FACTSmatter
@gazansrterrorists.bsky.social
The S&P 500 stands at the most extreme level of valuations in history.
The scatter plot shows actual subsequent 12-year average annual S&P 500 nominal total returns
=the fact that the end of the trailing period and the beginning of the future period is a bubble extreme.
The scatter plot shows actual subsequent 12-year average annual S&P 500 nominal total returns
=the fact that the end of the trailing period and the beginning of the future period is a bubble extreme.
December 18, 2025 at 10:46 PM
The S&P 500 stands at the most extreme level of valuations in history.
The scatter plot shows actual subsequent 12-year average annual S&P 500 nominal total returns
=the fact that the end of the trailing period and the beginning of the future period is a bubble extreme.
The scatter plot shows actual subsequent 12-year average annual S&P 500 nominal total returns
=the fact that the end of the trailing period and the beginning of the future period is a bubble extreme.
"The S&P 500 stands at the most extreme level of valuations in history.
= the expectations of investors for long-term market returns are wildly misaligned with the returns implied by discounted cash flows."
= the expectations of investors for long-term market returns are wildly misaligned with the returns implied by discounted cash flows."
December 18, 2025 at 10:36 PM
"The S&P 500 stands at the most extreme level of valuations in history.
= the expectations of investors for long-term market returns are wildly misaligned with the returns implied by discounted cash flows."
= the expectations of investors for long-term market returns are wildly misaligned with the returns implied by discounted cash flows."
same foolish momentum morons taking huge losses in crypto crap, are now bidding up Tesla
= idiots who can't understand valuation
= the same idiots who can't understand the meaning of a
long-term chart
They're the tip of the spear of all the idiots who are buying into this stock market
= idiots who can't understand valuation
= the same idiots who can't understand the meaning of a
long-term chart
They're the tip of the spear of all the idiots who are buying into this stock market
December 18, 2025 at 10:17 PM
same foolish momentum morons taking huge losses in crypto crap, are now bidding up Tesla
= idiots who can't understand valuation
= the same idiots who can't understand the meaning of a
long-term chart
They're the tip of the spear of all the idiots who are buying into this stock market
= idiots who can't understand valuation
= the same idiots who can't understand the meaning of a
long-term chart
They're the tip of the spear of all the idiots who are buying into this stock market
The last two times that stock market wealth exceeded real estate wealth preceded dramatic declines in stocks that lasted for many years
December 17, 2025 at 6:13 PM
The last two times that stock market wealth exceeded real estate wealth preceded dramatic declines in stocks that lasted for many years
Nvidia stock needs to fill the Gap at around $118
= if you're thinking that you're some brilliant dip buyer, you're going to get taken to the cleaners =you're going to lose in a huge way cuz you don't know what you're doing
= if you're thinking that you're some brilliant dip buyer, you're going to get taken to the cleaners =you're going to lose in a huge way cuz you don't know what you're doing
December 17, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Nvidia stock needs to fill the Gap at around $118
= if you're thinking that you're some brilliant dip buyer, you're going to get taken to the cleaners =you're going to lose in a huge way cuz you don't know what you're doing
= if you're thinking that you're some brilliant dip buyer, you're going to get taken to the cleaners =you're going to lose in a huge way cuz you don't know what you're doing
The last 7 years or so have been a parabolic bubble in the stock market. = when it pops it's going DOWN to a sustainable uptrend, if not lower
= DOWN about 70% from the current price
= The top to bottom decline will be similar to the last bubble decline of about 75% to 80%
= DOWN about 70% from the current price
= The top to bottom decline will be similar to the last bubble decline of about 75% to 80%
December 15, 2025 at 9:35 PM
The last 7 years or so have been a parabolic bubble in the stock market. = when it pops it's going DOWN to a sustainable uptrend, if not lower
= DOWN about 70% from the current price
= The top to bottom decline will be similar to the last bubble decline of about 75% to 80%
= DOWN about 70% from the current price
= The top to bottom decline will be similar to the last bubble decline of about 75% to 80%
morons think they can hide in apple stock because they're not an AI play.
WRONG!
you're going to get totally destroyed over the next year in apple stock
you're foolish schmucks
who don't understand basic valuation
Warren Buffett knows more than you do
Follow what he is doing
= sell !
WRONG!
you're going to get totally destroyed over the next year in apple stock
you're foolish schmucks
who don't understand basic valuation
Warren Buffett knows more than you do
Follow what he is doing
= sell !
December 15, 2025 at 9:01 PM
morons think they can hide in apple stock because they're not an AI play.
WRONG!
you're going to get totally destroyed over the next year in apple stock
you're foolish schmucks
who don't understand basic valuation
Warren Buffett knows more than you do
Follow what he is doing
= sell !
WRONG!
you're going to get totally destroyed over the next year in apple stock
you're foolish schmucks
who don't understand basic valuation
Warren Buffett knows more than you do
Follow what he is doing
= sell !
hedge funds are loaded to the gills with T-Bonds, which is reflected in the dramatic rise in repurchase debt.
Cayman Island Hedge funds owns $1.5 TRILLION of T-bonds from "Basis Trade" leveraged 100 to 1
=The unwind will cause a spike in Bond yields
= Triggering an Epic Stock Market CRASH !!!
Cayman Island Hedge funds owns $1.5 TRILLION of T-bonds from "Basis Trade" leveraged 100 to 1
=The unwind will cause a spike in Bond yields
= Triggering an Epic Stock Market CRASH !!!
December 13, 2025 at 10:54 PM
hedge funds are loaded to the gills with T-Bonds, which is reflected in the dramatic rise in repurchase debt.
Cayman Island Hedge funds owns $1.5 TRILLION of T-bonds from "Basis Trade" leveraged 100 to 1
=The unwind will cause a spike in Bond yields
= Triggering an Epic Stock Market CRASH !!!
Cayman Island Hedge funds owns $1.5 TRILLION of T-bonds from "Basis Trade" leveraged 100 to 1
=The unwind will cause a spike in Bond yields
= Triggering an Epic Stock Market CRASH !!!
The reason these girls faces are blacked out is because they were minors or victims, or most likely both
GOP = Group Of Pedophiles
Trump is a convicted felon, con man, racist pedophile, who deserves to be in prison, not in our White House
GOP = Group Of Pedophiles
Trump is a convicted felon, con man, racist pedophile, who deserves to be in prison, not in our White House
December 12, 2025 at 11:57 PM
The reason these girls faces are blacked out is because they were minors or victims, or most likely both
GOP = Group Of Pedophiles
Trump is a convicted felon, con man, racist pedophile, who deserves to be in prison, not in our White House
GOP = Group Of Pedophiles
Trump is a convicted felon, con man, racist pedophile, who deserves to be in prison, not in our White House
Life is about perspective!
Perspective is what Warren Buffett has, and what most other investors lack.
You can barely see today's decline on this chart
But, to the myopic morons it's a huge decline.
=The morons will buy the dip yet again
But, this time it will be just the start of a huge CRASH
Perspective is what Warren Buffett has, and what most other investors lack.
You can barely see today's decline on this chart
But, to the myopic morons it's a huge decline.
=The morons will buy the dip yet again
But, this time it will be just the start of a huge CRASH
December 12, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Life is about perspective!
Perspective is what Warren Buffett has, and what most other investors lack.
You can barely see today's decline on this chart
But, to the myopic morons it's a huge decline.
=The morons will buy the dip yet again
But, this time it will be just the start of a huge CRASH
Perspective is what Warren Buffett has, and what most other investors lack.
You can barely see today's decline on this chart
But, to the myopic morons it's a huge decline.
=The morons will buy the dip yet again
But, this time it will be just the start of a huge CRASH
For all the fools who think the FED will save them from losing their money as the AI Ponzi scheme pops, & the stock market collapses during the Trump depression
= Fed funds rate went from 6% to 2% while QQQ dropped by 80%
Same type thing happened from 2007 to 2009 rates to zero while stocks crashed
= Fed funds rate went from 6% to 2% while QQQ dropped by 80%
Same type thing happened from 2007 to 2009 rates to zero while stocks crashed
December 12, 2025 at 2:05 AM
For all the fools who think the FED will save them from losing their money as the AI Ponzi scheme pops, & the stock market collapses during the Trump depression
= Fed funds rate went from 6% to 2% while QQQ dropped by 80%
Same type thing happened from 2007 to 2009 rates to zero while stocks crashed
= Fed funds rate went from 6% to 2% while QQQ dropped by 80%
Same type thing happened from 2007 to 2009 rates to zero while stocks crashed
Record low mutual fund cash combined with record high margin debt is a very dangerous combination that always ends the same way.
=Better buckle up... because you're going to see the biggest stock crash in your lifetime, coming soon to an account near you
=Better buckle up... because you're going to see the biggest stock crash in your lifetime, coming soon to an account near you
December 11, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Record low mutual fund cash combined with record high margin debt is a very dangerous combination that always ends the same way.
=Better buckle up... because you're going to see the biggest stock crash in your lifetime, coming soon to an account near you
=Better buckle up... because you're going to see the biggest stock crash in your lifetime, coming soon to an account near you
"anything that threatens corporate earnings, such as a recession, could represent the pin to prick this bubble in profits. And for investors clinging to those profits as justification for paying extreme multiples, that could be a serious problem." - Jesse Felder
December 11, 2025 at 3:37 PM
"anything that threatens corporate earnings, such as a recession, could represent the pin to prick this bubble in profits. And for investors clinging to those profits as justification for paying extreme multiples, that could be a serious problem." - Jesse Felder
Japan funded US spending for decades with BOJ money printing (The Carry Trade)
Japan's Debt to GDP exploded to 250%
But, in 2022 the YEN lost 45%
= Inflation!
NOW, Japan must defend their currency with higher rates to fight inflation.
= Japan must sell their US dollar holding
= US stock crash
Japan's Debt to GDP exploded to 250%
But, in 2022 the YEN lost 45%
= Inflation!
NOW, Japan must defend their currency with higher rates to fight inflation.
= Japan must sell their US dollar holding
= US stock crash
December 10, 2025 at 2:50 AM
Japan funded US spending for decades with BOJ money printing (The Carry Trade)
Japan's Debt to GDP exploded to 250%
But, in 2022 the YEN lost 45%
= Inflation!
NOW, Japan must defend their currency with higher rates to fight inflation.
= Japan must sell their US dollar holding
= US stock crash
Japan's Debt to GDP exploded to 250%
But, in 2022 the YEN lost 45%
= Inflation!
NOW, Japan must defend their currency with higher rates to fight inflation.
= Japan must sell their US dollar holding
= US stock crash
When you zoom out to gain perspective.
Perspective is what myopic momentum morons lack.
=You gain an advantage over them, & almost all other investors, who are too focused on the short term.
You see the reality of the situation
You see the most over bought & overvalued market in history
Perspective is what myopic momentum morons lack.
=You gain an advantage over them, & almost all other investors, who are too focused on the short term.
You see the reality of the situation
You see the most over bought & overvalued market in history
December 9, 2025 at 5:11 PM
When you zoom out to gain perspective.
Perspective is what myopic momentum morons lack.
=You gain an advantage over them, & almost all other investors, who are too focused on the short term.
You see the reality of the situation
You see the most over bought & overvalued market in history
Perspective is what myopic momentum morons lack.
=You gain an advantage over them, & almost all other investors, who are too focused on the short term.
You see the reality of the situation
You see the most over bought & overvalued market in history
The most insane tech stock bubble in history is going to pop very soon, because AI is the most overhyped business folly in history
December 9, 2025 at 2:14 PM
The most insane tech stock bubble in history is going to pop very soon, because AI is the most overhyped business folly in history
This is the 10-year treasury bond futures contract that is breaking down from its trend line and that is very bad for the stock market.
Because lower rates has been a driving factor in the rise in the stock market
= As the AI mania breaks and inflation is still a problem
= Stock market crash
Because lower rates has been a driving factor in the rise in the stock market
= As the AI mania breaks and inflation is still a problem
= Stock market crash
December 8, 2025 at 4:54 PM
This is the 10-year treasury bond futures contract that is breaking down from its trend line and that is very bad for the stock market.
Because lower rates has been a driving factor in the rise in the stock market
= As the AI mania breaks and inflation is still a problem
= Stock market crash
Because lower rates has been a driving factor in the rise in the stock market
= As the AI mania breaks and inflation is still a problem
= Stock market crash
numerous companies are far ahead of Tesla in robots.
Robots are not a core competency of Tesla.
Idiot Wall Street ANALysts and moronic investors are delusional Take a look at that piece of garbage cybertruck.
Watch videos about how bad Tesla full self driving is
Tesla is worth about $30/shr
Robots are not a core competency of Tesla.
Idiot Wall Street ANALysts and moronic investors are delusional Take a look at that piece of garbage cybertruck.
Watch videos about how bad Tesla full self driving is
Tesla is worth about $30/shr
December 5, 2025 at 1:48 AM
numerous companies are far ahead of Tesla in robots.
Robots are not a core competency of Tesla.
Idiot Wall Street ANALysts and moronic investors are delusional Take a look at that piece of garbage cybertruck.
Watch videos about how bad Tesla full self driving is
Tesla is worth about $30/shr
Robots are not a core competency of Tesla.
Idiot Wall Street ANALysts and moronic investors are delusional Take a look at that piece of garbage cybertruck.
Watch videos about how bad Tesla full self driving is
Tesla is worth about $30/shr
You can see the same pattern on this hourly chart after a huge straight up Spike on the NASDAQ 100.
After the straight up spike, there are a few days of distribution/shorting by the professional investors. While the retail idiots load up.
Then, the index crashes back down again.
After the straight up spike, there are a few days of distribution/shorting by the professional investors. While the retail idiots load up.
Then, the index crashes back down again.
December 4, 2025 at 5:56 PM
You can see the same pattern on this hourly chart after a huge straight up Spike on the NASDAQ 100.
After the straight up spike, there are a few days of distribution/shorting by the professional investors. While the retail idiots load up.
Then, the index crashes back down again.
After the straight up spike, there are a few days of distribution/shorting by the professional investors. While the retail idiots load up.
Then, the index crashes back down again.
There is a clear correlation between the yen to dollar ratio & the s&p 500
With the FED ready to lower rates again & the BOJ signaling a rate rise = stronger yen
= downward pressure on the s&p 500
& If the US 10 year yield spikes again
= Stock crash!!!
With the FED ready to lower rates again & the BOJ signaling a rate rise = stronger yen
= downward pressure on the s&p 500
& If the US 10 year yield spikes again
= Stock crash!!!
December 4, 2025 at 5:46 PM
There is a clear correlation between the yen to dollar ratio & the s&p 500
With the FED ready to lower rates again & the BOJ signaling a rate rise = stronger yen
= downward pressure on the s&p 500
& If the US 10 year yield spikes again
= Stock crash!!!
With the FED ready to lower rates again & the BOJ signaling a rate rise = stronger yen
= downward pressure on the s&p 500
& If the US 10 year yield spikes again
= Stock crash!!!
Since mid Sept. the FED cut rates .5% & will cut another .25% next week BUT, the US 10-year yield is up a little bit over that period of time
The Japanese Central Bank is ready to raise rates which could further unwind the carry trade and cause US 10-yr yields to spike
= Stock crash
The Japanese Central Bank is ready to raise rates which could further unwind the carry trade and cause US 10-yr yields to spike
= Stock crash
December 4, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Since mid Sept. the FED cut rates .5% & will cut another .25% next week BUT, the US 10-year yield is up a little bit over that period of time
The Japanese Central Bank is ready to raise rates which could further unwind the carry trade and cause US 10-yr yields to spike
= Stock crash
The Japanese Central Bank is ready to raise rates which could further unwind the carry trade and cause US 10-yr yields to spike
= Stock crash
Another manic straight up. Got to get in fomo rally but it's a fake out. Things are getting worse fast and the AI build out is the biggest folly in history. It is a massive waste of money
December 2, 2025 at 6:32 PM
Another manic straight up. Got to get in fomo rally but it's a fake out. Things are getting worse fast and the AI build out is the biggest folly in history. It is a massive waste of money
"dispersion within the index recently hit a multi-decade extreme. Previous extremes, in 2007 and 2018, served as well-timed warnings of increasing volatility to come" - Jesse Felder
December 2, 2025 at 1:32 AM
"dispersion within the index recently hit a multi-decade extreme. Previous extremes, in 2007 and 2018, served as well-timed warnings of increasing volatility to come" - Jesse Felder
For the last month the straight up advances have not ended well for the greater fools.
BTW, The FED lowering interest rates did not stop the NASDAQ 100 from plummeting 80% during the last tech bubble. And neither did the FED lowering interest rates to zero in 2008 protect investors from big losses
BTW, The FED lowering interest rates did not stop the NASDAQ 100 from plummeting 80% during the last tech bubble. And neither did the FED lowering interest rates to zero in 2008 protect investors from big losses
November 28, 2025 at 5:58 PM
For the last month the straight up advances have not ended well for the greater fools.
BTW, The FED lowering interest rates did not stop the NASDAQ 100 from plummeting 80% during the last tech bubble. And neither did the FED lowering interest rates to zero in 2008 protect investors from big losses
BTW, The FED lowering interest rates did not stop the NASDAQ 100 from plummeting 80% during the last tech bubble. And neither did the FED lowering interest rates to zero in 2008 protect investors from big losses
Trump is a piece shit
He thinks he can mistreat people
he especially mistreats women and minorities. He's a douchebag
He's a criminal.
He's a con man.
He's a liar.
He's a racist who should be rotting in prison.
Lock him up
Lock him up
Lock him up
He thinks he can mistreat people
he especially mistreats women and minorities. He's a douchebag
He's a criminal.
He's a con man.
He's a liar.
He's a racist who should be rotting in prison.
Lock him up
Lock him up
Lock him up
November 26, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Trump is a piece shit
He thinks he can mistreat people
he especially mistreats women and minorities. He's a douchebag
He's a criminal.
He's a con man.
He's a liar.
He's a racist who should be rotting in prison.
Lock him up
Lock him up
Lock him up
He thinks he can mistreat people
he especially mistreats women and minorities. He's a douchebag
He's a criminal.
He's a con man.
He's a liar.
He's a racist who should be rotting in prison.
Lock him up
Lock him up
Lock him up