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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 1d

Past a few of those the weekend before last - took the same route today, hoping to get a photo or two, and they were gone! Where is this one still holding out?

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 2d

Firstly, it’s highly implausible that an abandoned candidate would outpoll two others.

That said, secondly: the law is silent! There’s no provision for a candidate declining the position or resigning before inauguration. Fresh election is obvious solution but legally I don’t know how you’d force it

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 2d

If that were to happen, yes, the election would be annulled and the process begins afresh

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 2d

Per the Sunday Independent poll earlier: Humphreys would have taken 60% of Gavin’s first preferences, Connolly 24%, the remainder non-transferrable.

Reworking the poll accordingly:

Catherine Connolly 36
Heather Humphreys 32
Undecided 33

#aras25

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 2d

For the record: it is not possible, at this juncture, to officially withdraw or to remove a name from the #aras25 ballot paper.

Jim Gavin’s name will remain on the ballot for Friday 24th, merely with no campaign behind it.

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 2d

Largely ensconced in Government Buildings on the day before the budget

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 2d

I had a while schtick planned where there were only three colours of Smarties and 43 parallel counts

Anne-Marie @amflynn.bsky.social · 2d

Spare a thought for poor @gavreilly.com, sadly putting his smarties back in the box #Aras25

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 2d

🚨 Jim Gavin has withdrawn from the Presidential Election. #aras25 @virginmedianews.bsky.social

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 3d

If the same interpretation on ‘occupation’ were to apply, no incumbent/outgoing TD would ever be able to describe themselves as a public representative on a ballot paper, as there is no such thing as a TD come election time. Not prejudging the case but there’s years of differing interpretation

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 3d

It is, notwithstanding potential legal complaints, in line with decades of precedence

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 3d

…et jouer le foot avec mes amis.

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 3d

FWIW I don’t remember there being any commentary or reportage to the effect that HH was winning, from anyone

Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 3d

That is literally the first item of the analysis

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 3d

Wrote a Substack on this #aras25 poll:

Catherine Connolly is surviving her scrapes - yet Heather Humphreys is within the margin of error for winning

open.substack.com/pub/gavreill...

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 3d

Illustration of how much a knife-edge this is: if Humphreys were to do something to win over just a tenth of the undecideds, then a crude/over-rounded calculation makes it 50.3 to 49.7 for Connolly. Absorb another 1 point off Gavin’s vote and it’s a dead heat.

Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 3d

#aras25 poll: Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks
(Oct 2-3, MoE 2.6%)

Catherine Connolly 32 (+12 in four weeks)
Heather Humphreys 23 (+3)
Jim Gavin 15 (-5)
Undecided 31 (-8)

After Gavin’s elimination and transfers, Connolly would win 53-47

www.independent.ie/irish-news/p...

Poll: Catherine Connolly leads in race for presidency as support for Jim Gavin drops

Catherine Connolly is now leading the race for the Áras and is ahead of Fine Gael candidate Heather Humphreys by nine points, a new poll for the Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks today shows.

www.independent.ie

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 3d

#aras25 poll: Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks
(Oct 2-3, MoE 2.6%)

Catherine Connolly 32 (+12 in four weeks)
Heather Humphreys 23 (+3)
Jim Gavin 15 (-5)
Undecided 31 (-8)

After Gavin’s elimination and transfers, Connolly would win 53-47

www.independent.ie/irish-news/p...

Poll: Catherine Connolly leads in race for presidency as support for Jim Gavin drops

Catherine Connolly is now leading the race for the Áras and is ahead of Fine Gael candidate Heather Humphreys by nine points, a new poll for the Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks today shows.

www.independent.ie

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 3d

POLL: Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks
(Oct 2-3, MoE 2.3%)

Fine Gael 21
Sinn Féin 21 (+1 in four weeks)
Fianna Fáil 20 (-2)
Social Democrats 8 (+1)
Aontú 6 (+2)
IndIreland 4
Labour 4
PBP-Solidarity 3
Greens 1 (-1)
Inds/others 11 (-2)

www.independent.ie/irish-news/p...

Áras poll in print tomorrow

Poll: Sinn Féin neck and neck with Fine Gael as support for Fianna Fáil drops

Fine Gael and Sinn Féin are now neck and neck in terms of support from the public, as backing for Fianna Fáil has dropped by two points.

www.independent.ie

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 3d

Sanne Lammens CBE

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 4d

Box Office wasn’t open/taking calls so had to go Plan B! Sorted now though

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 4d

Ducking hell, that really ripper me odd

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 4d

With the assistance of autocorrect I signed off an email “Hanks, Banana” instead of “Thanks, Gavan”, in case you wondered how today was going

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 5d

I don’t, but the Ireland Thinks model would certainly be able to accommodate it

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 5d

From whom though? There’s an argument for some transfers from Gavin but she would need a disproportionate number of ostensibly “pro-govt” voters to side with her over Humphreys. CC would need her transfer friendliness to convert into outright no.1 votes

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 5d

Otherwise, it’s similar to the dynamic of 1990 with a 2-1 split in govt/oppn candidates was won by the side with 2 options.

Then, the opposition vote was split by Mary Robinson (Lab) and Austin Currie (FG) - Brian Lenihan (FF) got 44%, Robinson 39%; Currie’s 17% broke overwhelmingly in her favour.

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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 5d

This also depends on neither of the other two candidates falling to bits - 45% for Connolly isn’t much use if (say) Humphreys is also 45% and Gavin is only on 10%.

But given the pro-government vote will likely recycle between her opponents, Connolly needs clear blue water after a first count.

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