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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 1d

I did not see Macron asking Lecornu to try and form another government as a 4th option — but here we are. On Wednesday, Lecornu will inform Macron whether this has been possible…

Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 2d

What happens next? Three options for Macron:
1) names another PM (preferably, for longevity reasons, not from his camp)
2) calls snap elections
3) resigns.

1st or 2nd more likely than 3rd, though resignation rumours continue to swirl.

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 2d

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 2d

What France's collapse means for EU trade policy - my quick take: www.politico.eu/article/fran...

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigns — live updates

France’s fifth government in three years resigns just 12 hours after being appointed.

www.politico.eu

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 2d

Yes... Not saying he should name RN PM. But interesting to think of what wd happen if he did.

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 2d

2) They can't get anything through Parliament. In which case, they blame other parties from not cooperating (and helpfully forget their abstentions/opposition past 2 yrs)
3) If Macron fails to name a RN PM, they will say he's ignoring will of majority.

All good for their 2027 presidential bid.

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 2d

An interesting thought exercise is whether Macron names someone from far-right Rassemblement National as PM - I can see 2 outcomes, all beneficial to them/2027 presidential election:
1) They do a good job (refraining from passing any "extreme" policies to reassure French electorate).

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 2d

What happens next? Three options for Macron:
1) names another PM (preferably, for longevity reasons, not from his camp)
2) calls snap elections
3) resigns.

1st or 2nd more likely than 3rd, though resignation rumours continue to swirl.

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 2d

French PM resigns & no-one shd be surprised. Majority of MPs saw his appointment as lacking legitimacy (Macron party is far from biggest in parliament). Lecornu took several weeks to appoint a government - which, upon announcement last night, was almost identical to last. Huge anger in response.

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 12d

I absolutely agree. There is tendency to rely on the "if only voters understood what we were actually saying, then.." -- and it's too easy. But I also genuinely think they tend to be worse communicators if you compare them to other parties. So bad comms doesn't excuse everything, but..

Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 12d

Not all ideas are good, for sure.

Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 12d

Interesting: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/26/w...

My sense is that progressive parties don't necessarily lack ideas (though some do) -- but that they tend to be quite (/really) bad at communicating those ideas.

As Right-Wing Populism Rises, Progressives Meet to Share Tactics in London

www.nytimes.com

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 12d

This also means that we should be paying very close attention to next week’s informal European Council in Copenhagen.

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 12d

The German Chancellor calls on Europeans to massively step up their support to Ukraine, sets out how this can be done (new common borrowing) & why it matters to do this now. The German leadership we’ve been long been looking for: www.ft.com/content/3aac...

A new financial impetus for peace in Ukraine

We need the mobilisation of resources on a scale that will secure Kyiv’s military resilience

www.ft.com

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 14d

And former FCDO Europe director during Brexit. Caroline knows the EU v well

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 14d

Agree…

Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 14d

And of course, US not doing anything more. That has not changed either.

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 14d

A lot of insistence of Europeans doing the buying, and supporting. But change in rhetoric (for now) nonetheless

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 14d

🤯

Alexandra Brzozowski @alexowski.bsky.social · 14d

#Trump’s rhetoric has changed.

“Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of #Ukraine back in its original form.”

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 14d

Ridiculous claim — and even more ridiculous that Sadiq Khan continues to be such a point of focus for President Trump.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 14d

Trump to the UN: "I have to say, I look at London where you have a terrible mayor -- terrible terrible mayor -- and it's been so changed, so changed. Now they want to go to Sharia Law ... both their immigration and their suicidal energy ideas will be the death of Western Europe."

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 18d

5. A diplomatic success, but uncertain future: Starmer's position at home is fragile, and will face the first big test in May 2026 local elections. While the visit kept UK-US disagreements quiet, they have not gone away. END.

Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 18d

4. The stakes were also domestic: with far-right Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage, Trump’s friend, surging in the polls, Starmer needed to prove he could manage Washington. His careful diplomacy has won credit -- and crucially, new US investment hasn't derailed delicate UK-EU talks.

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 18d

3. The risks were real: Trump’s approval in UK stands at just 16%. Many are also worried US foreign policy & developments inside the United States. At the same time, UK-US ties run deep, and US still plays a vital role in European security. A confrontational relationship is not in UK's interest.

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 18d

2. Overall, a success: US has committed £150 billion in investments. UK and US have agreed to strengthen nuclear cooperation. Key differences were largely kept in the background. If the UK government was disappointed not to secure reduced tariffs on steel exports, it did not show.

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 18d

1. Not political, but still political: states visits are royal occasions, but they carry political weight. This one had 3 aims: 1) highlight the depth of the US-UK ties, 2) deepen trade, and 3) downplay differences. Trump remains the only elected leader to have received two UK state visits.

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Georgina Wright @georginaewright.bsky.social · 18d

What to think of Trump's 2nd state visit? In my latest piece for
@gmfus.bsky.social, I argue that it was a success -- but that doesn't mean the UK and US relationship will always be smooth. Thread: www.gmfus.org/news/calcula...

A Calculated Display

www.gmfus.org

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