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greatwhitecon.info
Snow White
@greatwhitecon.info
110 followers 63 following 90 posts
Putting the Arctic sea ice record straight
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greatwhitecon.info
Two different varieties of Arctic sea ice thickness, and hence volume, at the end of January 2026.

Compare and contrast the PIOMAS "model" versus satellite "measurements":

greatwhitecon.info/2026/02/fact...
A map of Arctic sea ice thickness on January 31st 2026, based on the PIOMAS model developed by the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington. A map of Arctic sea ice thickness on January 31st 2026. It's based on merged CryoSat-2, Sentinel 3 and SMOS satellite data from the Alfred Wegener Institute. A graph of Arctic sea ice volume on January 31st 2026, including data going back to 2010. It's based on the PIOMAS model developed by the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington. A graph of Arctic sea ice volume on January 31st 2026, including data going back to 2010. It's based on merged CryoSat-2, Sentinel 3 and SMOS satellite data from the Alfred Wegener Institute.
February 5, 2026 at 7:02 PM
greatwhitecon.info
Wake the bear
January 23, 2026 at 10:47 PM
greatwhitecon.info
The fantasy emperor is sadly lacking in new clothes:

greatwhitecon.info/2025/12/the-...

Image courtesy of ImageFX, not Grok.
"Donald Duck" An AI generated image of The Don floating on a lake in a giant yellow rubber duck, wearing a diaper and waving a toy sword.
January 17, 2026 at 10:59 PM
greatwhitecon.info
Due to Trump administration funding cuts @nsidc.bsky.social is no longer providing this sort of information on a monthly basis.

Hence here are the ERA5 MSLP and 925 hPa air temperature anomaly maps of the #Arctic for December 2025:

greatwhitecon.info/2026/-01/fac...
ERA5 mean sea level pressure map of the Arctic for December 2025. ERA5 temperature anomaly map of the Arctic at the 925 hPa pressure level for December 2025.
January 12, 2026 at 10:35 AM
greatwhitecon.info
Since AI imagery is in the news at the moment, here's one I prepared earlier, with the assistance of ImageFX rather than #Grok
An AI generated image of Donald Trump cosplaying a Viking warrior in a Greenland fjord.
January 11, 2026 at 12:38 PM
greatwhitecon.info
Whichever way you look at it, PIOMAS modelled #Arctic sea ice volume is currently the lowest it has ever been for the time of year since satellite coverage began in 1979.

Here's plots of the daily, monthly and annual data 👇

greatwhitecon.info/2026/01/fact...
Daily plot of PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume from 2010 to December 31st 2025 Plot of December average PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume from 1979 to 2025 Plot of annual average PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume from 1979 to 2025
January 5, 2026 at 9:09 AM
greatwhitecon.info
The Trump White House’s [lack of] National Security Strategy in the Arctic:

greatwhitecon.info/2025/12/the-...

"It makes no mention of the #Arctic or Alaska or even Greenland...

Or of any risk of conflict between Russia and the United States, in the Arctic or anywhere else on Planet Earth."
The Nagurskoye military base on Aleksandra Island in Franz Josef Land. Image via @thebarentsobserver.com
December 9, 2025 at 5:10 PM
greatwhitecon.info
According to the @nebriefing.bsky.social web site:

"81 MPs and 52 Peers signed up to attend, and many others arrived at the last minute without tickets."

Do you suppose that any of them were listening?

5/5
Publicity image for the 2025 UK National Emergency Briefing on the Climate and Nature Crisis, asserting that over 1,600 "fossil fuel lobbyists" attended the COP 30 conference in Brazil, whereas "Zero" such lobbyists would be attending the UK event.
December 8, 2025 at 12:13 PM
greatwhitecon.info
Here's an extract from Lieutenant General (Ret’d) Richard Nugee's presentation at the recent UK #NationalEmergencyBriefing:

greatwhitecon.info/2025/12/the-...

"The Russian Duma has claimed [the Arctic Ocean] is a Russian internal sea, whereas we treat the #Arctic as international waters."

1/n
Map of ports and military bases near and within the Arctic Circle
December 8, 2025 at 12:03 PM
greatwhitecon.info
At the end of November JAXA #Arctic sea ice extent and PIOMAS volume were both lowest for the time of year since satellite measurements began:

greatwhitecon.info/2025/12/fact...

Extent was 9.27 million km², and volume 9.20 thousand km³.
A graph of JAXA/ViSHOP Arctic sea ice extent on December 4th 2025 A graph of PIOMAS "modelled" Arctic sea ice volume on November 30th 2025
December 8, 2025 at 10:57 AM
greatwhitecon.info
Here's a map of #Arctic sea ice thickness at the end of October:

greatwhitecon.info/2025/11/fact...

It's based on data from the CryoSat-2, Sentinel 3 and SMOS satellites.
A map of Arctic sea ice thickness on October 31st 2025. It's based on merged CryoSat-2, Sentinel 3 and SMOS data from the Alfred Wegener Institute.
November 7, 2025 at 3:00 PM
greatwhitecon.info
Prompted by a regular reader, I've been experimenting with trying to persuade an LLM to accurately answer some scientific questions about #Arctic sea ice:

greatwhitecon.info/2025/11/grok...

Preliminary results obtained using xAI via Grok provide compelling empirical proof of Brandolini's Law:
A brief extract from a long conversation with Grok about Arctic sea ice. I point out to Grok that a supposed reference to Arctic data in the US Department of Energy's "Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate" actually refers to Antarctic data. In response xAI asserts that: "The DOE report explicitly references NSIDC Arctic sea ice data for its ~5% decline estimate since 1980, reflecting annual mean extent trends with noted post-2007 pauses, not Antarctic figures. The graph you shared shows Antarctic October anomalies with a near-flat slope, unrelated to the cited Arctic plot. Conflating hemispheres overlooks distinct regional dynamics—Arctic losses dominate seasonal minima, yet overall variability tempers linear projections—emphasizing empirical scrutiny over dismissal."
November 4, 2025 at 8:30 PM
greatwhitecon.info
A largely cloud free satellite image of the central Northwest Passage shows that the prior melt ponds along the southern route have drained, and that melt ponds have now formed on the northern route through McClure Strait:

greatwhitecon.info/2025/05/the-...

#Arctic #SeaIce #NWP
A “false colour” image of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago on June 21st 2025 from the MODIS instrument on the Terra satellite
June 22, 2025 at 1:11 PM
greatwhitecon.info
JAXA/ViSHOP #Arctic #SeaIce extent is now "lowest for the date" in their record going back to 1979:

greatwhitecon.info/2025/06/fact...
A graph of JAXA Arctic sea ice extent showing selected years from the 2010s and 2020s, dated June 19th 2025
June 20, 2025 at 10:07 AM
greatwhitecon.info
It looks as though there will be an early start to the Northwest Passage sailing season this year:

greatwhitecon.info/2025/05/the-...

"The #SeaIce in Lancaster Sound and Prince Regent Inlet is breaking up, Bellot Strait is mostly open water, and surface melt has begun across Larsen Sound"
A “false colour” image of the eastern Canadian Arctic Archipelago on June 13th 2025 from the MODIS instrument on the Terra satellite.
June 14, 2025 at 9:30 AM
greatwhitecon.info
Yeva has now left Haslar Marina and entered the Solent.

The next part of her "delivery voyage" is to head north through the North Sea then across the Arctic Circle near Iceland to the circumnavigation "start/finish line":

#EllaInTheArctic

2/n
Yeva's tracking map at 12:30 UTC on May 24th 2025
May 24, 2025 at 12:44 PM
greatwhitecon.info
In an hour or two's time Ella Hibbert is due to begin a single handed circumnavigation of the #Arctic in her yacht Yeva, starting in southern England.

Much more on the condition of the sea ice in the Northwest Passage and on Yeva's voyage here:

greatwhitecon.info/2025/05/the-...

#EllaInTheArctic
An image of Ella Hibbert in her yacht Yeva The initial route plan for Ella Hibbert's attempt to circumnavigate the Arctic Ocean in her yacht Yeva during the summer of 2025 The Canadian Ice Service's sea ice "stage of development" chart for the Western Arctic on May 19th 2025
May 24, 2025 at 11:29 AM
greatwhitecon.info
Good morning @therealpotholer54.bsky.social (BST),

Are you already aware that the team behind #ClimateTheMovie are taking @briancoxtalks.bsky.social's image in vain in their most recent contender for the Ig Nobel Prize in climate science?

greatwhitecon.info/2025/05/the-...

#TheGraphThatLied
May 10, 2025 at 7:30 AM
greatwhitecon.info
You may also wish to email your local friendly neighbourhood politician(s) about the matter?

Or even tag them in a comment in the space provided for that purpose below or over on LinkedIn?

Here's a visualisation of NSIDC #Arctic #SeaIce age data 👇

#ClimateChange #TruthDecay #ClimateBrawl

3/3
A visualisation of NSIDC Arctic sea ice age data for the week of April 1st 2025, which reveals that there is hardly any sea ice more than 4 years old left in the Arctic Ocean This is no joke!
May 9, 2025 at 4:26 PM
greatwhitecon.info
Unfortunately for Tom Nelson, Martin Durkin and the CO2 Coalition, the internet keeps receipts of airbrushing:

greatwhitecon.info/2025/05/pete...

#ClimateBrawl #ClimateTheMovie

Cc: @therealpotholer54.bsky.social @skepticalscience.bsky.social @geraldkutney.bsky.social @thedisproof.bsky.social
May 8, 2025 at 6:55 AM
greatwhitecon.info
It seems The Don's climate cuts are going to adversely affect my own work:

greatwhitecon.info/2025/05/trum...

"If you are a resident of the US you may also wish to contact your local friendly neighbourhood politician(s) about the matter?"

#Arctic #SeaIce #SII

Cc @nsidc.bsky.social @zacklabe.com
Effective May 5, 2025, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) will decommission its snow and ice data products from the Coasts, Oceans, and Geophysics Science Division (COGS). As a result, the level of services for affected products below will be reduced to Basic—meaning they will remain accessible but may not be actively maintained, updated, or fully supported. Sea Ice Index Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) Data Products Glacier Photograph Collection U.S. National Ice Center Arctic Sea Ice Charts and Climatologies in Gridded Format Gridded Monthly Sea Ice Extent and Concentration, 1850 Onward World Glacier Inventory If you rely on these products in your work, research, education, or planning, we invite you to share your story at nsidc@nsidc.org. Your input can help us demonstrate the importance of these data sets and advocate for future support.
May 8, 2025 at 5:57 AM
greatwhitecon.info
Here's the January 31st 2025 comparison between PIOMAS and CryoSat-2/SMOS #Arctic sea ice thickness and volume data:

greatwhitecon.info/2025/02/fact...

On January 31st PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume had reached 17.11 thousand km³, still 2nd lowest for the date in the PIOMAS record.
PIOMAS Arctic sea ice thickness map on January 31st 2025 PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume graph on January 31st 2025 CryoSat-2/SMOS merged Arctic sea ice thickness map on February 6th 2025 CryoSat-2/SMOS merged Arctic sea ice volume graph on January 31st 2025
February 9, 2025 at 9:27 AM
greatwhitecon.info
And in particular:
February 7, 2025 at 3:06 AM
greatwhitecon.info
Has anybody ever previously surfed the north shore of Spitsbergen in the dark?

greatwhitecon.info/2025/02/fact...

Do @redbull.com have access to choppers with searchlights?

Here's the nowcast 👇

#GWCABBWSC #Arctic big wave #surfing

Cc: @seaice.de
February 5, 2025 at 7:11 AM
greatwhitecon.info
The waiting period for the 2025 Great White Con #Arctic Basin Big Wave #Surfing Contest has begun.

On Saturday afternoon the temperature at the North Pole was above the freezing point of water, and there were 7 meter waves in the Fram Strait.

My West Devon alter ego was starting to get paddle fit!
The Earth.nullschool map of air temperature and winds in the Fram Strait at 12:00 UTC on Sunday February 2nd 2025 The Earth.nullschool map of wave height in the Fram Strait at 12:00 UTC on Sunday February 2nd 2025
February 4, 2025 at 8:12 AM