Gavin Bena 🗳
@gavinbena.bsky.social
your friendly local elections nerd & missouri young democrats representative for MO-02
Linktree: https://linktr.ee/gavinbena
Linktree: https://linktr.ee/gavinbena
Zohran Mamdani versus Everyone Else
Not meant to be a realistic reflection of hypothetical results if Sliwa dropped out, but neat to look at.
Worth noting that while Mamdani receives 'only' 50.4% of the vote, he wins a majority in 29 districts, 56.9% of NYC's 51.
Not meant to be a realistic reflection of hypothetical results if Sliwa dropped out, but neat to look at.
Worth noting that while Mamdani receives 'only' 50.4% of the vote, he wins a majority in 29 districts, 56.9% of NYC's 51.
November 11, 2025 at 12:14 AM
Zohran Mamdani versus Everyone Else
Not meant to be a realistic reflection of hypothetical results if Sliwa dropped out, but neat to look at.
Worth noting that while Mamdani receives 'only' 50.4% of the vote, he wins a majority in 29 districts, 56.9% of NYC's 51.
Not meant to be a realistic reflection of hypothetical results if Sliwa dropped out, but neat to look at.
Worth noting that while Mamdani receives 'only' 50.4% of the vote, he wins a majority in 29 districts, 56.9% of NYC's 51.
2025 New York City Mayoral election results by city council district:
November 9, 2025 at 9:59 PM
2025 New York City Mayoral election results by city council district:
Prediction versus Results:
Deeply whiffed on which way undecided Cuomo/Sliwa undecideds would break, not taking Trump's endorsement into account, but was mostly correct on Mamdani - underestimating him a bit among nonwhite voters, overestimating him a bit among white voters.
Deeply whiffed on which way undecided Cuomo/Sliwa undecideds would break, not taking Trump's endorsement into account, but was mostly correct on Mamdani - underestimating him a bit among nonwhite voters, overestimating him a bit among white voters.
November 9, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Prediction versus Results:
Deeply whiffed on which way undecided Cuomo/Sliwa undecideds would break, not taking Trump's endorsement into account, but was mostly correct on Mamdani - underestimating him a bit among nonwhite voters, overestimating him a bit among white voters.
Deeply whiffed on which way undecided Cuomo/Sliwa undecideds would break, not taking Trump's endorsement into account, but was mostly correct on Mamdani - underestimating him a bit among nonwhite voters, overestimating him a bit among white voters.
Voters in Mehlville School District, in South St. Louis County, Missouri, overwhelmingly voted to approve 2024’s existing $0.0326/$100 tax and a further $0.0240/$100 for 2025 to offset an expected decrease in debt service levies.
November 5, 2025 at 7:06 AM
Voters in Mehlville School District, in South St. Louis County, Missouri, overwhelmingly voted to approve 2024’s existing $0.0326/$100 tax and a further $0.0240/$100 for 2025 to offset an expected decrease in debt service levies.
Yikes.
Guessed well on Mamdani’s % and the coalitions, but my thought process that many Republicans would still hate Cuomo enough to stick with Silwa in the end was wrong.
Those fearmongering ads and Trump’s endorsement likely helped Cuomo, and that’s horrifying.
Guessed well on Mamdani’s % and the coalitions, but my thought process that many Republicans would still hate Cuomo enough to stick with Silwa in the end was wrong.
Those fearmongering ads and Trump’s endorsement likely helped Cuomo, and that’s horrifying.
November 5, 2025 at 5:34 AM
Yikes.
Guessed well on Mamdani’s % and the coalitions, but my thought process that many Republicans would still hate Cuomo enough to stick with Silwa in the end was wrong.
Those fearmongering ads and Trump’s endorsement likely helped Cuomo, and that’s horrifying.
Guessed well on Mamdani’s % and the coalitions, but my thought process that many Republicans would still hate Cuomo enough to stick with Silwa in the end was wrong.
Those fearmongering ads and Trump’s endorsement likely helped Cuomo, and that’s horrifying.
St. Louis County's biggest election tonight was Proposition S in Rockwood School District, which would have raised its tax levy by 45 cents per $100 of assessed valuation-from approximately $3.7426/$100 to $4.1926/$100.
With all polls closed, it was defeated by just 497 votes.
With all polls closed, it was defeated by just 497 votes.
November 5, 2025 at 4:29 AM
St. Louis County's biggest election tonight was Proposition S in Rockwood School District, which would have raised its tax levy by 45 cents per $100 of assessed valuation-from approximately $3.7426/$100 to $4.1926/$100.
With all polls closed, it was defeated by just 497 votes.
With all polls closed, it was defeated by just 497 votes.
Tossing in my final guess at NYC by council district:
A mashup of polls, demographic data, the 2025 primary and recent generals, plus whatever sliver of bias slipped in.
Among the main candidates:
Mamdani 51.1%, Cuomo 28.3%, Sliwa 20.6%
A mashup of polls, demographic data, the 2025 primary and recent generals, plus whatever sliver of bias slipped in.
Among the main candidates:
Mamdani 51.1%, Cuomo 28.3%, Sliwa 20.6%
November 5, 2025 at 12:04 AM
Tossing in my final guess at NYC by council district:
A mashup of polls, demographic data, the 2025 primary and recent generals, plus whatever sliver of bias slipped in.
Among the main candidates:
Mamdani 51.1%, Cuomo 28.3%, Sliwa 20.6%
A mashup of polls, demographic data, the 2025 primary and recent generals, plus whatever sliver of bias slipped in.
Among the main candidates:
Mamdani 51.1%, Cuomo 28.3%, Sliwa 20.6%
the BOA really looked at downtown and went “yeah… it’s worth facing a legal battle to turn this block into another parking lot”
November 1, 2025 at 4:38 AM
the BOA really looked at downtown and went “yeah… it’s worth facing a legal battle to turn this block into another parking lot”
According to proponents, the area isn't specifically designated by ordinance as a "park" so the section of the city charter doesn't apply
But opponents argue the city charter doesn't specifically *require* that the park be designated as such by city ordinance to be applicable
But opponents argue the city charter doesn't specifically *require* that the park be designated as such by city ordinance to be applicable
November 1, 2025 at 4:14 AM
According to proponents, the area isn't specifically designated by ordinance as a "park" so the section of the city charter doesn't apply
But opponents argue the city charter doesn't specifically *require* that the park be designated as such by city ordinance to be applicable
But opponents argue the city charter doesn't specifically *require* that the park be designated as such by city ordinance to be applicable
Today, St. Louis City's Board of Alders voted 10 against 5 to sell a city-owned green space downtown.
That might seem incredibly boring, because it is, but the vote was notably controversial because the city charter requires voters to approve the sale of any city-owned parks.
That might seem incredibly boring, because it is, but the vote was notably controversial because the city charter requires voters to approve the sale of any city-owned parks.
November 1, 2025 at 4:14 AM
Today, St. Louis City's Board of Alders voted 10 against 5 to sell a city-owned green space downtown.
That might seem incredibly boring, because it is, but the vote was notably controversial because the city charter requires voters to approve the sale of any city-owned parks.
That might seem incredibly boring, because it is, but the vote was notably controversial because the city charter requires voters to approve the sale of any city-owned parks.
louvre burglar
(jewelry not included)
(jewelry not included)
November 1, 2025 at 2:45 AM
louvre burglar
(jewelry not included)
(jewelry not included)
he doesn’t know he is 1 year old
October 30, 2025 at 7:42 PM
he doesn’t know he is 1 year old
It’s difficult not to take a side in the Democratic primary between Wesley Bell and Cori Bush when the Israeli government is just openly buying political ads
not AIPAC, not the UDP - these ads are paid for by Lapam, the Israel Government Advertising Agency
not AIPAC, not the UDP - these ads are paid for by Lapam, the Israel Government Advertising Agency
October 25, 2025 at 3:06 AM
It’s difficult not to take a side in the Democratic primary between Wesley Bell and Cori Bush when the Israeli government is just openly buying political ads
not AIPAC, not the UDP - these ads are paid for by Lapam, the Israel Government Advertising Agency
not AIPAC, not the UDP - these ads are paid for by Lapam, the Israel Government Advertising Agency
I’ve often said the House should be enlarged from 435 seats to 695, the cube root of the total US population.
If this happened, Missouri would go from 8 seats to 13. Here’s what I think a fair 13-seat map would look like, & some rough guesses at who would hold each seat.
If this happened, Missouri would go from 8 seats to 13. Here’s what I think a fair 13-seat map would look like, & some rough guesses at who would hold each seat.
October 24, 2025 at 11:50 PM
I’ve often said the House should be enlarged from 435 seats to 695, the cube root of the total US population.
If this happened, Missouri would go from 8 seats to 13. Here’s what I think a fair 13-seat map would look like, & some rough guesses at who would hold each seat.
If this happened, Missouri would go from 8 seats to 13. Here’s what I think a fair 13-seat map would look like, & some rough guesses at who would hold each seat.
this whole “getting better at public speaking by putting yourself out there” thing is incredibly terrifying when you have to follow up Fred Wellman of all people
October 22, 2025 at 3:55 PM
this whole “getting better at public speaking by putting yourself out there” thing is incredibly terrifying when you have to follow up Fred Wellman of all people
Rough prediction for the 2026 Democratic primary for Missouri's 4th Senate seat:
Home turf advantage aside, I think the coalitions will come down to Gina Mitten performing well in precincts where Amendment 3 outran Prop A in 2024, and Steve Butz where Prop A outran Amendment 3.
Home turf advantage aside, I think the coalitions will come down to Gina Mitten performing well in precincts where Amendment 3 outran Prop A in 2024, and Steve Butz where Prop A outran Amendment 3.
October 20, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Rough prediction for the 2026 Democratic primary for Missouri's 4th Senate seat:
Home turf advantage aside, I think the coalitions will come down to Gina Mitten performing well in precincts where Amendment 3 outran Prop A in 2024, and Steve Butz where Prop A outran Amendment 3.
Home turf advantage aside, I think the coalitions will come down to Gina Mitten performing well in precincts where Amendment 3 outran Prop A in 2024, and Steve Butz where Prop A outran Amendment 3.
one of the earliest pictures in my phone is of a graph I hand-drew on a whiteboard in high school to make a point about wealth inequality
haven’t changed a bit have I
haven’t changed a bit have I
October 20, 2025 at 7:29 AM
one of the earliest pictures in my phone is of a graph I hand-drew on a whiteboard in high school to make a point about wealth inequality
haven’t changed a bit have I
haven’t changed a bit have I
least bullshit initiative petition summary
October 19, 2025 at 10:32 PM
least bullshit initiative petition summary
2 months before the 2016 primary, Genise Montecillo dropped her re-election bid.
As the filing deadline had passed, a party committee of 2 people from each overlapping township, just 6 in total, voted on the Democratic nominee.
Doug Beck, an Affton school board director, was chosen by acclamation:
As the filing deadline had passed, a party committee of 2 people from each overlapping township, just 6 in total, voted on the Democratic nominee.
Doug Beck, an Affton school board director, was chosen by acclamation:
October 19, 2025 at 5:14 AM
2 months before the 2016 primary, Genise Montecillo dropped her re-election bid.
As the filing deadline had passed, a party committee of 2 people from each overlapping township, just 6 in total, voted on the Democratic nominee.
Doug Beck, an Affton school board director, was chosen by acclamation:
As the filing deadline had passed, a party committee of 2 people from each overlapping township, just 6 in total, voted on the Democratic nominee.
Doug Beck, an Affton school board director, was chosen by acclamation:
What if congressional districts were drawn exclusively with compactness in mind, without regard to race, partisanship, etc?
Well, it's an imperfect exercise, but I combined the most compact map for each state published to Dave's Redistricting into a single national map:
Well, it's an imperfect exercise, but I combined the most compact map for each state published to Dave's Redistricting into a single national map:
October 19, 2025 at 1:15 AM
What if congressional districts were drawn exclusively with compactness in mind, without regard to race, partisanship, etc?
Well, it's an imperfect exercise, but I combined the most compact map for each state published to Dave's Redistricting into a single national map:
Well, it's an imperfect exercise, but I combined the most compact map for each state published to Dave's Redistricting into a single national map:
a misdemeanor election offense for collecting signatures before the deadline? yeah best of luck in court.
honestly though I’d be willing to take a couple months in prison and lose my voting rights if it meant guaranteeing Missouri could have fair maps.
honestly though I’d be willing to take a couple months in prison and lose my voting rights if it meant guaranteeing Missouri could have fair maps.
October 16, 2025 at 6:59 AM
a misdemeanor election offense for collecting signatures before the deadline? yeah best of luck in court.
honestly though I’d be willing to take a couple months in prison and lose my voting rights if it meant guaranteeing Missouri could have fair maps.
honestly though I’d be willing to take a couple months in prison and lose my voting rights if it meant guaranteeing Missouri could have fair maps.
Harvey Milk’s successor on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors was Harry Britt, who later would be Nancy Pelosi’s primary rival in her first bid for Congress - she only won by 3.64%
imagine the butterflies, Representative Milk instead of Representative Pelosi
imagine the butterflies, Representative Milk instead of Representative Pelosi
October 14, 2025 at 4:51 AM
Harvey Milk’s successor on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors was Harry Britt, who later would be Nancy Pelosi’s primary rival in her first bid for Congress - she only won by 3.64%
imagine the butterflies, Representative Milk instead of Representative Pelosi
imagine the butterflies, Representative Milk instead of Representative Pelosi