gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi
@gbaldi.bsky.social
870 followers 1.2K following 330 posts
Economist
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 11h
Challenging times for central banks! A good overview with a lot of food for thought by Sam Fleming, Claire Jones and Olaf Storbeck in the Financial Times.

"The massive bond purchases are being unwound at a time of fierce political criticism of the monetary authorities."

www.ft.com/content/055f...
The populist shadow hanging over central banks and QE
The massive bond purchases are being unwound at a time of fierce political criticism of the monetary authorities. The controversy could limit options in future crises
www.ft.com
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 2d
Indeed, Europeans need to learn to love risk. Although I do not fully agree with Martin Sandbu in his opinion piece, his basic argument is certainly right, in my opinion.

www.ft.com/content/1100...
Europeans need to learn to love risk
A culture of financial caution stymies innovation and prevents the continent from competing with the US and China
www.ft.com
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 8d
A very interesting analysis of Argentina's current problems by Brad Setser and Stephen Paduano.

And the ending is great...

www.ft.com/content/5f4b...
Other people’s money, and the problem with Mileism
The US Treasury needs to get Argentina on a better policy path before it blows through the Exchange Stabilization Fund
www.ft.com
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 8d
Heute ist unser DIW-Konjunkturbarometer erschienen. Der Barometerwert erhöht sich langsam, aber stetig.

Das Konjunkturbarometer des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) legt im September deutlich zu und liegt nun bei 96,3 Punkten, nach 92 Punkten im August.
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 10d
For anyone interested in world trade, I highly recommend this excellent text by Alan Wm. Wolff (Peterson Institute for International Economics).

"The likely future is a combination of most nations persevering with pragmatism and grit under the existing trading system"

www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
The international progressives: A source of hope for the world trading system
Leave it to the Swiss to find the only effective response to President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Swatch, their famous eponymous watch company, issued a special commemorative watch with the three an...
www.piie.com
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 19d
While I only partly agree with The Economist, this article certainly has a point!

"Would an all-out trade war be better? Donald Trump has so far avoided retaliation, which might carry a cost of its own"

www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Would an all-out trade war be better?
Donald Trump has so far avoided retaliation, which might carry a cost of its own
www.economist.com
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 23d
Many people are unaware of this – not only abroad, but, surprisingly, also in Switzerland!

The SNB "has quietly become one of the world’s biggest tech investors, ...Its stake in Apple alone is worth nearly $10bn and its stake in Nvidia is more than $11bn."

www.ft.com/content/60a9...
Switzerland’s US tech ‘whale’
Swiss National Bank has more than $42bn invested in Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia and Meta
www.ft.com
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 23d
We are looking forward to this webinar!

Opportunities and challenges of better interactions between military and civilian R&D

Dominique Foray (Prof EPFL, Chair of Economics and Management of Innovation; Swiss Science Council)

⏲️ Sep 29, 12.00-13.00 CEST

REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/eNP82ZTuwV
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Reposted by Guido Baldi
gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 23d
I am looking forward to this webinar with Spyros Andreopoulos, whom I appreciate a lot!

Central Banks and the End of Stability (September 17, 12:00 – 13:00 CEST) with Spyros Andreopoulos (Thin Ice Macroeconomics, Ex-ECB, BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley).

REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/WZhvdLR7Ls
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 23d
I am looking forward to this webinar with Spyros Andreopoulos, whom I appreciate a lot!

Central Banks and the End of Stability (September 17, 12:00 – 13:00 CEST) with Spyros Andreopoulos (Thin Ice Macroeconomics, Ex-ECB, BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley).

REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/WZhvdLR7Ls
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 25d
This does not look sustainable!

"France and the UK have increased public spending on over-65s more steeply than most other countries"

"France and Britain are in thrall to pensioners" by John Burn-Murdoch:

www.ft.com/content/d419...
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 27d
Welcome back, inflation?

In the United States, inflation in August was somewhat higher than most expected (0.4%).

One should always be careful. But data for August reinforced the view that the US might have entered an episode with stagflationary characteristics.

www.bls.gov/news.release...
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 28d
Interesting developments in Switzerland. The SNB starts to publish a summary of its monetary policy meetings. It will be interesting to observe how extensive these summaries are and whether/how these summaries will be discussed in public and among market participants.

www.snb.ch/en/publicati...
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 8
Wir freuen uns auf dieses Webinar mit Dr. Adhurim Haxhimusa von der Fachhochschule Graubünden.

Webinar: Das Swiss REco Dashboard: Regionalwirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Echtzeit messen

⏲️ 25. September, 12:00 – 13:00 Uhr

💻 Online

ANMELDUNG: forms.office.com/r/T6yAmpLR59
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 5
www.bls.gov/news.release...
gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 5
Die Arbeitslosigkeit hat sich leicht erhöht. Mit 4,3 Prozent ist sie aber immer noch niedrig.

Eine Zinssenkung im September dürfte so gut wie sicher sein. Die Rufe nach weiteren Zinssenkungen dürften mit dem heutigen Bericht wohl Auftrieb erhalten - zumindest bis zum nächsten Inflationsbericht!
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Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 5
Der US-Arbeitsmarkt sendet wenig überraschend weitere enttäuschende Signale aus. Wie das BLS heute berichtet, wurden im August nur 22'000 neue Jobs geschaffen. Im Juni kam es (abwärtsrevidiert) sogar zu einem Verlust an Stellen und im Juli nur zu 79'000 neuen Stellen (leicht aufwärtsrevidiert).
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 5
Deutsche Wirtschaft: Der Aufschwung ist aufgeschoben, aber hoffentlich nicht aufgehoben.

Alle Institute gehen für das laufende Jahr nur von einem minimalen Wachstum der Wirtschaftsleistung aus.

Für das Jahr 2026 gibt es Hoffnung auf einen Aufschwung mit Prognosen zwischen 0,8 und 1,7 Prozent.
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 3
For anyone interested in the US economy, I highly recommend this analysis by the Budget Lab at Yale: "Short-Run Effects of 2025 Tariffs So Far"

In addition to interesting numbers, the analysis is well-written with a lot of nuances.

budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sho...
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 3
Great opinion piece by Ngaire Woods (Oxford)!

"The ancient Greeks recognized that real learning came not from entertaining, impressing, or catering to students, but from challenging them to question their beliefs."

www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a...
How to Use AI Without Losing Our Minds
Ngaire Woods explains how to maintain our cognitive abilities in a world of instant answers and constant distractions.
www.project-syndicate.org
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 3
Was macht die Schweiz so innovativ?

Bin gespannt auf unser Webinar morgen mit Lukas Schmid von Avenir Suisse, der sich intensiv mit der Innovationslandschaft Schweiz beschäftigt.

⏲️ 4. September, 12:00 – 13:00 Uhr

💻 Online, Meetinglink wird zugeschickt

ANMELDUNG: forms.office.com/r/ApAYJndVxe
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Aug 30
It's worth reading this article, 'The Weaponized World Economy,' in Foreign Affairs carefully.

"The Weaponized World Economy: Surviving the New Age of Economic Coercion" by Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman.

www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The Weaponized World Economy
When Washington announced a “framework deal” with China in June, it marked a silent shifting of gears in the global political economy. This was not the beginning of U.S. President Donald Trump’s imagi...
www.foreignaffairs.com
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Aug 27
Unser DIW-Konjunkturbarometer ist minimal zurückgegangen.

„Die Lage der deutschen Wirtschaft bleibt vorerst durchzogen, auch weil die Weltwirtschaft schwächelt und die internationalen Handelsbeziehungen unberechenbar geworden sind“, resümiert Konjunkturexperte Guido Baldi.
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Aug 26
One can watch how the independence of the Fed is slowly eroding. Highly worrying. Jason Furman is right!

What the Federal Reserve, Supreme Court and Senate Need to Do After Lisa Cook’s Firing

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/o...
Opinion | What the Federal Reserve, Supreme Court and Senate Need to Do After Lisa Cook’s Firing
www.nytimes.com
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gbaldi.bsky.social
Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Aug 26
Das heutige Produktivitätshäppchen: Wertschöpfung und Industrieproduktion – Strukturwandel schreitet voran

open.substack.com/pub/guidobal...
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