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A key question this year is just how much of US economic growth has come from tech investment, aka the AI boom. The net contribution of the tech to real GDP growth is a bit more than a third YTD. But consumer spending, a bigger part of GDP, has weakened, in effect making tech's contribution larger.

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Milei vowed to tame Argentina’s chronic inflation. Central to his efforts were austerity measures and a strong peso. While successful in bringing down inflation, the government failed to build up its scarce forex reserves while propping up the peso. Can a lifeline from the US help break the cycle?

This week's sudden restrictions on high-skill immigration to the United States will severely harm US innovation and productivity.

That doesn't even slightly suggest that US workers aren't 'good enough'.

I spoke with the brilliant @hakyungkim.bsky.social of @financialtimes.com —> on.ft.com/3IB6gO5

Thanks for speaking with me!

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Trump promised that tariffs would lead to a big increase in US production at the expense of imports, and at the same time generate enormous tax revenues. Critics replied that it had to be one or the other. So far, revenues are the clear winner. w/ @theboysmithy.ft.com @robarmstrong.bsky.social

The Fed’s task looks like it is becoming more difficult as the emerging stagflationary picture becomes harder to ignore. Can looser monetary policy (as financial markets wish for) increase job growth without pushing prices higher?

Long-dated bond yields across developed markets are reaching multiyear highs. Deficits are large and supply is heavy. Are we in the start of a doom loop between long-dated yields and sovereign borrowing costs?

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