Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 5d

Exciting week at @kofeth.bsky.social hosting #Uzbekistan’s Center for #Economic #Research and Reforms! 🚀

Deep dive into #macro #nowcasting & short-term #forecasting: DFM, MIDAS, ML, #data, R coding for #GDP nowcasts.

1 2

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 9d

Global #growth to #slow in H2 2024, but #rebound in 2025 on policy easing, rising real wages & #German fiscal push for #Europe.

#GDP forecasts (%): 2025/26: 🇺🇸1.7/1.8, 🇨🇳4.9/4.5, 🇪🇺1.5/1.6, 🇩🇪0.3/1.2, 🇬🇧1.4/1.3, 🇫🇷0.7/1.1, 🇮🇹0.6/0.8, 🌍2.8/2.7.

kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...

@kofeth.bsky.social

3

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 12d

Great meeting Dimitris Georgarakos (@ecb.europa.eu) at @kofeth.bsky.social

#Research #seminar: #Randomized #scenario #survey #experiment shows: #geopolitical #risk → #households expect negative effects on #finances → cut #consumption.

With Gorodnichenko, Coibion & Kenny: www.nber.org/papers/w34195

1

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 12d

Great pre-event for #KOF Fall 2025 #Forecast!

Interesting #exchange with journalists from Tages-Anzeiger, Finanz und Wirtschaft, and AWP.

Jan-Egbert Sturm & Hans Gersbach presenting on #Swiss & #international #trade, & how to react to recent #Trump #tariffs.

kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-...

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · 16d

The #NowcastingLab presents the latest #GDP #Forecast for #Brazil! 📊

By Lucas Gabriel Martins de Oliveira (#macroeconomic #forecasting).

Check it out: nowcastinglab.org/assets/brazi...

More background: blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/09/22/b...

nowcastinglab.org

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · Sep 1

#International #macroeconomy at #crossroads: Pressing issues:

#Europe: Mixed signals from latest #indicators. Will #recovery stall before it turns into #upswing?

#USA: #Labor market shows weakness. Higher #tariffs & tighter #immigration put pressure on #costs & #prices. Run out of steam?

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · Sep 1

The #holiday season is behind us, and many of us are settling back into #work. Wishing you a #productive and #rewarding finish to the year!

1

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · Jul 11

News from #KOF #Nowcasting Lab (nowcastinglab.org):

Reached unexpected "milestone": our #computing processes consumed so many #MATLAB #licenses that entire system came to a halt.

Full story on our #blog:

blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/07/11/h...

@kofeth.bsky.social @mathworks.bsky.social

How the Nowcasting Lab Consumed 10,000 MATLAB Licenses

In a recent and rather unexpected turn of events, the Nowcasting Lab managed to use up all available MATLAB licenses at ETH Zurich—approximately 10,000 in total. As a result, MATLAB license allocat…

blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com

1 1

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · Jun 6

#KOF Summer 2025 #Forecast round has started. #Global #macroeconomic #outlook on Monday & #Swiss #economic outlook today.

Top topic (again): How does #trade #conflict affect the #economy in short & long run?

@kofeth.bsky.social

Pictured below: Dr. Alexander Rathke, a master of forecasting

2 2

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · May 16

More impressions of the #Meeting of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes this week in #Oslo at Statistics Norway.

1

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · May 16

Impressions from Day 1 of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes #Meeting in #Oslo at Statistics Norway

Look at the #employment rate of refugees in Poland as compared to #Switzerland and #Germany!

Presentation by Marcin Klucznik (Polish Economic Institute).

@kofeth.bsky.social

2

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · May 13

#Meeting of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes this week in #Oslo (May, 15-16), hosted by #StatisticsNorway.

Two days packed with #presentations & #discussions on the #macroeconomic #outlook for #Europe and selected structural topics.

@kofeth.bsky.social

1

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · May 9

#Forecasting #NACE Activities in the #Eurostat Structural Business Statistics

blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/05/09/n...

Excited to work, joint with Maurizio Daniele, as Experts on behalf of @ec.europa.eu Competence Centre on Composite #Indicators and Scoreboards (JRC-COIN).

#eu #kof #ethz

1 1

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · May 2

Another wonderful workshop last week:

#Machine #Learning #Economic #Forecasting and #Nowcasting Workshop

at #Copenhagen Business School organized by @striaukas.bsky.social

Presented on:

An Observation-Driven Mixed-Frequency VAR
Model With Closed-Form Solution

drive.google.com/file/d/1CXzK...

1 2

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · May 2

Great to have participated in the

#Macro & #Financial #Econometrics Workshop

at U #Heidelberg organized by Christian Conrad

#research #economics #forecasting @kofeth.bsky.social

Photo impressions below:

1 4

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · Apr 22

Dan Murphy (danpmurphy.com) at @kofeth.bsky.social BB Seminar:

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

#Housing and non-housing #consumption are complements.
#Households in smaller homes save more.
Denser countries → higher #saving, lower #rates.

Thought-provoking #research!

@ethzurich.bsky.social

1

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · Apr 4

#KOF #International #Forecasts Spring 2025:

kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...

#US will grow below potential as #consumer #spending & #investment weaken due to #tariffs & #uncertainty. #Europe eyes #upswing despite tariff threat; #Germany sees #fiscal boost from end 2025. #Risks from tariff #escalation.

1 3

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · Mar 25

Wonderful #Conference on #Real-Time #Data Analysis, #Methods, and Applications in #Prague!!

Thank you Czech National Bank and CERGE-EI for the local organization.

drive.google.com/file/d/1sIZ9...

real-time-economics.org/wp-content/u...

#economics #research #macroeconomics
@kofeth.bsky.social

1 4

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · Mar 10

#Macroeconomic #forecast process at @kofeth.bsky.social started with discussion of #international #economic #outlook.

One key topic: #Fiscal #stimulus plans in #Germany. How much? When? #Multiplier size? --- Will take a while to materialize, but then #growth effects will be strong temporarily.

1

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · Mar 7

Interesting #Macro & #Finance #Roundtable by Anjeza Kadilli (HEG) and Reto Cueni (Vontobel)

Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank) presenting on:

Implications of #Geoeconomic #Fragmentation for Bystanders

cepr.org/publications...

Good discussion among the participants!

#research #policy #geoeconomics

2

Reposted by Heiner Mikosch

KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zürich @kofeth.bsky.social · Mar 5

"Wir könnten jetzt in einen regelrechten Handelskrieg geraten" warnt KOF-Ökonom Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social im Beitrag der Tagesschau @SRF angesichts der von den USA erhobenen Zölle gegen Kanada und Mexiko www.srf.ch/play/tv/-/vi...

Zölle gegen Kanada und Mexiko – Trump startet Handelskrieg - Tagesschau - Play SRF

Die von US-Präsident Donald Trump angekündigten Importzölle auf Waren aus Mexiko und Kanada sind in Kraft getreten. Jetzt droht ein nordamerikanischer Handelskonflikt von unbestimmter Dauer und ungewi...

www.srf.ch

1 1

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · Mar 3

#Research talk by @iyotzov.bsky.social (BoE) at @kofeth.bsky.social:

How Curvy is the Phillips Curve? - Convex, but only for high #inflation #firms (cf. figure).

www.nber.org/papers/w33234

Thanx @lukashack.bsky.social & @eneabaselgia.bsky.social!

Pic: Ivan, Remo Gurtner & @hmikosch.bsky.social:

3 6

Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social · Feb 12

Mein erster Post auf #Bluesky:

Was ist von Donald Trumps "Zolldrohstrategie" zu halten?

Hier ein Statement dazu in #SRF 10 vor 10 letzte Woche:
www.srf.ch/play/tv/10-v...

Ein knappes Textmemo zum Thema:
drive.google.com/file/d/1_FTb...

#Zoll #USA #EU #Trump #KOF #ETHZ

10 vor 10 - Auswirkungen von US-Zöllen und Gegenzöllen - Play SRF

US-Importzölle für Güter aus Mexico sind vorerst um einen Monat aufgeschoben. Wie reagiert die EU auf angekündigte US-Zölle und welche Auswirkungen drohen der Schweiz?

www.srf.ch

2