John Horvick
@horvick.bsky.social
450 followers 160 following 530 posts
DHM Research, Senior Vice President
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horvick.bsky.social
Oregon's October registration totals are out today from the Secretary of State. Here are the monthly changes by party.

Total +6,750
Non-affiliated +8,158
Ind. Party of Oregon +582
Republican +223
Other +164
Democrat -2,377
horvick.bsky.social
I can't help but think about the over-analysis of Glenn Youngkin in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. Then the theory was his focus on schools and "critical race theory."

Yet in 9 of the last 10 elections, the party opposite the president has won. Thermostatic public opinion explains a lot.
horvick.bsky.social
Maybe a momentary glitch, but this is what I'm (not) getting from the Census website.
horvick.bsky.social
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DHM Research recently asked Oregonians if they believe people can be trusted or if you can't be too careful dealing with people.

Most (56%) said you can't be too careful.

The least trusting Oregonians are young people and those with less education and lower incomes.
horvick.bsky.social
This month, DHM Research surveyed Oregonians about their friends.

11% of Oregonians reported having zero close friends, and 37% reported having two or fewer.

The typical Oregonian would like to have more close friends than they currently do.
horvick.bsky.social
Gallup released its monthly update on what Americans say is the most important problem facing the country.

Economic 24% (-10, and lowest since Jan '22)
Gov't/poor leadership 28% (+4)
Immigration 14% (--)
Unifying the county 10% (+4)
...
Elections 4% (-1)
Abortion <1% (-1)
Climate <1% (-1)
horvick.bsky.social
In DHM Research's September survey, we asked Oregonians when the last time they held a baby was. For 59% it's been more than a year.
horvick.bsky.social
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DHM Research has found these same beliefs in Oregon.
horvick.bsky.social
Via @gallup.com, Americans' rating of the quality of K-12 education in the United States reached a new low.

Yet, parents' satisfaction with the quality of education for their own children remains high and steady.
horvick.bsky.social
By my count, there are 25 local funding measures on Oregon ballots for the November election. That's a low number, even for special election years.
horvick.bsky.social
From an April 2025 DHM Research survey of Oregonians.

Which political party in Oregon do you trust more to handle the following issue: free speech

Democratic Party: 49%
Republican Party 35%
Don't know 16%
horvick.bsky.social
The importance of a college education has fallen across all groups, including party, age, and educational attainment.
horvick.bsky.social
Via @gallup.com, Americans' perception of the importance of a college education (left) has diminished at the same time K-12 enrollment is on the decline (right).
horvick.bsky.social
Oregonians report they aren't a very trusting lot, especially those who are younger.

Fewer than half (44%) of Oregonians say people can almost always/usually be trusted, while 56% say they usually/can't be too careful in dealing with people.

For those 18-29, it's 22% vs. 78%.
horvick.bsky.social
All the above, but I'd put by far the most weight on partisanship.

Unfortunately, these data are not available by party. But I'm sure if they were, the gap would be even wider.

Yet, still remarkable to me how extreme this split is now, regardless of the reasons.
horvick.bsky.social
For the last 50 years, what Americans heard about government economic policy was similar regardless of education. This started to break down during Trump's first term.

Now it has completely separated.