Strength In Numbers
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Independent, data-driven analysis of politics, public opinion, and elections. A place for thinking smarter with data.
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Backlash to Trump has been more severe in his second term • Gallup's latest data shows Republican party identification down 6 points in Trump's second term — three times the decline in 2017
Backlash to Trump has been more severe in his second term
Gallup's latest data shows Republican party identification down 6 points in Trump's second term — three times the decline in 2017
www.gelliottmorris.com
January 16, 2026 at 1:26 PM
Backlash to Trump has been more severe in his second term • Gallup's latest data shows Republican party identification down 6 points in Trump's second term — three times the decline in 2017
Trump has made ICE a 70-30 issue — for Democrats • By using brutal force in public, ICE has given Democrats a chance to change how voters think about immigration policy. Will they take it?
Trump has made ICE a 70-30 issue — for Democrats
By using brutal force in public, ICE has given Democrats a chance to change how voters think about immigration policy. Will they take it?
www.gelliottmorris.com
January 15, 2026 at 1:28 PM
Trump has made ICE a 70-30 issue — for Democrats • By using brutal force in public, ICE has given Democrats a chance to change how voters think about immigration policy. Will they take it?
All the poll questions readers suggested we ask in 2026 • The final list from our community question-writing exercise in December
All the poll questions readers suggested we ask in 2026
The final list from our community question-writing exercise in December
www.gelliottmorris.com
January 14, 2026 at 1:28 PM
All the poll questions readers suggested we ask in 2026 • The final list from our community question-writing exercise in December
How early is too early to look at midterm polls? • Early generic ballot polls are directionally useful, but the party out of power historically gains ground between now and November
How early is too early to look at midterm polls?
Early generic ballot polls are directionally useful, but the party out of power historically gains ground between now and November
www.gelliottmorris.com
January 13, 2026 at 1:27 PM
How early is too early to look at midterm polls? • Early generic ballot polls are directionally useful, but the party out of power historically gains ground between now and November
Venezuela polling update: Republicans fall in line on comparatively unpopular action • Your weekly political data roundup for January 11, 2026.
Venezuela polling update: Republicans fall in line on comparatively unpopular action
Your weekly political data roundup for January 11, 2026.
www.gelliottmorris.com
January 11, 2026 at 1:27 PM
Venezuela polling update: Republicans fall in line on comparatively unpopular action • Your weekly political data roundup for January 11, 2026.
Support for abolishing ICE hits a a new high • Americans have turned sharply against Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and say it too often resorts to violence
Support for abolishing ICE hits a a new high
Americans have turned sharply against Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and say it too often resorts to violence
www.gelliottmorris.com
January 9, 2026 at 1:27 PM
Support for abolishing ICE hits a a new high • Americans have turned sharply against Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and say it too often resorts to violence
Pardon my coup • Accurate political journalism requires a bias toward democracy
Pardon my coup
Accurate political journalism requires a bias toward democracy
www.gelliottmorris.com
January 7, 2026 at 4:27 AM
Pardon my coup • Accurate political journalism requires a bias toward democracy
Midterms are a backlash, not a referendum • The best predictor of historical midterm election outcomes is which party is in power, not its performance
Midterms are a backlash, not a referendum
The best predictor of historical midterm election outcomes is which party is in power, not its performance
www.gelliottmorris.com
January 6, 2026 at 1:28 PM
Midterms are a backlash, not a referendum • The best predictor of historical midterm election outcomes is which party is in power, not its performance
Americans do not want war with Venezuela • Military intervention in the country is even more unpopular than Trump’s tariffs and health care cuts
Americans do not want war with Venezuela
Military intervention in the country is even more unpopular than Trump’s tariffs and health care cuts
www.gelliottmorris.com
January 4, 2026 at 1:28 PM
Americans do not want war with Venezuela • Military intervention in the country is even more unpopular than Trump’s tariffs and health care cuts
What voters in every state think about Trump and prices • Using MRP on our 2025 polling, Trump’s overall approval is underwater in 39 states— and his inflation numbers are negative in 49
What voters in every state think about Trump and prices
Using MRP on our 2025 polling, Trump’s overall approval is underwater in 39 states— and his inflation numbers are negative in 49
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 29, 2025 at 1:24 PM
What voters in every state think about Trump and prices • Using MRP on our 2025 polling, Trump’s overall approval is underwater in 39 states— and his inflation numbers are negative in 49
10 new charts that show how Americans feel about prices and health care • Plus: take the 2025 reader survey to steer coverage for the next year! Your weekly political data roundup for December 21, 2025.
10 new charts that show how Americans feel about prices and health care
Plus: take the 2025 reader survey to steer coverage for the next year! Your weekly political data roundup for December 21, 2025.
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 21, 2025 at 1:26 PM
10 new charts that show how Americans feel about prices and health care • Plus: take the 2025 reader survey to steer coverage for the next year! Your weekly political data roundup for December 21, 2025.
Voters blame Trump for their economic woes • In a televised speech, Trump tried to turn around his affordability numbers by drawing attention to policies voters disapprove of
Voters blame Trump for their economic woes
In a televised speech, Trump tried to turn around his affordability numbers by drawing attention to policies voters disapprove of
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 19, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Voters blame Trump for their economic woes • In a televised speech, Trump tried to turn around his affordability numbers by drawing attention to policies voters disapprove of
Add your own questions to our 2026 election polls! • Strength In Numbers is planning to go big on interactive polling and modeling in 2026. Help us decide what questions to track on a monthly basis
Add your own questions to our 2026 election polls!
Strength In Numbers is planning to go big on interactive polling and modeling in 2026. Help us decide what questions to track on a monthly basis
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 18, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Add your own questions to our 2026 election polls! • Strength In Numbers is planning to go big on interactive polling and modeling in 2026. Help us decide what questions to track on a monthly basis
The high cost of rolling over on immigration • What Matt Yglesias, Hakeem Jeffries, and Keir Starmer got wrong about the politics of immigration
The high cost of rolling over on immigration
What Matt Yglesias, Hakeem Jeffries, and Keir Starmer got wrong about the politics of immigration
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 16, 2025 at 1:28 PM
The high cost of rolling over on immigration • What Matt Yglesias, Hakeem Jeffries, and Keir Starmer got wrong about the politics of immigration
The politics of young people is the politics of instability • Plus: gerrymandering, 2026, news diets, and more on affordability. Your weekly political data roundup for December 14, 2025
The politics of young people is the politics of instability
Plus: gerrymandering, 2026, news diets, and more on affordability. Your weekly political data roundup for December 14, 2025
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 14, 2025 at 4:27 PM
The politics of young people is the politics of instability • Plus: gerrymandering, 2026, news diets, and more on affordability. Your weekly political data roundup for December 14, 2025
Affordability voters favor Democrats over Republicans for 2026 House midterms • Voters who say the economy or inflation are their #1 issue are D+12 in the generic ballot, and give Trump a net job approval rating of -20
Affordability voters favor Democrats over Republicans for 2026 House midterms
Voters who say the economy or inflation are their #1 issue are D+12 in the generic ballot, and give Trump a net job approval rating of -20
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 12, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Affordability voters favor Democrats over Republicans for 2026 House midterms • Voters who say the economy or inflation are their #1 issue are D+12 in the generic ballot, and give Trump a net job approval rating of -20
How cable news fueled the culture war and broke U.S. politics • News organizations, and not just Fox News, focus on inflammatory stories, polarizing voters and tilting political agendas to the right
How cable news fueled the culture war and broke U.S. politics
News organizations, and not just Fox News, focus on inflammatory stories, polarizing voters and tilting political agendas to the right
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 9, 2025 at 4:26 PM
How cable news fueled the culture war and broke U.S. politics • News organizations, and not just Fox News, focus on inflammatory stories, polarizing voters and tilting political agendas to the right
New Republican voters are much less MAGA. That will hurt the party in 2026. • Your weekly political data roundup for December 7, 2025
New Republican voters are much less MAGA. That will hurt the party in 2026.
Your weekly political data roundup for December 7, 2025
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 7, 2025 at 1:30 PM
New Republican voters are much less MAGA. That will hurt the party in 2026. • Your weekly political data roundup for December 7, 2025
How the floor could fall out for Trump • 43% of Republicans say he isn't keeping his promises on the economy
How the floor could fall out for Trump
43% of Republicans say he isn't keeping his promises on the economy
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 5, 2025 at 1:28 PM
How the floor could fall out for Trump • 43% of Republicans say he isn't keeping his promises on the economy
What the special election in Tennessee's Seventh District means for the 2026 midterms • Republicans held a Trump +22 seat — but by only 9 points. A swing half as large would give Democrats the U.S. House in 2026, and put the Senate clearly in play
What the special election in Tennessee's Seventh District means for the 2026 midterms
Republicans held a Trump +22 seat — but by only 9 points. A swing half as large would give Democrats the U.S. House in 2026, and put the Senate clearly in play
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 3, 2025 at 4:29 AM
What the special election in Tennessee's Seventh District means for the 2026 midterms • Republicans held a Trump +22 seat — but by only 9 points. A swing half as large would give Democrats the U.S. House in 2026, and put the Senate clearly in play
How can we be sure changes in polls reflect real changes in opinion? • A technical response to a comment on last Friday's chart about Democrats' generic ballot polling
How can we be sure changes in polls reflect real changes in opinion?
A technical response to a comment on last Friday's chart about Democrats' generic ballot polling
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 28, 2025 at 1:28 PM
How can we be sure changes in polls reflect real changes in opinion? • A technical response to a comment on last Friday's chart about Democrats' generic ballot polling
What if America used ranked-choice voting for presidential primaries? • Plus: an update on non-voters; the secret sauce behind my polling models; and updating my list of political biases and how I account for them. This is the Strength In Numbers November 2025 Q&A.
What if America used ranked-choice voting for presidential primaries?
Plus: an update on non-voters; the secret sauce behind my polling models; and updating my list of political biases and how I account for them. This is the Strength In Numbers November 2025 Q&A.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 25, 2025 at 1:30 PM
What if America used ranked-choice voting for presidential primaries? • Plus: an update on non-voters; the secret sauce behind my polling models; and updating my list of political biases and how I account for them. This is the Strength In Numbers November 2025 Q&A.
Two new polls show learning about Trump's policies moves public opinion toward Democrats • Your weekly political data roundup for November 13, 2025
Two new polls show learning about Trump's policies moves public opinion toward Democrats
Your weekly political data roundup for November 13, 2025
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 23, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Two new polls show learning about Trump's policies moves public opinion toward Democrats • Your weekly political data roundup for November 13, 2025
Democrats expand lead in U.S. House polls this week • Recent polls have shown a big shift toward the Democrats in the House generic ballot. If historical patterns of out-party gains continue in 2026, Democrats could see a larger "blue wave" than in 2018.
Democrats expand lead in U.S. House polls this week
Recent polls have shown a big shift toward the Democrats in the House generic ballot. If historical patterns of out-party gains continue in 2026, Democrats could see a larger "blue wave" than in 2018.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Democrats expand lead in U.S. House polls this week • Recent polls have shown a big shift toward the Democrats in the House generic ballot. If historical patterns of out-party gains continue in 2026, Democrats could see a larger "blue wave" than in 2018.
The hidden axis: the left-right spectrum has a non-ideology problem • Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.
The hidden axis: the left-right spectrum has a non-ideology problem
Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 20, 2025 at 5:32 PM
The hidden axis: the left-right spectrum has a non-ideology problem • Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.