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Zeke Hausfather

@hausfath.bsky.social

38K followers 320 following 1.8K posts

"A tireless chronicler and commentator on all things climate" -NYTimes. Climate research lead @stripe, writer @CarbonBrief, scientist @BerkeleyEarth, IPCC/NCA5 author. Substack: https://theclimatebrink.substack.com/ Twitter: @hausfath

theclimatebrink.substack.com

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · Jun 30

Is global warming accelerating? Over at The Climate Brink I argue that the consilience of evidence from surface temperatures, climate models, forcing changes, ocean heat content, and earth energy imbalance all point toward yes: www.theclimatebrink....

The great acceleration debate

Why the consilience of evidence points toward acceleration

www.theclimatebrink.com

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Reposted by Zeke Hausfather

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 7h

Koonin spending an entire WSJ column criticizing @nationalacademies.org’s report for not being a review of his DOE climate contrarian report when (1) to my knowledge, the Academies have never reviewed a gov’t report without being asked (though such an independent review, or comparable, is necessary…

Opinion | Another Tale of Climate Change Bias

The government should stop funding the National Academies’ climate studies until they shed the political conformity.

www.wsj.com

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 14h

You can't reduce fossil fuel use until you at least meet global demand increases. The latter is necessarily a step toward the former.

And plenty of individual countries have reduced fossil fuel use via more renewables!

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 14h

Hydroelectricity remains the largest source of renewable generation, though virtually all of the growth in renewables over the past five years has come from solar and wind.

Solar has grown particularly fast and on track to surpass wind generation in the next year.

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 14h

Renewables (primarily solar and wind) have grown dramatically over the past five years while other electricity sources have been relatively flat. Renewables are on track to generate more electricity than coal in 2025 (and already have over H1 of the year):

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 1d

Reminds me of when we first published Berkeley Earth and found it more or less independently validated NOAA's homogenization of US temperature records:

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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 2d

The @metoffice.gov.uk use weather station observations to reconstruct changes in UK average temperature since 1884.

@copernicusecmwf.bsky.social produce the ERA5 reanalysis which reconstructs global weather every hour back to 1950 using a weather forecast model.

Their estimates agree. Just sayin'.

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 1d

And here is the percentage of the world's land area setting a new all-time monthly maximum temperature record in each decade:

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 1d

Around 78% of the world has seen all-time maximum monthly temperature records set since the year 2000, with 38% set in past five years alone. In a new analysis over at The Climate Brink I take a look at where and when records were set: www.theclimatebrink....

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 2d

Met office and Berkeley Earth estimates were pretty spot on. Others were a tad low but the result will be well within error bars.

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 4d

No necessarily. It’s quite possible that 2026 will be a bit cooler than 2025, particularly if La Niña conditions continue to develop; we will need to wait and see!

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 4d

September 2025 was the third warmest September on record at 1.47C above preindustrial levels in ERA5, behind only the prior two years (2023 and 2024).

With 9 months of the year now in, I estimate 2025 will approximately tie with 2023 for the second warmest year on record at ~1.48C.

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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 5d

"God will ask us if we have cultivated and cared for the world that he created for the benefit of all and for future generations, and if we have taken care of our brothers and sisters - what will be our answer, my dear friends?"

Pope Leo hits out at critics of global warming

In his first major statement on climate change, the pontiff criticises those who minimise climate change.

www.bbc.com

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Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 5d

My latest on The Climate Brink:

Is this the most embarrassing error in the DOE Climate Working Group Report?

The DOE CWG authors confuse detection and attribution with emergence.

Is this the most embarrassing error in the DOE Climate Working Group Report?

mistaking detection for emergence

www.theclimatebrink.com

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Reposted by Zeke Hausfather

Dr. Crystal A. Kolden @pyrogeog.bsky.social · 5d

Published today: our new paper showing a 44-year trend of increasing global wildfire disasters (fatalities and economic losses) due to climate change-induced extreme weather. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Climate-linked escalation of societally disastrous wildfires

Climate change and land mismanagement are creating increasingly fire-prone built and natural environments. However, despite worsening fire seasons, evidence is lacking globally for trends in socially ...

www.science.org

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 6d

I’m using the latest calibrated constrained ensemble (so that might be where differences are coming from), and I’m perturbing an underlying scenario (SSP2-4.5) by 40 GtCO2 and differencing that from an unperturbed scenario, if that helps.

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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 7d

A bunch of toxic LA NIMBYs are whining about SB 79, the amazing housing bill the CA legislature passed recently.

It's on the governor's desk, and reportedly he's getting cold feet. Hey @gavinnewsom.bsky.social, please have some spine on the most important issue in your state. Just sign it.

Homeowners denounce SB 79 vote - Beverly Press & Park Labrea News

Legislation awaits governor’s signature

beverlypress.com

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 7d

The relative flattening of CO2 emissions over the last decade is probably the most clearly visible indicator here...

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 7d

Yep, while there is a growing literature on emissions and climate outcomes under current policy scenarios (and we can more firmly rule out things like 5x more coal by 2100 globally), current policies represent neither a ceiling nor floor on future emissions: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 7d

I’m partial to this one from my 2022 Nature piece with @climatefran.bsky.social: www.nature.com/articles/d41...

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Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 8d

Another expert review of the science behind the endangerment finding, this time from health professionals.

they conclude that CO2 emissions "pose a clear and indisputable danger to human health and well-being."

drive.google.com/fil...

This Expert Working Group on Climate Change and Health in the United States comprises 114
scientists with experience researching various dimensions of the health effects of climate
change. We are submitting this public comment in response to the proposed reconsideration of
the Endangerment Finding and Greenhouse Gas Vehicle Standards. Our overall conclusion is
that EPA is incorrect in its assessment of uncertainties in the 2009 Endangerment Finding
as a reason to reconsider the rule, given that the scientific evidence since that time
reduces the uncertainty regarding health harms from climate change stemming from
greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions, by altering the climate and
disrupting earth systems, pose a clear and indisputable danger to human health and
well-being.

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 8d

The AR7 will include both emissions pathways consistent with current policies and a more pessimistic pathway where policies in place today are reversed and clean energy expansion is restricted.

Reposted by Zeke Hausfather

Kate Marvel @drkatemarvel.bsky.social · 9d

my takeaway from climate week nyc is that "climate storytelling" is a little too much "we must reimagine our deepest souls in relationship to mother nature and the moral abyss of the polycrisis into which we must now stare" and not enough "ok but get a heat pump"

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 8d

It’s analogous to current policies, but 2050 temperatures are similar (a few tenths of a degree warmer) in a worst case SSP3-7.0 emissions scenario. It’s later in the century that they more substantially diverge.

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Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 8d

SSP3-7.0 is ~0.1C warmer by 2050 but not that meaningfully different. It diverges more late century.

Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 9d

I, um, do? bsky.app/profile/haus...

Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social · 14d

In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong".

Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!

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