Gabriel Sterne
@gabrielsterne.bsky.social
850 followers 140 following 120 posts
Emerging markets, central banks, other stuff. Economist, Oxford Economics, previously Exotix, BoE, IMF, CB of Solomon Islands (ODI)
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Reposted by Gabriel Sterne
katie0martin.ft.com
more than a whiff of self-censorship in markets at the moment. No-one wants to call BS on, ya know, everything, for fear of angering the president

on.ft.com/4pRyTHp
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
Trump's Argentine bail out could set up biggest sovereign story of the decade. If Argentina defaults despite the bail out, Trump will want seniority, but IMF cant give it. You can imagine how this descends into a colossal row between IMF and its biggest shareholder www.ft.com/content/4127...
Bessent says US in talks with Argentina over $20bn swap line
Proposed measure comes as Trump administration seeks to support Javier Milei’s libertarian government
www.ft.com
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
So true. Rented a car this summer and drove 100 miles having been given wrong key. It was in his pocket so car started😡
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
EM Asia now clearly the most vulnerable in my latest global tariff rankings.
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
A silver cigarette box, with Eddie George's hand offering them to Bank of England youngsters (those selected for one of his "tea with the Deputy Governor" office hours)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Bank of England: What will the new banknotes look like?
Young people are among those suggesting new themes for the biggest change to banknotes in 50 years.
www.bbc.co.uk
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
OK I admit it, nobody is perfect, I cant write research as quickly as Trump can write letters
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
Losing a 287 day Duolingo streak turned out to be surprisingly liberating. The tinge of sadness far outweighed by the satisfaction of sticking 2 fingers up at a nauseatingly nagging algorithm
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
Trump caves in to pressure to make chart scales more suitable for non-Chinese economies
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
My own bit of paradise after London Marathon. Blew up in last 5k but still got PB of 3.03.

Amazing support so much appreciated. Love the way Brits become the most friendly folk in world to those with marathon medal
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
A 19pt swing in net approval since inauguration... even before Main St endures tariff impact. When are the mid-terms? When will he start to lose his grip on US inc. and Republican politicians?

www.natesilver.net/p/trump-appr...
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
Good news for Japan, Korea, Germany. Its not just about how much the US is tariffing you, but also how much the US is tariffing your competitors...
For now thats mainly an issue of how much you compete with China in US markets, but that could change faster than you can say the word "liberation"
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
Trump and Lula, brothers in self-defeating credibility destruction.
"BCB will be forced to address market backlash following perception that appointments and decisions represent dovish turn from central bank, causing the BCB to convince public otherwise." @fcamargo.bsky.social (2024)
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
Interesting IMF GFSR piece on financial spillovers from EMs having increased since GFC, though I wonder how much of that is down to a China story that is based on what happened a few years ago
www.imf.org/~/media/Webs...
www.imf.org
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
Political attacks like this typically mean policy needs to tighten to offset credibility loss…

Lula’s foolish interventions in Brazil the most glaring example

www.ft.com/content/1cd3...
Dollar weakens after Trump attacks on Fed
Gold price climbs while Swiss franc reaches 10-year high
www.ft.com
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
Non-China Asia is a big relative* winner at this stage of the tariff war season, having had a terrible start on liberation day. Their own-tariff rates have fallen dramatically relative to their competitors in US import markets (China's pain, others gain)

*Pretty much everyone is an absolute loser
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
You couldn't make it up. You just couldn't.

Trump's rant against US sending condoms to Hamas was based on the fact that US was sending condoms to Gaza...
... that's Gaza Mozambique, which suffers from the highest AIDs in Mozambique

www.wsj.com/world/africa...?
In the Other Gaza, Trump’s War on Waste Baffles Mozambique
The White House claimed U.S. aid workers shipped 3.3 billion condoms to Hamas. They didn’t.
www.wsj.com
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
Makes Liz Truss look like a winner
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
I predict H2 2026 will see a boom in US citizens turning up in Canada, Europe, Asia with empty suitcases and returning with full ones....

...Actually suitcases will be much cheaper over here too now I think about it.
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
Do you remember the days when you used to go to New York to buy consumer electronics?
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
Beyond obscure. Love it…. When is the book coming out!
gabrielsterne.bsky.social
Trump net popularity has moved down 12 ppts since late Jan... big move in last few days. I wonder at what point Congressional support starts to ebb www.natesilver.net/p/trump-appr...
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
www.natesilver.net