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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 2d

If you want to know more about Ukraine's overall strategy here, I produced a video on the subject a few weeks ago.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvha...

Ukraine's New BOPP Strategy: The Big Oil Power Play

YouTube video by William Spaniel

www.youtube.com

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 2d

Time lapse of every suspected Ukrainian attack on Russian energy infrastructure that I could find. I didn't fully appreciate the extent of the damage until I saw all of the Xs accumulate.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 3d

There appears to be some ambiguity about the cause, but this is consistent with what we should expect if Ukraine is getting clear maps of Russian defenses.

youtu.be/mjET8JH-zBg

Game Changer: How the U.S. Is Helping Ukraine Destroy Russian Refineries

YouTube video by William Spaniel

youtu.be

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 3d

Another night, another fire at a Russian refinery, this one about a 900 kilometers flight. Inset image is from NASA's fire tracker.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 4d

Covering a huge distance to hit a refinery is much easier to do when you know where the air defenses are.

(Note: There is no way to know whether U.S. intel contributed here, and Ukraine already struck it last month.)

youtu.be/mjET8JH-zBg

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 4d

Discussion of what U.S. intel sharing about long-distance targeting can do for Ukraine, and what it says about the overall U.S.-Ukraine relationship.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjET...

Game Changer: How the U.S. Is Helping Ukraine Destroy Russian Refineries

YouTube video by William Spaniel

www.youtube.com

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 5d

A discussion of just how much a possible no-fly zone in Ukraine has evolved over the last three years, and just how plausible Poland's plan is.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=diqh...

Inside the Plan to Impose a No-Fly Zone in Ukraine

YouTube video by William Spaniel

www.youtube.com

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 14d

(But really he said that NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft that enter their airspace.)

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 14d

Trump and Zelensky had a brief meeting at the United Nations today. The most important takeaway I got from it is that the U.N. has the same taste in discount Swedish furniture that I do.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 18d

Russia sent three fighters into Estonian airspace. NATO may be best off firing at them, but it is worth first thinking about what the Kremlin may be trying to do here.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVzC...

Three Russian Fighters Just Entered Estonian Air Space. What's Putin's Plan?

YouTube video by William Spaniel

www.youtube.com

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 18d

With multiple Russian MiGs violating Estonian air space today, this week’s video is looking all the more timely.

youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU

How Turkey Shot Down a Russian Bomber and the Kremlin Did Nothing in Response

YouTube video by William Spaniel

youtu.be

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 20d

There is a bunch of discussion of using Turkey’s zero-tolerance policy from 2015 as a template for handling Russia today. But the comparison is much more complicated.

youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU

How Turkey Shot Down a Russian Bomber and the Kremlin Did Nothing in Response

YouTube video by William Spaniel

youtu.be

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 22d

Here's another. Same idea but longer and even more blue sky.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 22d

I gather a lot of stock images/video. Usually I do it in a hurry. Rarely I find something so seemingly unreal that I would think if it was fake if I did not know any better and I just sit back in awe. Today I had one of those moments.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 24d

New air alerts in Poland and Romania, just a couple of hours after I posted this video. It is the first test of the "Eastern Sentry" counterstrategy. With this kind of frequency, though, we are inching closer to a more kinetic Western response.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-4e...

Time for Action: NATO’s Newly-Announced Plan to Counter Russia’s Drones

YouTube video by William Spaniel

www.youtube.com

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 27d

What's will Europe do in the aftermath of last night's drone incursions? Here are my initial thoughts.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYFp...

Poland Just Shot Down Russian Drones. Here's NATO's Next Move.

YouTube video by William Spaniel

www.youtube.com

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · 28d

As everyone brushes off their copies of the North Atlantic Treaty this morning to see what the heck Article 4 is, we all discover the document's only major flaw: its lack of Oxford commas.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · Sep 8

Also, there is this updated map of oil infrastructure (non-military, non-storage) since Ukraine's map began. Two more added since I last posted. Some flames are jittered because of Ukraine hitting the same location multiple times.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · Sep 8

Today's video is a detailed look at Ukraine's strategy strategy over the last month plus of refinery attacks. It is actually *two* separate campaigns, and they have interesting interactions with the broader strategies Ukraine and Western partners are pursuing.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvha...

Ukraine's New BOPP Strategy: The Big Oil Power Play

YouTube video by William Spaniel

www.youtube.com

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · Sep 7

But Politico does not tell us much about the extent of things, I would wait for the document itself before drawing a final conclusion about just how far this will go.

And I will probably do a deep dive on that too whenever it comes out. Subscribe in the meantime!

www.youtube.com/@LinesonMaps...

Lines on Maps Extra

The alternate channel for William Spaniel/Lines on Maps, with the original URL https://www.youtube.com/gametheory101. I post more casual content here.

www.youtube.com

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · Sep 7

In sum, I would not read the Politico report and conclude that the United States is about to turtle up in the Western Hemisphere. That may end being the case, and what is happening in Venezuela suggests some form of that may be happening.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · Sep 7

Those threats are not just coming from random places. They are threats from China and Russia (and Iran and North Korea). So the DIA analysis is emphasizing homeland risks, but the imperative is still on stopping those countries (plus non-state actors) from committing attacks on the U.S. homeland.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · Sep 7

The topline substantive chapter is indeed on the U.S. homeland. This marked a break from the Biden Administration, and I could see how a U.S. National Defense Strategy might do the same. But if you read it, two of the first three things discussed are missile threats and drones.

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · Sep 7

This is where I think the Defense Intelligence Agency's 2025 threat assessment might provide some insight. I did a very deep dive on the topic in the video from the top post of this thread. You can also read it for yourself here: armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfile...

armedservices.house.gov

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William Spaniel @gametheory101.bsky.social · Sep 7

However, that interpretation runs contrary to basically everything that the administration has produced and done thus far. That ranges from Under Sec for Policy Bridge Colby's fundamental concern about China, to U.S. actions in Yemen and Iran this year.

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