The Geopolis Chronicles
@geopolischronicles.substack.com
🌍 Writing about global politics, power shifts, and how world events shape our future. From trade wars to tech battles, breaking down complex geopolitics into clear insights.
New posts weekly. Join the conversation: https://geopolischronicles.substack.com/
New posts weekly. Join the conversation: https://geopolischronicles.substack.com/
Fuller analysis breaks down the strategic calculations, Iran's options, and what happens next. open.substack.com/pub/geopolis... (7/7)
Trump and Iran: Calculations and Consequences
An Assessment of Washington's Action and Tehran's Strategic Dilemma
open.substack.com
June 22, 2025 at 11:29 PM
Fuller analysis breaks down the strategic calculations, Iran's options, and what happens next. open.substack.com/pub/geopolis... (7/7)
⚠️ The real risk: Both sides operating with incomplete intel on each other's red lines. Next 72 hours critical. Miscalculation could trigger a broader regional war or a breakthrough moment. (6/7)
June 22, 2025 at 11:02 PM
⚠️ The real risk: Both sides operating with incomplete intel on each other's red lines. Next 72 hours critical. Miscalculation could trigger a broader regional war or a breakthrough moment. (6/7)
🔄 The diplomatic gambit: Trump still believes military pressure can force the nuclear deal that's eluded Washington for decades. Back-channels are active. But will Tehran see this as negotiation or betrayal? (5/7)
June 22, 2025 at 11:00 PM
🔄 The diplomatic gambit: Trump still believes military pressure can force the nuclear deal that's eluded Washington for decades. Back-channels are active. But will Tehran see this as negotiation or betrayal? (5/7)
🌍 Regional ripple effects: Gulf states nervous about spillover. Iran's 'Axis of Resistance' has already been degraded since Oct 2023. Beijing & Moscow watching to see if the US will 'aggressively advance agenda' globally. (4/7)
June 22, 2025 at 10:59 PM
🌍 Regional ripple effects: Gulf states nervous about spillover. Iran's 'Axis of Resistance' has already been degraded since Oct 2023. Beijing & Moscow watching to see if the US will 'aggressively advance agenda' globally. (4/7)
⚖️ Iran's impossible choice: Launch symbolic retaliation to save face OR actually escalate and risk regime survival. Tehran's proxies are weakened, and the economy is strained. Limited options. (3/7)
June 22, 2025 at 10:58 PM
⚖️ Iran's impossible choice: Launch symbolic retaliation to save face OR actually escalate and risk regime survival. Tehran's proxies are weakened, and the economy is strained. Limited options. (3/7)
🎯 The strategic logic: Trump chose 'limited' strikes on Fordow, Natanz & Isfahan, not the broader campaign Netanyahu wanted. This was surgical pressure, not regime change. Classic Trump: high-profile but constrained. (2/7)
June 22, 2025 at 10:55 PM
🎯 The strategic logic: Trump chose 'limited' strikes on Fordow, Natanz & Isfahan, not the broader campaign Netanyahu wanted. This was surgical pressure, not regime change. Classic Trump: high-profile but constrained. (2/7)