In this "ask Ian," **Ian Bremmer** analyzes **Trump** ’s recent meeting with **Zelensky** and how close (or far) Russia and Ukraine are from a peace deal. * * * Ian notes that Trump’s messaging closely echoed Moscow’s, pointing out that Trump even suggested Putin was “very interested in a strong Ukraine,” a claim Ian says “certainly does not appear to be the case.” The optics mattered too: Zelensky arrived without a red carpet or senior US officials, reinforcing Trump’s view that “Ukraine is not an ally. Zelensky is a supplicant.” Meanwhile, Putin sees little reason to compromise as Russia continues to gain territory and divisions within NATO deepen. The result, Ian warns, is more fighting ahead and a transatlantic alliance that looks increasingly unreliable.

### Trump hails progress after Mar-a-Lago meeting with Zelensky After meeting with Ukrainian President **Volodymyr Zelensky** at his Mar-a-Lago estate on Sunday, US President **Donald Trump** _said_ that Russia and Ukraine are “closer than ever” to a peace deal. Trump had spoken with Russian President **Vladimir Putin** over the phone prior to the meeting. The positive tone comes after Zelensky said Friday he’s _willing to have_ a referendum on the peace plan and is not ruling out territorial concessions – the Ukrainian leader had previously refused these, in line with his country’s constitution. However, some sticking points remain, including the exact nature of any security guarantees that the US will provide Ukraine – Zelensky _said_ Trump offered 15 years of security. Trump acknowledged that it might take a few weeks to close the gaps. Russia’s demands, meanwhile, remain _unchanged_. __Next up at Mar-a-Lago: Israeli Prime Minister__ _**_Benjamin Netanyahu_**_ ___will sit down with___ __Trump this afternoon. The two leaders will discuss the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal, as well as whether to take further actions against Iran. The White House has__ ___accused___ __Netanyahu of slow-walking the Gaza peace process.__ * * * ### Saudi-UAE feud in Yemen escalates A UAE-backed separatist group in Yemen _accused_ Saudi Arabia on Friday of carrying out airstrikes against its forces in the oil-rich region of Hadramout, escalating the proxy battle between the two Gulf giants in the country’s civil war. The Southern Transitional Council (STC) had _seized_ Hadramout earlier this month, breaking a long-running stalemate in the Yemeni conflict – one that also involves the Iran-backed Houthi rebels – and undermining efforts by the Saudi-backed government to regain control. The Kingdom refused to confirm that it carried out last week’s strikes, but a Saudi-owned newspaper reported they were intended to send a message to the resurgent STC. Once allies, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are now on opposite sides not only in Yemen, but also in Sudan’s civil war and the race to develop artificial intelligence. ### Thailand says Cambodia has violated the new ceasefire Well, that didn’t last long. Barely 24 hours after reaching a new ceasefire, Thailand _accused_ Cambodia of breaking the pact by sending a swarm of drones across the border. Bangkok now says it might not honor its pledge to return nearly two dozen Cambodian prisoners of war. The news came after both sides had optimistically _concluded_two days of peace talks hosted by China. The long-running border dispute flared earlier this year, and has since killed over 100 people and displaced more than half a million in both countries. A ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump in October collapsed earlier this month – and China’s latest attempt to stop the fighting looks like it’s off to a shaky start too.

A year ago this month, Syria’s brutal dictatorship collapsed. **Bashar al-Assad** , whose family ruled the country for over 50 years, was ousted, bringing an end to 14-year-long civil war that _left_ hundreds of thousands dead. There are signs of recovery: the UN’s refugee agency _said_ one million refugees and nearly two million internally displaced people have returned home since Assad’s fall, while Syria’s new leadership has brought the country back onto the global stage. Former al-Qaeda commander President **Ahmad al-Sharaa –** who overthrew Assad, and was once designated by Washington designated a terrorist – formed a transitional government promising economic reconstruction, stronger foreign ties, and reconciliation among Syria’s many ethnic minorities. He has debuted at the _United Nations_ and even the _White House_, a historic first for a Syrian leader. And earlier this month, US President **Donald Trump** formally _repealed_ strict sanctions on Syria, potentially unlocking billions in foreign investments. **** * * * **But one year on, the optimism is fragile.** Violence at home threatens to undermine al-Sharaa’s goals. On Dec. 26, a bomb _exploded_ at a mosque in Homs, the country’s third largest city, killing eight worshippers and injuring 18. Protests followed, with thousands of Alawites _demanding_ political reforms and the release of detained community members. _Clashes between protesters and security forces_ have since left four people dead and dozens injured. The incidents are part of a broader pattern of deadly sectarian violence since Syria’s new leaders took power. **New Syria, old problems.** Sectarian tensions have shaped Syrian politics for decades, and were deliberately _stoked_ by the Assad regime as a way to maintain power. Under al-Assad, Syria’s government was dominated by Alawites, the minority sect to which he belongs, while the regime portrayed itself as a protector of minorities against a hostile Sunni majority. Ahmad al-Sharaa has promised a new chapter for Syria – one safe for all communities – but deep divisions have proved hard to overcome. For the first time in more than half a century, power _rests_ with a Sunni leader, worrying the _25% of the population_ who hail from other sects or religions. Alawites, roughly _12%_ of Syrians, say they are being targeted by _al-Sharaa_ supporters for perceived ties to the deposed regime. But the violence cuts both ways: _al-Assad loyalists_, mostly Alawites, launched a series of attacks on government forces in March. Days of retaliatory violence followed, which resulted in the deaths of 1,400 civilians, most of whom were Alawites. Other minorities who’ve faced violence include the Druze, who are openly _calling_ for independence after violent clashes involved government forces in July, and Christians, who _experienced_ a suicide bombing by an Islamist group at church in June. The longstanding conflict between the separatist Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) and the Syrian army has also _persisted_ near the Turkish border, complicating efforts to integrate Kurdish fighters into the national military. **Internal conflicts impact the region.** Turkey has threatened military action unless the SDF _disbands_ and integrates with Syrian state forces by year’s end – a goal unlikely to be met. Israel, meanwhile, has been _supporting_ Druze communities with military equipment and financial assistance due to distrust of al-Sharaa’s intentions. Russia, a staunch backer of the defunct Assad regime, has stepped in to mediate a security agreement between Israel and Syria, after Saudi Arabia warned that Israel’s continued support for the Druze could _jeopardize_ a potential normalization deal between the two. **Overlaying these conflicts is the resurgence of the Islamic State (ISIS).** In November, Syria joined an international coalition of 90 states to combat the militant group. Since then, ISIS has _stepped_ up attacks in the country, and joint operations with US forces have resulted in the killing and arrests of senior ISIS operatives. Just _last Thursday_, Syrian forces claimed to have “neutralized” prominent ISIS leader, **Mohammad Shahada**. Action by Washington followed _a Dec. 13 attack_ in which a suspected ISIS gunman killed three Americans – prompting a confrontation that shows little sign of abating in 2026. One year on, Syria’s post-Assad moment offers hope on paper and headlines abroad – but at home, sectarian scars and resurgent militancy suggest hard tests for the country are still ahead.

**126:** Japan’s birth rate is set to hit its lowest level since record-keeping began _126 years ago_, according to preliminary data. Demographic experts believe there will be fewer than 670,000 newborns in 2025, falling short of even the government’s most pessimistic targets. * * * **13:** A train derailed in the Mexican state of Oaxaca yesterday, tragically killing _at least 13_ of the 250 people aboard. Another five remain in critical condition. The Interoceanic Train links Mexico’s Pacific and Gulf coasts, and its main line came into service in 2023 as a way to promote economic development in southern Mexico. As of Sunday, officials had yet to determine the cause of the accident. **1,500:** At least _1,500 people_ were executed this year in Iran by the start of December, according to the Norwegian-based Iran Human Rights group, with many more killed since. The organization expects the final number for the year to be double last year’s total of 975, emphasizing how the Islamic Republic has _clamped down on dissent_ since the 12-day war with Israel in June. **1:** Sudan’s _brutal civil_ war has reportedly killed hundreds of thousands and displaced eleven million people. However, the nation’s soccer team provided a rare bright spot yesterday, defeating Equatorial Guinea 1-0 in the Africa Cup of Nations – Sudan’s _first win_ in the tournament since 2012. **14,000:** The Philippines produces _14,000 tons_ of ube, a purple yam, each year. That might not be enough to satisfy burgeoning global demand, as Western food makers rely on the yam to make trendy treats like purple-glazed doughnuts, purple-colored lattes, and violet-tinged hot cross buns. As one Philippine official put it: “It’s the new matcha.”

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Gobal attention has been (rightly) focused on Gaza and Ukraine this year, but around 60 conflicts are raging the world. Do they risk falling off the radar? International Crisis Group President and CEO **Comfort Ero** joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to talk about some of the global crises that have received less of the world’s focus this year. Ero cautions that it is important to keep talking about Gaza and Ukraine because what happens in those two conflicts set the precedent for what happens in so many others. But Ero also says there are plenty of places receiving far less attention and concern, despite being just as deadly and devastating. Sudan’s civil war has displaced millions and led to horrific crimes against humanity. In Haiti, gangs have taken over the country almost completely and the government is almost non-functional. The US recently brokered a peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda, but renewed violence in eastern Congo is an alarming sign of just how unstable that conflict is. In Myanmar, the military junta is still entrenched and responsible for aggressive violence against civilians. Could global attention and international outcry help bring crucial peacebuilding efforts to some of the world’s most volatile places? **GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).** ******New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.****Don't miss an episode:****subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel****and turn on notifications (🔔).**

**54:** Japan is reopening the world’s largest nuclear power plant after a regional vote gave the greenlight on Monday. The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant, located 136 miles outside of Tokyo, had its _54 reactors_ shuttered following the 2011 earthquake and tsunami that spurred the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl. The decision reflects Japan’s push to wean itself off of fossil fuels. **** * * * **70%:** We’re not in Missouri anymore, said the Kansas City Chiefs, who announced yesterday that they will move to a new stadium on the Kansas side of the border in 2031. Why the move? Kansas lawmakers offered the team a financing package covering _70%_ of the project’s cost. Not bad when the cost of the new arena is $3 billion. **34:** An Ecuadorean court sentenced 11 soldiers to _more than 34 years_ in prison over the forced disappearance of four boys in the coastal city of Guayaquil last December. The soldiers allegedly seized the boys during an anti-organized crime operation, before beating them and abandoning them south of the city, where they were found dead days later. **11,000:** Roughly _11,000_ new files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein dropped this morning, continuing the US Justice Department’s slow drip of releases after last week’s deadline. The new batch contains references to President Donald Trump and a letter from “A” from “Balmoral” – a royal residence – requesting Epstein’s associate **Ghislaine Maxwell** for “ _inappropriate friends_.” Authorities have not accused Trump of criminal wrongdoing in connection with Epstein, and **Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor** has denied all allegations of sexual abuse. **18%:** The Israeli government plans to shut down _Galei Tzahal,_ the military radio station that commands _18%_ of the national market and is the country’s third-most popular broadcaster. Defense Minister **Israel Katz** said the station, which built a reputation for objective reporting, had aired “divisive content.” Founded in 1950, _Galei Tzahal_ is _set to close_on March 1, 2026.

Before turning to Top Risks 2026,**Ian Bremmer** looks back at how this year’s Top Risks 2025 actually performed. * * * The headline calls proved strong. “G-zero wins” (a world without effective global leadership) played out largely as expected, driven above all by the United States under a second Trump administration. The “Rule of Don,” which warned of a more centralized and politicized US executive branch, also tracked closely with reality. Where the report fell short was in second-order effects. A ceasefire in Ukraine never materialized. Iran weakened geopolitically but remained internally stable. And US–China relations broke down sharply but far more briefly than expected, as Trump ultimately backed off once Beijing hit back. To see the entire 2025 Top Risks report from Eurasia Group, go here: https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/top-risks-2025

### Group of Yemeni ministers announce support for UAE-backed rebel coalition In the latest twist to Yemen’s decade-long civil war, a group of government ministers declared support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), a rebel group that broke the war’s deadlock earlier this month by _seizing control_ of the oil-rich Handramout region. Yemen’s de facto leader Rashad al-Alimi denounced the declaration, likely because the STC wants an independent state in the south. The move threatens to deepen regional rifts. Saudi Arabia – whose rivalry with the UAE has been _escalating_ – has long supported the Yemeni government, while Iran is likely to worry that the Houthis, one of its few remaining successful proxy groups, will face pressure from a _surging_ STC. * * * ### US carries out surveillance over Nigeria The US has been flying surveillance missions over Nigeria since November, following a surge in violence across the country, Reuters reported yesterday. President **Donald Trump** has threatened to intervene over what he called a failure to stop attacks targeting Christians, but Nigerian officials say that the security situation is more complex. What's more, the violence is often driven as much by competition over dwindling resources as religious divisions – and it’s not just against Christians. Nigeria’s President **Bola Tinubu** declared a state of emergency last month and ordered a mass recruitment of security forces. US surveillance signals an effort by Washington to reestablish its military presence in West Africa after being pushed out of Niger last year, when authorities ordered US troops to leave an air base and turned to Russia for security assistance instead. ### Myanmar to hold elections amid concerns over forced voting Thousands have _fled_ villages in Myanmar after the Burmese military bombed areas to retake territory from rebels ahead of the Dec. 28 election. Many have crossed the border to neighboring India. The displaced report feeling forced to vote, effectively legitimizing a cruel and repressive military government, or facing torture and imprisonment if they abstain. The election is being called a sham by rebel groups, who are continuing to fight the military junta in the Chin state, since nearly all opposition leaders have been thrown in jail.

Every January, Eurasia Group, GZERO’s parent company, unveils a forecast of the top 10 geopolitical risks for the world in the year ahead, authored by EG President _**Ian Bremmer**_**** and EG Chairman _**Cliff Kupchan**_. The 2026 report drops on Monday, January 5. Before looking forward, though, it’s worth looking back. Here’s how the 2025 Top Risks report stacked up – where it hit the mark and where it missed. You can read the _full report here_. * * * ### 1. The G-Zero Wins **The Argument:** The G-Zero problem, a dangerous lack of international leadership, will get a lot worse in 2025. Bremmer and Kupchan told us to expect new and expanding power vacuums, emboldened rogue actors, and a heightened risk of dangerous accidents, miscalculations, and conflict as a result of a deepening geopolitical recession. **The Verdict:** This was an easy call 12 months ago, and US President **Donald Trump** ’s determination to challenge so many multilateral institutions, US rivals, and even allies intensified disruption in the international system. Yet the risk was tempered mainly by the unwillingness of so many conflict-averse governments to push back. It will be especially interesting to see if the upcoming 2026 report thinks this risk avoidance will continue as Trump’s domestic standing faces new pressures. ### 2. Rule of Don **The Argument:** Emboldened by the scale of his 2024 election victory and the support of a unified Republican Party, the 2025 report forecast that Trump would purge the federal bureaucracy of professional civil servants and replace them with political loyalists, challenge independent checks on executive power, and undermine the rule of law. Bremmer and Kupchan did not claim these moves would threaten the survival of American democracy, but warned they would set dangerous new precedents in “political vandalism” for future presidents of both parties. **The Verdict:** The report’s authors were right to claim that Trump’s push to expand his power at the expense of US institutions and norms would not threaten democracy itself. But the push itself was undeniable in 2025 — and 2026 is an election year. ### 3. US-China Breakdown **The Argument:** The report predicted that Trump’s return to office would unleash an “unmanaged decoupling in the world’s most important geopolitical relationship that risked a major economic disruption and a broader crisis.” Technology policy, Bremmer and Kupchan argued, would be the frontline in this conflict. **The Verdict:** This was the least accurate prediction in the 2025 report. Not because the US and China didn’t begin 2025 with an alarming confrontation on trade, but because China’s willingness to flex its muscles with restrictions on the export of critical minerals — and Trump’s recognition that the resulting economic and security risk for the United States was real — led the two sides to better manage their growing tensions. Nothing has been resolved in the US-China rivalry, but in 2025, Beijing and Washington each decided that direct conflict was a bad idea. ### 4. Trumponomics **The Argument:** The report warned that Trump’s policies would bring higher inflation and lower growth in 2025 as the president significantly hiked tariffs. It predicted a stronger dollar, which would make US exports less competitive. Bremmer and Kupchan also argued that Trump’s push to reduce illegal immigration and carry out mass deportations would shrink the US workforce, drive up wages and consumer prices, and curb the productive capacity of the economy. **The Verdict:** The report was right that Trump’s tariffs, his pressure on the Federal Reserve, and other controversial economic choices would generate plenty of anxiety. But the dollar has fallen in 2025, and Bremmer and Kupchan overestimated the bad impact of Trump’s policies on a US economy that continues to benefit from surging investment in AI and other emerging technologies. An interesting question for the 2026 report: Is that respite about to expire? ### 5. Russia still Rogue **The Argument:** The report warned that even if a ceasefire in Ukraine occurred, Russian President **Vladimir Putin** would order hostile actions against EU countries with cyber, sabotage, and other “asymmetric attacks,” and build on its strategic military partnership with Iran and North Korea in 2025. **The Verdict:** This was another easy call. The predicted ceasefire never materialized in 2025, but Russia’s increasingly aggressive actions against NATO countries this year and its use of Iranian drones and North Korean soldiers made this risk prescient. ### 6. Iran on the Ropes **The Argument:** The report argued that Iran’s weakness would keep the Middle East volatile in 2025, for one big reason: Iran's geopolitical position had been dealt a series of devastating blows in 2024 and hadn't been so weak in decades. Any Iranian move that raised alert levels in Israel, Bremmer and Kupchan insisted, would provoke swift American and Israeli strikes. **The Verdict:** This prediction was dead on the money. While Iran’s government faced fewer challenges at home than the report suggested, the 12-day war in 2025 made this risk one of the most accurate in the report. ### 7. Beggar thy World **The Argument:** The 2025 report forecast that the US and China would inject disruption into the global economy, short-circuiting the world’s recovery from pandemic-era distortions and other forces. Chinese factories, the authors noted, were churning out far more cars, solar panels, and electronics than the domestic market can absorb, leading China to try to dump them abroad. They also forecast that Trump would try to use tariffs to punish what he viewed as “unfair” practices, pouring fuel on an already combustible economic relationship. **The Verdict:** As with Top Risk #3 (US-China breakdown), the economic distortions created by the US, China, and their rivalry proved less destructive than feared in 2025. Yet, the world still needed the consistently low oil price that Bremmer and Kupchan correctly predicted to avoid more damage to the economies of other countries and the political standing of their governments. ### 8. AI Unbound **The Argument:** Bremmer and Kupchan cautioned that as AI’s power and capabilities grew in 2025, most governments would opt for light-touch regulation and downplay the need for international cooperation to manage risks. As a result, efforts to create guardrails against unintended consequences would not keep pace with technological advances. **The Verdict:** This is the report’s toughest risk to evaluate, because so much AI development occurs out of view. But China’s ability to force the Trump administration to allow the export of chips and the Communist Party’s ability to manage any risk of AI disruption to its politics suggests this forecast may have been a bit early. ### 9. Ungoverned Spaces **The Argument:** The G-Zero lack of international leadership, the report forecast, would create vacuums that allow for greater geopolitical conflict, disruption, instability, while emboldening rogue-state and non-state actors to create new risks in outer space, under the sea, and in international airspace. Intensifying problems like global hunger, poverty, violence, and refugee flows would receive fewer resources. **The Verdict:** The Trump administration accelerated this risk in some areas while moderating it in others. On the one hand, Trump’s scale-back on contributions to international organizations that help cope with these problems and of direct US foreign aid have made matters worse. But the president’s readiness to use US leverage to halt fighting in multiple parts of the world minimized some of the fallout. ### 10. Mexican Standoff **The Argument:** Bremmer and Kupchan forecast that Mexico’s President **Claudia Sheinbaum** and her Morena party would face formidable challenges in relations with the United States in 2025, amid ongoing constitutional overhauls and fiscal stresses at home. **The Verdict:** 2025 proved to be a complex year for Sheinbaum’s new government, but the report underestimated her personal skill in managing relationships with President Trump. That said, it won’t get easier in 2026. _Have a look at thefull report to judge for yourself, and we look forward to sharing the 2026 forecast on Monday, January 5._

Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire in October, so why is the IDF still preventing foreign journalists from entering Gaza? CNN Chief International Correspondent **Clarissa Ward** joined **Ian Bremmer** on GZERO World to discuss her reporting from conflict zones this year and said that a major challenge has been covering the realities in the Palestinian territory. Ward and other foreign media work closely with Palestinian journalists, but she says that nothing compares to “having your own two feet on the ground” and being able to verify stories independently. * * * While journalists have been allowed to go into the IDF-controlled “yellow zone,” which covers part of Gaza, they must be embedded with the IDF and are prevented from talking to Palestinians. IDF officials say that ongoing security challenges mean that allowing foreign press in on their own is too much of a risk. But fighting and deadly strikes are much less frequent after the ceasefire was put in place, reducing security risks. So why are members of the media still being prevented from independent reporting on the ground firsthand? “By not allowing journalists in, you are lending credence to the idea that this whole thing has never been about security,” says Ward, “It has been about trying to hide away from the eyes of the world the devastations and horrors that have been taking place.” **GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).** ******New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.****Don't miss an episode:****subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel****and turn on notifications (🔔).**

**Ian Bremmer** breaks down the steady escalation of US pressure on Venezuela and why direct military action is now a real possibility. Over recent months, the **Trump** administration has tightened sanctions, seized oil tankers, shut down Venezuelan airspace, targeted drug trafficking routes, and deployed growing military assets to the region. Ian explains that this slow, deliberate buildup suggests Washington is preparing for strikes unless President **Nicolás Maduro** is forced out first. * * * Trump’s goal, Ian says, is to remove Maduro without putting US troops on the ground, ideally by pressuring Venezuela’s military to turn on him. The strategy carries risks: civilian casualties, increased migration, and long-term damage to Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. But with limited international pushback and strong support among Trump’s base, Ian argues the White House is likely to push further. Unless Maduro exits under pressure, Ian warns, US strikes inside Venezuela now look increasingly likely.

As GZERO readers will be all too aware, 2025 has been a hefty year for geopolitics. US President **Donald Trump** ’s return to office has rocked global alliances, conflicts have raged from Khartoum to Kashmir, and new powers – both tangible and technological – have emerged. To put a bow on the year, GZERO highlights the biggest geopolitics stories of 2025. **** * * * **Trump’s trade war brings turbulence, but not dominance** Remember “Liberation Day”? That was when Trump _unveiled_ sweeping tariffs on countries from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe, pushing the US’s average import tax rate to its highest levels _since_ the 1930s. The shock was real, but not ruinous. Tariffs threatened, but _didn’t break_ the global economy. Diplomatic ties were tested, supply chains _became_ battlegrounds, and a tit-for-tat trade war with China exposed just how reliant the world is on Beijing. Trump threatened tariffs on Chinese products between 25% to 145%, _shaking_ financial markets. China countered with _strict export controls_ on critical rare-earth minerals and _stopped_ purchases of soybeans cold turkey, rattling American farmers. An October _truce_eased tensions, but has not lessened China’s industrial chokehold. Tariffs have _not_ sparked the American manufacturing boom Trump promised. China, on the other hand, reported a _7% increase_ in manufacturing output in the first 10 months of this year, and a _record $1 trillion_ global trade surplus, suggesting the pain landed unevenly, and mostly outside Beijing. Meanwhile, Trump’s authority to use tariffs awaits a Supreme Court _decision_ expected early next month. **AI’s big breakout year** Just three years since most of us first heard about generative AI tools like ChatGPT, more than _1.2 billion people_ now use artificial intelligence regularly. It’s the fastest-growing technology in history, outpacing the adoption of smartphones and the Internet itself. But that growth has been uneven, and heavily weighted toward the wealthiest countries. Among the poorest countries within the Global South, less than 10% of the population use AI. Further, it’s impossible to incorporate AI into your life or work when you’re one of the _2.6 billion people_ who don’t even have Internet access. While AI could contribute as much as _$15 trillion to global GDP_ by 2030, very few countries are positioned to benefit from it. This creates geopolitical risk, and a major story to watch in 2026 as nations vie for investment in infrastructure, data storage, and adequate training for their workers. **The world’s worst humanitarian crisis is just getting worse** For the third year in a row, the International Rescue Committee has _named_ Sudan’s civil war as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. The reasons are stark: the war has _claimed_ the lives of an estimated 400,000 people and displaced eleven million, and there are repeated reports of _genocide_ in Darfur. The vicious conflict shows no signs of abating. In the spring, the Sudanese army appeared to be making progress, _retaking_ the capital Khartoum from the Rapid Support Forces, the main rebel group. But momentum has shifted, with the RSF _seizing control_ of el-Fasher earlier this month. Outside efforts to stop the war so far have been fruitless, as _revenge_, death, and anarchy reign supreme on the banks of the River Nile. **Israel shows its might** The Jewish state has been involved in two wars and three ceasefires this year, with huge ramifications for power dynamics in the Middle East. The first ceasefire with Hamas, brokered in January, lasted all of two months. The second, announced in October, is tentatively holding. The terms of it, though, appear to favor the Israelis, forcing Hamas to disarm while a western-led group seeks to take _interim control_ of the battered enclave. Israel’s other war, which the US joined, was the 12-day conflict with Iran in June. It was in this battle that Israel demonstrated its _military dominance_ in the region, clipping back the country considered to be its greatest competitor in the region. Several leading Iranian nuclear scientists were _assassinated_, Tehran was battered, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah **Ali Khamenei** was forced into hiding. With its proxy network (Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime in Syria) in tatters, Iran’s response was limited in its potency. With this war, Israel’s military has become the most feared in the Middle East. The Middle East, experts believe, has been _fundamentally reshaped_. **Climate policy suffers one-two punch** When the world’s biggest philanthropist changes his mind about where to put his money, people pay attention. In October, **Bill Gates** , who has poured billions into the effort to tackle climate change, _published an essay_ arguing that disease and poverty – other major focuses of his work – are pressing challenges which deserve more attention now. His call for this “strategic pivot” came as the United Nations _said_ the world had failed to meet the emissions targets of the Paris Agreement after 10 years of trying. With a strongly climate-skeptic administration back in power in the world’s largest economy, and the planet’s leading private-sector activist shifting his emphasis elsewhere, 2025 will be remembered as a significant turning point in the global debate about the tradeoffs and aims of climate policy. **Ukraine war persists, the transatlantic alliance unravels** Trump has made peace deals a hallmark of his first year back in office, brokering temporary ceasefires between Israel and Hamas, Thailand and Cambodia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. Ending the war in Ukraine, however, has proved far more elusive. The White House has alternated between _echoing_ elements of Russia’s demands and acknowledging Ukraine’s non-negotiables. At their core, the two sides’ objectives remain fundamentally incompatible, with Russia demanding Ukraine give up the Donbas and never join NATO, while Ukraine is against territorial concessions or peace without security guarantees. At the same time, Washington’s efforts to push Kyiv toward negotiations, in its _haste_ to get a deal done regardless of the consequences, and pressure on Europe to take responsibility for its own security, may have ruptured the relationship between the US and the European Union. Those concerns deepened after the release of the latest _US National Security Strategy_, which took a more adversarial tone toward the EU. For Europe, the implication is stark: the EU may need to prepare for a reality where America is no longer a reliable security partner, and longstanding assumptions about the transatlantic alliance no longer hold. **Venezuela and the return of the Monroe Doctrine** The Trump administration’s military buildup around Venezuela signals a renewed willingness to threaten regime change in America’s backyard. The country’s president, **Nicolás Maduro,** is a dictator, but past US-led interventions in the region have struggled to produce stable, democratic outcomes – most notably the CIA intervention in Chile in 1970, which created the conditions for **Augusto Pinochet’s** _dictatorship_.**** What’s striking is how Trump’s posture toward Venezuela fits into a broader shift in US foreign policy. As Washington steps back from Europe, it is placing renewed emphasis on the Western Hemisphere as a core strategic focus – an approach that echoes the Monroe Doctrine in practice, if not in name. From Venezuela to tariffs on Brazil over former President **Jair Bolsonaro’** s conviction, to threats to cut off aid if the right-wing candidate didn’t win Honduras’s recent election, the White House is once again acting to support ideological allies and undermine opponents, and intervene militarily when deemed necessary. **A growing power charts its next steps carefully** India’s global influence is burgeoning. It recently became the world’s most populous country, its economy is _set to surpass_ Japan’s to become the fourth-largest in the world, and US firms – including tech giants like _Apple_ – are _increasingly turning_ to the South Asian behemoth for its business needs. With this _growth_ comes a larger role in geopolitical issues. Over the past three years, for example, India has started buying _huge amounts_ of Russian oil, helping the Kremlin to maintain its finances during its war in Ukraine. But with whom does India align? Officially, New Delhi has a policy of _non-alignment_. But in practice, there are signs of shifts. India was a historic ally of Russia, especially during the Soviet era. But its increasing business relationship with the United States has brought it a little closer to the West – this year’s _tariff battle_ between Delhi and Washington notwithstanding. That realignment now appears to include heeding to months of US pressure to halt its purchases of Russian oil. As India’s influence continues to grow – and China contends with _severe population decline_ – the world will be watching closely to see Delhi’s next moves.

### Ukraine takes the war to Moscow Ukrainian intelligence services assassinated a _senior_Russian general on the streets of Moscow on Monday, detonating a bomb strapped to his car. The killing marks a symbolic win for Ukraine, displaying its ability to bring the war to top Kremlin officials in the capital city. Asymmetric warfare was also on display over the weekend, when Ukraine _struck_ a tanker allegedly linked to Russia’s shadow fleet in the Mediterranean. The attacks followed **Vladimir Putin** ’s _news conference_ on Friday, in which he showed no signs of readiness to end the war. * * * ### Cambodia-Thailand talks set for Xmas eve The two Southeast Asian nations will _hold_ peace talks this Wednesday as fresh border clashes between them stretch into their third week. Earlier this year, long-running tensions over the frontier triggered several weeks of violence until a ceasefire was brokered by the Trump administration in October. That agreement has since fallen apart, prompting fresh diplomatic _efforts from China_ and the wider ASEAN regional grouping, led by Malaysia. The conflict has _already displaced_ more than 150,000 people, with at least 80 dead in the most recent flare-up. Will the Christmas Eve talks bring a gift of peace? ### Could a suspected Islamic State attack push Syrian groups to make a deal? The US _launched_ strikes against the Islamic State group in Syria after three Americans were killed during an ambush last week. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, but early intelligence assessments suggest it was carried out by Islamic State. The suspected attack could have wider implications: it may push Syria’s army to join forces with the Syrian Defense Forces, a US-backed Kurdish group, as a way to deal with its challenging _security issues_. Turkish officials _head to_ Damascus today to try to push the long-sought deal between these one-time rivals. But obstacles remain: the SDF wants clarity on who will govern the areas it controls in northeastern Syria. Could the threat of IS finally create the conditions for a deal?

**** **1:** French President**Emmanuel Macron** announced plans to build France’s _first_ aircraft carrier in decades, as Europe accelerates rearmament. The ship won’t be ready before 2038. Germany, similarly, plans to recruit 80,000 troops and spend up to 3.5% of GDP on defense by 2029. * * * **130:** Another _130 students and staff_ abducted by gunmen at a Catholic boarding school in central Nigeria last month have now been freed, the Nigerian government said Sunday. It’s not clear if some staff members remain captive. Africa’s most populous nation has _faced_ a surge of violence this year, affecting schools and farmers alike. **30:** See ya later, New York City’s MetroCard. After _30 years_ and 3.2 billion used cards, the city’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority will transition to an exclusively digital tap-and-go pay system for subway riders, come Jan. 1. It comes as more cities around the world turn to “frictionless” digital systems meant to speed up everyday life. **347:** Saudi Arabia carried out a record _347_ executions in 2025, marking a second consecutive year of record-high numbers and intensifying its crackdown on dissent. Among those executed were a journalist and two young men who were convicted of protest-related crimes dating back to when they were children. Most executions, though, were for drug-related convictions.

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While Gaza and Ukraine captured headlines this year, nearly 60 other wars and armed struggles are raging around the world—the most active conflicts since the end of WWII. On GZERO World, **Ian Bremmer** is joined by CNN's Chief International Correspondent **Clarissa Ward** and **Comfort Ero** , President and CEO of the International Crisis Group to look back on the conflicts that defined our world in 2025, both the headline-making wars and the ones the world overlooked. * * * Ward spent much of her time in conflict zones this year, covering the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and the rebuilding of Syria after the fall of Assad. She says that international journalists are still not being allowed into most of Gaza, despite the ceasefire, making it hard to platform Palestinian voices and convey the reality of the situation on the ground. Ero says it’s important to keep talking about Ukraine and Gaza, but the world is paying far less attention to conflicts in places like Sudan, Myanmar, Haiti, the DR Congo, and Cambodia. She also warns that 2026 could bring new wars, like in the South China Sea, where China is building up military capabilities for a potential invasion of Taiwan. “I think people are feeling overwhelmed by the number of conflicts that they are expected to care about, know about. It feels like overwhelm and overload,” Ward tells Bremmer, “I try to mitigate that by finding human stories that move you to feel empathy.” **GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).** ******New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.****Don't miss an episode:****subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel****and turn on notifications (🔔).**

This week, instead of zooming in on a single conflict, the GZERO World Podcast looks back on 2025 and takes stock of a world increasingly defined by conflict. **Ian Bremmer** sits down with CNN Chief International Correspondent **Clarissa Ward** and **Comfort Ero** , President and CEO of the International Crisis Group to look at some of the biggest crises of 2025–-both the headline making wars and the ones the world overlooked. * * * Gaza and Ukraine captured the world’s attention this year. But at the same time, around 60 other armed conflicts and struggles have been raging around the world. It’s the most active period of conflict since the end of World War II. Some are decades-long battles, like Myanmar’s devastating civil war. Others are more recent, like the surge of terrorist insurgent groups in Africa’s Sahel. But each is a symptom of a broader global order breaking down—driven by weakening institutions, regional rivalries, climate shocks, and failing states. Bremmer sits down first with Clarissa Ward, to discuss her reporting from war zones around the world and then with Comfort Ero, for a global perspective on the conditions that have created so much strife. “I think it's important not to stop talking about Ukraine and Gaza because what happens there in those two conflicts set the precedent for other places,” Ero tells Bremmer. _Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on_ _Apple Podcasts_ _,__Spotify_ _,__Stitcher_ ___, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published_

Why is global conflict surging? On Ian Explains, **Ian Bremmer** takes a look at the major wars and armed struggles taking place in a world that’s becoming more fractured, more volatile, and increasingly defined by hostility. While there were some breakthroughs in 2025—a shaky ceasefire in Gaza, averting a possible war between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan—the fact is that right now, the world is experiencing nearly 60 wars and armed conflicts. The most since the end of World War II. * * * President Trump has called himself the “Peace President” and spent much of his diplomatic energy this year striking peace deals in some of the world’s crises, claiming to have solved “8 of the 9 wars.” But recent clashes on the Thailand-Cambodia border as well as renowned violence in eastern Congo have observers worried some of the White House deals may not stick. Meanwhile, fighting rages on in places like Sudan, Myanmar, the Red Sea, and Africa’s Sahel region. Are they isolated crises or symptoms of a global order breaking down? **GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).** **New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode:****subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel****and turn on notifications (🔔).**

A year into US President **Donald Trump’** s second term, America’s immigration policy has undergone one of its most sweeping resets in decades. Unauthorized border crossings are at _50 year-lows_. While the administration says its focus is the “worst of the worst” criminals, immigration enforcement has _expanded_to include all undocumented immigrants, with the _goal_of deporting the most people on record. * * * At the same time, the administration tightened legal immigration as well, citing national security. It _paused_all active asylum cases, and signaled it may review some asylum cases granted during **Joe Biden** ’s administration. Temporary protected status, which allows migrants from certain countries in turmoil to live and work in the US, has been _revoked_for at least 675,000 people. The administration also set _a cap_ of 7,500 refugees in fiscal year 2026, which began in July – the lowest in US history. Together, the changes mark a shift away from humanitarian protection and legal pathways and toward a system defined largely by enforcement. To learn more about what this dramatic immigration reset means for the US and for the world, GZERO spoke this week with **Leon Rodriguez** , the former head of US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) under former President **Barack Obama** – an agency that manages legal immigration into the US, including applications for citizenship, green cards, asylum, and refugee resettlement. He questions Trump’s decision to _revoke_deportation protections for Venezuelans and says the Obama administration could have done more to create pathways for people to find safe harbor and work in the United States. Read our full interview below, which has been lightly edited for brevity and clarity. **The US has accepted migrants who would be identified as refugees under modern international laws for close to 80 years now. The number of those admitted has fluctuated from year to year – but they’ve nonetheless continued to be admitted. Why, in your view, has that system endured for so long?** The modern refugee program was started right after World War II, and it was the result of the persecution of many different peoples during the course of the war. This became, for many years, a standard thing, not just by the United States, but by a number of other countries throughout the world that were willing both to accept refugees and to recognize the right of asylum for people who feared going back to their own countries. I think that's just been a fundamental national value. We're the nation of the Statue of Liberty and Emma Lazarus's poem. That was built into our national identity in terms of how we saw ourselves as Americans. That's something that has been culturally challenged in the last 15 years to 20 years. In a way, that has led to some of the kinds of things that you're now seeing the Trump administration do. Asylum and refugee admission have long been part of how the United States exercises its foreign policy, and how we respond to various crises. Fully dialing them back is a different formulation - and represents a retreat from how we exercised our foreign policy historically. **One change the Trump administration has made is to strip 675,000 people of Temporary Protected Status (TPS), which allows migrants from certain countries in crisis to live and work in the US. The White House has revoked it for at least 675,000 people on national security grounds.** **TPS advocates say it's inhumane to send people back to countries where they might face violence or turmoil. But the Trump administration says recent TPS designations are security risks, and that “temporary” status shouldn’t be a de facto permanent anyway. What’s your thought on that?** Temporary protected status is by its very legal definition, temporary. It only lasts for 18 months at a time. I do see that in most of the cases with which I am familiar, there are good reasons to conclude that people are not able to safely return to those countries. The example that just baffles me completely is the fact that first on the chopping block was Venezuela, which the administration has declared a narco state and is engaging militarily with ships and boats coming from Venezuela, and demanding that their president resign. But even under those circumstances, it is declaring that Venezuela is safe to return for the people who are currently seeking or have been in temporary protected status in the United States. One of the interesting aspects about Venezuela’s TPS is that literally one of Trump’s very last acts in his first administration was to _extend_a benefit called the _Deferred Extended Departure_ to Venezuelan nationals. It’s similar to TPS, but doesn't have the same formalities. It’s also grounded in the foreign policy authority of the United States. That move came on January 19th, right before President Trump left office and Joe Biden took over as president. **Traditionally the USCIS, which you ran, has focused on ways that people can lawfully immigrate and stay in the country. During his Senate confirmation, the current director of USCIS, Joseph Edlow,_said_that “at its core, the USCIS must be an immigration enforcement agency.” What do you make of that kind of rhetorical shift?** I think it's exactly that. It's a rhetorical shift. The USCIS is an adjudication agency. It's not an enforcement agency. That doesn't mean that it doesn't have enforcement powers. It doesn't mean that it doesn't collaborate with other agencies that have immigration, law enforcement powers, but its adjudication function is really necessary to our way of life as a country. It is how we get talented people into the United States. It is how to build our economy and help it thrive. It's how we help families to unite. It's how we provide protection to people from places that are experiencing various sorts of crises. There is always going to be an enforcement dimension to those things, but to not recognize that part of the function is to get the people into the United States who help build our country, who are victims of persecution, who mark us as a country that respects family. The fact that’s not part of the rhetoric, for me, is problematic. It's not how I would want to see the agency's mission framed. Our country benefits from immigration. We benefit economically, we benefit culturally, we benefit morally in terms of our faith values as a country. The saying that I always used to hear when we trained was “the right benefit to the right person at the right time.” It's certainly true that USCIS administers the law, but the idea of calling it primarily a law enforcement agency presumes that its only function is to combat violations. That is one purpose of the agency, but it's also to facilitate the admission of people we've decided legally deserve to be here. **During the Obama administration, the country saw the _highest number_ of deportations on record. Trump could _break_that record soon. Do you think the Obama administration could have done anything differently in hindsight? ** That's something that I think about all the time, because clearly part of Donald Trump’s election was a comment on what we had done in the Obama administration. A big part of me wishes we had done more - rather than the argument that we should have been tougher or more restrictive – I actually feel like we should have had more legal pathways for people to find protection and find work in the United States. That’s always where I personally end up. We definitely don't want irregular immigration. It's dangerous for the people making that trip to the US. It puts a lot of pressure on our country. What we could have done better is to create more legal pathways for people to get here.

### Australia launches gun buyback after Bondi Beach shooting The Australian government _announced_a plan to purchase and destroy civilian-owned firearms after a _terrorist attack_ left 15 people dead at a Jewish holiday gathering on Sydney’s Bondi Beach. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says hundreds of thousands of guns will be taken off the streets under the program, which tasks states and territories to distribute payments to people who surrender their firearms. Australia already has some of the _strictest_ gun laws and lowest homicide rates in the world. It launched a similar buyback program after a 1996 mass shooting killed 35 people in Tasmania, the country’s deadliest massacre to date. Australia _estimates_650,000 firearms – both banned and legal – were surrendered as part of the effort. Other countries have instituted their own buyback programs in recent years, with mixed results. Both _Canada_and _New Zealand_ saw tens of thousands of firearms surrendered, but critics said they could be a fraction of illegal weapons in the countries. * * * ### EU to loan Ukraine $105 billion, without frozen Russian assets European leaders agreed to back a $105 billion, two-year loan for Ukraine using the EU budget – rather than frozen Russian assets – as collateral. The last-minute collapse of the asset plan exposed divisions within the bloc, with Belgium in particular warning it would undermine its credibility as an international banking hub. That concern pushed leaders toward an alternative that is likely costlier, less flexible, and dependent on taxpayer dollars – leaving the government vulnerable to domestic backlash. Still, leaders framed the agreement as a necessary step to meet Kyiv’s urgent financial needs in 2026 and support it as it negotiates peace terms. ### China vs the US in Latin America We already know how the Trump Administration views its role in Latin America: the White House’s new national security strategy, issued to much fanfare earlier this month, declared that the US rules the roost in the Western hemisphere, and pledged specifically to stamp out Chinese influence. But just days later, China quietly issued its own regional framework, the first in almost a decade. Without naming names, Beijing decries “unilateral bullying,”pledges support for free trade and investment, and styles itself as a reliable long-term development ally. China surpassed the US as the region’s largest trade and investment partner some 15 years ago. With Trump flexing muscle to roll that back, countries in the region will now find themselves in even stiffer crosswinds between the world’s two largest economies.

**$753 million:** Angola secured _$753 million_ in loans from the US and South Africa to revamp a railway line linking mining regions in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia. For Washington, the investment is strategic: the Lobito corridor offers the shortest route from the DRC’s copper and cobalt belt to Atlantic shipping lanes, helping secure critical mineral supplies and counter China’s influence in Africa. Zambia and the DRC _make 13%_of the world’s copper, but exports can take weeks to reach ports. * * * **30:** Last month, **Donald Trump** signed a law requiring the Justice Department release the remaining files on convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein within _30 days_, a deadline they won’t meet today. The DOJ said that while “several hundred thousand will be released” today, more will be released in the coming weeks. **0.75:** The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to _0.75%_ – their highest level since 1995 – signaling confidence that Japan can sustain 2% inflation and strong wage growth. However, under a new administration, the central bank offered little guidance on future hikes, disappointing markets and sending the yen lower despite higher bond yields. **2:** US President **Donald Trump** issued an executive order establishing _two_new federal holidays this year – Christmas Eve and the day after Christmas. Federal agencies will close up shop for three days, as will GZERO Daily! Happy holidays to all.

**500:** By the end of the year,**** Germany plans to accept over 500 Afghan refugees who assisted German troops on the ground in Afghanistan, or face threats from the Taliban. Although these refugees have already been approved for admission, Chancellor **Friedrich Merz** ’s coalition government delayed their entry into the country. **** * * * **662 million:****** Under current trends, China’s population is set to plummet over the rest of the century: The US Census Bureau’s global projections say it will fall from 1.4 billion to 662 million by 2100. It’s no surprise, then, that China plans to start imposing a tax on condoms and other contraceptives on Jan. 1. **27:****** Brazil’s Congress passed a bill reducing jail time for former President **Jair Bolsonaro** , who was sentenced to 27 years in jail for plotting a coup to overturn the 2022 elections. The measure now goes to President **Luiz Inácio** **Lula da Silva** , who plans to veto it, though lawmakers may override it. **48:****** There are 48 spots at next year’s FIFA World Cup – the largest in history. Yet Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, is going to miss out after it lost on penalties to the Democratic Republic of the Congo last month. However, Abuja has since launched a complaint, arguing that the DRC fielded players who have European passports, even though the DRC itself forbids dual citizenship. Some of those players switched national teams during their careers, and FIFA requires them to hold a passport from their new country. Did the DRC break its own laws, or FIFA’s?

Less than one day after US President Donald Trump declared a military blockade of sanctioned oil tankers from Venezuela, he addressed the nation during a rare primetime speech – but didn’t talk about Venezuela. Instead, he touted the economy, arguing that it’s doing better than many Americans believe it is. “Boy, are we making progress,” Trump said during his 18-minute address at the White House. By some marks, that rings true. Gas prices are down nearly 40% from their _2022 peak_. The stock market is _up_, despite a brief shock after he unveiled sweeping tariffs. Long-awaited data from the Labor Department this morning _showed_ inflation easing, continuing its _downward trend_ from its post-pandemic high. * * * But in the year since Trump has re-taken office, Americans aren’t feeling that promise materialize – despite the economic markers the president points to. Trump campaigned on a “Golden Age” of America, lowering the cost of living and everyday goods. The latest polling, though, _shows_ just 36% of voters approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, the lowest rating he’s gotten on the issue in either of his terms. Former President Joe Biden faced a similar conundrum in office, _trying to sell_ the public the economy by pointing to opaque data that didn’t line up with how Americans felt. He pointed to a strong stock market, _falling_unemployment, and of course, inflation ticking down. “Facts are stubborn things,” Biden said during a speech a month before leaving office. “They’re not political or rhetorical opinions. They’re just facts.” But the fact of the matter is Americans lived through the most inflationary period in decades, and the impact on prices are still reverberating. The country saw the cost of an average Christmas -- think dinner, transport, and gifts -- spike as much as 10% between 2021 and 2022, and prices are significantly higher than they were during Trump’s first term. Today, nearly 65% of Americans say they’re frustrated by rising prices, despite the inflation rate coming down. One solution to make people feel better about the economy Trump has floated is to write checks, one for military personnel for _$1,776_ (a nod to the country’s 250th birthday next year) and another for the general public from _tariff revenue_. Whether cash bonuses will assuage the country’s big-picture concerns about the cost of living remains to be seen. For now, when it comes to the economy, Trump is sounding an awful lot like his predecessor.

### Pakistani-Afghan rift gives India an opening Indian Prime Minister **Narendra Modi** isn’t necessarily known as the greatest friend of Muslim people, yet his own government is now seeking to build bridges with Afghanistan’s Islamist leaders, the Taliban. New Delhi is seeking to capitalize on the _rift_ between Pakistan and Afghanistan, two former allies, by _offering the Taliban trade routes_ out of its landlocked country without having to go through Pakistani territory, specifically through Chabahar, a free port located in Iran. India has invested heavily in this port, and has been helped by the US waiving sanctions on it in October. India still doesn’t formally recognize the Taliban regime, but recent bilateral engagement suggests that business could trump politics. * * * ### China tries to patch up the Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire Amid fresh border clashes between the two Southeast Asian nations, China is making a new push for peace, holding talks with both sides on Thursday. The dispute dates back more than a century, but July saw the deadliest clashes in at least a decade with dozens killed, and more than 150,000 displaced. A botched response to the crisis even ended up costing the Thai PM her job. The Trump Administration in October brokered a ceasefire, but that’s collapsed in recent days, despite _his claims_ to have reached a fresh agreement. Will China — now the largest trade partner and _arms supplier_ to both countries — have better luck? ### US gives Taiwan a $11 billion Christmas present The Trump administration announced a record _$11.1 billion_ arms package for Taiwan, the largest ever US weapons sale to the island, amid rising military pressure from China. The deal includes HIMARS rocket systems, drones, artillery weapons, and anti-tank missiles, backing Taiwan’s shift toward asymmetric warfare in the case of a Chinese attack. It comes as the Trump administration pushes its allies to up their military capabilities so they can defend themselves, but it's also a boon to the US defense industry, which will supply the arms.