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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 1d

Note that 3 municipalities (Ballerup, Holstebro, Køge) are yet to release their data onto VALG. Hence why I only have data from 95, not 98 municipalities.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 1d

So for example, of the 9 lists using the letter Q, 5 are Independent Greens, but the remaining 4 are used by completely unrelated local lists.

For K, all but two of the lists are used by the Christian Democrats.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 1d

Here's the overview of the number of candidate lists and number of candidates corresponding to each party letter at the Danish municipal election. Parties with national ballot access (A, B, C, etc.) are uniquely assigned its corresponding letter. The remaining are not reserved.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 1d

I will note though that the poll from Epinion is an outlier. Polls from other pollsters have it closer to 8 or 9%. Even so, the shift is real, as the party was polling at 4-5% at the beginning of the year.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 1d

This itself is huge in my view. The Social Democratic reaction (moving their biggest hardliner on migration to the ministry on it) is so far seen as reactive and out of tactical political reasons, rather than being seen as a genuine shift.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 1d

3. The increased polling numbers for the party, and the Social Democratic reaction to it, sort of becomes a positive feedback loop for the party. It gives it way way more coverage and seriousness than it had back when it was closer to the 2% threshold.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 1d

This is quite widely met with misunderstanding, even though the actual reason is that there is no time to do it in the remainder of this parliamentary term; the government was also critisized for not making preparatory steps before now.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 1d

The government then made a clear misstep by reducing the price on candy, chocolate and coffee from 2026 onwards, but without announcing a decrease on the VAT for food (which in Denmark is 25%).

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 1d

2. The party was out campaigning about the increased prices on food before the government noticed it was a problem for many people.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 1d

There also was a scandal at Roskilde University, where a bunch of students from Bangladesh abused the rules to get a right to reside and work in the country, and the university itself encouraged it.

Overall, the party obviously does better, the bigger role immigration plays.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 1d

1. Immigration has increased in prominence again. From 2019 to very recently, it played a very minor role in Danish politics. Now it has increased. The party has campaigned on a message that Frederiksen is letting in too many Muslims, partly by cherry picking numbers.

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 1d

I was asked about the rise of the Danish People's Party (O) in a DM, and thought I would share my response as to why the party is gaining in the polls.
To me there are three prominent causes.🧵

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Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 2d

Now that the deadline has just passed, Danish municipalities are starting to release the candidate lists and electoral alliances.

You can view it all on valg.dk

Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 3d

Here are the electoral alliances announced for the municipal election in Copenhagen. It is one of the most high profile ones in years because its outcome is open.

Tomorrow is the deadline for approving candidate lists and electoral alliances for the Danish municipal elections.

Gust23 @gust2319.bsky.social · 10d

With more than 99% of votes counted, PAS will win a majority of seats and a majority of votes. I made a dumb mistake in excel which slightly underestimated its final vote share, although the seat distribution does not change.