Giuseppe Carteny
@giucarny.bsky.social
Post-Doc @ Saarland University #polsci #politicalbehaviour #politicalattitudes #partypolitics #manifesto #rstats
🌐 https://giuseppecarteny.com/
🌐 https://giuseppecarteny.com/
Nonetheless, our study offers a complete account of how the relative weight of ideological and immigration attitudes reshaped voting probabilities inside Italy’s right-wing coalition — suggesting ideological sorting rather than contagion.
December 22, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Nonetheless, our study offers a complete account of how the relative weight of ideological and immigration attitudes reshaped voting probabilities inside Italy’s right-wing coalition — suggesting ideological sorting rather than contagion.
❗Limitations: In this study we rely on cross-sectional data. Panel data for the Italian electorate are limited in scope and depth, meaning we cannot track inter-individual change (i.e., radicalisation) and must rely on aggregate proxies. Moreover, we cannot and don't make any causal claim.
December 22, 2025 at 9:04 AM
❗Limitations: In this study we rely on cross-sectional data. Panel data for the Italian electorate are limited in scope and depth, meaning we cannot track inter-individual change (i.e., radicalisation) and must rely on aggregate proxies. Moreover, we cannot and don't make any causal claim.
Examining the coalition reveals a mechanism: Anti-immigration voters previously voted for moderate parties, and then moved towards radical ones. This indicates a form of ideological sorting rather than a clear radicalisation of the centre-right electorate as a whole.
December 22, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Examining the coalition reveals a mechanism: Anti-immigration voters previously voted for moderate parties, and then moved towards radical ones. This indicates a form of ideological sorting rather than a clear radicalisation of the centre-right electorate as a whole.
The correlation between ideological self-placement and voting choice did not increase linearly over time. For the electorate of the moderate-right-dominated coalition, being on the right has long mattered, and it remains almost equally important under today's radical-led coalition.
December 22, 2025 at 9:04 AM
The correlation between ideological self-placement and voting choice did not increase linearly over time. For the electorate of the moderate-right-dominated coalition, being on the right has long mattered, and it remains almost equally important under today's radical-led coalition.
Anti-immigration sentiment has gained explanatory power, especially in 2022. These attitudes have become a stronger and more independent from ideological self-placement – this growth wouldn’t appear without controlling for left-right self-placement.
December 22, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Anti-immigration sentiment has gained explanatory power, especially in 2022. These attitudes have become a stronger and more independent from ideological self-placement – this growth wouldn’t appear without controlling for left-right self-placement.
We expected two forces to increasingly shape coalition support over time:
- stronger right-wing ideological identification,
- and growing anti-immigration attitudes.
If both were rising, this would point toward a radicalisation of the coalition’s electorate. But we find a more complex picture.
- stronger right-wing ideological identification,
- and growing anti-immigration attitudes.
If both were rising, this would point toward a radicalisation of the coalition’s electorate. But we find a more complex picture.
December 22, 2025 at 9:04 AM
We expected two forces to increasingly shape coalition support over time:
- stronger right-wing ideological identification,
- and growing anti-immigration attitudes.
If both were rising, this would point toward a radicalisation of the coalition’s electorate. But we find a more complex picture.
- stronger right-wing ideological identification,
- and growing anti-immigration attitudes.
If both were rising, this would point toward a radicalisation of the coalition’s electorate. But we find a more complex picture.
Italy is a unique case in Europe: since the mid-1990s, radical and centre-right parties have governed together repeatedly, and since 2018 the balance of power has flipped — the radical right now dominates the coalition.
December 22, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Italy is a unique case in Europe: since the mid-1990s, radical and centre-right parties have governed together repeatedly, and since 2018 the balance of power has flipped — the radical right now dominates the coalition.
Nice post! About the R situation, I would take a look at this other one - www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2022/05...
Marginalia: A guide to figuring out what the heck marginal effects, marginal slopes, average marginal effects, marginal effects at the mean, and all these other marginal things are | Andrew Heiss
Define what marginal effects even are, and then explore the subtle differences between average marginal effects, marginal effects at the mean, and marginal effects at representative values with the ma...
www.andrewheiss.com
November 20, 2025 at 10:52 AM
Nice post! About the R situation, I would take a look at this other one - www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2022/05...
Reposted by Giuseppe Carteny
Brahmani is presenting "Is there anything Left?: A Global Analysis on Changes in Engagement with Political Content on Twitter in the Musk Era" (journalqd.org/article/view...).
Joint work with @rosanavarrete.bsky.social and @giucarny.bsky.social
Joint work with @rosanavarrete.bsky.social and @giucarny.bsky.social
Is there anything Left?: A Global Analysis on Changes in Engagement with Political Content on Twitter in the Musk Era
| Journal of Quantitative Description: Digital Media
journalqd.org
July 24, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Brahmani is presenting "Is there anything Left?: A Global Analysis on Changes in Engagement with Political Content on Twitter in the Musk Era" (journalqd.org/article/view...).
Joint work with @rosanavarrete.bsky.social and @giucarny.bsky.social
Joint work with @rosanavarrete.bsky.social and @giucarny.bsky.social