Giacomo Grassi
@giacgrassi.bsky.social
630 followers 99 following 110 posts
Scientist @EU_Commission's Joint Research Centre. Forests, carbon and climate in the science/policy interface. Member #IPCC task force Bureau #AR7. Views mine.
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Reposted by Giacomo Grassi
giacgrassi.bsky.social
thanks to the great team of co-authors, including Michel den Elzen, Zuelclady M.F. Araujo Gutierrez, Will Lamb, Nicklas Forsell, Joana B. Melo, Simone Rossi, Malte Meinshausen, Sandro Federici, Matthew GIDDEN, Kimon Keramidas, Anu Korosuo
giacgrassi.bsky.social
🤔 However, land use remains a blind spot in tracking progress under the #ParisAgreement, mainly due to inconsistencies between global models and country-reported data.

💡 It is crucial that future #GlobalStocktakes include comparisons between modeled and country-provided net land-use emissions.

2/
giacgrassi.bsky.social
What is the contribution of land use to countries' climate pledges?

🖋️ A new paper led by Rosa Roman-Cuesta explores this question and offers a way forward.

🌲 The study finds that land use makes up a quarter of global 2030 mitigation pledges — mostly reliant on external support.

rdcu.be/eydhU

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Land remains a blind spot in tracking progress under the Paris Agreement due to lack of data comparability
Communications Earth & Environment - Discrepancies exist between data used in countries’ greenhouse gas inventories and modelled benchmarks for the Paris agreement, according to an...
rdcu.be
giacgrassi.bsky.social
Thanks to the stellar co-authors, including @glenpeters.bsky.social , @pepcanadell.bsky.social , @gidden.bsky.social and others, and to all participants of the IPCC Expert Meeting.

7/7
giacgrassi.bsky.social
This is relevant for forest-rich nations, where “natural” sinks often play a major role in net-zero pledges.
Policymakers need to grasp these implications and adjust their climate ambition accordingly

6/7
giacgrassi.bsky.social
We also urge the scientific community to generate these inventory-aligned estimates and scenarios, and to explore the implications.

Key takeaways: under inventory definitions, the remaining carbon budget is smaller—and reaching net-zero CO₂ alone is not enough to stop warming.

5/7
giacgrassi.bsky.social
Drawing on prior studies and IPCC Expert Meetings, the IPCC has recently decided that its 7th Assessment Report will present land-use CO₂ estimates and scenarios that align with national inventory definitions.

Our Comment explains why this is a crucial step forward.

4/7
giacgrassi.bsky.social
These differing definitions are like two languages: each valid in its own context, but hard to compare without proper translation.

Reconciling them is key for aligning global models, national inventories, and Earth observation — ultimately building trust in land-use emission estimates.

3/7
giacgrassi.bsky.social
Climate science and national reporting use different definitions for anthropogenic land-use CO₂ fluxes.

This disconnect has led to a 7 billion-tonne annual gap in CO₂ estimates from land use—equivalent to 20% of global fossil CO₂ emissions—causing confusion among scientists and policymakers

2/7
giacgrassi.bsky.social
📣 New Comment on Improving land-use emission estimates under the Paris Agreement in Nature Sustainability www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Land carbon removals are key on the path to net-zero.
Yet, confusion exists on what “anthropogenic” land-use C fluxes are.

#LULUCF #IPCC #ParisAgreement

1/7
Improving land-use emission estimates under the Paris Agreement - Nature Sustainability
Climate science and national emissions reporting communities have historically used different definitions and methods for anthropogenic land-based carbon removals. As the mitigation agenda accelerates...
www.nature.com
giacgrassi.bsky.social
On 6–7 May 2025, a JRC-EEA workshop on Land Use Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) gathered in Ispra (IT) over 50 GHG inventory experts, scientists and policymakers.

We discussed challenges in GHG reporting and the decline of forest carbon sinks in Europe.

Agenda/presentations: lnkd.in/dkJNxSWE
giacgrassi.bsky.social
🧐 Confused about different estimates of land-use CO2 emissions?

🌲A new paper led by David Gibbs enhances comparability between satellite-based forest carbon flux maps and National greenhouse gas inventories.

➡️ Paper: lnkd.in/dU5-bv4P
➡️ Story: bit.ly/43qX2Mv
➡️ Country-level data: bit.ly/3XvBSJf
Revised and updated geospatial monitoring of 21st century forest carbon fluxes
Abstract. Earth observation data are increasingly used to estimate the magnitude and geographic distribution of greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes and reduce overall uncertainty in the global carbon budget, ...
essd.copernicus.org
giacgrassi.bsky.social
This is outrageous. Stupidity at work.

It’s a sign of ideological hostility to everything that involves a multilateral dialogue and cooperation.

If you ignore climate change, climate change will not ignore you.
katharinehayhoe.com
‼️The US-based @ipcc.bsky.social technical support unit (TSU) for Working Group 3 Co-Chairs has been terminated, and the US won’t be attending next week’s IPCC meeting where the AR7 chapter outlines will be approved.

More by @afreedma.bsky.social here:
Scoop: U.S. delegation pulled from key U.N. climate science meeting
The IPCC meeting in China is slated to determine the content in the group's next series of reports.
www.axios.com
giacgrassi.bsky.social
And for those wanting a deep dive into the complex issue of different definitions of anthropogenic vs natural carbon fluxes, here is the final report and presentations made at the #IPCC expert meeting on reconciling land use emissions, held last July
www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/mtdoc...
Publications - IPCC-TFI
www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp
giacgrassi.bsky.social
while in Germany ...https://www.thuenen.de/en/themenfelder/klima-und-luft/emissionsinventare-buchhaltung-fuer-den-klimaschutz/treibhausgas-emissionen-lulucf
giacgrassi.bsky.social
Honored to have contributed to the IPCC AR7 scoping meeting last week
soniaseneviratne.bsky.social
The @ipcc.bsky.social #AR7 scoping meeting successfully took place in Kuala Lumpur last week, with more than 230 experts from 70 countries drafting the outlines of the three Working Group contributions to #IPCC's seventh report assessing policy-relevant science on #climatechange.