Grimm Global Macro Advisory
@ggma.bsky.social
More than 25 years of experience on the buy/sell-side in #FX,#FI, #Macro & #Quant | PhD in #FX Forecasting with #Neural #Nets | Posts are in my own capacity.
🧵 MARKET OPEN - January 22, 2026
📈 Risk sentiment improves after Trump announces Greenland deal framework—no new tariffs imposed
🇦🇺 Australia unemployment drops to 4.1% in December (unexpected)
🏦 Trump narrows Fed Chair selection: "Down to maybe one"
📈 Risk sentiment improves after Trump announces Greenland deal framework—no new tariffs imposed
🇦🇺 Australia unemployment drops to 4.1% in December (unexpected)
🏦 Trump narrows Fed Chair selection: "Down to maybe one"
January 22, 2026 at 7:31 AM
🧵 MARKET OPEN - January 22, 2026
📈 Risk sentiment improves after Trump announces Greenland deal framework—no new tariffs imposed
🇦🇺 Australia unemployment drops to 4.1% in December (unexpected)
🏦 Trump narrows Fed Chair selection: "Down to maybe one"
📈 Risk sentiment improves after Trump announces Greenland deal framework—no new tariffs imposed
🇦🇺 Australia unemployment drops to 4.1% in December (unexpected)
🏦 Trump narrows Fed Chair selection: "Down to maybe one"
🚨 Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap 📊
Early start ahead! UK labour market data drops at 08:00 CET 🇬🇧
👀 Key watch: Wage numbers
Softer-than-expected wage growth = higher odds of a Bank of England rate cut 📉
Also on deck: SNB's Schlegel speaks 🇨🇭
Early start ahead! UK labour market data drops at 08:00 CET 🇬🇧
👀 Key watch: Wage numbers
Softer-than-expected wage growth = higher odds of a Bank of England rate cut 📉
Also on deck: SNB's Schlegel speaks 🇨🇭
January 19, 2026 at 4:07 PM
🚨 Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap 📊
Early start ahead! UK labour market data drops at 08:00 CET 🇬🇧
👀 Key watch: Wage numbers
Softer-than-expected wage growth = higher odds of a Bank of England rate cut 📉
Also on deck: SNB's Schlegel speaks 🇨🇭
Early start ahead! UK labour market data drops at 08:00 CET 🇬🇧
👀 Key watch: Wage numbers
Softer-than-expected wage growth = higher odds of a Bank of England rate cut 📉
Also on deck: SNB's Schlegel speaks 🇨🇭
1/3 🚨 MARKET OPEN: Risk Aversion Reigns
🇺🇸 Fed & USD: Fed turmoil threatens Dollar supremacy; BlackRock’s Rick Rieder gains support for Chair.
🇪🇺 Trade: Trump tariff threats roil markets. DB says Euro pain limited by US asset exposure.
🇺🇸 Fed & USD: Fed turmoil threatens Dollar supremacy; BlackRock’s Rick Rieder gains support for Chair.
🇪🇺 Trade: Trump tariff threats roil markets. DB says Euro pain limited by US asset exposure.
January 19, 2026 at 8:39 AM
1/3 🚨 MARKET OPEN: Risk Aversion Reigns
🇺🇸 Fed & USD: Fed turmoil threatens Dollar supremacy; BlackRock’s Rick Rieder gains support for Chair.
🇪🇺 Trade: Trump tariff threats roil markets. DB says Euro pain limited by US asset exposure.
🇺🇸 Fed & USD: Fed turmoil threatens Dollar supremacy; BlackRock’s Rick Rieder gains support for Chair.
🇪🇺 Trade: Trump tariff threats roil markets. DB says Euro pain limited by US asset exposure.
Nikkei reports that TEPCO will restart one of its reactors at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant. Contrast that to Germany, which has switched them all off and then look at EURJPY :-)
January 18, 2026 at 8:02 AM
Nikkei reports that TEPCO will restart one of its reactors at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant. Contrast that to Germany, which has switched them all off and then look at EURJPY :-)
🚨 **MARKET OPEN: Friday Headlines** 🚨
Mixed signals across global markets this morning. Here's what's moving:
🇯🇵 Japan: Yields ↑ | BOJ sources hint at rate hike scope | Verbal intervention continues | Snap election update
Mixed signals across global markets this morning. Here's what's moving:
🇯🇵 Japan: Yields ↑ | BOJ sources hint at rate hike scope | Verbal intervention continues | Snap election update
January 16, 2026 at 8:13 AM
🚨 **MARKET OPEN: Friday Headlines** 🚨
Mixed signals across global markets this morning. Here's what's moving:
🇯🇵 Japan: Yields ↑ | BOJ sources hint at rate hike scope | Verbal intervention continues | Snap election update
Mixed signals across global markets this morning. Here's what's moving:
🇯🇵 Japan: Yields ↑ | BOJ sources hint at rate hike scope | Verbal intervention continues | Snap election update
🚨 Market Open | Key Headlines
🇺🇸 Oil drops after Trump’s Iran remarks
🇺🇸 Trump aims for “swift & decisive” military action in Iran.
🇺🇸 No plans to remove Powell despite probe — Trump tells Reuters.
🇺🇸 US sets 25% tariff on select chip sales tied to Nvidia deal.
🇺🇸 Oil drops after Trump’s Iran remarks
🇺🇸 Trump aims for “swift & decisive” military action in Iran.
🇺🇸 No plans to remove Powell despite probe — Trump tells Reuters.
🇺🇸 US sets 25% tariff on select chip sales tied to Nvidia deal.
January 15, 2026 at 8:42 AM
🚨 Market Open | Key Headlines
🇺🇸 Oil drops after Trump’s Iran remarks
🇺🇸 Trump aims for “swift & decisive” military action in Iran.
🇺🇸 No plans to remove Powell despite probe — Trump tells Reuters.
🇺🇸 US sets 25% tariff on select chip sales tied to Nvidia deal.
🇺🇸 Oil drops after Trump’s Iran remarks
🇺🇸 Trump aims for “swift & decisive” military action in Iran.
🇺🇸 No plans to remove Powell despite probe — Trump tells Reuters.
🇺🇸 US sets 25% tariff on select chip sales tied to Nvidia deal.
🚨 Market Open: Key Headlines
🇯🇵 JPY strengthens on verbal intervention.
🏦 BOJ’s Ueda signals rate-hike path remains intact as election chatter builds.
💬 JP Morgan’s Dimon: Trump’s Fed attacks could push inflation higher.
🇮🇷 Trump urges Iranians to keep protesting, says “help is on its way.”
🇯🇵 JPY strengthens on verbal intervention.
🏦 BOJ’s Ueda signals rate-hike path remains intact as election chatter builds.
💬 JP Morgan’s Dimon: Trump’s Fed attacks could push inflation higher.
🇮🇷 Trump urges Iranians to keep protesting, says “help is on its way.”
January 14, 2026 at 10:09 AM
🚨 Market Open: Key Headlines
🇯🇵 JPY strengthens on verbal intervention.
🏦 BOJ’s Ueda signals rate-hike path remains intact as election chatter builds.
💬 JP Morgan’s Dimon: Trump’s Fed attacks could push inflation higher.
🇮🇷 Trump urges Iranians to keep protesting, says “help is on its way.”
🇯🇵 JPY strengthens on verbal intervention.
🏦 BOJ’s Ueda signals rate-hike path remains intact as election chatter builds.
💬 JP Morgan’s Dimon: Trump’s Fed attacks could push inflation higher.
🇮🇷 Trump urges Iranians to keep protesting, says “help is on its way.”
🚨 Market Open | Jan 13, 2026
🇯🇵 Yen slides while JGB yields climb — BOJ may face pressure for an April hike.
🇺🇸 Trump hits nations linked to Iran with a 25% tariff.
🏦 Fed’s Williams signals no near-term rate moves as Powell faces Justice probe backlash.
🇯🇵 Yen slides while JGB yields climb — BOJ may face pressure for an April hike.
🇺🇸 Trump hits nations linked to Iran with a 25% tariff.
🏦 Fed’s Williams signals no near-term rate moves as Powell faces Justice probe backlash.
January 13, 2026 at 7:32 AM
🚨 Market Open | Jan 13, 2026
🇯🇵 Yen slides while JGB yields climb — BOJ may face pressure for an April hike.
🇺🇸 Trump hits nations linked to Iran with a 25% tariff.
🏦 Fed’s Williams signals no near-term rate moves as Powell faces Justice probe backlash.
🇯🇵 Yen slides while JGB yields climb — BOJ may face pressure for an April hike.
🇺🇸 Trump hits nations linked to Iran with a 25% tariff.
🏦 Fed’s Williams signals no near-term rate moves as Powell faces Justice probe backlash.
🚨 MARKET OPEN: Key Headlines 📊
📈 Dollar & commodities gaining momentum ahead of US NFP
🔴 Russia rejects Trump's 20-point Ukraine peace plan, calling it "forming a true axis of war" as tensions escalate
💼 Fed's Miran pushes for 150 bps cuts in 2026 to boost employment & support growth
📈 Dollar & commodities gaining momentum ahead of US NFP
🔴 Russia rejects Trump's 20-point Ukraine peace plan, calling it "forming a true axis of war" as tensions escalate
💼 Fed's Miran pushes for 150 bps cuts in 2026 to boost employment & support growth
January 9, 2026 at 7:19 AM
🚨 MARKET OPEN: Key Headlines 📊
📈 Dollar & commodities gaining momentum ahead of US NFP
🔴 Russia rejects Trump's 20-point Ukraine peace plan, calling it "forming a true axis of war" as tensions escalate
💼 Fed's Miran pushes for 150 bps cuts in 2026 to boost employment & support growth
📈 Dollar & commodities gaining momentum ahead of US NFP
🔴 Russia rejects Trump's 20-point Ukraine peace plan, calling it "forming a true axis of war" as tensions escalate
💼 Fed's Miran pushes for 150 bps cuts in 2026 to boost employment & support growth
🚨 Market Open Brief | Jan 8, 2026
🇯🇵 Japan: Wages fell sharply in November.
🇺🇸 US: Trump reportedly wants oil prices at $50 a barrel.
🇺🇸 US: Trump’s proposal to block corporate homebuying surprised Wall Street.
🇺🇸 US: Trump calls for a 50% increase in defence spending by 2027.
🇯🇵 Japan: Wages fell sharply in November.
🇺🇸 US: Trump reportedly wants oil prices at $50 a barrel.
🇺🇸 US: Trump’s proposal to block corporate homebuying surprised Wall Street.
🇺🇸 US: Trump calls for a 50% increase in defence spending by 2027.
January 8, 2026 at 7:25 AM
🚨 Market Open Brief | Jan 8, 2026
🇯🇵 Japan: Wages fell sharply in November.
🇺🇸 US: Trump reportedly wants oil prices at $50 a barrel.
🇺🇸 US: Trump’s proposal to block corporate homebuying surprised Wall Street.
🇺🇸 US: Trump calls for a 50% increase in defence spending by 2027.
🇯🇵 Japan: Wages fell sharply in November.
🇺🇸 US: Trump reportedly wants oil prices at $50 a barrel.
🇺🇸 US: Trump’s proposal to block corporate homebuying surprised Wall Street.
🇺🇸 US: Trump calls for a 50% increase in defence spending by 2027.
Tomorrow’s Macro Roadmap: Swiss CPI, SNB minutes, US Jobless claims & productivity in focus
Full post at: ggma-app.com/articles
Full post at: ggma-app.com/articles
January 7, 2026 at 5:43 PM
Tomorrow’s Macro Roadmap: Swiss CPI, SNB minutes, US Jobless claims & productivity in focus
Full post at: ggma-app.com/articles
Full post at: ggma-app.com/articles
🚨 MARKET OPEN: 5 Things to Know
🇦🇺 Australia: Core inflation slows → RBA hold case strengthens.
🛢️ Oil: Slides after Pres. Trump announces Venezuelan oil exports to US.
⚖️ Tariffs: SCOTUS sets Friday for key rulings on Trump's trade policies.
🇦🇺 Australia: Core inflation slows → RBA hold case strengthens.
🛢️ Oil: Slides after Pres. Trump announces Venezuelan oil exports to US.
⚖️ Tariffs: SCOTUS sets Friday for key rulings on Trump's trade policies.
January 7, 2026 at 7:57 AM
🚨 MARKET OPEN: 5 Things to Know
🇦🇺 Australia: Core inflation slows → RBA hold case strengthens.
🛢️ Oil: Slides after Pres. Trump announces Venezuelan oil exports to US.
⚖️ Tariffs: SCOTUS sets Friday for key rulings on Trump's trade policies.
🇦🇺 Australia: Core inflation slows → RBA hold case strengthens.
🛢️ Oil: Slides after Pres. Trump announces Venezuelan oil exports to US.
⚖️ Tariffs: SCOTUS sets Friday for key rulings on Trump's trade policies.
Bund futures edge higher after the release of the first German regional CPIs, which come in on the low side
January 6, 2026 at 9:28 AM
Bund futures edge higher after the release of the first German regional CPIs, which come in on the low side
🚨GGMA Morning Brief:
US captures Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro
Philly Fed’s Paulson sees room for cuts ‘later in the year’
Ueda highlights BOJ’s intention to keep raising rates to bankers; Mfg. PMI improves
China’s services gauge slows again with growth at a six-month low
US captures Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro
Philly Fed’s Paulson sees room for cuts ‘later in the year’
Ueda highlights BOJ’s intention to keep raising rates to bankers; Mfg. PMI improves
China’s services gauge slows again with growth at a six-month low
January 5, 2026 at 7:38 AM
🚨GGMA Morning Brief:
US captures Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro
Philly Fed’s Paulson sees room for cuts ‘later in the year’
Ueda highlights BOJ’s intention to keep raising rates to bankers; Mfg. PMI improves
China’s services gauge slows again with growth at a six-month low
US captures Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro
Philly Fed’s Paulson sees room for cuts ‘later in the year’
Ueda highlights BOJ’s intention to keep raising rates to bankers; Mfg. PMI improves
China’s services gauge slows again with growth at a six-month low
Good morning, here are the main overnight headlines:
Trump’s Ukraine plan faces new obstacles after Putin call - BBG
Trump says he'd still like to fire Jerome Powell - BI
Yuan climbs past 7 per dollar onshore for the first time since 2023
Trump’s Ukraine plan faces new obstacles after Putin call - BBG
Trump says he'd still like to fire Jerome Powell - BI
Yuan climbs past 7 per dollar onshore for the first time since 2023
December 30, 2025 at 8:10 AM
Good morning, here are the main overnight headlines:
Trump’s Ukraine plan faces new obstacles after Putin call - BBG
Trump says he'd still like to fire Jerome Powell - BI
Yuan climbs past 7 per dollar onshore for the first time since 2023
Trump’s Ukraine plan faces new obstacles after Putin call - BBG
Trump says he'd still like to fire Jerome Powell - BI
Yuan climbs past 7 per dollar onshore for the first time since 2023
Here is the summary of my morning brief: Japan’s real policy rate is too low, Silver prices retreat from historical highs, Bitcoin breaks above $90,000, How Investors Are Preparing for a New Fed, Economic Calendar: SNB Sight Deposits & US Pending Home Sales in Focus tinyurl.com/3mydy93y
December 29, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Here is the summary of my morning brief: Japan’s real policy rate is too low, Silver prices retreat from historical highs, Bitcoin breaks above $90,000, How Investors Are Preparing for a New Fed, Economic Calendar: SNB Sight Deposits & US Pending Home Sales in Focus tinyurl.com/3mydy93y
I joined my friends at Livesquawk for a preview of the ECB meeting. You can listen to our conversation here: x.com/LiveSquawk/sta...
December 18, 2025 at 11:46 AM
I joined my friends at Livesquawk for a preview of the ECB meeting. You can listen to our conversation here: x.com/LiveSquawk/sta...
#WTI is under pressure this morning. I suspect this is related to the ongoing peace negotiations regarding Ukraine and the somewhat optimistic headlines. However, the chart from @IanRHarnett also looks quite intriguing and suggests much lower oil prices in the future.
December 16, 2025 at 8:19 AM
#WTI is under pressure this morning. I suspect this is related to the ongoing peace negotiations regarding Ukraine and the somewhat optimistic headlines. However, the chart from @IanRHarnett also looks quite intriguing and suggests much lower oil prices in the future.
Just a heads up. The UK labour market report will be published at 08:00 CET. The consensus is that the unemployment rate will rise, job growth will slow, and wage growth will decelerate as well.
December 16, 2025 at 6:53 AM
Just a heads up. The UK labour market report will be published at 08:00 CET. The consensus is that the unemployment rate will rise, job growth will slow, and wage growth will decelerate as well.
Watch JGB's and $USDJPY on Monday: Analysts at $MS predicted that, had another candidate won, the yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds could fall to 3 per cent. A Takaichi victory, they said, could cause the yield to rise to 3.35 per cent.
October 4, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Watch JGB's and $USDJPY on Monday: Analysts at $MS predicted that, had another candidate won, the yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds could fall to 3 per cent. A Takaichi victory, they said, could cause the yield to rise to 3.35 per cent.
Monday could be fun. IG Weekend markets are currently in the red. Tariffs are not just a bargaining tool but also a source of revenue!:
Peter Navarro, a Trump trade adviser, told CNBC on Friday that the tariff effort can replace the revenue of tax cuts.
$DXY $SPX $TLT $VIX
1/3
Peter Navarro, a Trump trade adviser, told CNBC on Friday that the tariff effort can replace the revenue of tax cuts.
$DXY $SPX $TLT $VIX
1/3
February 1, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Monday could be fun. IG Weekend markets are currently in the red. Tariffs are not just a bargaining tool but also a source of revenue!:
Peter Navarro, a Trump trade adviser, told CNBC on Friday that the tariff effort can replace the revenue of tax cuts.
$DXY $SPX $TLT $VIX
1/3
Peter Navarro, a Trump trade adviser, told CNBC on Friday that the tariff effort can replace the revenue of tax cuts.
$DXY $SPX $TLT $VIX
1/3
Wall Street’s big hope is Trump pulls his punches on immigration
Deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants could shrink the U.S. GDP by 8% and result in inflation, labor shortages, and major disruptions in sectors like agriculture, construction, and hospitality.
Deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants could shrink the U.S. GDP by 8% and result in inflation, labor shortages, and major disruptions in sectors like agriculture, construction, and hospitality.
January 26, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Wall Street’s big hope is Trump pulls his punches on immigration
Deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants could shrink the U.S. GDP by 8% and result in inflation, labor shortages, and major disruptions in sectors like agriculture, construction, and hospitality.
Deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants could shrink the U.S. GDP by 8% and result in inflation, labor shortages, and major disruptions in sectors like agriculture, construction, and hospitality.
#Inflation That’s Stubbornly Sticky Is Biggest Threat to Global #Economy, #Hildebrand Says
“While inflation has clearly come down, much of it driven by the post pandemic adjustments, I don’t think this inflation story is completely over,” he said. “The biggest risk would be that we wake up and
1/2
“While inflation has clearly come down, much of it driven by the post pandemic adjustments, I don’t think this inflation story is completely over,” he said. “The biggest risk would be that we wake up and
1/2
January 20, 2025 at 11:06 AM
#Inflation That’s Stubbornly Sticky Is Biggest Threat to Global #Economy, #Hildebrand Says
“While inflation has clearly come down, much of it driven by the post pandemic adjustments, I don’t think this inflation story is completely over,” he said. “The biggest risk would be that we wake up and
1/2
“While inflation has clearly come down, much of it driven by the post pandemic adjustments, I don’t think this inflation story is completely over,” he said. “The biggest risk would be that we wake up and
1/2
A small group of bond traders believe the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates will be to increase them, contrary to the majority view that rates will be cut
- Money-market options prices imply about a 25% chance of a hike
- Rate-hike bets emerged after a hot December jobs report
1/2
- Money-market options prices imply about a 25% chance of a hike
- Rate-hike bets emerged after a hot December jobs report
1/2
January 19, 2025 at 8:29 PM
A small group of bond traders believe the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates will be to increase them, contrary to the majority view that rates will be cut
- Money-market options prices imply about a 25% chance of a hike
- Rate-hike bets emerged after a hot December jobs report
1/2
- Money-market options prices imply about a 25% chance of a hike
- Rate-hike bets emerged after a hot December jobs report
1/2