Guy Baddis
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guybaddis.bsky.social
Guy Baddis
@guybaddis.bsky.social
e.g. Artist, dog-lover, and avid reader.
I sometimes wonder if owners mostly want a coach who makes them look good in TV interviews.
January 6, 2026 at 10:39 PM
I get the same impression.

The Basij are not defending their buildings.

In one location, at least, the police have flipped against the regime. I'll bet many more flip shortly.

Both of those changes suggest the regime is dissolving.

I expect the military will take over soon.
January 6, 2026 at 10:38 PM
Nathan, can I please try one more time to put this in perspective, before you kill one another?

Marcy is to DoJ as
Nathan is to Fed.
January 6, 2026 at 8:05 PM
p.s. Marcy Wheeler is to legal reporting as you are to Fed issues. Reads EVERYTHING.
January 6, 2026 at 7:43 PM
? I apologize for insulting you somehow.

Even if we insert another year, SCOTUS created enough procedural barriers to block the trial. Plus they ruled quickly when it helped Trump, and delayed on everything else.
January 6, 2026 at 7:41 PM
Without the intervention from SCOTUS, the trials would have happened prior to the election.

The talking heads are very unreliable on how the investigation & case proceeded. Look up stuff from serious legal reporters who read the filings, such as @emptywheel.bsky.social
January 6, 2026 at 7:33 PM
Blame SCOTUS
January 6, 2026 at 7:30 PM
You might be overusing presidential tipping point analysis.

It's an okay starting point, but the elections are less correlated because a state candidate might turn to dust, like Todd Akin in MO 2012.
January 6, 2026 at 5:02 PM
At least nobody is required to explain the term premium.
January 6, 2026 at 3:27 PM
Johnson could gone before the mid-terms.

But then someone else would have to take the fall.
January 6, 2026 at 3:19 PM
Never?

<sigh>

More evidence that he never paid attention in HS history classes.
January 6, 2026 at 2:28 PM
It's a puzzle.
January 4, 2026 at 2:18 PM
Is Russia somewhere past 100 attempts by now?
January 3, 2026 at 2:47 PM
I've seen nothing, and I suspect they'll try to say nothing for a while — which will infuriate some people but is almost certainly the right political decision: wait for more info.
January 3, 2026 at 2:44 PM
Exactly how it works...
January 3, 2026 at 12:35 PM
Reminds me of wisdom from a friend who found out we were going to have a baby girl: "It'll be the best 12 years of your life."
January 2, 2026 at 10:30 PM
As you note: Trump is bragging about the repeated cognitive screening.

That's a positive result for cognitive decline.
January 2, 2026 at 3:01 PM
The market thought it would be worse?

Oh my.
January 2, 2026 at 2:21 PM
Even worse for me: I bought candy before the inflationary surge in the late 70s.

So I remember buying a chick-o-stick for a dime. Now 50 cents in bulk.

But the amazing $300 calculator (1975) my older brother got for college, which replaced his slide rule, now costs $20.
January 2, 2026 at 2:11 PM
December 33rd.

Today already feels over.
January 2, 2026 at 12:48 PM
If the Basij collapse, the regime is done.
December 31, 2025 at 7:55 PM
My dad was a country doctor. So he had to do a bit of everything, and I mean everything.

He always argued against going directly to specialists. Whatever the symptoms, they'd diagnose something within their specialty - favoring a zebra they knew over the horse a generalist would diagnose first.
December 31, 2025 at 7:51 PM
So... an arch that's inaccessible to foot traffic?
December 31, 2025 at 7:47 PM
The Iranian protests seem like Sisyphus, rolling the boulder up the hill, over and over, never quite succeeding.

I've been hoping since the Green Movement protests in 2009 looked like they had a shot.
December 31, 2025 at 4:32 PM