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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 13

"What follows now is probably a sustained campaign by Israel. Its airforce has around 300 manned fighter-jets and long-range attack drones, but only a limited number can attack simultaneously due to its small number of refuelling tankers." www.economist.com/middle-east-...

Israel launches an attack on Iran—without America

Waves of strikes target Iran’s leaders and nuclear programme

www.economist.com

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 13

In private, though, does anyone think the Saudis or Emiratis are sad to see the IRGC decapitated? Iran has spent decades destabilizing Arab states and fomenting chaos. Its neighbors might be afraid of it—but don't confuse that for genuine friendship or support in the region.

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 13

The Gulf reconciliation with Iran was basically a protection racket: paying off the local mob boss so nobody burns down your store. That's also why Saudi Arabia was so quick to condemn Israel's strikes on Iran this morning, and why most (if not all) other Gulf states will follow.

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 13

That goes for Gulf states too. There's been some baffling commentary in recent months (e.g. here in @ForeignAffairs) about how they no longer perceive Iran as a major threat. It confuses a tactical rapprochement with a genuine warming of relations. www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/new-b...

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 13

A bit of nuance on regional reactions: plenty of people in the Middle East are happy to see Iran hit. They are also deeply worried about what comes next. But Lebanese, Syrians, Yemenis etc. who suffered for years because of the Islamic republic are glad to see it bloodied. 🧵

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 12

"'This has been a bad week for the Army for anyone who cares about us being a neutral institution,' one commander at Fort Bragg told @militarydotcom.bsky.social on the condition of anonymity to avoid retaliation. 'This was shameful.'" www.military.com/daily-news/2...

Bragg Soldiers Who Cheered Trump's Political Attacks While in Uniform Were Checked for Allegiance, Appearance

As President Donald Trump viciously attacked his perceived political foes, he whipped up boos from the gathered troops directed at California leaders, including Gov. Gavin Newsom.

www.military.com

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 12

On further steps Iran might take after the IAEA censure vote: "Sources in Tehran indicated to @amwajmedia.bsky.social that the 'special measures' may include the expulsion of foreign inspectors. Such a step would be a major escalation and potentially cross US red lines." amwaj.media/en/article/i...

Iran-US talks on edge amid signs of escalation ahead

On the eve of a fateful vote by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors, tension over the future of the Iranian nuclear program is spiraling. In an unusual step, the US has or...

amwaj.media

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 12

The US embassy in Israel today instructed staff and their families not to travel outside greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Be'er Sheva. It issued similar restrictions in April and October last year after the Iranian ballistic-missile attacks on Israel

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 12

Exactly right: "Regardless of the location, it is hard to see why Saudi Arabia would entertain a significant nuclear partnership with Iran—let alone one that hands the Islamic republic dominance over a sector the kingdom is keen to develop and control." amwaj.media/en/article/d...

Deep Dive: Why Saudi Arabia shies away from nuclear consortium with Iran

The idea of a regional nuclear consortium is gaining momentum as Iran and the United States explore ways to advance their negotiations over the future of the Iranian atomic program. Following the rece...

amwaj.media

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 12

One other thing: worth noting that US media leaks overnight were non-specific. No intel about Israel taking operational steps for an imminent strike. Just that it was "considering military action" or "fully ready" to strike, which is common knowledge www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-...

Israel is poised to launch operation on Iran, multiple sources tell CBS News

U.S. officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran, multiple sources say.

www.cbsnews.com

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 12

The dilemma for Trump is that the stunt works exactly once. If it doesn't unblock the negotiations—which, from the outside, do seem genuinely stuck on the issue of enrichment—then you have to choose between following through on your threats or devaluing them

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 12

Don't have a clear answer what's happening with US/Iran (no one who's talking about it publicly does!) but will just say that last night's news can be, simultaneously, a stunt to pressure Iran to make concessions *and* the kind of concrete step you'd take before military action

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 11

A trade war run by ideologues and buffoons: "[Chinese] exports have risen by 6% overall, owing to increased shipments to Europe and South-East Asia. China's currency, meanwhile, is stronger now against the dollar than it was before April 2nd." www.economist.com/finance-and-...

How America and China spooked each other

As officials met in London, the costs of their trade war were abundantly clear

www.economist.com

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 11

All of the "flaws" here were entirely predictable. "The military and GHF had prepared for smaller crowds than the tens of thousands who have come to the sites" — what on earth did they expect, setting up only a handful of centers to serve 2m people? www.wsj.com/world/middle...

A Flawed Attempt at Delivering Gaza Aid Led to a Wave of Deaths

The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation was created to get food quickly to those who need it most. It soon ran into trouble.

www.wsj.com

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 11

"Still, even among those pressing for diplomacy, there is concern about the president's penchant for changing his mind depending on who he’s last spoken to. There's a fear Trump... could act on rhetoric many largely deem negotiating bravado." www.politico.com/news/2025/06...

Inside the MAGA vs. hawk battle to sway Trump on bombing Iran

Trump allies are trying to counter a private pressure campaign to ditch Steve Witkoff’s diplomatic effort and join Israel in attacking Tehran.

www.politico.com

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 11

Well, this explains that Tucker Carlson tweet denouncing Levin last week (and the claim is indeed untrue: it conflates enriching some weapons-grade uranium with building a nuclear weapon)

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 10

As ever with Trump, this could be a very newsworthy admission or it could be meaningless word salad, and there's really no way to be sure which it is www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Trump says Iran is involved in Gaza hostage negotiations

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday Iran is involved in negotiations aimed at arranging a ceasefire-for-hostages deal between Israel and Hamas.

www.reuters.com

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 10

Was Huckabee freelancing a bit? Hard to imagine Trump getting this deep in the weeds of Israeli politics. And it wouldn't be the first time a Trump ambassador to Israel was out of step with the president (e.g. David Friedman and annexation).

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 10

I'm curious to see how this will play in Trumpworld. The isolationist wing dislikes Netanyahu (for obvious reasons) and distrusts Huckabee (he's a neocon). The latter intervening to help the former—supposedly because of "the Iranian issue", no less—won't go over well

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 10

Couple of thoughts here, beyond pointless hand-wringing about how this is an enormous breach of diplomatic norms (🫠). If Huckabee is personally intervening to try and save the Israeli government, it tells you how worried Netanyahu is about losing his coalition www.timesofisrael.com/us-ambassado...

US Ambassador Huckabee said meeting with Haredi MKs in bid to prevent coalition’s fall

Israeli TV says US envoy told ultra-Orthodox figures that 'gov't stability is important for addressing the Iran issue,' said elections would make it more difficult to back Israel

www.timesofisrael.com

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 9

"Every day, we lose more ways to survive. My son is only asking for the bare minimum — a loaf of bread. We're not asking for proper housing or clothes or even meat. All we want is a loaf of bread to stop the children's crying. Is that too much to ask?" www.nytimes.com/2025/06/07/w...

Parents in Gaza Are Running Out of Ways to Feed Their Children: ‘All We Want Is a Loaf of Bread’

www.nytimes.com

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 6

In the 1980s Israel allowed an Islamist group in Gaza to start gathering weapons, in the hope that it would fight Fatah, Israel's main enemy at the time. That group went on to become Hamas. Glad to see everyone has learned the right lessons from history www.nytimes.com/2025/06/05/w...

Israel Armed Palestinian Militia to Fight Hamas, Officials Say

www.nytimes.com

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 6

The GHF ignored weeks of warnings that its model would mean overwhelming crowds. And then the inevitable result: "Senior commanders had considered managing the crowds through the use of live fire. 'The intent was to direct the population using gunfire.'" www.haaretz.com/middle-east-...

Testimonies: IDF responsible for lethal shootings near U.S.-led aid site in Gaza

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www.haaretz.com

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 4

The idea that Russia might "be helpful" on Iran talks has been floated for months. There's not much evidence it's actually happening. But it's useful for Putin to keep the idea alive in Trump's mind

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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · Jun 4

Iran shipped less oil to China in May, at least according to preliminary data, but it seems unclear how much of that is due to tighter sanctions and how much is down to weak demand + refiners that stockpiled Iranian oil earlier in the year. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Iran Oil Flows to China Fall on Sanctions, Refinery Maintenance

Iran is shipping less oil to China, as toughening sanctions snarl the OPEC producer’s shipments and refinery demand falls in the world’s biggest fossil fuel importer.

www.bloomberg.com

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