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Ed Bradford

@fullcarry.net

3.1K followers 120 following 1K posts

US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 2d

Regular reminder that there is nothing unusual about long end pricing. In fact, there is scope for higher yields even with overnight rates at 3% (~ current terminal rate)

Average 30y spread to EFFR

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 6h

10s have been a favorite this year as more generous term premium attracted buyers to the tenor. Looking a bit pricey here relative to recent auctions but still enough TP juice to attract a bid.

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 1d

They probably want to avoid that kind of entanglement

Reposted by Ed Bradford

George Pearkes @peark.es · 1d

Absolute madness.

Chart showing the performance of an equal weight index of four quantum stocks (IONQ, RGTI, QBTS, QUBT) over past two years. The index has risen 3671% since last October.

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 1d

The four big ones... including a former beverage company :)

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 1d

Starting to get spooky.... another spin up day for pure play quantum stocks.

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 1d

With year-end overnight rate priced at 3.64 (EFFR), it should be an easy 3y note UST auction today. WIs 3.62

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 2d

"blind auctions" nice!

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 2d

Regular reminder that there is nothing unusual about long end pricing. In fact, there is scope for higher yields even with overnight rates at 3% (~ current terminal rate)

Average 30y spread to EFFR

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 5d

With the continued government shutdown, no NFP print but ISM Services does have an employment index to give Ts a but of excitement. The gauge has been relatively weak recently, with Aug at 46.5

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 7d

Job week could be down to ADP and the ISM Services labor market gauge.

So some eye-twitching for ADP this morning?

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 8d

I believe you have the wrong country

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 8d

I do think that's the correct framing.

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 8d

Largest drop since April

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 8d

Another cycle low in the Conference Board's labor market gauge

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 8d

A jobs week quarter-end will cause some challenging flows next few days especially with a govt shutdown looming. With another rate cut in Oct priced above 80%, Friday's payroll print will have an outsized impact should it actually happen. Exp are for a 51K headline

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 12d

Yen has been the worst anti-USD play and no better measure of that than EURJPY eyeballing ATHs

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 12d

Silver prices are now 32% above their 200 DMA and definitely overbought but it isn't epic yet.

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 13d

Swap spreads widened a bit after Fed's Logan floated the idea of moving to a different benchmark rate. She suggested TGCR which is an overnight funding rate for USTs and as such would make the Fed more sensitive to daily funding changes and reduces tail risks of crazy rates like 2019

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 14d

While I am no fan of the belly, 5s have cheapened significantly recently and is well set up for it's auction today.

2s5s30s 'fly

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 15d

I think it is more Zelensky stroking his ego

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 15d

Front-end pressure continues with supply this week (2s, 5s and 7s) but '25 rate cuts holding up with market pricing another 44 bps of cuts for the remainder of the year. 2s look attractive

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 16d

Last cycle EFFR started it's craziness once Bank Reserves fell below 8% of NGDP

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 16d

SOFR will continue to be messy going into key dates like quarter-ends, settlement and tax payment dates

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 16d

Quiet supply week for USTs so I thought it might be useful to update my Fed balance sheet chart now that TGA is almost refilled and RRP drained. Bank reserves are down to 10% (ish) of NGDP and probably still have room to go lower before EFFR elevates.

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 19d

I don't think so. There is still abundant reserves outside of year-end and other significant regulatory dates. SRF is supposed to help with seasonal demand.