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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 7d

Small online sellers, however, are still a tiny market:

Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 7d

Brits are buying a lot more electrical appliances (replacement cycle) as well as from e-commerce platforms. Independent food shops are also growing more than supermarkets, despite inflation.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

Full report is available here ⤵️

Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

The direction of travel will depend on the Chancellor’s choices: a supportive Budget could help bring relief to households, while extra business costs risk prolonging the squeeze.

Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

However, further tax rises, especially on consumer-facing businesses, could keep #inflation stubbornly high, with food inflation potentially staying above 5% well into next year.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

⚖️ Moving forward, all eyes are on the Autumn #Budget (26th November). If no new business taxes are introduced, shop price inflation is expected to plateau and gradually ease into 2026, as global commodity prices settle and supply chains stabilise.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

🌐 FAO Food Price Index is up 6.9% year-on-year, with meat, sugar, and vegetable oils leading. Dairy prices fell month-on-month but remain 16% higher than last year. Oil markets remain sensitive to global supply and demand shifts.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

🌍 Global commodity prices edged up, with metals and select food items seeing sharp rises. Oil prices fell slightly, averaging $67.46/barrel, and natural gas prices continued to drop. Global food commodity prices remain volatile. ⛽🌾

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

🏷️ Non-food deflation narrowed to -0.1% (from -0.8% in August). DIY, gardening, and hardware saw price rises, while electricals, clothing, and home entertainment remained in deflation. Promotions continue to drive down prices in some sub-categories.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

🍏 Food inflation held steady at 4.2%, unchanged from August, but still above the 3-month average. Fresh food inflation remained at 4.1%, while ambient food stayed at 4.2%. Dairy and beef prices remain high, but wholesale dairy costs are now falling notably. 🥛🥩

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

Headline shop price inflation rose to 1.4% year-on-year, up from 0.9% in August (the highest since February 2024). Month-on-month, prices increased by 0.2%. 📊

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 8d

🛍️📈 Highest shop price inflation in 18 months

Today we published the latest @britishretail.bsky.social – NIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering September 2025.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 9d

I had maintenance grants when I did my course from 2014-17. Even still I'll never pay off the debt (absent a windfall or much higher-paying job), although do intend to pay off PGL (much lower principal). It's a waiting game for when the write-off comes, which is fortunately only 30 years for me.

Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 21d

Food inflation hit 5.1%, which is the highest since January 2024. I'm expecting this to head towards the 6% mark by year-end. Other retail categories remain subdued with e.g. clothing and footwear prices flat vs a year ago.

Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 21d

Inflation largely unchanged, last month. Services inflation ticked down to 4.7%, but goods inflation reached its highest since October 2023.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 22d

Yes 100%. Stealth taxes eventually become really obvious in the most ludicrous of ways.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 22d

Fiscal drag means that the state pension over 2025/26 is just under £100 away from being taxable.

a little girl is sitting in a car seat and making a funny face .

ALT: a little girl is sitting in a car seat and making a funny face .

media.tenor.com

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 22d

The UK aggregate numbers are a bit hard to square with a declining number of payrolled employees (SA). In Aug we had ~127k fewer employees than a year ago... ~-130k if we look at the comparable June figure. The increase is also mainly coming from employee jobs, not self-employed.

Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 22d

But inflation means that real wage growth is definitely taking a battering, and we're now back to the rather slow growth witnessed in the middle of 2023.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 22d

The number of retail jobs continues to fall according to the Workforce Jobs dataset, and on the four-quarter average measure, we're at 2.78 million, close to 100k fewer jobs than a year ago. That seemingly contrasts with the UK overall where there are 276k more jobs.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 22d

But inflation means that real wage growth is definitely taking a battering, and we're now back to the rather slow growth witnessed in the middle of 2023.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 22d

Regular pay growth did ease off in the most recent period, but we're seeing the first acceleration (on 3-month average measure) in median earnings (PAYE dataset) since the start of the year.

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · Aug 27

So like VBA or openpyxl?

The race for excel AI agents: Here's what to know

YouTube video by CNBC Television

youtube.com

Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · Aug 26

📆 Looking ahead, food inflation could climb further, potentially reaching 6% by year-end if wholesale pressures persist. Non-food should stay more subdued, but the broader return of retail inflation is firmly in play. ⚖️

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · Aug 26

💷 Real wages are still positive, but rising housing, utility and grocery costs are placing pressure on discretionary incomes. Shoppers are leaning heavily on loyalty schemes, promotions, and value ranges to make their £ go further. 🛒

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · Aug 26

🌍 Commodity markets remain volatile, although eased this month. Coffee and cocoa prices remain historically high, and oil-based goods continue to face inflationary pressure. Global oil prices fell somewhat in addition to natural gas.

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