Daryl Fairweather ⛅
@hatethegamebook.com
Author and Chief Economist at Redfin. Get my book Hate the Game: Economic Cheat Codes for Life, Love, and Work out now!
HateTheGameBook.com
HateTheGameBook.com
DOJ subpoenas the Fed. 🚨
If the Fed loses independence to political and legal pressure, investors flee the US.
This will result in:
💸 devalued dollar
📈 higher inflation
🏠 higher mortgage rates
Watch the video for a breakdown of what's happening and why you should care.
If the Fed loses independence to political and legal pressure, investors flee the US.
This will result in:
💸 devalued dollar
📈 higher inflation
🏠 higher mortgage rates
Watch the video for a breakdown of what's happening and why you should care.
January 12, 2026 at 6:20 PM
DOJ subpoenas the Fed. 🚨
If the Fed loses independence to political and legal pressure, investors flee the US.
This will result in:
💸 devalued dollar
📈 higher inflation
🏠 higher mortgage rates
Watch the video for a breakdown of what's happening and why you should care.
If the Fed loses independence to political and legal pressure, investors flee the US.
This will result in:
💸 devalued dollar
📈 higher inflation
🏠 higher mortgage rates
Watch the video for a breakdown of what's happening and why you should care.
Financial engineering cannot fix a physical shortage.
Whether it's portable mortgages or buying MBS, the new proposals miss the root cause: We simply aren't building enough homes where people most want to live. 🏘️
Whether it's portable mortgages or buying MBS, the new proposals miss the root cause: We simply aren't building enough homes where people most want to live. 🏘️
January 9, 2026 at 6:19 PM
Financial engineering cannot fix a physical shortage.
Whether it's portable mortgages or buying MBS, the new proposals miss the root cause: We simply aren't building enough homes where people most want to live. 🏘️
Whether it's portable mortgages or buying MBS, the new proposals miss the root cause: We simply aren't building enough homes where people most want to live. 🏘️
Many economists doubted AI until it hit their workflows. Now, tools like Claude Code do weeks of analysis in hours. As analysis becomes cheap, the real value shifts to novel ideas and gathering unique, proprietary data. (Video inspired by #EconSky)
January 8, 2026 at 9:51 PM
Many economists doubted AI until it hit their workflows. Now, tools like Claude Code do weeks of analysis in hours. As analysis becomes cheap, the real value shifts to novel ideas and gathering unique, proprietary data. (Video inspired by #EconSky)
Add housing to the list of economic indicators where men are lagging.
While women heads of household have nearly recovered their pre-2008 homeownership rates, men remain down a massive 7.7 percentage points.
(Chart created with help from Claude)
While women heads of household have nearly recovered their pre-2008 homeownership rates, men remain down a massive 7.7 percentage points.
(Chart created with help from Claude)
January 8, 2026 at 4:51 PM
Add housing to the list of economic indicators where men are lagging.
While women heads of household have nearly recovered their pre-2008 homeownership rates, men remain down a massive 7.7 percentage points.
(Chart created with help from Claude)
While women heads of household have nearly recovered their pre-2008 homeownership rates, men remain down a massive 7.7 percentage points.
(Chart created with help from Claude)
Trump says he will ban large investors from buying single family homes, but a ban is misguided.
See what I wrote about corporate bans for Forbes last year:
See what I wrote about corporate bans for Forbes last year:
January 7, 2026 at 6:38 PM
Trump says he will ban large investors from buying single family homes, but a ban is misguided.
See what I wrote about corporate bans for Forbes last year:
See what I wrote about corporate bans for Forbes last year:
Is disaster capitalism taking over wildfire impacted neighborhoods? Redfin data shows investors bought 40% of lots in wildfire-hit LA areas.
To stop displacement, we need Community Land Trusts to keep housing affordable. Watch this video & read my article for Forbes.
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To stop displacement, we need Community Land Trusts to keep housing affordable. Watch this video & read my article for Forbes.
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January 7, 2026 at 5:55 PM
Is disaster capitalism taking over wildfire impacted neighborhoods? Redfin data shows investors bought 40% of lots in wildfire-hit LA areas.
To stop displacement, we need Community Land Trusts to keep housing affordable. Watch this video & read my article for Forbes.
.
To stop displacement, we need Community Land Trusts to keep housing affordable. Watch this video & read my article for Forbes.
.
The 2.7% inflation print is misleading. 🚫 Missing data due to the shutdown was assumed to be 0%, skewing results downward. This fishy🐟 data likely won't drop mortgage rates. As Redfin's Chief Economist, I'm waiting for December numbers for the real story. 👇
December 18, 2025 at 6:44 PM
The 2.7% inflation print is misleading. 🚫 Missing data due to the shutdown was assumed to be 0%, skewing results downward. This fishy🐟 data likely won't drop mortgage rates. As Redfin's Chief Economist, I'm waiting for December numbers for the real story. 👇
They say too many jobs went to Black workers after George Floyd's murder in 2020. But Black unemployment surged during the lockdowns, so Black people were only recovering shutdown job losses in 2021 & 2022.
But some people see a Black person with a job, and get so angry, they can't read a chart.
But some people see a Black person with a job, and get so angry, they can't read a chart.
December 17, 2025 at 10:17 PM
They say too many jobs went to Black workers after George Floyd's murder in 2020. But Black unemployment surged during the lockdowns, so Black people were only recovering shutdown job losses in 2021 & 2022.
But some people see a Black person with a job, and get so angry, they can't read a chart.
But some people see a Black person with a job, and get so angry, they can't read a chart.
Applying for jobs and hearing nothing back? 😩
It's not you it's the economy. We are in a hiring recession.
In this video, I explain:
- Why this hits new grads hardest.
- The impact on wage negotiation.
- Why it’s time to think like an entrepreneur.
It's not you it's the economy. We are in a hiring recession.
In this video, I explain:
- Why this hits new grads hardest.
- The impact on wage negotiation.
- Why it’s time to think like an entrepreneur.
December 17, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Applying for jobs and hearing nothing back? 😩
It's not you it's the economy. We are in a hiring recession.
In this video, I explain:
- Why this hits new grads hardest.
- The impact on wage negotiation.
- Why it’s time to think like an entrepreneur.
It's not you it's the economy. We are in a hiring recession.
In this video, I explain:
- Why this hits new grads hardest.
- The impact on wage negotiation.
- Why it’s time to think like an entrepreneur.
Is the economy crashing or booming? 📉📈
November unemployment rose to 4.6%.
The Optimist sees real wage growth.
The Pessimist sees recession signals.
The truth is likely in the middle.
As Redfin’s Chief Economist, here’s the silver lining: A softening economy pushes interest rates down for homebuyers
November unemployment rose to 4.6%.
The Optimist sees real wage growth.
The Pessimist sees recession signals.
The truth is likely in the middle.
As Redfin’s Chief Economist, here’s the silver lining: A softening economy pushes interest rates down for homebuyers
December 16, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Is the economy crashing or booming? 📉📈
November unemployment rose to 4.6%.
The Optimist sees real wage growth.
The Pessimist sees recession signals.
The truth is likely in the middle.
As Redfin’s Chief Economist, here’s the silver lining: A softening economy pushes interest rates down for homebuyers
November unemployment rose to 4.6%.
The Optimist sees real wage growth.
The Pessimist sees recession signals.
The truth is likely in the middle.
As Redfin’s Chief Economist, here’s the silver lining: A softening economy pushes interest rates down for homebuyers
Is the "Low Hire, Low Fire" labor market killing productivity? 📉 Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather explains why the Federal Reserve might NOT cut interest rates next week—and how an AI Bubble is complicating everything. 🫧
December 5, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Is the "Low Hire, Low Fire" labor market killing productivity? 📉 Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather explains why the Federal Reserve might NOT cut interest rates next week—and how an AI Bubble is complicating everything. 🫧
Throwback to my 2012 Becker Friedman Institute talk.
Proof that getting a PhD doesn't have to age you.
Proof that getting a PhD doesn't have to age you.
December 3, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Throwback to my 2012 Becker Friedman Institute talk.
Proof that getting a PhD doesn't have to age you.
Proof that getting a PhD doesn't have to age you.
Prediction 3: Home Sales Will Rise 3%
We predict that sales of existing homes will end 2026 up 3% from 2025, with sales coming in at an annualized rate of 4.2 million.
We predict that sales of existing homes will end 2026 up 3% from 2025, with sales coming in at an annualized rate of 4.2 million.
December 3, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Prediction 3: Home Sales Will Rise 3%
We predict that sales of existing homes will end 2026 up 3% from 2025, with sales coming in at an annualized rate of 4.2 million.
We predict that sales of existing homes will end 2026 up 3% from 2025, with sales coming in at an annualized rate of 4.2 million.
Prediction 2: Homebuying Affordability Will Improve As Wages Grow Faster Than Prices
This is the turning point. It won't be an instant fix for affordability, but the gap between wages and housing costs will finally start to close.
This is the turning point. It won't be an instant fix for affordability, but the gap between wages and housing costs will finally start to close.
December 3, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Prediction 2: Homebuying Affordability Will Improve As Wages Grow Faster Than Prices
This is the turning point. It won't be an instant fix for affordability, but the gap between wages and housing costs will finally start to close.
This is the turning point. It won't be an instant fix for affordability, but the gap between wages and housing costs will finally start to close.
Prediction 1: Mortgage Rates Will Dip to Low-6% Range, One Factor Improving Affordability
Mortgage rates will continue their slow slide but remain high relative to the pandemic era.
The 30-year fixed rate will average 6.3% for the entire year, down from its 2025 average of 6.6%.
Mortgage rates will continue their slow slide but remain high relative to the pandemic era.
The 30-year fixed rate will average 6.3% for the entire year, down from its 2025 average of 6.6%.
December 3, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Prediction 1: Mortgage Rates Will Dip to Low-6% Range, One Factor Improving Affordability
Mortgage rates will continue their slow slide but remain high relative to the pandemic era.
The 30-year fixed rate will average 6.3% for the entire year, down from its 2025 average of 6.6%.
Mortgage rates will continue their slow slide but remain high relative to the pandemic era.
The 30-year fixed rate will average 6.3% for the entire year, down from its 2025 average of 6.6%.
Redfin just finalized our 2026 Housing Market Predictions.
We are calling the year ahead "The Great Housing Reset."
It won’t be a crash, and it won’t be a boom. It is the beginning of a long, slow recovery where the math finally starts to change.
We are calling the year ahead "The Great Housing Reset."
It won’t be a crash, and it won’t be a boom. It is the beginning of a long, slow recovery where the math finally starts to change.
December 3, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Redfin just finalized our 2026 Housing Market Predictions.
We are calling the year ahead "The Great Housing Reset."
It won’t be a crash, and it won’t be a boom. It is the beginning of a long, slow recovery where the math finally starts to change.
We are calling the year ahead "The Great Housing Reset."
It won’t be a crash, and it won’t be a boom. It is the beginning of a long, slow recovery where the math finally starts to change.
Climate risk scores aren't just useful to homebuyers, they can help homeowners too. That's one reason why Redfin is keeping climate scores on the Redfin app and website.
December 2, 2025 at 10:29 PM
Climate risk scores aren't just useful to homebuyers, they can help homeowners too. That's one reason why Redfin is keeping climate scores on the Redfin app and website.
Zillow dropped climate risk scores. Redfin kept them.
Why? Our research shows these scores are useful to homebuyers.
Ideally, we'd have information on rising insurance costs. But until insurance disclosure rules change, we will continue to provide the best info available.
Why? Our research shows these scores are useful to homebuyers.
Ideally, we'd have information on rising insurance costs. But until insurance disclosure rules change, we will continue to provide the best info available.
December 2, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Zillow dropped climate risk scores. Redfin kept them.
Why? Our research shows these scores are useful to homebuyers.
Ideally, we'd have information on rising insurance costs. But until insurance disclosure rules change, we will continue to provide the best info available.
Why? Our research shows these scores are useful to homebuyers.
Ideally, we'd have information on rising insurance costs. But until insurance disclosure rules change, we will continue to provide the best info available.
During the foreclosure crisis researchers (including me) found that many homeowners started missing housing payments after an unexpected medical event. This has me worried about what could happen to the housing market if ACA subsidies go away.
November 25, 2025 at 8:43 PM
During the foreclosure crisis researchers (including me) found that many homeowners started missing housing payments after an unexpected medical event. This has me worried about what could happen to the housing market if ACA subsidies go away.
U.S. home delistings surged 28% in Sept according to new Redfin data. 85k sellers pulled listings rather than cut prices amid high rates. FL & TX are seeing the most delistings. It’s a standoff: buyers can't afford to buy and sellers won't drop prices, keeping the housing market frozen.
November 25, 2025 at 5:50 PM
U.S. home delistings surged 28% in Sept according to new Redfin data. 85k sellers pulled listings rather than cut prices amid high rates. FL & TX are seeing the most delistings. It’s a standoff: buyers can't afford to buy and sellers won't drop prices, keeping the housing market frozen.
If you are looking for a present 🎁 for a college or early-career family member or friend, consider gifting my book: Hate the Game: Economic Cheat Codes for Life, Love and Work.
Steven Levitt called it "Fabulous"
HateTheGameBook.com
Steven Levitt called it "Fabulous"
HateTheGameBook.com
November 23, 2025 at 5:34 PM
If you are looking for a present 🎁 for a college or early-career family member or friend, consider gifting my book: Hate the Game: Economic Cheat Codes for Life, Love and Work.
Steven Levitt called it "Fabulous"
HateTheGameBook.com
Steven Levitt called it "Fabulous"
HateTheGameBook.com
Is the AI bubble about to burst? Probably not because high interest rates are keeping the bubble from getting too big. However, if the Fed were to accelerate rate cuts, the bubble could over-inflate and burst in a way that takes down the economy. And this is probably giving the Fed some pause.
November 21, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Is the AI bubble about to burst? Probably not because high interest rates are keeping the bubble from getting too big. However, if the Fed were to accelerate rate cuts, the bubble could over-inflate and burst in a way that takes down the economy. And this is probably giving the Fed some pause.
Rural home prices are up 61% since the pandemic, outpacing urban areas. Why? Remote work is driving demand, but limited supply is pricing out locals. According to Redfin, you now need a $74k income to afford a rural home—double the pre-pandemic requirement.
November 21, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Rural home prices are up 61% since the pandemic, outpacing urban areas. Why? Remote work is driving demand, but limited supply is pricing out locals. According to Redfin, you now need a $74k income to afford a rural home—double the pre-pandemic requirement.
Local control limits housing supply. The fix? State-level reform. From CA’s ADUs to zoning changes in MT & FL, we’re seeing bipartisan progress on abundant housing.
November 18, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Local control limits housing supply. The fix? State-level reform. From CA’s ADUs to zoning changes in MT & FL, we’re seeing bipartisan progress on abundant housing.