Joseph Gagnon
@gagnonmacro.bsky.social
International macroeconomist. I specialize in exchange rates, trade balances, monetary policy, and inflation.
Starting soon www.piie.com/events/2025/...
The changing dollar regime: An update
This event revisits and expands on themes from PIIE’s spring discussion, “Does changing the trade regime change the dollar regime? To Mar-a-Lago and beyond.” Against the backdrop of shifting trade pol...
www.piie.com
October 16, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Starting soon www.piie.com/events/2025/...
Reposted by Joseph Gagnon
My article The New Economic Geography is out today in @foreignaffairs.com
Please read!
(Ungated link, suitable for sharing)
shared.outlook.inky.com/link?domain=...
Please read!
(Ungated link, suitable for sharing)
shared.outlook.inky.com/link?domain=...
The New Economic Geography
Who profits in a post-American world?
shared.outlook.inky.com
August 19, 2025 at 11:53 AM
My article The New Economic Geography is out today in @foreignaffairs.com
Please read!
(Ungated link, suitable for sharing)
shared.outlook.inky.com/link?domain=...
Please read!
(Ungated link, suitable for sharing)
shared.outlook.inky.com/link?domain=...
My latest blog post with Steve Kamin explores the dilemma of the Fed’s next meeting. Markets expect a cut, but inflation expectations are rising. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
The Fed’s September dilemma
The Federal Reserve’s September 16-17 policy meeting may well be one of the most contentious in years. Although financial market investors see a 25 basis point interest rate cut as close to a lock, so...
www.piie.com
August 19, 2025 at 5:03 PM
My latest blog post with Steve Kamin explores the dilemma of the Fed’s next meeting. Markets expect a cut, but inflation expectations are rising. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
My latest with Tam Bayoumi on the real causes of the US trade deficit (not foreign tariffs or barriers) and why it is not sustainable. www.piie.com/publications...
The US trade deficit and foreign borrowing: How long can it continue?
The United States has run significant external deficits for half a century and the associated net international liabilities have been growing, especially recently. Yet, in contrast to earlier periods ...
www.piie.com
July 9, 2025 at 2:11 PM
My latest with Tam Bayoumi on the real causes of the US trade deficit (not foreign tariffs or barriers) and why it is not sustainable. www.piie.com/publications...
My colleague Asher Rose just posted a nice chart showing the Fed’s projected return to profitability after 3 years of losses. QE raises Fed profits and makes them more variable. www.piie.com/research/pii...
Fed projected to turn profitable again after three years of losses
www.piie.com
June 18, 2025 at 4:52 PM
My colleague Asher Rose just posted a nice chart showing the Fed’s projected return to profitability after 3 years of losses. QE raises Fed profits and makes them more variable. www.piie.com/research/pii...
My paper with Steve Kamin on long memory in COVID inflation is now on the PIIE website. www.piie.com/publications...
The role of long histories of "lived experience" in the COVID-era inflationary surge
A rough consensus has evolved around the causes of the COVID-era inflationary spike: the disruption in supply chains; the shift in demand from services to goods; the surge in commodity prices that fol...
www.piie.com
April 30, 2025 at 8:12 PM
My paper with Steve Kamin on long memory in COVID inflation is now on the PIIE website. www.piie.com/publications...
There is so much wrong with the new tariff policy, it is hard to begin. First of all, it makes no sense to tariff something we will never produce in the US. I don't see bananas and coffee on the exempted list. 1/n
April 3, 2025 at 1:07 PM
There is so much wrong with the new tariff policy, it is hard to begin. First of all, it makes no sense to tariff something we will never produce in the US. I don't see bananas and coffee on the exempted list. 1/n
Back from March vacation. My take on a Mar-a-Lago Accord is included in this symposium with other observers. I focused my remarks on what I would like to see, not what is likely to happen (which is not much in the near term). international-economy.com/TIE_F24_Mara...
international-economy.com
April 1, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Back from March vacation. My take on a Mar-a-Lago Accord is included in this symposium with other observers. I focused my remarks on what I would like to see, not what is likely to happen (which is not much in the near term). international-economy.com/TIE_F24_Mara...
In case anyone wants to read more about the effects of tariffs! www.eurofinance.com/news/the-hid...
The hidden costs of Trump’s tariffs: productivity loss and market uncertainty - EuroFinance | The global treasury community
On March 5, US President Donald Trump addressed Congress, opening his speech with the statement, "America is Back." During his address, Trump asserted that other nations have long imposed tariffs on ...
www.eurofinance.com
March 14, 2025 at 2:18 PM
In case anyone wants to read more about the effects of tariffs! www.eurofinance.com/news/the-hid...
Does it make sense to raise tariffs and cut interest rates now? No. www.voanews.com/a/trump-push...
Trump pushes for lower interest rates alongside reciprocal tariffs
US presidents traditionally avoid even the appearance of meddling with monetary policy
www.voanews.com
February 13, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Does it make sense to raise tariffs and cut interest rates now? No. www.voanews.com/a/trump-push...
I talk tariffs, trade deficits, and a lot more with @scclemons.bsky.social. t.co/5aT8g0WGSV
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6MeODGKmwg
t.co
February 11, 2025 at 8:12 PM
I talk tariffs, trade deficits, and a lot more with @scclemons.bsky.social. t.co/5aT8g0WGSV
On his first day in office, President Trump published a memo titled "America First Trade Policy." His first item of business, similar to 8 years ago, is to find out what causes our "trade deficits in goods". 1/n www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
America First Trade Policy – The White House
January 20, 2025 MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF STATE THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE THE SECRETARY OF COMMERCE THE SECRETARY OF
www.whitehouse.gov
January 21, 2025 at 3:09 PM
On his first day in office, President Trump published a memo titled "America First Trade Policy." His first item of business, similar to 8 years ago, is to find out what causes our "trade deficits in goods". 1/n www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
My paper with Asher Rose on a 75 year perspective on COVID inflation is out. www.piie.com/publications...
Why did inflation rise and fall so rapidly? Lessons from the Korean War
The speed of both the rise and fall of US inflation in 2021–23 took many economists by surprise. This paper shows that the rise of COVID era inflation reflects three independent shocks: a plethora of pandemic-related shifts in demand patterns and supply disruptions; the largest commodity price surge in 40 years caused by the Ukraine war; and strong monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic, which kept labor markets tight. The authors document the transmission of these shocks through the main components of private consumption: durable goods, nondurable goods, and services.
www.piie.com
January 17, 2025 at 6:25 PM
My paper with Asher Rose on a 75 year perspective on COVID inflation is out. www.piie.com/publications...