вариантов, которые поддержали бы все пять постоянных членов Совета Безопасности ООН, попросту нет. Максимум возможны небольшие изменения по периферии, но не коренная реформа. То, что эти госу...

news.day.az

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 8d

Some thoughts on UN reform ... news.day.az/world/178402...

Будущее безопасности за региональными союзами, а не за Совбезом ООН – ВЗГЛЯД из США

Реальных вариантов, которые поддержали бы все пять постоянных членов Совета Безопасности ООН, попросту нет. Максимум возможны небольшие изменения по периферии, но не коренная реформа. То, что эти госу...

news.day.az

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 8d

Not quite a golden share, but still a U.S. government equity position … #statecapitalism …

Reuters @reuters.com · 8d

US government to take 5% stake in Lithium Americas and joint venture with General Motors, source says reut.rs/46xuodL

US government to take 5% stake in Lithium Americas and joint venture with General Motors, source says

The U.S. Department of Energy will take a 5% stake in Lithium Americas and a separate 5% stake in the company's Thacker Pass lithium mine joint venture with General Motors , according to a source familiar with negotiations.

reut.rs

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