Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 17h

Not often there's a media report on Burundi .. so appreciate this by the FT and Andres Schipani

Serene Doomer @serenaribena.bsky.social · 2d

'Burundi endures ‘worst economic crisis in a country not at war’...

“We ate some fish in 2019. That was a good day,” said 40yo Aleko in Buterere... in the landlocked African nation of Burundi. “Now, every once in a while, we eat peanuts. This is worse than before,”'

www.ft.com/content/4aca...

Burundi endures ‘worst economic crisis in a country not at war’

Central African nation struggles to emerge from poverty and conflict as president promises reform

www.ft.com

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 5d

This is great piece, very clear and well structured

When the AI stock bubble crashes, it won’t necessitate QE type policies from the Fed as the bubble is built on equity on debt

Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 5d

Many thanks to @tonytassell.bsky.social at the @financialtimes.com Times for asking me to share my thoughts on why I believe the AI capex boom signals the start of the end-game for this phase of the AI bubble.

www.ft.com/content/c7b9...

The AI capex endgame is approaching

The rapid building of excess capacity both extends bubbles and ultimately bursts them

www.ft.com

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 6d

🙏 I’m sure P&G would have cited other issues.

And to be fair, in a country Pakistan’s size there will be areas with millions of people with the skills to do manufacturing.

My point is that disappointment and problems are more likely than easy successes that last decades (Vietnam, Korea, etc)

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 6d

Pakistan is not ready to industrialise, due to low female literacy.

P&G decision to stop manufacturing razors and other goods, is evidence of this.

See “The Time Travelling Economist”

Unfortunate for this government which has done an excellent job in bringing macro stability to Pakistan

The Standard @thestandard.com.pk · 6d

P&G announces it is shutting down operations in Pakistan, with Gillette Pakistan Limited notifying PSX of intent to delist in light of parent company’s decision

P&G to Shut Down Operations in Pakistan

Gillette Pakistan Limited has notified PSX of intent to delist in light of parent company’s decision

thestandard.com.pk

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 7d

AGOA expired last night, but most assume it will be renewed, and attached to some other legislation Congress passes

Doubt it'll show up in trade data if we get renewal in the next few weeks

Ex-AGOA, Kenya's total tariff increase half of China or India, but above Vietnam

unctad.org/news/tariffs...

Tariffs, trade and preferences: What if AGOA ends?

Market access to the United States could further deteriorate for many African countries if the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is not renewed before its expiration on 30 September 2025.

unctad.org

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 8d

Bernanke, 2008

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 8d

US government looming shutdown

All important upcoming Argentina elections

Zimbabwe introduces a new currency to control inflation

Any other headlines you've read more times than you can count over your career?

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 8d

Sounds like most of them haven't been to Saudi Arabia, and that includes the ones refusing to go

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 8d

Some basically good inflation data out of Uganda, rising from 3.8% to 4.0% driven by tomatoes and pineapples from what I can see.

Good news for bullish Uganda bond investors .. and there's a lot of you about

www.ubos.org/wp-content/u...

www.ubos.org

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 8d

Lesotho called this first .. which is curious given they were hit hardest in Africa in the original April tariffs (since much reduced) www.reuters.com/world/africa...

US plans to extend Africa trade deal by a year, says Lesotho minister

Lesotho's trade minister said on Wednesday that the U.S. plans to extend the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which gives the continent preferential access to U.S. markets, by a year, after returning from a visit to Washington.

www.reuters.com

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 8d

Good news on AGOA, especially for SA, Kenya, Madagascar and DR Congo among the non-oil beneficiaries

Uncertain which piece of legislation it can be attached to .. or whether we face a temporary interruption until the US government shutdown is over (a month with Trump last time)

t.co/XrO0ljvBN0

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/trump-administration-says-it-supports-1-year-renewal-africa-trade-initiative-2025-09-29/

t.co

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 8d

A little economic history on how the US dollar rose, and then fell, before becoming the world’s dominant currency, by Barry Eichengreen

Today China remains far from from rivalling the US based on these factors

www.wsj.com/finance/curr...

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 9d

Morocco gets back the investment grade it lost in 2021. The other two agencies are still 1 notch lower, with stable outlooks on their Ba1 and BB+ sub-investment grade ratings

S&P thinks budget deficit will be 3% of GDP in 2026 and the C/A deficit will remain small

www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...

www.spglobal.com

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 9d

WSJ online led with Cook court cases twice in recent weeks (FT didn’t). Today WSJ leading with credit market .. FT UK with a story about Jaguar Land Rover

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 9d

It’s a shame to see the FT ignore the first half of its name. First 9 pages of UK edition has no reference to an exchange rate or interest rate, or an equity or bond price.
The Argentine peso gets a mention on page 10.
Silver lining, FT only needs skim reading
WSJ now becoming required reading

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 13d

Good timing

EM_Credit_Fund @emcreditfund.bsky.social · 20d

This one is over. Time to flip it.

Argent > Ecua.

EM_Credit_Fund @emcreditfund.bsky.social · Aug 27

Never. In. Doubt. 😂

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 13d

Interesting. Kindle version too?

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 14d

Trump now highlighting the gasoline queues in his latest post on Ukraine bsky.app/profile/wart...

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 15d

"With EU support, Ukraine is capable of fighting and winning, restoring the entire country to its original state." — Trump.

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 14d

I’ve seen similar queues for fuel in Nigeria and Zimbabwe.

Not a comparison that Putin would appreciate

bsky.app/profile/mili...

🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 @militarynewsua.bsky.social · Sep 6

❗️Fuel shortages continue at gas stations in 🇷🇺Russia. Long queues

Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 14d

The Trump administration doesn’t want Russian crude exports disrupted because he wants lower pump prices.

But apparently the US does not mind this pressure on Russia.

Testing NATO in Poland and Estonia may be Russia’s response

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 15d

⚡️Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries drop Russian diesel exports to 5-year low, FT reports.

Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries drop Russian diesel exports to 5-year low, FT reports

According to FT, 16 of Russia's 38 oil refineries have been struck by Ukrainian drones since August 2025. The disruptions have limited Russia's refining capacity by over 1 million barrels per day, the...

kyivindependent.com

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 17d

The 2021 paper on inelastic markets cited in the FT piece; the conclusion page has a quote or two to throw into market conversations

www.nber.org/system/files...

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Reposted by Charlie Robertson

Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 17d

"Jean-Philippe Bouchaud is both baffled and frustrated by how economics has fallen in thrall to theorists — mathematical, social or political — and become bereft of the rigour of proper sciences, where real-world experiments and experiences actually matter."
Aren't we all?
www.ft.com/content/6f54...

Investor Jean-Philippe Bouchaud: ‘The whole bull run is because of an influx of money’

The physicist and hedge fund manager on why the efficient markets theory is ‘all wrong’, economists with ‘mathematics envy’ — and what Camus can teach us about compromise

www.ft.com

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 22d

t.co/PiDcEukYMS

https://bit.ly/213_TC

t.co

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 22d

The judiciary is looking politicised in the US, with the appeals court backing Fed’s Cook vs Trump, but in a 2-1 decision

The 2 appointed by Biden backed Cook. Trump’s appointee backed the White House

It’s not the institutions, it’s the people

www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

Appeals Court Rejects Trump Request to Remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook

The decision comes just hours before the central bank’s next meeting begins.

www.wsj.com

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 23d

Botswana credit rating downgraded from BBB+ to BBB, still one notch above the lowest investment grade rating of BBB-.

Botswana started with a A rating in 2001 from S&P, cut to A- after the global financial crisis and to BBB+ during COVID

The external shock hitting Botswana now is very specific

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