Output falls as inputs fall. Conditional on labor & land (Cobb–Douglas), no systematic decline in yields or output → TFP stable in short run. Soil/rooting indices show no early deterioration (sometimes mild improvements consistent with fallowing).
[12/13]

⏱️ Dynamics across countries

Near-mine farms (0–15 km) show persistent family-labor declines from t+2 onward; hired labor flat; total labor mirrors family labor. Effects attenuate with distance; pre-trends small & jointly insignificant.
[11/13]

Within 15 km: family labor −12.5 days (~16%, p<0.01); hired labor ~0 → total labor −11.4 days (p<0.01). Planted area falls, but yields/TFP don’t once conditioning on inputs. [10/13]

Below is an example of the VMPL for three hypothetical farms located at three different distance bins from a mine:

(a) before a mine opens,
(b) right after a mine opens, and
(c) 3-4 years after a mine opens. [6/13]

Another example in Tanzania's Geita region (a major gold mining region), showing changes in NDVI in the Bukombe-Mbogwe Forest Reserve:

(a) 1984, (b) 2002, (c) 2020 (Pancrace et al., 2022) [4/13]

An example of deforestation and loss of vegetation in Tanzania's Singida region (known for gold mining):

Gold mining started in 2004 in Singida, see Lameck et al., 2025 [3/13]

Mines (red) increasingly overlap with agriculture (green). Example below from Tanzania using LSMS-ISA and MinEx data. [2/13]